Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, which is likely to be effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters are probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through evening. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. By mid/late-afternoon Wednesday, potentially severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Some tornado risk may also exist near the north/south-oriented surface trough across the central High Plains including western Nebraska/eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas, where deep-layer/low-level shear will be stronger and more favorable for initial supercells. The most focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, may evolve from western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, which is likely to be effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters are probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through evening. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. By mid/late-afternoon Wednesday, potentially severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Some tornado risk may also exist near the north/south-oriented surface trough across the central High Plains including western Nebraska/eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas, where deep-layer/low-level shear will be stronger and more favorable for initial supercells. The most focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, may evolve from western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, which is likely to be effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters are probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through evening. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. By mid/late-afternoon Wednesday, potentially severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Some tornado risk may also exist near the north/south-oriented surface trough across the central High Plains including western Nebraska/eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas, where deep-layer/low-level shear will be stronger and more favorable for initial supercells. The most focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, may evolve from western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, which is likely to be effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters are probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through evening. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. By mid/late-afternoon Wednesday, potentially severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Some tornado risk may also exist near the north/south-oriented surface trough across the central High Plains including western Nebraska/eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas, where deep-layer/low-level shear will be stronger and more favorable for initial supercells. The most focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, may evolve from western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, which is likely to be effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters are probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through evening. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. By mid/late-afternoon Wednesday, potentially severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Some tornado risk may also exist near the north/south-oriented surface trough across the central High Plains including western Nebraska/eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas, where deep-layer/low-level shear will be stronger and more favorable for initial supercells. The most focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, may evolve from western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHERN IA...AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely over southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and northeast Kansas between about 2 to 9 PM CDT. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... The broad mid/upper trough from the Prairie Provinces to the Intermountain West will shift east into far northwest Ontario to the Upper Midwest by tonight. Multiple embedded shortwave impulses, some of which are convectively enhanced, will progress within and ahead of the trough. The most prominent of which for severe potential is approaching the WY Rockies, and will track across the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley by early Wednesday. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies in excess of 50 kts will amplify ahead of this impulse and spread over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley by late afternoon. ...Central KS to the Mid-MS Valley... A swath of decaying convection should be ongoing at 12Z this morning from parts of the Mid-MO Valley to the western Great Lakes. Differential boundary-layer heating amid pronounced insolation occurring to the south of morning outflow/cloud debris will yield a strengthening baroclinic zone from central KS northeastward into southeast IA. With minimal capping, renewed surface-based convection should occur in the early afternoon along this effective front. The aforementioned amplification of mid-level southwesterlies later in the day will aid in sustaining organized upscale growth, with embedded supercell and bowing structures possible. This appears to be most favored from northeast KS across northern MO and southern IA. Swaths of strong to severe gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. The northeast extent of the severe threat should abruptly diminish east of the MS River into IL, as convection eventually outpaces the north/south-oriented buoyancy plume. This should result in a progressive north-to-south weakening of the severe threat after dusk over the Mid-MS/Lower MO Valleys. ...Central/southern High Plains... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible from late afternoon into mid-evening, within a post-frontal upslope flow environment from the Raton Mesa to the Black Hills, and a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer ahead of the front in the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. A more favorable corridor for supercell potential is evident in southeast CO to southwest KS where a plume of richer low-level moisture will reside north of the trailing front. There should be some cooling near the mid-level trough to slightly steepen mid-level lapse rates for a conditional large-hail threat, in addition to severe gusts. Convection in this region should weaken after dusk. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHERN IA...AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely over southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and northeast Kansas between about 2 to 9 PM CDT. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... The broad mid/upper trough from the Prairie Provinces to the Intermountain West will shift east into far northwest Ontario to the Upper Midwest by tonight. Multiple embedded shortwave impulses, some of which are convectively enhanced, will progress within and ahead of the trough. The most prominent of which for severe potential is approaching the WY Rockies, and will track across the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley by early Wednesday. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies in excess of 50 kts will amplify ahead of this impulse and spread over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley by late afternoon. ...Central KS to the Mid-MS Valley... A swath of decaying convection should be ongoing at 12Z this morning from parts of the Mid-MO Valley to the western Great Lakes. Differential boundary-layer heating amid pronounced insolation occurring to the south of morning outflow/cloud debris will yield a strengthening baroclinic zone from central KS northeastward into southeast IA. With minimal capping, renewed surface-based convection should occur in the early afternoon along this effective front. The aforementioned amplification of mid-level southwesterlies later in the day will aid in sustaining organized upscale growth, with embedded supercell and bowing structures possible. This appears to be most favored from northeast KS across northern MO and southern IA. Swaths of strong to severe gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. The northeast extent of the severe threat should abruptly diminish east of the MS River into IL, as convection eventually outpaces the north/south-oriented buoyancy plume. This should result in a progressive north-to-south weakening of the severe threat after dusk over the Mid-MS/Lower MO Valleys. ...Central/southern High Plains... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible from late afternoon into mid-evening, within a post-frontal upslope flow environment from the Raton Mesa to the Black Hills, and a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer ahead of the front in the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. A more favorable corridor for supercell potential is evident in southeast CO to southwest KS where a plume of richer low-level moisture will reside north of the trailing front. There should be some cooling near the mid-level trough to slightly steepen mid-level lapse rates for a conditional large-hail threat, in addition to severe gusts. Convection in this region should weaken after dusk. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHERN IA...AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely over southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and northeast Kansas between about 2 to 9 PM CDT. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... The broad mid/upper trough from the Prairie Provinces to the Intermountain West will shift east into far northwest Ontario to the Upper Midwest by tonight. Multiple embedded shortwave impulses, some of which are convectively enhanced, will progress within and ahead of the trough. The most prominent of which for severe potential is approaching the WY Rockies, and will track across the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley by early Wednesday. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies in excess of 50 kts will amplify ahead of this impulse and spread over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley by late afternoon. ...Central KS to the Mid-MS Valley... A swath of decaying convection should be ongoing at 12Z this morning from parts of the Mid-MO Valley to the western Great Lakes. Differential boundary-layer heating amid pronounced insolation occurring to the south of morning outflow/cloud debris will yield a strengthening baroclinic zone from central KS northeastward into southeast IA. With minimal capping, renewed surface-based convection should occur in the early afternoon along this effective front. The aforementioned amplification of mid-level southwesterlies later in the day will aid in sustaining organized upscale growth, with embedded supercell and bowing structures possible. This appears to be most favored from northeast KS across northern MO and southern IA. Swaths of strong to severe gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. The northeast extent of the severe threat should abruptly diminish east of the MS River into IL, as convection eventually outpaces the north/south-oriented buoyancy plume. This should result in a progressive north-to-south weakening of the severe threat after dusk over the Mid-MS/Lower MO Valleys. ...Central/southern High Plains... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible from late afternoon into mid-evening, within a post-frontal upslope flow environment from the Raton Mesa to the Black Hills, and a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer ahead of the front in the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. A more favorable corridor for supercell potential is evident in southeast CO to southwest KS where a plume of richer low-level moisture will reside north of the trailing front. There should be some cooling near the mid-level trough to slightly steepen mid-level lapse rates for a conditional large-hail threat, in addition to severe gusts. Convection in this region should weaken after dusk. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHERN IA...AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely over southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and northeast Kansas between about 2 to 9 PM CDT. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... The broad mid/upper trough from the Prairie Provinces to the Intermountain West will shift east into far northwest Ontario to the Upper Midwest by tonight. Multiple embedded shortwave impulses, some of which are convectively enhanced, will progress within and ahead of the trough. The most prominent of which for severe potential is approaching the WY Rockies, and will track across the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley by early Wednesday. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies in excess of 50 kts will amplify ahead of this impulse and spread over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley by late afternoon. ...Central KS to the Mid-MS Valley... A swath of decaying convection should be ongoing at 12Z this morning from parts of the Mid-MO Valley to the western Great Lakes. Differential boundary-layer heating amid pronounced insolation occurring to the south of morning outflow/cloud debris will yield a strengthening baroclinic zone from central KS northeastward into southeast IA. With minimal capping, renewed surface-based convection should occur in the early afternoon along this effective front. The aforementioned amplification of mid-level southwesterlies later in the day will aid in sustaining organized upscale growth, with embedded supercell and bowing structures possible. This appears to be most favored from northeast KS across northern MO and southern IA. Swaths of strong to severe gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. The northeast extent of the severe threat should abruptly diminish east of the MS River into IL, as convection eventually outpaces the north/south-oriented buoyancy plume. This should result in a progressive north-to-south weakening of the severe threat after dusk over the Mid-MS/Lower MO Valleys. ...Central/southern High Plains... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible from late afternoon into mid-evening, within a post-frontal upslope flow environment from the Raton Mesa to the Black Hills, and a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer ahead of the front in the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. A more favorable corridor for supercell potential is evident in southeast CO to southwest KS where a plume of richer low-level moisture will reside north of the trailing front. There should be some cooling near the mid-level trough to slightly steepen mid-level lapse rates for a conditional large-hail threat, in addition to severe gusts. Convection in this region should weaken after dusk. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHERN IA...AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely over southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and northeast Kansas between about 2 to 9 PM CDT. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... The broad mid/upper trough from the Prairie Provinces to the Intermountain West will shift east into far northwest Ontario to the Upper Midwest by tonight. Multiple embedded shortwave impulses, some of which are convectively enhanced, will progress within and ahead of the trough. The most prominent of which for severe potential is approaching the WY Rockies, and will track across the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley by early Wednesday. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies in excess of 50 kts will amplify ahead of this impulse and spread over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley by late afternoon. ...Central KS to the Mid-MS Valley... A swath of decaying convection should be ongoing at 12Z this morning from parts of the Mid-MO Valley to the western Great Lakes. Differential boundary-layer heating amid pronounced insolation occurring to the south of morning outflow/cloud debris will yield a strengthening baroclinic zone from central KS northeastward into southeast IA. With minimal capping, renewed surface-based convection should occur in the early afternoon along this effective front. The aforementioned amplification of mid-level southwesterlies later in the day will aid in sustaining organized upscale growth, with embedded supercell and bowing structures possible. This appears to be most favored from northeast KS across northern MO and southern IA. Swaths of strong to severe gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. The northeast extent of the severe threat should abruptly diminish east of the MS River into IL, as convection eventually outpaces the north/south-oriented buoyancy plume. This should result in a progressive north-to-south weakening of the severe threat after dusk over the Mid-MS/Lower MO Valleys. ...Central/southern High Plains... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible from late afternoon into mid-evening, within a post-frontal upslope flow environment from the Raton Mesa to the Black Hills, and a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer ahead of the front in the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. A more favorable corridor for supercell potential is evident in southeast CO to southwest KS where a plume of richer low-level moisture will reside north of the trailing front. There should be some cooling near the mid-level trough to slightly steepen mid-level lapse rates for a conditional large-hail threat, in addition to severe gusts. Convection in this region should weaken after dusk. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 Read more

MD 1510 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1510 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...southeast NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020403Z - 020530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Risk for localized severe with a supercell as it moves towards the MO River through 12-1am CDT. DISCUSSION...A couple of stronger updrafts over the past hour have developed on the southern flank of a band of storms over eastern NE. Surface conditions with temperatures in the upper 70s with lower 70s dewpoints in Gage County (immediate inflow) will become less supportive near the MO River with temperatures likely holding in the lower 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints. The latest RAP forecast soundings show around 2000 J/kg SBCAPE near Beatrice with surface-based buoyancy below 250 J/kg SBCAPE near the MO River. As such, expecting the peak in storm intensity to have occurred or to occur in the immediate short term before storm intensity lessens with time. ..Smith.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX... LAT...LON 40679730 40919676 41059606 41019588 40859582 40699595 40509718 40559731 40679730 Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HSI TO 10 SSE GRI TO 25 SW OFK. WW 496 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 020300Z. ..SQUITIERI..07/02/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC035-059-081-121-125-129-143-169-185-020300- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY FILLMORE HAMILTON MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS POLK THAYER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 496 TORNADO NE 012055Z - 020300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Central Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should move east-northeastward along and near a warm front that will become draped across south-central Nebraska this afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes may occur with any sustained supercell, along with large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter. Severe/damaging winds may become an increasing concern if thunderstorms can grow into a small cluster later this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Mccook NE to 30 miles east southeast of Grand Island NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 494...WW 495... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1509 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1509 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 012343Z - 020115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will gradually increase as the warm front approaches and the low-level airmass destabilizes through the evening. Severe wind and hail are the predominant threats, though a tornado or two could also occur. A WW issuance will eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms are progressing eastward across NE, including a supercell that is traversing the warm frontal zone with a history of brief tornadoes. The surface warm front is expected to continue drifting northward with time as low-level warm-air advection increases in tandem with the strengthening of the low-level jet. Initially elevated buoyancy will advect over eastern NE into western IA with large, curved hodographs. The stronger, longer-lived updrafts that form should become multicellular and perhaps supercellular, capable of severe wind and hail. The tornado potential will be largely dependent on the degree of surface-based/boundary-layer destabilization can materialize this evening. A WW issuance will eventually be needed as storms across central NE impinge on the eastern bounds of Tornado Watch 496. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 41649799 41939721 42029599 41889483 41509414 40929412 40459464 40149553 40099625 40169697 40369766 41649799 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NE TO FAR WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms should persist for a few more hours across a portion of eastern Nebraska into far western Iowa, before diminishing tonight. ...01Z Update... Most of the severe threat across the central and northern Great Plains has diminished and this trend should largely persist through the rest of evening. One exception, where a severe wind and brief tornado threat should persist, is across eastern NE into far western IA. A leading supercell over south-central NE has recently become absorbed into a mostly non-severe QLCS. This process may yield some short-term strengthening of the severe wind threat along the south side of the QLCS amid a 45-kt low-level jet per UEX VWP data. Further increase of the low-level jet through the evening will probably maintain a threat for strong to locally severe wind gusts despite the more hostile airmass for surface-based convection near and east of the MO River, per the 00Z OAX sounding. A lone high-based supercell in east-central WY may persist east-southeast along the surface front for a couple more hours, with some potential for an addition storm or two to form after dusk. Marginal severe hail and wind will remain possible. ..Grams.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NE TO FAR WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms should persist for a few more hours across a portion of eastern Nebraska into far western Iowa, before diminishing tonight. ...01Z Update... Most of the severe threat across the central and northern Great Plains has diminished and this trend should largely persist through the rest of evening. One exception, where a severe wind and brief tornado threat should persist, is across eastern NE into far western IA. A leading supercell over south-central NE has recently become absorbed into a mostly non-severe QLCS. This process may yield some short-term strengthening of the severe wind threat along the south side of the QLCS amid a 45-kt low-level jet per UEX VWP data. Further increase of the low-level jet through the evening will probably maintain a threat for strong to locally severe wind gusts despite the more hostile airmass for surface-based convection near and east of the MO River, per the 00Z OAX sounding. A lone high-based supercell in east-central WY may persist east-southeast along the surface front for a couple more hours, with some potential for an addition storm or two to form after dusk. Marginal severe hail and wind will remain possible. ..Grams.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NE TO FAR WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms should persist for a few more hours across a portion of eastern Nebraska into far western Iowa, before diminishing tonight. ...01Z Update... Most of the severe threat across the central and northern Great Plains has diminished and this trend should largely persist through the rest of evening. One exception, where a severe wind and brief tornado threat should persist, is across eastern NE into far western IA. A leading supercell over south-central NE has recently become absorbed into a mostly non-severe QLCS. This process may yield some short-term strengthening of the severe wind threat along the south side of the QLCS amid a 45-kt low-level jet per UEX VWP data. Further increase of the low-level jet through the evening will probably maintain a threat for strong to locally severe wind gusts despite the more hostile airmass for surface-based convection near and east of the MO River, per the 00Z OAX sounding. A lone high-based supercell in east-central WY may persist east-southeast along the surface front for a couple more hours, with some potential for an addition storm or two to form after dusk. Marginal severe hail and wind will remain possible. ..Grams.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NE TO FAR WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms should persist for a few more hours across a portion of eastern Nebraska into far western Iowa, before diminishing tonight. ...01Z Update... Most of the severe threat across the central and northern Great Plains has diminished and this trend should largely persist through the rest of evening. One exception, where a severe wind and brief tornado threat should persist, is across eastern NE into far western IA. A leading supercell over south-central NE has recently become absorbed into a mostly non-severe QLCS. This process may yield some short-term strengthening of the severe wind threat along the south side of the QLCS amid a 45-kt low-level jet per UEX VWP data. Further increase of the low-level jet through the evening will probably maintain a threat for strong to locally severe wind gusts despite the more hostile airmass for surface-based convection near and east of the MO River, per the 00Z OAX sounding. A lone high-based supercell in east-central WY may persist east-southeast along the surface front for a couple more hours, with some potential for an addition storm or two to form after dusk. Marginal severe hail and wind will remain possible. ..Grams.. 07/02/2024 Read more