Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z Due to an increase in expected coverage of high-based convection tomorrow afternoon, the Isolated Dry Thunder area has been expanded over portions of the Great Basin. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of southern Utah, northwestern Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain on Wednesday. Deeply mixed profiles will support downward mixing of flow aloft and sustained surface winds 15-20 mph. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels supporting inclusion of an Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z Due to an increase in expected coverage of high-based convection tomorrow afternoon, the Isolated Dry Thunder area has been expanded over portions of the Great Basin. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of southern Utah, northwestern Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain on Wednesday. Deeply mixed profiles will support downward mixing of flow aloft and sustained surface winds 15-20 mph. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels supporting inclusion of an Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z Due to an increase in expected coverage of high-based convection tomorrow afternoon, the Isolated Dry Thunder area has been expanded over portions of the Great Basin. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of southern Utah, northwestern Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain on Wednesday. Deeply mixed profiles will support downward mixing of flow aloft and sustained surface winds 15-20 mph. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels supporting inclusion of an Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z Due to an increase in expected coverage of high-based convection tomorrow afternoon, the Isolated Dry Thunder area has been expanded over portions of the Great Basin. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of southern Utah, northwestern Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain on Wednesday. Deeply mixed profiles will support downward mixing of flow aloft and sustained surface winds 15-20 mph. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels supporting inclusion of an Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z Due to an increase in expected coverage of high-based convection tomorrow afternoon, the Isolated Dry Thunder area has been expanded over portions of the Great Basin. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of southern Utah, northwestern Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain on Wednesday. Deeply mixed profiles will support downward mixing of flow aloft and sustained surface winds 15-20 mph. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels supporting inclusion of an Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z Due to an increase in expected coverage of high-based convection tomorrow afternoon, the Isolated Dry Thunder area has been expanded over portions of the Great Basin. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of southern Utah, northwestern Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain on Wednesday. Deeply mixed profiles will support downward mixing of flow aloft and sustained surface winds 15-20 mph. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels supporting inclusion of an Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z Due to an increase in expected coverage of high-based convection tomorrow afternoon, the Isolated Dry Thunder area has been expanded over portions of the Great Basin. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of southern Utah, northwestern Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain on Wednesday. Deeply mixed profiles will support downward mixing of flow aloft and sustained surface winds 15-20 mph. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels supporting inclusion of an Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 6 19:45:15 UTC 2024.

MD 1845 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1845 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605... Valid 061810Z - 061945Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605. Damaging gusts should remain the primary threat, though a couple more instances of severe hail may occur and a tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters and supercells, with a history of damaging gusts and up to golfball sized hail, remain in progress across western into central PA. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are gradually increasing in both coverage and intensity across eastern PA and in far northwestern OH. As such, multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms should simultaneously progress across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605 through the afternoon. The greatest (and most immediate) threat for severe storms remains with the western PA cluster, which may grow upscale into an MCS given possible cold pool mergers. Should this occur, a focused corridor of damaging gusts and perhaps a QLCS tornado may result over central PA. Otherwise, more discrete development over northern OH may progress toward the OH/PA border. Damaging gusts are possible, and an instance of large hail or a tornado cannot be ruled out with these storms. Finally, a couple of wet downbursts may accompany preceding storms to the east of the Appalachians. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 40938351 41578218 41567689 41157629 39977604 39707696 39807934 39898098 40108192 40398292 40938351 Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-062040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC071-087-062040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ORANGE ROCKLAND PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-127-131- 062040- PA Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-007-013-019-029-031-033-035-043-055-059-063-067-075-077- 081-083-085-093-099-101-103-117-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-175- 062040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA ERIE GEAUGA GUERNSEY HANCOCK HARRISON HOLMES HURON JEFFERSON KNOX LAKE LORAIN MAHONING MARION MEDINA MORROW PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE WYANDOT PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-039- 041-043-047-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-075-081- 085-087-093-097-099-107-109-111-113-119-121-125-129-133- 062040- PA Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-007-013-019-029-031-033-035-043-055-059-063-067-075-077- 081-083-085-093-099-101-103-117-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-175- 061940- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA ERIE GEAUGA GUERNSEY HANCOCK HARRISON HOLMES HURON JEFFERSON KNOX LAKE LORAIN MAHONING MARION MEDINA MORROW PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE WYANDOT PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-039- 041-043-047-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-075-081- 085-087-093-097-099-107-109-111-113-119-121-125-129-133- 061940- PA Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-061940- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC071-087-061940- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ORANGE ROCKLAND PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-127-131- 061940- PA Read more

MD 1844 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN DELAWARE
Mesoscale Discussion 1844 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...far eastern Maryland...northern Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 061706Z - 061830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase through the afternoon, with multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though a couple instances of large hail or a tornado are also possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...Multiple semi-discrete, robust updrafts (including supercells) have become established over western PA and are poised to track eastward through the afternoon. However, before these storms cross the Appalachians, at least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop east of the Appalachians amid a destabilizing airmass. Visible satellite shows a rapidly expanding CU field, with MRMS mosaic radar data showing convective initiation potentially already underway. To the lee of the Appalachians, surface temperatures are already reaching 90 F amid 70+ F dewpoints, supporting 8 C/km boundary-layer lapse rates (per 16Z mesoanalysis). Though deep-layer shear should remain modest through at least early to mid afternoon (i.e. around 30 kts effective bulk shear), the steepening low-level lapse rates will support a damaging gust threat. Later this afternoon, as the stronger storms to the west approach the region, an instance or two of large hail and maybe even a tornado could occur as these storms traverse a baroclinic boundary, where low-level shear may be locally maximized. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 41547634 41337471 41107410 40487393 39777413 39157450 39087501 39117540 39457603 40057578 40817586 41547634 Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0606 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-007-013-019-029-031-033-035-043-055-059-063-067-075-077- 081-083-085-093-099-101-103-117-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-175- 061840- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA ERIE GEAUGA GUERNSEY HANCOCK HARRISON HOLMES HURON JEFFERSON KNOX LAKE LORAIN MAHONING MARION MEDINA MORROW PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE WYANDOT PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-039- 041-043-047-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-075-081- 085-087-093-097-099-107-109-111-113-119-121-125-129-133- 061840- PA Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Moderate west/northwest winds aloft will extend from the northern Rockies across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley on Wednesday as an upper rough over SK/MB drops southward toward the US/CN border into Thursday morning. Through 00Z, the strongest cooling aloft will extend into MT and ND, with 40+ kt 500 mb winds as far south as northern NE and IA. At the surface, low pressure will generally stretch from the ND/MN border into central NE and toward eastern CO/western KS through late afternoon, with a surface high from the upper Great Lakes to the lower MO Valley limiting moisture return. However, a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints should develop ahead of the front across KS, NE, and the Dakotas, aiding destabilization. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to linger near the SC Coast, with persistent heavy rain threat along with a low-end risk of a tornado as low-level shear remains favorable. ...Central and northern Plains... Strong heating will yield steep low-level lapse rates along the Front Range and extending east/northeast ahead of the cold front into western NE and nosing into SD. This will result in an unstable and uncapped air mass near the front, where convergence will support storms forming after 20Z from southeast WY into north-central CO, and toward 00Z into SD. The high-based activity over WY and CO will favor locally strong wind gusts, and these storms may persist through the evening into across southern NE and northern KS with wind potential. Farther north, deep-layer shear will may favor isolated cells capable of marginal hail, but midlevel lapse rates look to be poor. ...Coastal Carolinas... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to be just off the SC Coast for much of the day, moving onshore early Thursday. Dewpoints over the coastal counties north and east of the center of circulation are forecast to remain in the upper 70s F, which may yield sufficient instability for embedded severe cells within banded convection. As such, will maintain low tornado probabilities for any stronger embedded cells. ..Jewell.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Moderate west/northwest winds aloft will extend from the northern Rockies across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley on Wednesday as an upper rough over SK/MB drops southward toward the US/CN border into Thursday morning. Through 00Z, the strongest cooling aloft will extend into MT and ND, with 40+ kt 500 mb winds as far south as northern NE and IA. At the surface, low pressure will generally stretch from the ND/MN border into central NE and toward eastern CO/western KS through late afternoon, with a surface high from the upper Great Lakes to the lower MO Valley limiting moisture return. However, a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints should develop ahead of the front across KS, NE, and the Dakotas, aiding destabilization. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to linger near the SC Coast, with persistent heavy rain threat along with a low-end risk of a tornado as low-level shear remains favorable. ...Central and northern Plains... Strong heating will yield steep low-level lapse rates along the Front Range and extending east/northeast ahead of the cold front into western NE and nosing into SD. This will result in an unstable and uncapped air mass near the front, where convergence will support storms forming after 20Z from southeast WY into north-central CO, and toward 00Z into SD. The high-based activity over WY and CO will favor locally strong wind gusts, and these storms may persist through the evening into across southern NE and northern KS with wind potential. Farther north, deep-layer shear will may favor isolated cells capable of marginal hail, but midlevel lapse rates look to be poor. ...Coastal Carolinas... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to be just off the SC Coast for much of the day, moving onshore early Thursday. Dewpoints over the coastal counties north and east of the center of circulation are forecast to remain in the upper 70s F, which may yield sufficient instability for embedded severe cells within banded convection. As such, will maintain low tornado probabilities for any stronger embedded cells. ..Jewell.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Moderate west/northwest winds aloft will extend from the northern Rockies across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley on Wednesday as an upper rough over SK/MB drops southward toward the US/CN border into Thursday morning. Through 00Z, the strongest cooling aloft will extend into MT and ND, with 40+ kt 500 mb winds as far south as northern NE and IA. At the surface, low pressure will generally stretch from the ND/MN border into central NE and toward eastern CO/western KS through late afternoon, with a surface high from the upper Great Lakes to the lower MO Valley limiting moisture return. However, a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints should develop ahead of the front across KS, NE, and the Dakotas, aiding destabilization. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to linger near the SC Coast, with persistent heavy rain threat along with a low-end risk of a tornado as low-level shear remains favorable. ...Central and northern Plains... Strong heating will yield steep low-level lapse rates along the Front Range and extending east/northeast ahead of the cold front into western NE and nosing into SD. This will result in an unstable and uncapped air mass near the front, where convergence will support storms forming after 20Z from southeast WY into north-central CO, and toward 00Z into SD. The high-based activity over WY and CO will favor locally strong wind gusts, and these storms may persist through the evening into across southern NE and northern KS with wind potential. Farther north, deep-layer shear will may favor isolated cells capable of marginal hail, but midlevel lapse rates look to be poor. ...Coastal Carolinas... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to be just off the SC Coast for much of the day, moving onshore early Thursday. Dewpoints over the coastal counties north and east of the center of circulation are forecast to remain in the upper 70s F, which may yield sufficient instability for embedded severe cells within banded convection. As such, will maintain low tornado probabilities for any stronger embedded cells. ..Jewell.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Moderate west/northwest winds aloft will extend from the northern Rockies across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley on Wednesday as an upper rough over SK/MB drops southward toward the US/CN border into Thursday morning. Through 00Z, the strongest cooling aloft will extend into MT and ND, with 40+ kt 500 mb winds as far south as northern NE and IA. At the surface, low pressure will generally stretch from the ND/MN border into central NE and toward eastern CO/western KS through late afternoon, with a surface high from the upper Great Lakes to the lower MO Valley limiting moisture return. However, a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints should develop ahead of the front across KS, NE, and the Dakotas, aiding destabilization. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to linger near the SC Coast, with persistent heavy rain threat along with a low-end risk of a tornado as low-level shear remains favorable. ...Central and northern Plains... Strong heating will yield steep low-level lapse rates along the Front Range and extending east/northeast ahead of the cold front into western NE and nosing into SD. This will result in an unstable and uncapped air mass near the front, where convergence will support storms forming after 20Z from southeast WY into north-central CO, and toward 00Z into SD. The high-based activity over WY and CO will favor locally strong wind gusts, and these storms may persist through the evening into across southern NE and northern KS with wind potential. Farther north, deep-layer shear will may favor isolated cells capable of marginal hail, but midlevel lapse rates look to be poor. ...Coastal Carolinas... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to be just off the SC Coast for much of the day, moving onshore early Thursday. Dewpoints over the coastal counties north and east of the center of circulation are forecast to remain in the upper 70s F, which may yield sufficient instability for embedded severe cells within banded convection. As such, will maintain low tornado probabilities for any stronger embedded cells. ..Jewell.. 08/06/2024 Read more