Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern/central Wyoming with this update. While marginal fuels should largely mitigate the fire-weather threat (as described below), Critical-caliber winds/RH (sustained 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH) will still pose some risk -- especially over any areas that missed out on precipitation during the last few weeks. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Rockies and eject into the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting robust surface lee troughing across the northern Plains states. Strong isallobaric flow is thus expected over portions of the northern and central Rockies, particularly eastern Montana, as well as central into eastern Wyoming. In both areas, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph amid 15-25 percent RH are expected during the afternoon. Such conditions typically necessitate at least Elevated to perhaps Critical highlights. However, fuel receptiveness in these regions is marginal at best, especially considering rainfall over the past week. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern/central Wyoming with this update. While marginal fuels should largely mitigate the fire-weather threat (as described below), Critical-caliber winds/RH (sustained 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH) will still pose some risk -- especially over any areas that missed out on precipitation during the last few weeks. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Rockies and eject into the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting robust surface lee troughing across the northern Plains states. Strong isallobaric flow is thus expected over portions of the northern and central Rockies, particularly eastern Montana, as well as central into eastern Wyoming. In both areas, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph amid 15-25 percent RH are expected during the afternoon. Such conditions typically necessitate at least Elevated to perhaps Critical highlights. However, fuel receptiveness in these regions is marginal at best, especially considering rainfall over the past week. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern/central Wyoming with this update. While marginal fuels should largely mitigate the fire-weather threat (as described below), Critical-caliber winds/RH (sustained 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH) will still pose some risk -- especially over any areas that missed out on precipitation during the last few weeks. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Rockies and eject into the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting robust surface lee troughing across the northern Plains states. Strong isallobaric flow is thus expected over portions of the northern and central Rockies, particularly eastern Montana, as well as central into eastern Wyoming. In both areas, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph amid 15-25 percent RH are expected during the afternoon. Such conditions typically necessitate at least Elevated to perhaps Critical highlights. However, fuel receptiveness in these regions is marginal at best, especially considering rainfall over the past week. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern/central Wyoming with this update. While marginal fuels should largely mitigate the fire-weather threat (as described below), Critical-caliber winds/RH (sustained 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH) will still pose some risk -- especially over any areas that missed out on precipitation during the last few weeks. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Rockies and eject into the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting robust surface lee troughing across the northern Plains states. Strong isallobaric flow is thus expected over portions of the northern and central Rockies, particularly eastern Montana, as well as central into eastern Wyoming. In both areas, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph amid 15-25 percent RH are expected during the afternoon. Such conditions typically necessitate at least Elevated to perhaps Critical highlights. However, fuel receptiveness in these regions is marginal at best, especially considering rainfall over the past week. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern/central Wyoming with this update. While marginal fuels should largely mitigate the fire-weather threat (as described below), Critical-caliber winds/RH (sustained 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH) will still pose some risk -- especially over any areas that missed out on precipitation during the last few weeks. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Rockies and eject into the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting robust surface lee troughing across the northern Plains states. Strong isallobaric flow is thus expected over portions of the northern and central Rockies, particularly eastern Montana, as well as central into eastern Wyoming. In both areas, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph amid 15-25 percent RH are expected during the afternoon. Such conditions typically necessitate at least Elevated to perhaps Critical highlights. However, fuel receptiveness in these regions is marginal at best, especially considering rainfall over the past week. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern/central Wyoming with this update. While marginal fuels should largely mitigate the fire-weather threat (as described below), Critical-caliber winds/RH (sustained 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH) will still pose some risk -- especially over any areas that missed out on precipitation during the last few weeks. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Rockies and eject into the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting robust surface lee troughing across the northern Plains states. Strong isallobaric flow is thus expected over portions of the northern and central Rockies, particularly eastern Montana, as well as central into eastern Wyoming. In both areas, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph amid 15-25 percent RH are expected during the afternoon. Such conditions typically necessitate at least Elevated to perhaps Critical highlights. However, fuel receptiveness in these regions is marginal at best, especially considering rainfall over the past week. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern/central Wyoming with this update. While marginal fuels should largely mitigate the fire-weather threat (as described below), Critical-caliber winds/RH (sustained 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH) will still pose some risk -- especially over any areas that missed out on precipitation during the last few weeks. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Rockies and eject into the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting robust surface lee troughing across the northern Plains states. Strong isallobaric flow is thus expected over portions of the northern and central Rockies, particularly eastern Montana, as well as central into eastern Wyoming. In both areas, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph amid 15-25 percent RH are expected during the afternoon. Such conditions typically necessitate at least Elevated to perhaps Critical highlights. However, fuel receptiveness in these regions is marginal at best, especially considering rainfall over the past week. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern/central Wyoming with this update. While marginal fuels should largely mitigate the fire-weather threat (as described below), Critical-caliber winds/RH (sustained 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH) will still pose some risk -- especially over any areas that missed out on precipitation during the last few weeks. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Rockies and eject into the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting robust surface lee troughing across the northern Plains states. Strong isallobaric flow is thus expected over portions of the northern and central Rockies, particularly eastern Montana, as well as central into eastern Wyoming. In both areas, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph amid 15-25 percent RH are expected during the afternoon. Such conditions typically necessitate at least Elevated to perhaps Critical highlights. However, fuel receptiveness in these regions is marginal at best, especially considering rainfall over the past week. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern/central Wyoming with this update. While marginal fuels should largely mitigate the fire-weather threat (as described below), Critical-caliber winds/RH (sustained 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH) will still pose some risk -- especially over any areas that missed out on precipitation during the last few weeks. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Rockies and eject into the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting robust surface lee troughing across the northern Plains states. Strong isallobaric flow is thus expected over portions of the northern and central Rockies, particularly eastern Montana, as well as central into eastern Wyoming. In both areas, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph amid 15-25 percent RH are expected during the afternoon. Such conditions typically necessitate at least Elevated to perhaps Critical highlights. However, fuel receptiveness in these regions is marginal at best, especially considering rainfall over the past week. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern/central Wyoming with this update. While marginal fuels should largely mitigate the fire-weather threat (as described below), Critical-caliber winds/RH (sustained 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH) will still pose some risk -- especially over any areas that missed out on precipitation during the last few weeks. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Rockies and eject into the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting robust surface lee troughing across the northern Plains states. Strong isallobaric flow is thus expected over portions of the northern and central Rockies, particularly eastern Montana, as well as central into eastern Wyoming. In both areas, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph amid 15-25 percent RH are expected during the afternoon. Such conditions typically necessitate at least Elevated to perhaps Critical highlights. However, fuel receptiveness in these regions is marginal at best, especially considering rainfall over the past week. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern/central Wyoming with this update. While marginal fuels should largely mitigate the fire-weather threat (as described below), Critical-caliber winds/RH (sustained 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH) will still pose some risk -- especially over any areas that missed out on precipitation during the last few weeks. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Rockies and eject into the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting robust surface lee troughing across the northern Plains states. Strong isallobaric flow is thus expected over portions of the northern and central Rockies, particularly eastern Montana, as well as central into eastern Wyoming. In both areas, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph amid 15-25 percent RH are expected during the afternoon. Such conditions typically necessitate at least Elevated to perhaps Critical highlights. However, fuel receptiveness in these regions is marginal at best, especially considering rainfall over the past week. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more