Severe Storms

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CMH TO 20 S CAK TO 30 N PIT TO 20 NW FKL. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-031-059-067-081-157-062340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON TUSCARAWAS PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-035-037-039-041- 043-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-075-087-093-097-099- 107-109-111-119-121-125-129-133-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FAYETTE FOREST FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CMH TO 20 S CAK TO 30 N PIT TO 20 NW FKL. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-031-059-067-081-157-062340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON TUSCARAWAS PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-035-037-039-041- 043-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-075-087-093-097-099- 107-109-111-119-121-125-129-133-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FAYETTE FOREST FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CMH TO 20 S CAK TO 30 N PIT TO 20 NW FKL. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-031-059-067-081-157-062340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON TUSCARAWAS PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-035-037-039-041- 043-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-075-087-093-097-099- 107-109-111-119-121-125-129-133-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FAYETTE FOREST FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON Read more

WW 605 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV LE 061540Z - 062300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 605 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Ohio Western and Central Pennsylvania Northern Panhandle of West Virginia Lake Erie * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1140 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and traverse the watch area through the afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main concerns. A tornado or two is also possible later this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west of Mansfield OH to 45 miles northeast of Harrisburg PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 603...WW 604... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-062340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC071-087-062340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ORANGE ROCKLAND PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-127-131- 062340- PA Read more

WW 0607 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 607 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-031-047-129-133-141-062340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PENDER SCC041-043-051-067-089-062340- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLORENCE GEORGETOWN HORRY MARION WILLIAMSBURG AMZ158-250-252-254-256-062340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NC TO SURF CITY NC OUT TO 20 NM Read more

WW 0608 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 608 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-075-062340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER SDC019-033-063-081-093-103-062340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON WYC005-011-033-045-062340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK SHERIDAN WESTON Read more

WW 0608 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 608 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-075-062340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER SDC019-033-063-081-093-103-062340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON WYC005-011-033-045-062340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK SHERIDAN WESTON Read more

WW 608 SEVERE TSTM MT SD WY 062205Z - 070600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 608 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 405 PM until Midnight MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the late afternoon and evening and spread eastward across the Watch area. The stronger storms will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph). Large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) may also accompany the more intense storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Miles City MT to 45 miles north northeast of Rapid City SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 605...WW 606...WW 607... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more