Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

MD 1853 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1853 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0956 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...north-central Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609... Valid 070256Z - 070400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat continues in WW609. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across northern Montana continues eastward, with a trend toward more linear storm mode. This will support increasing potential for strong to severe gusts. Radar from Great Falls (KTFX) shows an increase in winds 45-55 mph around 1 kft within the line northwest of Great Falls, with an increase in lightning activity over the last 30 minutes. Though the downstream environment is characterized as weakly unstable (MLCAPE around 250 J/kg), strong deep layer shear around 45-50 kts could continue to support a few organized segments with potential for strong to severe gusts. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 48921120 48291160 47901178 47511188 47281179 47221131 47341011 47620938 47880856 48310853 48850853 48980858 48921120 Read more

WW 0608 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW CDR TO 65 ENE GCC TO 15 E 4BQ TO 25 WNW BHK. ..THORNTON..08/07/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-025-070440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER FALLON SDC019-033-063-081-093-103-070440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0608 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW CDR TO 65 ENE GCC TO 15 E 4BQ TO 25 WNW BHK. ..THORNTON..08/07/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-025-070440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER FALLON SDC019-033-063-081-093-103-070440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 608 SEVERE TSTM MT SD WY 062205Z - 070600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 608 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 405 PM until Midnight MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the late afternoon and evening and spread eastward across the Watch area. The stronger storms will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph). Large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) may also accompany the more intense storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Miles City MT to 45 miles north northeast of Rapid City SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 605...WW 606...WW 607... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BTM TO 65 ENE CTB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853 ..THORNTON..08/07/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...MSO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC005-007-013-015-021-027-033-041-043-045-049-051-055-059-069- 071-079-083-109-070440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROADWATER CASCADE CHOUTEAU DAWSON FERGUS GARFIELD HILL JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY MCCONE MEAGHER PETROLEUM PHILLIPS PRAIRIE RICHLAND WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more