Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern temporarily will become less amplified over the CONUS, as an anticyclone now over the mid Mississippi Valley region weakens, and a nearly zonal northern stream takes shape across most of the northern tier of states. This will occur downstream from a strong synoptic-scale cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southwestern/near-coastal BC. The 500-mb low should move east-southeastward to the northern Rockies by 12Z tomorrow, with trough and cyclonic flow southward to the northern Great Basin. Downstream, a strong shortwave trough was apparent over the western Dakotas to the NE Panhandle, with embedded circulation center near DIK. This perturbation is forecast to deamplify gradually, but still remain a well-defined shortwave trough, as it moves eastward to the Lake Superior/northern Lake Michigan region by the end of the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low near the end of the Keweenaw Peninsula in Upper MI, with cold front extending diffusely southwestward through post-outflow air across northern WI, southern MN, central NE, to parts of western KS and eastern CO. The Great Lakes low should migrate eastward along the front to ME by 12Z tomorrow. The front is expected to reach Lake Huron, central Lower MI, southeastern WI, northern MO, central KS, and southwestern CO by 00Z, preceded by several outflow boundaries. By 12Z, the front should extend from the ME low across central/western NY, Lake Ontario, northern IN, and central MO, becoming quasistationary from there to central KS, and a warm front over eastern CO. The latter will occur in response to return flow setting up ahead of the Northwest cyclone aloft, with strengthening lee troughing between the front and a low over eastern MT. That low will be attached to another, stronger cold front emerging from the Rockies, and moving eastward over central/southwestern MT by 12Z. ...Great Lakes to central Plains... Widely scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms (in episodic clusters) are expected to cross the outlook area through the period, offering damaging to severe gusts, occasional large hail, and a marginal tornado threat. Within the broader 15%/"slight risk" area, one or more corridors of greater severe-wind threat may develop in concert with the best-organized portions of any cold-pool-driven, forward-propagational complex(es) that may develop. However, specific tracks of such axial maxima are still too uncertain at this time, due to dependence on iterative mesoscale factors. A residual arc of thunderstorms over Lake Huron and southeastern Lower MI has left an outflow boundary across southern Lower MI to south-central WI to near the southeast tip of MN, where it is being intercepted from the west by fresh outflow from another complex moving northeastward over western WI. The relatively stable airmass north of the first MCS' outflow boundary is shallow and subject to destabilization from both warm advection and (later this morning) diurnal heating, lending some potential for expansion or intensification of any part of the WI complex that still is present and extends into the increasingly favorable theta-e. Meanwhile, the outflow in/from the second ongoing complex may: 1. Produce isolated severe gusts through the shallow stable outflow layer over WI in the near term, 2. Modify favorably across parts of WI/IL/lower MI today (the latter assuming it reaches Lower MI to reinforce the first outflow pool) and 3. Focus additional development an uncertain distance farther south -- possibly including upscale growth into more complex(es), today into this evening. Overall, the environment along and south of the outflow boundaries should be favorable thermodynamically, with strong diabatic heating and rich moisture (70s F surface dewpoints being common). In satellite imagery, a plume of moisture with origins in the Southwest monsoon -- and still connected to MCS activity in western MX -- extends near an ELP-CAO-GLD-FSD axis. A residual EML to the east of this, and around the northwestern quadrant of the anticyclone, results in a plume of warmer 700-mb temperatures (per last night's 00Z charts and available soundings so far this morning), as well as somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates and slightly stronger capping atop the moist boundary layer. This contributes to the potential for areas of 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE along and south of the boundary(s) from parts of WI and Lower MI southwestward into northern MO. While such strong buoyancy will support upscale growth, longevity of clusters also is uncertain due to lack of a supportive LLJ. This far southeast of the main mid/upper-level shortwave trough, flow aloft and deep shear will be rather weak, so steering flow will be less of an influence on convective motion than internal cold pools and foregoing mesoscale boundary alignment. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front over the lower Missouri Valley into KS, shear and CAPE both will be weaker, but still with enough instability to support isolated to scattered afternoon development. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with pulse gusts and hail near severe limits possible. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern temporarily will become less amplified over the CONUS, as an anticyclone now over the mid Mississippi Valley region weakens, and a nearly zonal northern stream takes shape across most of the northern tier of states. This will occur downstream from a strong synoptic-scale cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southwestern/near-coastal BC. The 500-mb low should move east-southeastward to the northern Rockies by 12Z tomorrow, with trough and cyclonic flow southward to the northern Great Basin. Downstream, a strong shortwave trough was apparent over the western Dakotas to the NE Panhandle, with embedded circulation center near DIK. This perturbation is forecast to deamplify gradually, but still remain a well-defined shortwave trough, as it moves eastward to the Lake Superior/northern Lake Michigan region by the end of the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low near the end of the Keweenaw Peninsula in Upper MI, with cold front extending diffusely southwestward through post-outflow air across northern WI, southern MN, central NE, to parts of western KS and eastern CO. The Great Lakes low should migrate eastward along the front to ME by 12Z tomorrow. The front is expected to reach Lake Huron, central Lower MI, southeastern WI, northern MO, central KS, and southwestern CO by 00Z, preceded by several outflow boundaries. By 12Z, the front should extend from the ME low across central/western NY, Lake Ontario, northern IN, and central MO, becoming quasistationary from there to central KS, and a warm front over eastern CO. The latter will occur in response to return flow setting up ahead of the Northwest cyclone aloft, with strengthening lee troughing between the front and a low over eastern MT. That low will be attached to another, stronger cold front emerging from the Rockies, and moving eastward over central/southwestern MT by 12Z. ...Great Lakes to central Plains... Widely scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms (in episodic clusters) are expected to cross the outlook area through the period, offering damaging to severe gusts, occasional large hail, and a marginal tornado threat. Within the broader 15%/"slight risk" area, one or more corridors of greater severe-wind threat may develop in concert with the best-organized portions of any cold-pool-driven, forward-propagational complex(es) that may develop. However, specific tracks of such axial maxima are still too uncertain at this time, due to dependence on iterative mesoscale factors. A residual arc of thunderstorms over Lake Huron and southeastern Lower MI has left an outflow boundary across southern Lower MI to south-central WI to near the southeast tip of MN, where it is being intercepted from the west by fresh outflow from another complex moving northeastward over western WI. The relatively stable airmass north of the first MCS' outflow boundary is shallow and subject to destabilization from both warm advection and (later this morning) diurnal heating, lending some potential for expansion or intensification of any part of the WI complex that still is present and extends into the increasingly favorable theta-e. Meanwhile, the outflow in/from the second ongoing complex may: 1. Produce isolated severe gusts through the shallow stable outflow layer over WI in the near term, 2. Modify favorably across parts of WI/IL/lower MI today (the latter assuming it reaches Lower MI to reinforce the first outflow pool) and 3. Focus additional development an uncertain distance farther south -- possibly including upscale growth into more complex(es), today into this evening. Overall, the environment along and south of the outflow boundaries should be favorable thermodynamically, with strong diabatic heating and rich moisture (70s F surface dewpoints being common). In satellite imagery, a plume of moisture with origins in the Southwest monsoon -- and still connected to MCS activity in western MX -- extends near an ELP-CAO-GLD-FSD axis. A residual EML to the east of this, and around the northwestern quadrant of the anticyclone, results in a plume of warmer 700-mb temperatures (per last night's 00Z charts and available soundings so far this morning), as well as somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates and slightly stronger capping atop the moist boundary layer. This contributes to the potential for areas of 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE along and south of the boundary(s) from parts of WI and Lower MI southwestward into northern MO. While such strong buoyancy will support upscale growth, longevity of clusters also is uncertain due to lack of a supportive LLJ. This far southeast of the main mid/upper-level shortwave trough, flow aloft and deep shear will be rather weak, so steering flow will be less of an influence on convective motion than internal cold pools and foregoing mesoscale boundary alignment. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front over the lower Missouri Valley into KS, shear and CAPE both will be weaker, but still with enough instability to support isolated to scattered afternoon development. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with pulse gusts and hail near severe limits possible. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern temporarily will become less amplified over the CONUS, as an anticyclone now over the mid Mississippi Valley region weakens, and a nearly zonal northern stream takes shape across most of the northern tier of states. This will occur downstream from a strong synoptic-scale cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southwestern/near-coastal BC. The 500-mb low should move east-southeastward to the northern Rockies by 12Z tomorrow, with trough and cyclonic flow southward to the northern Great Basin. Downstream, a strong shortwave trough was apparent over the western Dakotas to the NE Panhandle, with embedded circulation center near DIK. This perturbation is forecast to deamplify gradually, but still remain a well-defined shortwave trough, as it moves eastward to the Lake Superior/northern Lake Michigan region by the end of the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low near the end of the Keweenaw Peninsula in Upper MI, with cold front extending diffusely southwestward through post-outflow air across northern WI, southern MN, central NE, to parts of western KS and eastern CO. The Great Lakes low should migrate eastward along the front to ME by 12Z tomorrow. The front is expected to reach Lake Huron, central Lower MI, southeastern WI, northern MO, central KS, and southwestern CO by 00Z, preceded by several outflow boundaries. By 12Z, the front should extend from the ME low across central/western NY, Lake Ontario, northern IN, and central MO, becoming quasistationary from there to central KS, and a warm front over eastern CO. The latter will occur in response to return flow setting up ahead of the Northwest cyclone aloft, with strengthening lee troughing between the front and a low over eastern MT. That low will be attached to another, stronger cold front emerging from the Rockies, and moving eastward over central/southwestern MT by 12Z. ...Great Lakes to central Plains... Widely scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms (in episodic clusters) are expected to cross the outlook area through the period, offering damaging to severe gusts, occasional large hail, and a marginal tornado threat. Within the broader 15%/"slight risk" area, one or more corridors of greater severe-wind threat may develop in concert with the best-organized portions of any cold-pool-driven, forward-propagational complex(es) that may develop. However, specific tracks of such axial maxima are still too uncertain at this time, due to dependence on iterative mesoscale factors. A residual arc of thunderstorms over Lake Huron and southeastern Lower MI has left an outflow boundary across southern Lower MI to south-central WI to near the southeast tip of MN, where it is being intercepted from the west by fresh outflow from another complex moving northeastward over western WI. The relatively stable airmass north of the first MCS' outflow boundary is shallow and subject to destabilization from both warm advection and (later this morning) diurnal heating, lending some potential for expansion or intensification of any part of the WI complex that still is present and extends into the increasingly favorable theta-e. Meanwhile, the outflow in/from the second ongoing complex may: 1. Produce isolated severe gusts through the shallow stable outflow layer over WI in the near term, 2. Modify favorably across parts of WI/IL/lower MI today (the latter assuming it reaches Lower MI to reinforce the first outflow pool) and 3. Focus additional development an uncertain distance farther south -- possibly including upscale growth into more complex(es), today into this evening. Overall, the environment along and south of the outflow boundaries should be favorable thermodynamically, with strong diabatic heating and rich moisture (70s F surface dewpoints being common). In satellite imagery, a plume of moisture with origins in the Southwest monsoon -- and still connected to MCS activity in western MX -- extends near an ELP-CAO-GLD-FSD axis. A residual EML to the east of this, and around the northwestern quadrant of the anticyclone, results in a plume of warmer 700-mb temperatures (per last night's 00Z charts and available soundings so far this morning), as well as somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates and slightly stronger capping atop the moist boundary layer. This contributes to the potential for areas of 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE along and south of the boundary(s) from parts of WI and Lower MI southwestward into northern MO. While such strong buoyancy will support upscale growth, longevity of clusters also is uncertain due to lack of a supportive LLJ. This far southeast of the main mid/upper-level shortwave trough, flow aloft and deep shear will be rather weak, so steering flow will be less of an influence on convective motion than internal cold pools and foregoing mesoscale boundary alignment. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front over the lower Missouri Valley into KS, shear and CAPE both will be weaker, but still with enough instability to support isolated to scattered afternoon development. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with pulse gusts and hail near severe limits possible. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern temporarily will become less amplified over the CONUS, as an anticyclone now over the mid Mississippi Valley region weakens, and a nearly zonal northern stream takes shape across most of the northern tier of states. This will occur downstream from a strong synoptic-scale cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southwestern/near-coastal BC. The 500-mb low should move east-southeastward to the northern Rockies by 12Z tomorrow, with trough and cyclonic flow southward to the northern Great Basin. Downstream, a strong shortwave trough was apparent over the western Dakotas to the NE Panhandle, with embedded circulation center near DIK. This perturbation is forecast to deamplify gradually, but still remain a well-defined shortwave trough, as it moves eastward to the Lake Superior/northern Lake Michigan region by the end of the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low near the end of the Keweenaw Peninsula in Upper MI, with cold front extending diffusely southwestward through post-outflow air across northern WI, southern MN, central NE, to parts of western KS and eastern CO. The Great Lakes low should migrate eastward along the front to ME by 12Z tomorrow. The front is expected to reach Lake Huron, central Lower MI, southeastern WI, northern MO, central KS, and southwestern CO by 00Z, preceded by several outflow boundaries. By 12Z, the front should extend from the ME low across central/western NY, Lake Ontario, northern IN, and central MO, becoming quasistationary from there to central KS, and a warm front over eastern CO. The latter will occur in response to return flow setting up ahead of the Northwest cyclone aloft, with strengthening lee troughing between the front and a low over eastern MT. That low will be attached to another, stronger cold front emerging from the Rockies, and moving eastward over central/southwestern MT by 12Z. ...Great Lakes to central Plains... Widely scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms (in episodic clusters) are expected to cross the outlook area through the period, offering damaging to severe gusts, occasional large hail, and a marginal tornado threat. Within the broader 15%/"slight risk" area, one or more corridors of greater severe-wind threat may develop in concert with the best-organized portions of any cold-pool-driven, forward-propagational complex(es) that may develop. However, specific tracks of such axial maxima are still too uncertain at this time, due to dependence on iterative mesoscale factors. A residual arc of thunderstorms over Lake Huron and southeastern Lower MI has left an outflow boundary across southern Lower MI to south-central WI to near the southeast tip of MN, where it is being intercepted from the west by fresh outflow from another complex moving northeastward over western WI. The relatively stable airmass north of the first MCS' outflow boundary is shallow and subject to destabilization from both warm advection and (later this morning) diurnal heating, lending some potential for expansion or intensification of any part of the WI complex that still is present and extends into the increasingly favorable theta-e. Meanwhile, the outflow in/from the second ongoing complex may: 1. Produce isolated severe gusts through the shallow stable outflow layer over WI in the near term, 2. Modify favorably across parts of WI/IL/lower MI today (the latter assuming it reaches Lower MI to reinforce the first outflow pool) and 3. Focus additional development an uncertain distance farther south -- possibly including upscale growth into more complex(es), today into this evening. Overall, the environment along and south of the outflow boundaries should be favorable thermodynamically, with strong diabatic heating and rich moisture (70s F surface dewpoints being common). In satellite imagery, a plume of moisture with origins in the Southwest monsoon -- and still connected to MCS activity in western MX -- extends near an ELP-CAO-GLD-FSD axis. A residual EML to the east of this, and around the northwestern quadrant of the anticyclone, results in a plume of warmer 700-mb temperatures (per last night's 00Z charts and available soundings so far this morning), as well as somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates and slightly stronger capping atop the moist boundary layer. This contributes to the potential for areas of 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE along and south of the boundary(s) from parts of WI and Lower MI southwestward into northern MO. While such strong buoyancy will support upscale growth, longevity of clusters also is uncertain due to lack of a supportive LLJ. This far southeast of the main mid/upper-level shortwave trough, flow aloft and deep shear will be rather weak, so steering flow will be less of an influence on convective motion than internal cold pools and foregoing mesoscale boundary alignment. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front over the lower Missouri Valley into KS, shear and CAPE both will be weaker, but still with enough instability to support isolated to scattered afternoon development. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with pulse gusts and hail near severe limits possible. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern temporarily will become less amplified over the CONUS, as an anticyclone now over the mid Mississippi Valley region weakens, and a nearly zonal northern stream takes shape across most of the northern tier of states. This will occur downstream from a strong synoptic-scale cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southwestern/near-coastal BC. The 500-mb low should move east-southeastward to the northern Rockies by 12Z tomorrow, with trough and cyclonic flow southward to the northern Great Basin. Downstream, a strong shortwave trough was apparent over the western Dakotas to the NE Panhandle, with embedded circulation center near DIK. This perturbation is forecast to deamplify gradually, but still remain a well-defined shortwave trough, as it moves eastward to the Lake Superior/northern Lake Michigan region by the end of the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low near the end of the Keweenaw Peninsula in Upper MI, with cold front extending diffusely southwestward through post-outflow air across northern WI, southern MN, central NE, to parts of western KS and eastern CO. The Great Lakes low should migrate eastward along the front to ME by 12Z tomorrow. The front is expected to reach Lake Huron, central Lower MI, southeastern WI, northern MO, central KS, and southwestern CO by 00Z, preceded by several outflow boundaries. By 12Z, the front should extend from the ME low across central/western NY, Lake Ontario, northern IN, and central MO, becoming quasistationary from there to central KS, and a warm front over eastern CO. The latter will occur in response to return flow setting up ahead of the Northwest cyclone aloft, with strengthening lee troughing between the front and a low over eastern MT. That low will be attached to another, stronger cold front emerging from the Rockies, and moving eastward over central/southwestern MT by 12Z. ...Great Lakes to central Plains... Widely scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms (in episodic clusters) are expected to cross the outlook area through the period, offering damaging to severe gusts, occasional large hail, and a marginal tornado threat. Within the broader 15%/"slight risk" area, one or more corridors of greater severe-wind threat may develop in concert with the best-organized portions of any cold-pool-driven, forward-propagational complex(es) that may develop. However, specific tracks of such axial maxima are still too uncertain at this time, due to dependence on iterative mesoscale factors. A residual arc of thunderstorms over Lake Huron and southeastern Lower MI has left an outflow boundary across southern Lower MI to south-central WI to near the southeast tip of MN, where it is being intercepted from the west by fresh outflow from another complex moving northeastward over western WI. The relatively stable airmass north of the first MCS' outflow boundary is shallow and subject to destabilization from both warm advection and (later this morning) diurnal heating, lending some potential for expansion or intensification of any part of the WI complex that still is present and extends into the increasingly favorable theta-e. Meanwhile, the outflow in/from the second ongoing complex may: 1. Produce isolated severe gusts through the shallow stable outflow layer over WI in the near term, 2. Modify favorably across parts of WI/IL/lower MI today (the latter assuming it reaches Lower MI to reinforce the first outflow pool) and 3. Focus additional development an uncertain distance farther south -- possibly including upscale growth into more complex(es), today into this evening. Overall, the environment along and south of the outflow boundaries should be favorable thermodynamically, with strong diabatic heating and rich moisture (70s F surface dewpoints being common). In satellite imagery, a plume of moisture with origins in the Southwest monsoon -- and still connected to MCS activity in western MX -- extends near an ELP-CAO-GLD-FSD axis. A residual EML to the east of this, and around the northwestern quadrant of the anticyclone, results in a plume of warmer 700-mb temperatures (per last night's 00Z charts and available soundings so far this morning), as well as somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates and slightly stronger capping atop the moist boundary layer. This contributes to the potential for areas of 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE along and south of the boundary(s) from parts of WI and Lower MI southwestward into northern MO. While such strong buoyancy will support upscale growth, longevity of clusters also is uncertain due to lack of a supportive LLJ. This far southeast of the main mid/upper-level shortwave trough, flow aloft and deep shear will be rather weak, so steering flow will be less of an influence on convective motion than internal cold pools and foregoing mesoscale boundary alignment. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front over the lower Missouri Valley into KS, shear and CAPE both will be weaker, but still with enough instability to support isolated to scattered afternoon development. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with pulse gusts and hail near severe limits possible. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of damaging thunderstorm winds and occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern temporarily will become less amplified over the CONUS, as an anticyclone now over the mid Mississippi Valley region weakens, and a nearly zonal northern stream takes shape across most of the northern tier of states. This will occur downstream from a strong synoptic-scale cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southwestern/near-coastal BC. The 500-mb low should move east-southeastward to the northern Rockies by 12Z tomorrow, with trough and cyclonic flow southward to the northern Great Basin. Downstream, a strong shortwave trough was apparent over the western Dakotas to the NE Panhandle, with embedded circulation center near DIK. This perturbation is forecast to deamplify gradually, but still remain a well-defined shortwave trough, as it moves eastward to the Lake Superior/northern Lake Michigan region by the end of the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low near the end of the Keweenaw Peninsula in Upper MI, with cold front extending diffusely southwestward through post-outflow air across northern WI, southern MN, central NE, to parts of western KS and eastern CO. The Great Lakes low should migrate eastward along the front to ME by 12Z tomorrow. The front is expected to reach Lake Huron, central Lower MI, southeastern WI, northern MO, central KS, and southwestern CO by 00Z, preceded by several outflow boundaries. By 12Z, the front should extend from the ME low across central/western NY, Lake Ontario, northern IN, and central MO, becoming quasistationary from there to central KS, and a warm front over eastern CO. The latter will occur in response to return flow setting up ahead of the Northwest cyclone aloft, with strengthening lee troughing between the front and a low over eastern MT. That low will be attached to another, stronger cold front emerging from the Rockies, and moving eastward over central/southwestern MT by 12Z. ...Great Lakes to central Plains... Widely scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms (in episodic clusters) are expected to cross the outlook area through the period, offering damaging to severe gusts, occasional large hail, and a marginal tornado threat. Within the broader 15%/"slight risk" area, one or more corridors of greater severe-wind threat may develop in concert with the best-organized portions of any cold-pool-driven, forward-propagational complex(es) that may develop. However, specific tracks of such axial maxima are still too uncertain at this time, due to dependence on iterative mesoscale factors. A residual arc of thunderstorms over Lake Huron and southeastern Lower MI has left an outflow boundary across southern Lower MI to south-central WI to near the southeast tip of MN, where it is being intercepted from the west by fresh outflow from another complex moving northeastward over western WI. The relatively stable airmass north of the first MCS' outflow boundary is shallow and subject to destabilization from both warm advection and (later this morning) diurnal heating, lending some potential for expansion or intensification of any part of the WI complex that still is present and extends into the increasingly favorable theta-e. Meanwhile, the outflow in/from the second ongoing complex may: 1. Produce isolated severe gusts through the shallow stable outflow layer over WI in the near term, 2. Modify favorably across parts of WI/IL/lower MI today (the latter assuming it reaches Lower MI to reinforce the first outflow pool) and 3. Focus additional development an uncertain distance farther south -- possibly including upscale growth into more complex(es), today into this evening. Overall, the environment along and south of the outflow boundaries should be favorable thermodynamically, with strong diabatic heating and rich moisture (70s F surface dewpoints being common). In satellite imagery, a plume of moisture with origins in the Southwest monsoon -- and still connected to MCS activity in western MX -- extends near an ELP-CAO-GLD-FSD axis. A residual EML to the east of this, and around the northwestern quadrant of the anticyclone, results in a plume of warmer 700-mb temperatures (per last night's 00Z charts and available soundings so far this morning), as well as somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates and slightly stronger capping atop the moist boundary layer. This contributes to the potential for areas of 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE along and south of the boundary(s) from parts of WI and Lower MI southwestward into northern MO. While such strong buoyancy will support upscale growth, longevity of clusters also is uncertain due to lack of a supportive LLJ. This far southeast of the main mid/upper-level shortwave trough, flow aloft and deep shear will be rather weak, so steering flow will be less of an influence on convective motion than internal cold pools and foregoing mesoscale boundary alignment. Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front over the lower Missouri Valley into KS, shear and CAPE both will be weaker, but still with enough instability to support isolated to scattered afternoon development. A few organized multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with pulse gusts and hail near severe limits possible. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 08/27/2024 Read more

MD 2012 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2012 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0557 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Areas affected...eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271057Z - 271230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A locally greater severe wind threat will persist across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin for a few hours this morning. DISCUSSION...A line of mostly sub-severe storms moved across Minnesota this morning. On the southern extent of this line, a more organized severe wind threat developed with measured wind gusts of 50 to 60 knots in portions of the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro area after several hours of minimal evidence of severe winds prior. The environment across western Wisconsin is somewhat cooler, upper 60s vs lower 70s temperatures. This may weaken this portion of the line as it moves east. However, it is also possible that this southern extent of the main line remains anchored to the instability gradient and access to more favorable theta-e and is able to produce additional isolated severe wind through the morning across western Wisconsin. A watch is not anticipated due to the confined nature of the threat at this time. ..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45159339 45459241 45499088 45119057 44749111 44639229 44579281 44649329 45159339 Read more

MD 2011 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2011 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Areas affected...southern and eastern MInnesota and northern Iowa. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 270846Z - 270945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues to decrease across portions of the Upper Midwest. No downstream watch is anticipated. DISCUSSION...A few strong to potentially severe storms moved through watch 654 over the past few hours and are now exiting eastern portions of the watch. Convective trends are down and as storms continue to outrun the better deep-layer shear, expect this trend to continue. Nonetheless, a very unstable airmass remains ahead of these storms (4000 J/kg MUCAPE across northern Iowa). Therefore, occasional stronger updrafts capable of isolated severe weather remain possible, albeit unlikely. Given the weakening trend, a downstream watch will not be issued east of watch 654. ..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 42369504 42769531 44719536 45249520 45319305 44889263 44049208 43159202 42999203 42489303 42369504 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the global models suggest that the general pattern evolution over the U.S. through the medium range will be characterized by a slowly progressive upper flow field, trending toward amplification of troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the West. Late in the period, as the pattern continues to progress, a Pacific trough is progged to approach and then move into the western states, while the western U.S. ridge shifts gradually toward the central states. Still farther upstream, the eastern U.S. trough will likewise continue shifting eastward, into/across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Through the first half of the period, as the upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region and adjacent Ontario and is then reinforced by a second feature digging southeastward out of Canada, a series of surface cold fronts will shift eastward/southeastward across the central and eastern CONUS. On Day 4/Friday, at least some severe threat will likely evolve over the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, ahead of the initial cold front. By Day 5/Saturday, convection -- and possibly limited severe risk -- may spread across the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley area. A continued, eastward shift should persist through Day6/Sunday, as the next front accelerates eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, with most substantial strong convective potential evolving from New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. Overall however, with low-level moisture begin suppressed gradually southward by Canadian frontal intrusions, and the surface baroclinic zone settling south of the stronger flow aloft, overall risk should remain limited, and gradually decreasing through the period. As such, no risk areas are being included in the medium-range outlook at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the global models suggest that the general pattern evolution over the U.S. through the medium range will be characterized by a slowly progressive upper flow field, trending toward amplification of troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the West. Late in the period, as the pattern continues to progress, a Pacific trough is progged to approach and then move into the western states, while the western U.S. ridge shifts gradually toward the central states. Still farther upstream, the eastern U.S. trough will likewise continue shifting eastward, into/across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Through the first half of the period, as the upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region and adjacent Ontario and is then reinforced by a second feature digging southeastward out of Canada, a series of surface cold fronts will shift eastward/southeastward across the central and eastern CONUS. On Day 4/Friday, at least some severe threat will likely evolve over the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, ahead of the initial cold front. By Day 5/Saturday, convection -- and possibly limited severe risk -- may spread across the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley area. A continued, eastward shift should persist through Day6/Sunday, as the next front accelerates eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, with most substantial strong convective potential evolving from New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. Overall however, with low-level moisture begin suppressed gradually southward by Canadian frontal intrusions, and the surface baroclinic zone settling south of the stronger flow aloft, overall risk should remain limited, and gradually decreasing through the period. As such, no risk areas are being included in the medium-range outlook at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the global models suggest that the general pattern evolution over the U.S. through the medium range will be characterized by a slowly progressive upper flow field, trending toward amplification of troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the West. Late in the period, as the pattern continues to progress, a Pacific trough is progged to approach and then move into the western states, while the western U.S. ridge shifts gradually toward the central states. Still farther upstream, the eastern U.S. trough will likewise continue shifting eastward, into/across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Through the first half of the period, as the upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region and adjacent Ontario and is then reinforced by a second feature digging southeastward out of Canada, a series of surface cold fronts will shift eastward/southeastward across the central and eastern CONUS. On Day 4/Friday, at least some severe threat will likely evolve over the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, ahead of the initial cold front. By Day 5/Saturday, convection -- and possibly limited severe risk -- may spread across the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley area. A continued, eastward shift should persist through Day6/Sunday, as the next front accelerates eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, with most substantial strong convective potential evolving from New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. Overall however, with low-level moisture begin suppressed gradually southward by Canadian frontal intrusions, and the surface baroclinic zone settling south of the stronger flow aloft, overall risk should remain limited, and gradually decreasing through the period. As such, no risk areas are being included in the medium-range outlook at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the global models suggest that the general pattern evolution over the U.S. through the medium range will be characterized by a slowly progressive upper flow field, trending toward amplification of troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the West. Late in the period, as the pattern continues to progress, a Pacific trough is progged to approach and then move into the western states, while the western U.S. ridge shifts gradually toward the central states. Still farther upstream, the eastern U.S. trough will likewise continue shifting eastward, into/across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Through the first half of the period, as the upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region and adjacent Ontario and is then reinforced by a second feature digging southeastward out of Canada, a series of surface cold fronts will shift eastward/southeastward across the central and eastern CONUS. On Day 4/Friday, at least some severe threat will likely evolve over the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, ahead of the initial cold front. By Day 5/Saturday, convection -- and possibly limited severe risk -- may spread across the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley area. A continued, eastward shift should persist through Day6/Sunday, as the next front accelerates eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, with most substantial strong convective potential evolving from New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. Overall however, with low-level moisture begin suppressed gradually southward by Canadian frontal intrusions, and the surface baroclinic zone settling south of the stronger flow aloft, overall risk should remain limited, and gradually decreasing through the period. As such, no risk areas are being included in the medium-range outlook at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the global models suggest that the general pattern evolution over the U.S. through the medium range will be characterized by a slowly progressive upper flow field, trending toward amplification of troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the West. Late in the period, as the pattern continues to progress, a Pacific trough is progged to approach and then move into the western states, while the western U.S. ridge shifts gradually toward the central states. Still farther upstream, the eastern U.S. trough will likewise continue shifting eastward, into/across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Through the first half of the period, as the upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region and adjacent Ontario and is then reinforced by a second feature digging southeastward out of Canada, a series of surface cold fronts will shift eastward/southeastward across the central and eastern CONUS. On Day 4/Friday, at least some severe threat will likely evolve over the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, ahead of the initial cold front. By Day 5/Saturday, convection -- and possibly limited severe risk -- may spread across the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley area. A continued, eastward shift should persist through Day6/Sunday, as the next front accelerates eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, with most substantial strong convective potential evolving from New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. Overall however, with low-level moisture begin suppressed gradually southward by Canadian frontal intrusions, and the surface baroclinic zone settling south of the stronger flow aloft, overall risk should remain limited, and gradually decreasing through the period. As such, no risk areas are being included in the medium-range outlook at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the global models suggest that the general pattern evolution over the U.S. through the medium range will be characterized by a slowly progressive upper flow field, trending toward amplification of troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the West. Late in the period, as the pattern continues to progress, a Pacific trough is progged to approach and then move into the western states, while the western U.S. ridge shifts gradually toward the central states. Still farther upstream, the eastern U.S. trough will likewise continue shifting eastward, into/across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Through the first half of the period, as the upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region and adjacent Ontario and is then reinforced by a second feature digging southeastward out of Canada, a series of surface cold fronts will shift eastward/southeastward across the central and eastern CONUS. On Day 4/Friday, at least some severe threat will likely evolve over the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, ahead of the initial cold front. By Day 5/Saturday, convection -- and possibly limited severe risk -- may spread across the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley area. A continued, eastward shift should persist through Day6/Sunday, as the next front accelerates eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, with most substantial strong convective potential evolving from New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. Overall however, with low-level moisture begin suppressed gradually southward by Canadian frontal intrusions, and the surface baroclinic zone settling south of the stronger flow aloft, overall risk should remain limited, and gradually decreasing through the period. As such, no risk areas are being included in the medium-range outlook at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the global models suggest that the general pattern evolution over the U.S. through the medium range will be characterized by a slowly progressive upper flow field, trending toward amplification of troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the West. Late in the period, as the pattern continues to progress, a Pacific trough is progged to approach and then move into the western states, while the western U.S. ridge shifts gradually toward the central states. Still farther upstream, the eastern U.S. trough will likewise continue shifting eastward, into/across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Through the first half of the period, as the upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region and adjacent Ontario and is then reinforced by a second feature digging southeastward out of Canada, a series of surface cold fronts will shift eastward/southeastward across the central and eastern CONUS. On Day 4/Friday, at least some severe threat will likely evolve over the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, ahead of the initial cold front. By Day 5/Saturday, convection -- and possibly limited severe risk -- may spread across the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley area. A continued, eastward shift should persist through Day6/Sunday, as the next front accelerates eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, with most substantial strong convective potential evolving from New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. Overall however, with low-level moisture begin suppressed gradually southward by Canadian frontal intrusions, and the surface baroclinic zone settling south of the stronger flow aloft, overall risk should remain limited, and gradually decreasing through the period. As such, no risk areas are being included in the medium-range outlook at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the global models suggest that the general pattern evolution over the U.S. through the medium range will be characterized by a slowly progressive upper flow field, trending toward amplification of troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the West. Late in the period, as the pattern continues to progress, a Pacific trough is progged to approach and then move into the western states, while the western U.S. ridge shifts gradually toward the central states. Still farther upstream, the eastern U.S. trough will likewise continue shifting eastward, into/across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Through the first half of the period, as the upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region and adjacent Ontario and is then reinforced by a second feature digging southeastward out of Canada, a series of surface cold fronts will shift eastward/southeastward across the central and eastern CONUS. On Day 4/Friday, at least some severe threat will likely evolve over the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, ahead of the initial cold front. By Day 5/Saturday, convection -- and possibly limited severe risk -- may spread across the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley area. A continued, eastward shift should persist through Day6/Sunday, as the next front accelerates eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, with most substantial strong convective potential evolving from New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. Overall however, with low-level moisture begin suppressed gradually southward by Canadian frontal intrusions, and the surface baroclinic zone settling south of the stronger flow aloft, overall risk should remain limited, and gradually decreasing through the period. As such, no risk areas are being included in the medium-range outlook at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the global models suggest that the general pattern evolution over the U.S. through the medium range will be characterized by a slowly progressive upper flow field, trending toward amplification of troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the West. Late in the period, as the pattern continues to progress, a Pacific trough is progged to approach and then move into the western states, while the western U.S. ridge shifts gradually toward the central states. Still farther upstream, the eastern U.S. trough will likewise continue shifting eastward, into/across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Through the first half of the period, as the upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region and adjacent Ontario and is then reinforced by a second feature digging southeastward out of Canada, a series of surface cold fronts will shift eastward/southeastward across the central and eastern CONUS. On Day 4/Friday, at least some severe threat will likely evolve over the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, ahead of the initial cold front. By Day 5/Saturday, convection -- and possibly limited severe risk -- may spread across the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley area. A continued, eastward shift should persist through Day6/Sunday, as the next front accelerates eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, with most substantial strong convective potential evolving from New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. Overall however, with low-level moisture begin suppressed gradually southward by Canadian frontal intrusions, and the surface baroclinic zone settling south of the stronger flow aloft, overall risk should remain limited, and gradually decreasing through the period. As such, no risk areas are being included in the medium-range outlook at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the global models suggest that the general pattern evolution over the U.S. through the medium range will be characterized by a slowly progressive upper flow field, trending toward amplification of troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the West. Late in the period, as the pattern continues to progress, a Pacific trough is progged to approach and then move into the western states, while the western U.S. ridge shifts gradually toward the central states. Still farther upstream, the eastern U.S. trough will likewise continue shifting eastward, into/across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Through the first half of the period, as the upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region and adjacent Ontario and is then reinforced by a second feature digging southeastward out of Canada, a series of surface cold fronts will shift eastward/southeastward across the central and eastern CONUS. On Day 4/Friday, at least some severe threat will likely evolve over the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, ahead of the initial cold front. By Day 5/Saturday, convection -- and possibly limited severe risk -- may spread across the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley area. A continued, eastward shift should persist through Day6/Sunday, as the next front accelerates eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, with most substantial strong convective potential evolving from New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. Overall however, with low-level moisture begin suppressed gradually southward by Canadian frontal intrusions, and the surface baroclinic zone settling south of the stronger flow aloft, overall risk should remain limited, and gradually decreasing through the period. As such, no risk areas are being included in the medium-range outlook at this time. Read more

WW 0654 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N OFK TO 10 E YKN TO 25 W FSD TO 35 WSW BKX AND 10 NNE SUX TO 30 SE FSD TO 20 E BKX. ..BENTLEY..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-041-059-119-141-143-149-167-270840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-270840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0654 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N OFK TO 10 E YKN TO 25 W FSD TO 35 WSW BKX AND 10 NNE SUX TO 30 SE FSD TO 20 E BKX. ..BENTLEY..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-041-059-119-141-143-149-167-270840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-270840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more