Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...AND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of Ohio to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Northern Plains... A robust upper cyclone will spread east from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Wednesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Dakotas, in conjunction with stronger height falls, from late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains during the day, resulting in an increasing baroclinic zone across the northern Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest ahead of a westward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer moisture will support a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings indication supercell wind profile, with greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail, some potential to 3 inch diameter, will be possible in addition to severe wind gusts beginning near 00z and lingering into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...AND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of Ohio to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Northern Plains... A robust upper cyclone will spread east from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Wednesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Dakotas, in conjunction with stronger height falls, from late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains during the day, resulting in an increasing baroclinic zone across the northern Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest ahead of a westward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer moisture will support a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings indication supercell wind profile, with greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail, some potential to 3 inch diameter, will be possible in addition to severe wind gusts beginning near 00z and lingering into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...AND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of Ohio to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Northern Plains... A robust upper cyclone will spread east from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Wednesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Dakotas, in conjunction with stronger height falls, from late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains during the day, resulting in an increasing baroclinic zone across the northern Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest ahead of a westward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer moisture will support a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings indication supercell wind profile, with greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail, some potential to 3 inch diameter, will be possible in addition to severe wind gusts beginning near 00z and lingering into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...AND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of Ohio to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Northern Plains... A robust upper cyclone will spread east from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Wednesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Dakotas, in conjunction with stronger height falls, from late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains during the day, resulting in an increasing baroclinic zone across the northern Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest ahead of a westward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer moisture will support a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings indication supercell wind profile, with greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail, some potential to 3 inch diameter, will be possible in addition to severe wind gusts beginning near 00z and lingering into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...AND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of Ohio to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Northern Plains... A robust upper cyclone will spread east from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Wednesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Dakotas, in conjunction with stronger height falls, from late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains during the day, resulting in an increasing baroclinic zone across the northern Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest ahead of a westward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer moisture will support a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings indication supercell wind profile, with greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail, some potential to 3 inch diameter, will be possible in addition to severe wind gusts beginning near 00z and lingering into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...AND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of Ohio to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Northern Plains... A robust upper cyclone will spread east from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Wednesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Dakotas, in conjunction with stronger height falls, from late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains during the day, resulting in an increasing baroclinic zone across the northern Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest ahead of a westward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer moisture will support a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings indication supercell wind profile, with greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail, some potential to 3 inch diameter, will be possible in addition to severe wind gusts beginning near 00z and lingering into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...AND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of Ohio to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Northern Plains... A robust upper cyclone will spread east from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Wednesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Dakotas, in conjunction with stronger height falls, from late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains during the day, resulting in an increasing baroclinic zone across the northern Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest ahead of a westward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer moisture will support a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings indication supercell wind profile, with greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail, some potential to 3 inch diameter, will be possible in addition to severe wind gusts beginning near 00z and lingering into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...AND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of Ohio to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Northern Plains... A robust upper cyclone will spread east from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Wednesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Dakotas, in conjunction with stronger height falls, from late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains during the day, resulting in an increasing baroclinic zone across the northern Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest ahead of a westward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer moisture will support a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings indication supercell wind profile, with greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail, some potential to 3 inch diameter, will be possible in addition to severe wind gusts beginning near 00z and lingering into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...AND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of Ohio to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Northern Plains... A robust upper cyclone will spread east from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Wednesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Dakotas, in conjunction with stronger height falls, from late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains during the day, resulting in an increasing baroclinic zone across the northern Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest ahead of a westward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer moisture will support a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings indication supercell wind profile, with greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail, some potential to 3 inch diameter, will be possible in addition to severe wind gusts beginning near 00z and lingering into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0655 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0655 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest through tonight. ...Great Lakes/Midwest/Central Plains... A rather complex mesoscale scenario exists particularly across the Great Lakes region, influenced by multiple MCSs/outflows since last evening. Multiple MCVs are apparent across the region including western Upper Michigan, potentially including an MCV with evolving asymmetric quasi-linear convection across east-central Wisconsin late this morning. Within a zone of pre-frontal confluence/augmented outflow, MCS persistence and further upscale/southward peripheral growth is possible into Lower Michigan/northern Illinois into a very unstable air mass, but this is far from certain. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 2013. Where storm clusters do develop and intensify regionally, ample buoyancy, particularly south of the aforementioned late-morning MCS, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support damaging wind and isolated large hail potential. The severe threat could reach as far as the Lake Ontario vicinity late tonight/early Wednesday. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front and potentially augmented by residual outflow, CAPE and especially vertical shear will be weaker from southeast Iowa/western Illinois into northern Missouri and eastern Kansas/southeast Nebraska. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with strong wind gusts and severe hail possible. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest through tonight. ...Great Lakes/Midwest/Central Plains... A rather complex mesoscale scenario exists particularly across the Great Lakes region, influenced by multiple MCSs/outflows since last evening. Multiple MCVs are apparent across the region including western Upper Michigan, potentially including an MCV with evolving asymmetric quasi-linear convection across east-central Wisconsin late this morning. Within a zone of pre-frontal confluence/augmented outflow, MCS persistence and further upscale/southward peripheral growth is possible into Lower Michigan/northern Illinois into a very unstable air mass, but this is far from certain. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 2013. Where storm clusters do develop and intensify regionally, ample buoyancy, particularly south of the aforementioned late-morning MCS, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support damaging wind and isolated large hail potential. The severe threat could reach as far as the Lake Ontario vicinity late tonight/early Wednesday. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front and potentially augmented by residual outflow, CAPE and especially vertical shear will be weaker from southeast Iowa/western Illinois into northern Missouri and eastern Kansas/southeast Nebraska. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with strong wind gusts and severe hail possible. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest through tonight. ...Great Lakes/Midwest/Central Plains... A rather complex mesoscale scenario exists particularly across the Great Lakes region, influenced by multiple MCSs/outflows since last evening. Multiple MCVs are apparent across the region including western Upper Michigan, potentially including an MCV with evolving asymmetric quasi-linear convection across east-central Wisconsin late this morning. Within a zone of pre-frontal confluence/augmented outflow, MCS persistence and further upscale/southward peripheral growth is possible into Lower Michigan/northern Illinois into a very unstable air mass, but this is far from certain. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 2013. Where storm clusters do develop and intensify regionally, ample buoyancy, particularly south of the aforementioned late-morning MCS, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support damaging wind and isolated large hail potential. The severe threat could reach as far as the Lake Ontario vicinity late tonight/early Wednesday. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front and potentially augmented by residual outflow, CAPE and especially vertical shear will be weaker from southeast Iowa/western Illinois into northern Missouri and eastern Kansas/southeast Nebraska. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with strong wind gusts and severe hail possible. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest through tonight. ...Great Lakes/Midwest/Central Plains... A rather complex mesoscale scenario exists particularly across the Great Lakes region, influenced by multiple MCSs/outflows since last evening. Multiple MCVs are apparent across the region including western Upper Michigan, potentially including an MCV with evolving asymmetric quasi-linear convection across east-central Wisconsin late this morning. Within a zone of pre-frontal confluence/augmented outflow, MCS persistence and further upscale/southward peripheral growth is possible into Lower Michigan/northern Illinois into a very unstable air mass, but this is far from certain. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 2013. Where storm clusters do develop and intensify regionally, ample buoyancy, particularly south of the aforementioned late-morning MCS, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support damaging wind and isolated large hail potential. The severe threat could reach as far as the Lake Ontario vicinity late tonight/early Wednesday. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front and potentially augmented by residual outflow, CAPE and especially vertical shear will be weaker from southeast Iowa/western Illinois into northern Missouri and eastern Kansas/southeast Nebraska. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with strong wind gusts and severe hail possible. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest through tonight. ...Great Lakes/Midwest/Central Plains... A rather complex mesoscale scenario exists particularly across the Great Lakes region, influenced by multiple MCSs/outflows since last evening. Multiple MCVs are apparent across the region including western Upper Michigan, potentially including an MCV with evolving asymmetric quasi-linear convection across east-central Wisconsin late this morning. Within a zone of pre-frontal confluence/augmented outflow, MCS persistence and further upscale/southward peripheral growth is possible into Lower Michigan/northern Illinois into a very unstable air mass, but this is far from certain. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 2013. Where storm clusters do develop and intensify regionally, ample buoyancy, particularly south of the aforementioned late-morning MCS, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support damaging wind and isolated large hail potential. The severe threat could reach as far as the Lake Ontario vicinity late tonight/early Wednesday. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front and potentially augmented by residual outflow, CAPE and especially vertical shear will be weaker from southeast Iowa/western Illinois into northern Missouri and eastern Kansas/southeast Nebraska. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with strong wind gusts and severe hail possible. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest through tonight. ...Great Lakes/Midwest/Central Plains... A rather complex mesoscale scenario exists particularly across the Great Lakes region, influenced by multiple MCSs/outflows since last evening. Multiple MCVs are apparent across the region including western Upper Michigan, potentially including an MCV with evolving asymmetric quasi-linear convection across east-central Wisconsin late this morning. Within a zone of pre-frontal confluence/augmented outflow, MCS persistence and further upscale/southward peripheral growth is possible into Lower Michigan/northern Illinois into a very unstable air mass, but this is far from certain. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 2013. Where storm clusters do develop and intensify regionally, ample buoyancy, particularly south of the aforementioned late-morning MCS, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support damaging wind and isolated large hail potential. The severe threat could reach as far as the Lake Ontario vicinity late tonight/early Wednesday. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front and potentially augmented by residual outflow, CAPE and especially vertical shear will be weaker from southeast Iowa/western Illinois into northern Missouri and eastern Kansas/southeast Nebraska. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with strong wind gusts and severe hail possible. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest through tonight. ...Great Lakes/Midwest/Central Plains... A rather complex mesoscale scenario exists particularly across the Great Lakes region, influenced by multiple MCSs/outflows since last evening. Multiple MCVs are apparent across the region including western Upper Michigan, potentially including an MCV with evolving asymmetric quasi-linear convection across east-central Wisconsin late this morning. Within a zone of pre-frontal confluence/augmented outflow, MCS persistence and further upscale/southward peripheral growth is possible into Lower Michigan/northern Illinois into a very unstable air mass, but this is far from certain. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 2013. Where storm clusters do develop and intensify regionally, ample buoyancy, particularly south of the aforementioned late-morning MCS, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support damaging wind and isolated large hail potential. The severe threat could reach as far as the Lake Ontario vicinity late tonight/early Wednesday. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front and potentially augmented by residual outflow, CAPE and especially vertical shear will be weaker from southeast Iowa/western Illinois into northern Missouri and eastern Kansas/southeast Nebraska. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with strong wind gusts and severe hail possible. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest through tonight. ...Great Lakes/Midwest/Central Plains... A rather complex mesoscale scenario exists particularly across the Great Lakes region, influenced by multiple MCSs/outflows since last evening. Multiple MCVs are apparent across the region including western Upper Michigan, potentially including an MCV with evolving asymmetric quasi-linear convection across east-central Wisconsin late this morning. Within a zone of pre-frontal confluence/augmented outflow, MCS persistence and further upscale/southward peripheral growth is possible into Lower Michigan/northern Illinois into a very unstable air mass, but this is far from certain. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 2013. Where storm clusters do develop and intensify regionally, ample buoyancy, particularly south of the aforementioned late-morning MCS, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support damaging wind and isolated large hail potential. The severe threat could reach as far as the Lake Ontario vicinity late tonight/early Wednesday. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front and potentially augmented by residual outflow, CAPE and especially vertical shear will be weaker from southeast Iowa/western Illinois into northern Missouri and eastern Kansas/southeast Nebraska. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with strong wind gusts and severe hail possible. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest through tonight. ...Great Lakes/Midwest/Central Plains... A rather complex mesoscale scenario exists particularly across the Great Lakes region, influenced by multiple MCSs/outflows since last evening. Multiple MCVs are apparent across the region including western Upper Michigan, potentially including an MCV with evolving asymmetric quasi-linear convection across east-central Wisconsin late this morning. Within a zone of pre-frontal confluence/augmented outflow, MCS persistence and further upscale/southward peripheral growth is possible into Lower Michigan/northern Illinois into a very unstable air mass, but this is far from certain. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 2013. Where storm clusters do develop and intensify regionally, ample buoyancy, particularly south of the aforementioned late-morning MCS, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support damaging wind and isolated large hail potential. The severe threat could reach as far as the Lake Ontario vicinity late tonight/early Wednesday. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front and potentially augmented by residual outflow, CAPE and especially vertical shear will be weaker from southeast Iowa/western Illinois into northern Missouri and eastern Kansas/southeast Nebraska. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with strong wind gusts and severe hail possible. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/27/2024 Read more