Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 27 19:00:19 UTC 2024.

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW RFD TO 15 SSE JVL TO 35 NW BEH. ..JEWELL..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-097-111-272040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE LAKE MCHENRY LMZ740-777-272040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW RFD TO 15 SSE JVL TO 35 NW BEH. ..JEWELL..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-097-111-272040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE LAKE MCHENRY LMZ740-777-272040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW RFD TO 15 SSE JVL TO 35 NW BEH. ..JEWELL..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-097-111-272040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE LAKE MCHENRY LMZ740-777-272040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW RFD TO 15 SSE JVL TO 35 NW BEH. ..JEWELL..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-097-111-272040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE LAKE MCHENRY LMZ740-777-272040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW RFD TO 15 SSE JVL TO 35 NW BEH. ..JEWELL..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-097-111-272040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE LAKE MCHENRY LMZ740-777-272040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 655 SEVERE TSTM IL WI LM 271705Z - 272100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 655 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Southeast Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 1205 PM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of severe storms will continue to move across southeast Wisconsin early this afternoon, with additional development possible into northern Illinois. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Milwaukee WI to 40 miles east of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0656 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE MKE TO 50 NW MKG TO 40 NNW MKG TO 35 S MBL TO 35 SSE MBL TO 35 SE MBL TO 30 E MBL TO 20 SSW TVC TO 20 NW TVC. ..JEWELL..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC005-015-025-035-037-039-045-055-057-067-073-077-079-081-107- 113-117-121-123-127-133-139-143-159-165-271940- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGAN BARRY CALHOUN CLARE CLINTON CRAWFORD EATON GRAND TRAVERSE GRATIOT IONIA ISABELLA KALAMAZOO KALKASKA KENT MECOSTA MISSAUKEE MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OCEANA OSCEOLA OTTAWA ROSCOMMON VAN BUREN WEXFORD LMZ844-845-846-847-848-870-872-874-876-878-271940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI Read more

WW 0656 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE MKE TO 50 NW MKG TO 40 NNW MKG TO 35 S MBL TO 35 SSE MBL TO 35 SE MBL TO 30 E MBL TO 20 SSW TVC TO 20 NW TVC. ..JEWELL..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC005-015-025-035-037-039-045-055-057-067-073-077-079-081-107- 113-117-121-123-127-133-139-143-159-165-271940- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGAN BARRY CALHOUN CLARE CLINTON CRAWFORD EATON GRAND TRAVERSE GRATIOT IONIA ISABELLA KALAMAZOO KALKASKA KENT MECOSTA MISSAUKEE MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OCEANA OSCEOLA OTTAWA ROSCOMMON VAN BUREN WEXFORD LMZ844-845-846-847-848-870-872-874-876-878-271940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI Read more

MD 2013 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Areas affected...southeast Wisconsin...northern Illinois...western Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271625Z - 271900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms may continue to increase in coverage and intensity along a weak boundary, from eastern WI into northern IL. Scattered strong to severe gusts will be possible. DISCUSSION...Storms which formed in a semi-elevated regime over central WI have continued to expand north-south in coverage, with recently reported gusts just below severe limits (40-50 kt range). Addition convection is now forming southward along a subtle wind shift into southern WI, and additional storms are anticipated into northern IL. The air mass is quite moist and unstable over the entire area, and low-level lapse rates will continue to steepen over the next several hours. Although shear is weak, the ample precipitable water, MUCAPE, and existing forcing mechanisms (outflow boundary and wind shift to the southwest) suggest additional strong to severe gusts will develop later this afternoon. While convection near Green Bay will soon move offshore, westerly 925/850 mb winds may maintain an unstable feed of air above the cooler lake surface. If storms can maintain composure over Lake MI, the heated air over western Lower MI may then support severe gusts. Farther south into northern IL and extending into southwest Lower MI, the severe risk will is conditional on enough convection forming along the weak boundary. Given a very moist air mass with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints, and current satellite trends, the thinking is that this may indeed be the case, and trends will be closely monitored. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed over parts of the region this afternoon. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 43208515 42298568 41618640 41358725 41308782 41318876 41508937 41958963 42568925 43128882 43898837 44458817 44638796 45138567 45038503 44558471 43978474 43208515 Read more

WW 0656 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0656 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...AND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of Ohio to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Northern Plains... A robust upper cyclone will spread east from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Wednesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Dakotas, in conjunction with stronger height falls, from late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains during the day, resulting in an increasing baroclinic zone across the northern Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest ahead of a westward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer moisture will support a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings indication supercell wind profile, with greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail, some potential to 3 inch diameter, will be possible in addition to severe wind gusts beginning near 00z and lingering into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...AND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of Ohio to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Northern Plains... A robust upper cyclone will spread east from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Wednesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Dakotas, in conjunction with stronger height falls, from late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains during the day, resulting in an increasing baroclinic zone across the northern Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest ahead of a westward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer moisture will support a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings indication supercell wind profile, with greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail, some potential to 3 inch diameter, will be possible in addition to severe wind gusts beginning near 00z and lingering into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...AND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of Ohio to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Northern Plains... A robust upper cyclone will spread east from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Wednesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Dakotas, in conjunction with stronger height falls, from late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains during the day, resulting in an increasing baroclinic zone across the northern Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest ahead of a westward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer moisture will support a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings indication supercell wind profile, with greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail, some potential to 3 inch diameter, will be possible in addition to severe wind gusts beginning near 00z and lingering into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...AND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of Ohio to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Northern Plains... A robust upper cyclone will spread east from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Wednesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Dakotas, in conjunction with stronger height falls, from late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains during the day, resulting in an increasing baroclinic zone across the northern Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest ahead of a westward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer moisture will support a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings indication supercell wind profile, with greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail, some potential to 3 inch diameter, will be possible in addition to severe wind gusts beginning near 00z and lingering into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more