Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the initially prominent higher-latitude mid-level ridging emerging from the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed through this period. Although there is notable spread concerning the downstream acceleration of the initially significant mid-level low to its southeast, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly shift eastward in positively tilted fashion, through the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region by late this coming weekend, through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the middle of next week. In advance of the troughing, Debby's remnant surface low may interact with a surface cold front advancing to the east of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, before perhaps merging into the primary surface cyclone across southern Quebec by Saturday. Models have varied concerning these developments, but tropical pre-frontal moistening in the presence of intensifying deep-layer southerly wind fields might be accompanied by an evolving low-topped convective band with potential to produce damaging wind gusts near/east of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England. Due to lingering uncertainties severe probabilities are begin maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for Saturday. Otherwise, the potential for severe weather elsewhere across the U.S. late this coming weekend into the middle of next week appears likely to be remain limited by the lack of stronger boundary-layer destabilization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the initially prominent higher-latitude mid-level ridging emerging from the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed through this period. Although there is notable spread concerning the downstream acceleration of the initially significant mid-level low to its southeast, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly shift eastward in positively tilted fashion, through the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region by late this coming weekend, through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the middle of next week. In advance of the troughing, Debby's remnant surface low may interact with a surface cold front advancing to the east of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, before perhaps merging into the primary surface cyclone across southern Quebec by Saturday. Models have varied concerning these developments, but tropical pre-frontal moistening in the presence of intensifying deep-layer southerly wind fields might be accompanied by an evolving low-topped convective band with potential to produce damaging wind gusts near/east of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England. Due to lingering uncertainties severe probabilities are begin maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for Saturday. Otherwise, the potential for severe weather elsewhere across the U.S. late this coming weekend into the middle of next week appears likely to be remain limited by the lack of stronger boundary-layer destabilization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the initially prominent higher-latitude mid-level ridging emerging from the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed through this period. Although there is notable spread concerning the downstream acceleration of the initially significant mid-level low to its southeast, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly shift eastward in positively tilted fashion, through the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region by late this coming weekend, through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the middle of next week. In advance of the troughing, Debby's remnant surface low may interact with a surface cold front advancing to the east of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, before perhaps merging into the primary surface cyclone across southern Quebec by Saturday. Models have varied concerning these developments, but tropical pre-frontal moistening in the presence of intensifying deep-layer southerly wind fields might be accompanied by an evolving low-topped convective band with potential to produce damaging wind gusts near/east of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England. Due to lingering uncertainties severe probabilities are begin maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for Saturday. Otherwise, the potential for severe weather elsewhere across the U.S. late this coming weekend into the middle of next week appears likely to be remain limited by the lack of stronger boundary-layer destabilization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the initially prominent higher-latitude mid-level ridging emerging from the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed through this period. Although there is notable spread concerning the downstream acceleration of the initially significant mid-level low to its southeast, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly shift eastward in positively tilted fashion, through the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region by late this coming weekend, through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the middle of next week. In advance of the troughing, Debby's remnant surface low may interact with a surface cold front advancing to the east of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, before perhaps merging into the primary surface cyclone across southern Quebec by Saturday. Models have varied concerning these developments, but tropical pre-frontal moistening in the presence of intensifying deep-layer southerly wind fields might be accompanied by an evolving low-topped convective band with potential to produce damaging wind gusts near/east of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England. Due to lingering uncertainties severe probabilities are begin maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for Saturday. Otherwise, the potential for severe weather elsewhere across the U.S. late this coming weekend into the middle of next week appears likely to be remain limited by the lack of stronger boundary-layer destabilization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the initially prominent higher-latitude mid-level ridging emerging from the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed through this period. Although there is notable spread concerning the downstream acceleration of the initially significant mid-level low to its southeast, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly shift eastward in positively tilted fashion, through the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region by late this coming weekend, through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the middle of next week. In advance of the troughing, Debby's remnant surface low may interact with a surface cold front advancing to the east of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, before perhaps merging into the primary surface cyclone across southern Quebec by Saturday. Models have varied concerning these developments, but tropical pre-frontal moistening in the presence of intensifying deep-layer southerly wind fields might be accompanied by an evolving low-topped convective band with potential to produce damaging wind gusts near/east of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England. Due to lingering uncertainties severe probabilities are begin maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for Saturday. Otherwise, the potential for severe weather elsewhere across the U.S. late this coming weekend into the middle of next week appears likely to be remain limited by the lack of stronger boundary-layer destabilization. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more