Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839 ..DEAN..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC013-015-019-029-035-043-053-060940- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER GEORGETOWN JASPER AMZ256-276-330-350-352-370-372-060940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC FROM 20 TO 40 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC013-015-019-029-035-043-053-060840- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER GEORGETOWN JASPER AMZ256-276-330-350-352-370-372-060840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC FROM 20 TO 40 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more