Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...NC/VA... Debby will likely remain a Tropical Storm as the system tracks northward across the Carolinas on Thursday. Strong southeasterly low-level winds in the eastern semi-circle will result in favorable shear profiles for a few tornadoes. So far with this system, a lack of heating in the more strongly sheared areas has limited overall tornado potential. However, 12z CAM solutions suggest the potential for more heating across parts of central NC and southern VA tomorrow, lending some concern for an uptick in risk. ...Southwest... Scattered or greater coverage of thunderstorms is expected on Thursday across much of the southern Rockies, southern Great Basin, and Four Corners regions. Pockets of strong daytime heating and steep lapse rates will result in the potential for damaging wind gusts in some areas, although confidence in the mesoscale details of these risk areas is low at this time. Portions of this region may need an upgrade to MRGL risk in subsequent outlook updates. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...NC/VA... Debby will likely remain a Tropical Storm as the system tracks northward across the Carolinas on Thursday. Strong southeasterly low-level winds in the eastern semi-circle will result in favorable shear profiles for a few tornadoes. So far with this system, a lack of heating in the more strongly sheared areas has limited overall tornado potential. However, 12z CAM solutions suggest the potential for more heating across parts of central NC and southern VA tomorrow, lending some concern for an uptick in risk. ...Southwest... Scattered or greater coverage of thunderstorms is expected on Thursday across much of the southern Rockies, southern Great Basin, and Four Corners regions. Pockets of strong daytime heating and steep lapse rates will result in the potential for damaging wind gusts in some areas, although confidence in the mesoscale details of these risk areas is low at this time. Portions of this region may need an upgrade to MRGL risk in subsequent outlook updates. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...NC/VA... Debby will likely remain a Tropical Storm as the system tracks northward across the Carolinas on Thursday. Strong southeasterly low-level winds in the eastern semi-circle will result in favorable shear profiles for a few tornadoes. So far with this system, a lack of heating in the more strongly sheared areas has limited overall tornado potential. However, 12z CAM solutions suggest the potential for more heating across parts of central NC and southern VA tomorrow, lending some concern for an uptick in risk. ...Southwest... Scattered or greater coverage of thunderstorms is expected on Thursday across much of the southern Rockies, southern Great Basin, and Four Corners regions. Pockets of strong daytime heating and steep lapse rates will result in the potential for damaging wind gusts in some areas, although confidence in the mesoscale details of these risk areas is low at this time. Portions of this region may need an upgrade to MRGL risk in subsequent outlook updates. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...NC/VA... Debby will likely remain a Tropical Storm as the system tracks northward across the Carolinas on Thursday. Strong southeasterly low-level winds in the eastern semi-circle will result in favorable shear profiles for a few tornadoes. So far with this system, a lack of heating in the more strongly sheared areas has limited overall tornado potential. However, 12z CAM solutions suggest the potential for more heating across parts of central NC and southern VA tomorrow, lending some concern for an uptick in risk. ...Southwest... Scattered or greater coverage of thunderstorms is expected on Thursday across much of the southern Rockies, southern Great Basin, and Four Corners regions. Pockets of strong daytime heating and steep lapse rates will result in the potential for damaging wind gusts in some areas, although confidence in the mesoscale details of these risk areas is low at this time. Portions of this region may need an upgrade to MRGL risk in subsequent outlook updates. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...NC/VA... Debby will likely remain a Tropical Storm as the system tracks northward across the Carolinas on Thursday. Strong southeasterly low-level winds in the eastern semi-circle will result in favorable shear profiles for a few tornadoes. So far with this system, a lack of heating in the more strongly sheared areas has limited overall tornado potential. However, 12z CAM solutions suggest the potential for more heating across parts of central NC and southern VA tomorrow, lending some concern for an uptick in risk. ...Southwest... Scattered or greater coverage of thunderstorms is expected on Thursday across much of the southern Rockies, southern Great Basin, and Four Corners regions. Pockets of strong daytime heating and steep lapse rates will result in the potential for damaging wind gusts in some areas, although confidence in the mesoscale details of these risk areas is low at this time. Portions of this region may need an upgrade to MRGL risk in subsequent outlook updates. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...NC/VA... Debby will likely remain a Tropical Storm as the system tracks northward across the Carolinas on Thursday. Strong southeasterly low-level winds in the eastern semi-circle will result in favorable shear profiles for a few tornadoes. So far with this system, a lack of heating in the more strongly sheared areas has limited overall tornado potential. However, 12z CAM solutions suggest the potential for more heating across parts of central NC and southern VA tomorrow, lending some concern for an uptick in risk. ...Southwest... Scattered or greater coverage of thunderstorms is expected on Thursday across much of the southern Rockies, southern Great Basin, and Four Corners regions. Pockets of strong daytime heating and steep lapse rates will result in the potential for damaging wind gusts in some areas, although confidence in the mesoscale details of these risk areas is low at this time. Portions of this region may need an upgrade to MRGL risk in subsequent outlook updates. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 Read more

MD 1857 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1857 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Areas affected...portions of coastal North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071520Z - 071745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out through early afternoon. A WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Debby continues to meander off of the coastline of the Carolinas as widespread rain/clouds from outer rain bands continue to overspread inland areas. Regional VADs (particularly LTX) depict sizable low-level hodographs and nearly 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. However, despite mid to upper 70s F contributing to over 1000 J/kg SB/MLCAPE, boundary-layer lapse rates remains quite poor (both the 12Z MHX observed sounding and 15Z mesoanalysis show 5 C/km in the 0-3 km layer). Given the favorable low-level shear, a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out, especially over far southern NC, where some breaks in the clouds were noted. Nonetheless, overall tornado coverage is expected to be sparse, and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 33617860 34107878 35117808 35857677 35957595 35587538 35117536 34557663 33767783 33617860 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded westward slightly in Utah to reflect the latest thinking on thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded westward slightly in Utah to reflect the latest thinking on thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded westward slightly in Utah to reflect the latest thinking on thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more