Severe Storms

WW 0653 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 653 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S OSH TO 20 ENE OSH TO 15 E GRB TO 40 NNE GRB TO 25 SSE IMT TO 15 NNE IMT. ..BENTLEY..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 653 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC029-039-047-061-071-077-117-270740- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DOOR FOND DU LAC GREEN LAKE KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MARQUETTE SHEBOYGAN LMZ521-541-542-543-563-565-567-643-669-270740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI Read more

WW 0653 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 653 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S OSH TO 20 ENE OSH TO 15 E GRB TO 40 NNE GRB TO 25 SSE IMT TO 15 NNE IMT. ..BENTLEY..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 653 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC029-039-047-061-071-077-117-270740- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DOOR FOND DU LAC GREEN LAKE KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MARQUETTE SHEBOYGAN LMZ521-541-542-543-563-565-567-643-669-270740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI Read more

WW 653 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LM 270140Z - 270900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 653 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 840 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southeast Minnesota Northern and Central Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 840 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A bowing complex of thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph as it moves east-southeastward this evening and overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west northwest of Wausau WI to 40 miles northeast of Manitowoc WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 650...WW 651... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing will move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, gradually becoming absorbed within the southern extent of larger-scale troughing moving across eastern Canada. As such, gradual/steady height falls will occur across the Northeast through the period. Upstream, a strong upper low will advance across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region. At the surface, a cold front should move off the New England coast early, leaving a trailing, west-to-east boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic region into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas/western Nebraska with time, ahead of the upper low. Both of these fronts will focus convective development and some severe risk -- particularly from afternoon onward. ...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Substantial uncertainty persists across the Northeast U.S. in terms of severe potential on Wednesday, with ongoing convection -- and possibly some remnant low-end severe risk -- moving across parts of the Northeast. With the cold front expected to be moving offshore of New England early, primary severe risk should reside within a west-to-east corridor near the surface front, extending westward into the Midwest region. As height falls continue across the region, episodes of thunderstorm development can be expected within this corridor through much of the period. Primary risks will be locally damaging gusts and hail. Beyond this general assessment, a more detailed evolution remains difficult to discern at this time, and thus areal adjustments can be expected with subsequent outlooks. ...Northern Plains... Afternoon destabilization is forecast across the northern Plains states, ahead of the advancing cold front. As large-scale ascent increases through late afternoon, isolated storm development is expected over the western Dakotas. With mid-level southwesterlies increasing ahead of the trough, atop low-level southeasterlies, resulting shear will support storm organization -- including supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary risks. As a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains during the evening, an increase in storm coverage -- including potential for some evolution toward an MCS -- is expected. As such -- risk for hail/wind will likely continue through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing will move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, gradually becoming absorbed within the southern extent of larger-scale troughing moving across eastern Canada. As such, gradual/steady height falls will occur across the Northeast through the period. Upstream, a strong upper low will advance across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region. At the surface, a cold front should move off the New England coast early, leaving a trailing, west-to-east boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic region into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas/western Nebraska with time, ahead of the upper low. Both of these fronts will focus convective development and some severe risk -- particularly from afternoon onward. ...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Substantial uncertainty persists across the Northeast U.S. in terms of severe potential on Wednesday, with ongoing convection -- and possibly some remnant low-end severe risk -- moving across parts of the Northeast. With the cold front expected to be moving offshore of New England early, primary severe risk should reside within a west-to-east corridor near the surface front, extending westward into the Midwest region. As height falls continue across the region, episodes of thunderstorm development can be expected within this corridor through much of the period. Primary risks will be locally damaging gusts and hail. Beyond this general assessment, a more detailed evolution remains difficult to discern at this time, and thus areal adjustments can be expected with subsequent outlooks. ...Northern Plains... Afternoon destabilization is forecast across the northern Plains states, ahead of the advancing cold front. As large-scale ascent increases through late afternoon, isolated storm development is expected over the western Dakotas. With mid-level southwesterlies increasing ahead of the trough, atop low-level southeasterlies, resulting shear will support storm organization -- including supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary risks. As a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains during the evening, an increase in storm coverage -- including potential for some evolution toward an MCS -- is expected. As such -- risk for hail/wind will likely continue through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing will move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, gradually becoming absorbed within the southern extent of larger-scale troughing moving across eastern Canada. As such, gradual/steady height falls will occur across the Northeast through the period. Upstream, a strong upper low will advance across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region. At the surface, a cold front should move off the New England coast early, leaving a trailing, west-to-east boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic region into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas/western Nebraska with time, ahead of the upper low. Both of these fronts will focus convective development and some severe risk -- particularly from afternoon onward. ...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Substantial uncertainty persists across the Northeast U.S. in terms of severe potential on Wednesday, with ongoing convection -- and possibly some remnant low-end severe risk -- moving across parts of the Northeast. With the cold front expected to be moving offshore of New England early, primary severe risk should reside within a west-to-east corridor near the surface front, extending westward into the Midwest region. As height falls continue across the region, episodes of thunderstorm development can be expected within this corridor through much of the period. Primary risks will be locally damaging gusts and hail. Beyond this general assessment, a more detailed evolution remains difficult to discern at this time, and thus areal adjustments can be expected with subsequent outlooks. ...Northern Plains... Afternoon destabilization is forecast across the northern Plains states, ahead of the advancing cold front. As large-scale ascent increases through late afternoon, isolated storm development is expected over the western Dakotas. With mid-level southwesterlies increasing ahead of the trough, atop low-level southeasterlies, resulting shear will support storm organization -- including supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary risks. As a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains during the evening, an increase in storm coverage -- including potential for some evolution toward an MCS -- is expected. As such -- risk for hail/wind will likely continue through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing will move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, gradually becoming absorbed within the southern extent of larger-scale troughing moving across eastern Canada. As such, gradual/steady height falls will occur across the Northeast through the period. Upstream, a strong upper low will advance across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region. At the surface, a cold front should move off the New England coast early, leaving a trailing, west-to-east boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic region into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas/western Nebraska with time, ahead of the upper low. Both of these fronts will focus convective development and some severe risk -- particularly from afternoon onward. ...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Substantial uncertainty persists across the Northeast U.S. in terms of severe potential on Wednesday, with ongoing convection -- and possibly some remnant low-end severe risk -- moving across parts of the Northeast. With the cold front expected to be moving offshore of New England early, primary severe risk should reside within a west-to-east corridor near the surface front, extending westward into the Midwest region. As height falls continue across the region, episodes of thunderstorm development can be expected within this corridor through much of the period. Primary risks will be locally damaging gusts and hail. Beyond this general assessment, a more detailed evolution remains difficult to discern at this time, and thus areal adjustments can be expected with subsequent outlooks. ...Northern Plains... Afternoon destabilization is forecast across the northern Plains states, ahead of the advancing cold front. As large-scale ascent increases through late afternoon, isolated storm development is expected over the western Dakotas. With mid-level southwesterlies increasing ahead of the trough, atop low-level southeasterlies, resulting shear will support storm organization -- including supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary risks. As a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains during the evening, an increase in storm coverage -- including potential for some evolution toward an MCS -- is expected. As such -- risk for hail/wind will likely continue through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing will move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, gradually becoming absorbed within the southern extent of larger-scale troughing moving across eastern Canada. As such, gradual/steady height falls will occur across the Northeast through the period. Upstream, a strong upper low will advance across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region. At the surface, a cold front should move off the New England coast early, leaving a trailing, west-to-east boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic region into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas/western Nebraska with time, ahead of the upper low. Both of these fronts will focus convective development and some severe risk -- particularly from afternoon onward. ...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Substantial uncertainty persists across the Northeast U.S. in terms of severe potential on Wednesday, with ongoing convection -- and possibly some remnant low-end severe risk -- moving across parts of the Northeast. With the cold front expected to be moving offshore of New England early, primary severe risk should reside within a west-to-east corridor near the surface front, extending westward into the Midwest region. As height falls continue across the region, episodes of thunderstorm development can be expected within this corridor through much of the period. Primary risks will be locally damaging gusts and hail. Beyond this general assessment, a more detailed evolution remains difficult to discern at this time, and thus areal adjustments can be expected with subsequent outlooks. ...Northern Plains... Afternoon destabilization is forecast across the northern Plains states, ahead of the advancing cold front. As large-scale ascent increases through late afternoon, isolated storm development is expected over the western Dakotas. With mid-level southwesterlies increasing ahead of the trough, atop low-level southeasterlies, resulting shear will support storm organization -- including supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary risks. As a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains during the evening, an increase in storm coverage -- including potential for some evolution toward an MCS -- is expected. As such -- risk for hail/wind will likely continue through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing will move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, gradually becoming absorbed within the southern extent of larger-scale troughing moving across eastern Canada. As such, gradual/steady height falls will occur across the Northeast through the period. Upstream, a strong upper low will advance across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region. At the surface, a cold front should move off the New England coast early, leaving a trailing, west-to-east boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic region into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas/western Nebraska with time, ahead of the upper low. Both of these fronts will focus convective development and some severe risk -- particularly from afternoon onward. ...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Substantial uncertainty persists across the Northeast U.S. in terms of severe potential on Wednesday, with ongoing convection -- and possibly some remnant low-end severe risk -- moving across parts of the Northeast. With the cold front expected to be moving offshore of New England early, primary severe risk should reside within a west-to-east corridor near the surface front, extending westward into the Midwest region. As height falls continue across the region, episodes of thunderstorm development can be expected within this corridor through much of the period. Primary risks will be locally damaging gusts and hail. Beyond this general assessment, a more detailed evolution remains difficult to discern at this time, and thus areal adjustments can be expected with subsequent outlooks. ...Northern Plains... Afternoon destabilization is forecast across the northern Plains states, ahead of the advancing cold front. As large-scale ascent increases through late afternoon, isolated storm development is expected over the western Dakotas. With mid-level southwesterlies increasing ahead of the trough, atop low-level southeasterlies, resulting shear will support storm organization -- including supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary risks. As a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains during the evening, an increase in storm coverage -- including potential for some evolution toward an MCS -- is expected. As such -- risk for hail/wind will likely continue through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing will move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, gradually becoming absorbed within the southern extent of larger-scale troughing moving across eastern Canada. As such, gradual/steady height falls will occur across the Northeast through the period. Upstream, a strong upper low will advance across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region. At the surface, a cold front should move off the New England coast early, leaving a trailing, west-to-east boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic region into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas/western Nebraska with time, ahead of the upper low. Both of these fronts will focus convective development and some severe risk -- particularly from afternoon onward. ...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Substantial uncertainty persists across the Northeast U.S. in terms of severe potential on Wednesday, with ongoing convection -- and possibly some remnant low-end severe risk -- moving across parts of the Northeast. With the cold front expected to be moving offshore of New England early, primary severe risk should reside within a west-to-east corridor near the surface front, extending westward into the Midwest region. As height falls continue across the region, episodes of thunderstorm development can be expected within this corridor through much of the period. Primary risks will be locally damaging gusts and hail. Beyond this general assessment, a more detailed evolution remains difficult to discern at this time, and thus areal adjustments can be expected with subsequent outlooks. ...Northern Plains... Afternoon destabilization is forecast across the northern Plains states, ahead of the advancing cold front. As large-scale ascent increases through late afternoon, isolated storm development is expected over the western Dakotas. With mid-level southwesterlies increasing ahead of the trough, atop low-level southeasterlies, resulting shear will support storm organization -- including supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary risks. As a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains during the evening, an increase in storm coverage -- including potential for some evolution toward an MCS -- is expected. As such -- risk for hail/wind will likely continue through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing will move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, gradually becoming absorbed within the southern extent of larger-scale troughing moving across eastern Canada. As such, gradual/steady height falls will occur across the Northeast through the period. Upstream, a strong upper low will advance across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region. At the surface, a cold front should move off the New England coast early, leaving a trailing, west-to-east boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic region into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas/western Nebraska with time, ahead of the upper low. Both of these fronts will focus convective development and some severe risk -- particularly from afternoon onward. ...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Substantial uncertainty persists across the Northeast U.S. in terms of severe potential on Wednesday, with ongoing convection -- and possibly some remnant low-end severe risk -- moving across parts of the Northeast. With the cold front expected to be moving offshore of New England early, primary severe risk should reside within a west-to-east corridor near the surface front, extending westward into the Midwest region. As height falls continue across the region, episodes of thunderstorm development can be expected within this corridor through much of the period. Primary risks will be locally damaging gusts and hail. Beyond this general assessment, a more detailed evolution remains difficult to discern at this time, and thus areal adjustments can be expected with subsequent outlooks. ...Northern Plains... Afternoon destabilization is forecast across the northern Plains states, ahead of the advancing cold front. As large-scale ascent increases through late afternoon, isolated storm development is expected over the western Dakotas. With mid-level southwesterlies increasing ahead of the trough, atop low-level southeasterlies, resulting shear will support storm organization -- including supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary risks. As a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains during the evening, an increase in storm coverage -- including potential for some evolution toward an MCS -- is expected. As such -- risk for hail/wind will likely continue through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing will move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, gradually becoming absorbed within the southern extent of larger-scale troughing moving across eastern Canada. As such, gradual/steady height falls will occur across the Northeast through the period. Upstream, a strong upper low will advance across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region. At the surface, a cold front should move off the New England coast early, leaving a trailing, west-to-east boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic region into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas/western Nebraska with time, ahead of the upper low. Both of these fronts will focus convective development and some severe risk -- particularly from afternoon onward. ...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Substantial uncertainty persists across the Northeast U.S. in terms of severe potential on Wednesday, with ongoing convection -- and possibly some remnant low-end severe risk -- moving across parts of the Northeast. With the cold front expected to be moving offshore of New England early, primary severe risk should reside within a west-to-east corridor near the surface front, extending westward into the Midwest region. As height falls continue across the region, episodes of thunderstorm development can be expected within this corridor through much of the period. Primary risks will be locally damaging gusts and hail. Beyond this general assessment, a more detailed evolution remains difficult to discern at this time, and thus areal adjustments can be expected with subsequent outlooks. ...Northern Plains... Afternoon destabilization is forecast across the northern Plains states, ahead of the advancing cold front. As large-scale ascent increases through late afternoon, isolated storm development is expected over the western Dakotas. With mid-level southwesterlies increasing ahead of the trough, atop low-level southeasterlies, resulting shear will support storm organization -- including supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary risks. As a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains during the evening, an increase in storm coverage -- including potential for some evolution toward an MCS -- is expected. As such -- risk for hail/wind will likely continue through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing will move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, gradually becoming absorbed within the southern extent of larger-scale troughing moving across eastern Canada. As such, gradual/steady height falls will occur across the Northeast through the period. Upstream, a strong upper low will advance across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region. At the surface, a cold front should move off the New England coast early, leaving a trailing, west-to-east boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic region into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas/western Nebraska with time, ahead of the upper low. Both of these fronts will focus convective development and some severe risk -- particularly from afternoon onward. ...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Substantial uncertainty persists across the Northeast U.S. in terms of severe potential on Wednesday, with ongoing convection -- and possibly some remnant low-end severe risk -- moving across parts of the Northeast. With the cold front expected to be moving offshore of New England early, primary severe risk should reside within a west-to-east corridor near the surface front, extending westward into the Midwest region. As height falls continue across the region, episodes of thunderstorm development can be expected within this corridor through much of the period. Primary risks will be locally damaging gusts and hail. Beyond this general assessment, a more detailed evolution remains difficult to discern at this time, and thus areal adjustments can be expected with subsequent outlooks. ...Northern Plains... Afternoon destabilization is forecast across the northern Plains states, ahead of the advancing cold front. As large-scale ascent increases through late afternoon, isolated storm development is expected over the western Dakotas. With mid-level southwesterlies increasing ahead of the trough, atop low-level southeasterlies, resulting shear will support storm organization -- including supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary risks. As a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains during the evening, an increase in storm coverage -- including potential for some evolution toward an MCS -- is expected. As such -- risk for hail/wind will likely continue through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing will move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, gradually becoming absorbed within the southern extent of larger-scale troughing moving across eastern Canada. As such, gradual/steady height falls will occur across the Northeast through the period. Upstream, a strong upper low will advance across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region. At the surface, a cold front should move off the New England coast early, leaving a trailing, west-to-east boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic region into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas/western Nebraska with time, ahead of the upper low. Both of these fronts will focus convective development and some severe risk -- particularly from afternoon onward. ...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Substantial uncertainty persists across the Northeast U.S. in terms of severe potential on Wednesday, with ongoing convection -- and possibly some remnant low-end severe risk -- moving across parts of the Northeast. With the cold front expected to be moving offshore of New England early, primary severe risk should reside within a west-to-east corridor near the surface front, extending westward into the Midwest region. As height falls continue across the region, episodes of thunderstorm development can be expected within this corridor through much of the period. Primary risks will be locally damaging gusts and hail. Beyond this general assessment, a more detailed evolution remains difficult to discern at this time, and thus areal adjustments can be expected with subsequent outlooks. ...Northern Plains... Afternoon destabilization is forecast across the northern Plains states, ahead of the advancing cold front. As large-scale ascent increases through late afternoon, isolated storm development is expected over the western Dakotas. With mid-level southwesterlies increasing ahead of the trough, atop low-level southeasterlies, resulting shear will support storm organization -- including supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary risks. As a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains during the evening, an increase in storm coverage -- including potential for some evolution toward an MCS -- is expected. As such -- risk for hail/wind will likely continue through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more