Severe Storms

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW MBG TO 45 W DVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507 ..WEINMAN..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-031-043-047-051-093-103-020040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS FOSTER KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH STUTSMAN WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 495 SEVERE TSTM ND 012040Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central North Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should strengthen through the afternoon as they move generally east-northeastward across parts of western and central North Dakota. Large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter appears possible with the strongest cells initially. With time, a line of thunderstorms should pose more of a wind threat, with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Garrison ND to 60 miles south of Bismarck ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 494... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MCK TO 10 ESE BUB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508 ..WEINMAN..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC001-019-035-059-061-065-073-077-079-081-083-093-099-121-125- 129-137-143-163-169-175-181-185-020040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY FILLMORE FRANKLIN FURNAS GOSPER GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS PHELPS POLK SHERMAN THAYER VALLEY WEBSTER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW MBG TO 45 W DVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507 ..WEINMAN..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-031-043-047-051-093-103-020040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS FOSTER KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH STUTSMAN WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 495 SEVERE TSTM ND 012040Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central North Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should strengthen through the afternoon as they move generally east-northeastward across parts of western and central North Dakota. Large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter appears possible with the strongest cells initially. With time, a line of thunderstorms should pose more of a wind threat, with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Garrison ND to 60 miles south of Bismarck ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 494... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1509 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1509 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 012343Z - 020115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will gradually increase as the warm front approaches and the low-level airmass destabilizes through the evening. Severe wind and hail are the predominant threats, though a tornado or two could also occur. A WW issuance will eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms are progressing eastward across NE, including a supercell that is traversing the warm frontal zone with a history of brief tornadoes. The surface warm front is expected to continue drifting northward with time as low-level warm-air advection increases in tandem with the strengthening of the low-level jet. Initially elevated buoyancy will advect over eastern NE into western IA with large, curved hodographs. The stronger, longer-lived updrafts that form should become multicellular and perhaps supercellular, capable of severe wind and hail. The tornado potential will be largely dependent on the degree of surface-based/boundary-layer destabilization can materialize this evening. A WW issuance will eventually be needed as storms across central NE impinge on the eastern bounds of Tornado Watch 496. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 41649799 41939721 42029599 41889483 41509414 40929412 40459464 40149553 40099625 40169697 40369766 41649799 Read more

MD 1508 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 496... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1508 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of south-central Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 496... Valid 012300Z - 020030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 496 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 496. All severe hazards are possible with the more dominant supercell structures this evening, especially with any storms that can anchor to the surface warm front. DISCUSSION...Scattered multicells and at least one sustained supercell have become established north of a surface warm front over south-central NE. These storms continue to progress east-northeast amid a strongly sheared and unstable airmass through evening. At the moment, most of these storms are rooted above a stable boundary layer north of the warm front. The supercell over Furnas County, NE appears anchored on or immediately north of the surface warm front, and this storm has the best potential to be surface based and produce all severe hazards. Storms south of the warm front will occur in a deep boundary layer and veered low-level flow, with severe gusts the main threat. Storms north of the front should remain elevated, accompanied by mainly a large hail threat, though a severe gust cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 39989923 40049963 40249988 40750008 41060000 41459940 41469852 41219783 40739751 40289764 40129840 39989923 Read more

MD 1507 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495... FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1507 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0544 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...Central North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495... Valid 012244Z - 020015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495 continues. SUMMARY...Gusty winds and hail are possible with convection this evening. DISCUSSION...Strongest mid-level height falls are spreading across the northern High Plains this evening in response to upstream short-wave trough. Extensive cloudiness has limited surface heating across much of ND, and low-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. Even so, a narrow corridor of pre-frontal buoyancy extends across south-central into central ND where MLCAPE values are near 1000 J/kg. Convection should continue to congeal along/ahead of the wind shift, but in the absence of meaningful supercell development, hail should generally remain below 1.5 inches. Gusty winds may be the primary concern, and generally less than 50kt. ..Darrow.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45930049 46890045 47770144 47950022 47329928 46039957 45930049 Read more

WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MHN TO 50 SE BIS. ..WEINMAN..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-075-020040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY GRANT SDC021-045-049-065-069-075-085-089-095-107-117-119-121-123-129- 020040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL EDMUNDS FAULK HUGHES HYDE JONES LYMAN MCPHERSON MELLETTE POTTER STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 494 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 011935Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The Nebraska Panhandle into Northwest Nebraska Western and Central South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initial supercell thunderstorms should pose a threat for large hail generally 1-2 inches in diameter this afternoon. As this activity spreads eastward later this afternoon and evening, it should grow upscale in more of a line/cluster, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds up to around 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Mobridge SD to 70 miles southeast of Chadron NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1506 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494... FOR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...Northern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494... Valid 012151Z - 012315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494 continues. SUMMARY...Convection should continue increasing across the northern High Plains this evening. DISCUSSION...Mid-level short-wave trough is currently progressing across eastern MT/WY, per latest water-vapor imagery. Notable synoptic front has now surged across western ND, arcing through western SD into central WY. Scattered robust convection has evolved along this boundary and the strongest storms are now growing upscale as larger clusters begin to emerge. Over the next few hours there is increasing confidence that a corridor of significant convection will materialize from Bennett County SD to east of Mobridge, coincident with a pre-frontal axis of higher buoyancy. ..Darrow.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 45249941 42910149 43370263 45770052 45249941 Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E IML TO 25 NW BBW. ..WEINMAN..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC001-019-035-041-047-059-061-063-065-073-077-079-081-083-085- 087-093-099-111-121-125-129-137-143-145-163-169-175-181-185- 012340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY CUSTER DAWSON FILLMORE FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK HOWARD KEARNEY LINCOLN MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS PHELPS POLK RED WILLOW SHERMAN THAYER VALLEY WEBSTER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 496 TORNADO NE 012055Z - 020300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Central Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should move east-northeastward along and near a warm front that will become draped across south-central Nebraska this afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes may occur with any sustained supercell, along with large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter. Severe/damaging winds may become an increasing concern if thunderstorms can grow into a small cluster later this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Mccook NE to 30 miles east southeast of Grand Island NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 494...WW 495... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MBG TO 30 NW BIS TO 25 SW MOT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..WEINMAN..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-029-031-043-047-051-055-059-065-083-085-093-103-012340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH EMMONS FOSTER KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH MCLEAN MORTON OLIVER SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1505 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1505 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...far eastern Colorado into far western Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012147Z - 012245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe gust threat may materialize this afternoon. An instance of severe hail also cannot be completely ruled out. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway along the KS/CO border, where surface temperatures have warmed to over 100 F south of a warm front. Surface dewpoints are only in the upper 50s to low 60s F, indicative of a deep, mixed boundary layer in place, with 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km. Vertical wind shear is not particularly strong (i.e. 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear), so multicell storms modes should be favored. Given the deep boundary layer and potential for evaporative cooling, at least a few severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms, and an instance of marginally severe hail cannot be completely ruled out. Overall coverage of severe is uncertain at this time. However, at least parts of eastern CO/western KS may need a WW issuance pending more favorable convective trends. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37200429 38620336 39750168 39980077 39849990 39419980 38650010 37850101 37240178 37020248 37040319 37200429 Read more

WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CDR TO 35 SW PHP TO 40 N MBG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506 ..WEINMAN..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-031-045-069-075-123-157-161-165-012340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE CHERRY DAWES GARDEN GRANT MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-021-041-045-047-049-055-065-069-071-075-085-089-095-102- 107-117-119-121-123-129-012340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CAMPBELL DEWEY EDMUNDS FALL RIVER FAULK HAAKON HUGHES HYDE JACKSON JONES LYMAN MCPHERSON MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA POTTER STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP WALWORTH Read more

MD 1504 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1504 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...southern Nebraska and northern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 012024Z - 012230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage to increase in coverage through the afternoon. All hazards will be possible including damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...A surface warm front is slowly lifting northward across northern Kansas into southern Nebraska this afternoon. The progression of this feature has lagged morning operational guidance, with widespread cloud cover and cooler temperatures continuing across much of central/northern Nebraska. Upstream of this region, a shortwave is tracking eastward along with an attendant southeastward sinking cold front. In the last hour, thunderstorms have developed near the dryline/warm front intersection near the NE/KS western border between these boundaries which is characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 1000-2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts is observed in surface objective analysis which will support discrete to semi-discrete supercell development ahead of the cold front, with potential for a tornado or two with cells near the lifting warm front where low-level vorticity can be maximized amid backed east to southeasterly low-level flow. With time, mode will likely shift to become more linear, posing an increasing threat for damaging wind, with potentially some significant 75+ mph, through the evening. A watch will be needed to cover this threat. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 41329844 40999729 40759731 40049788 39259849 39630090 39750178 40090195 41290208 41490155 41490084 41329844 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more