Severe Storms

WW 611 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 072015Z - 080400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 611 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Far Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska Far Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected to continue across the southeastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado, with these storms then moving downstream into western Nebraska and far northwest Kansas. The environment supports large hail with the early, more cellular storms, with a trend towards a more linear mode anticipated thereafter. Damaging gusts are the more likely threat as the line of storms moves into western Nebraska and far northwest Kansas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Cheyenne WY to Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 610... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1859 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1859 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Areas affected...portions of the central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071857Z - 072100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected early this afternoon across the higher terrain of eastern WY and CO. A mix of supercells and clusters may produce damaging winds and hail. A WW is being considered. DISCUSSION...As of 1845 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery showed initial thunderstorm development was ongoing over southern Laramie Range in eastern WY with additional storms developing over parts of northern CO. Further development and maturation of convection is expected over the next couple of hours as ascent from a subtle shortwave trough overspreads the central Rockies. Weak upslope flow and the approach of a cold front from the north will continue to advect seasonable low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) across the central High Plains. While currently MLCINH is still robust, continued heating, the approach of the front and upslope should gradually support destabilization with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE expected. 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support storm organization with a mix of multi-cell clusters and supercells possible. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will support strong downdrafts capable of damaging gusts, especially with any persistent clusters. Hail (some could be as large as 2 in) will also be possible, especially with any supercell structures. The initial ongoing storms are, so far, closely tied to the terrain where more persistent orographic ascent has removed most inhibition. As the capping over the plains is slowly removed these initial updrafts should move eastward across parts of northeast CO and eastern WY into western NE. CAM guidance varies on the timing of this transition, but observation trends suggest this could occur as early as the next hour or two. While confidence in the exact timing of the increasing severe risk is low, the potential for damaging wind gusts and hail suggest a watch may be needed. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39170390 39470450 40010487 40610516 42020551 42720500 42760479 42580250 42300186 41980135 41690110 41020064 40490060 39390142 39120244 39080300 39170390 Read more

MD 1858 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1858 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Areas affected...portions of coastal North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071817Z - 072045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon with the more organized storms embedded in the rainbands of Debby. The overall severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Modest surface heating has allowed for surface temperatures to warm to the 79-81 F mark about 50 miles inland from the coast. The LTX VAD profiler has recently shown over 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH in the vicinity of where low-topped supercells are ongoing (southern NC coastline). As such, kinematics and current storm mode does favor tornado production. However, boundary-layer lapse rates remain poor (i.e. 5-5.5 C/km), so the instability needed for low-level vorticity stretching is marginal at best. As such, any tornadoes that manage to form should be brief and a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 33837850 34527843 35307770 35737641 35727559 35467540 35077566 34637642 34367715 33877786 33837850 Read more

WW 0611 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0611 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0610 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0610 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0610 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded to account for drier conditions across parts of western Colorado with receptive fuels in the region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more