Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CNM TO 35 W HOB TO 50 E ROW TO 50 NE ROW TO 55 WSW CVS TO 60 SSE LVS TO 20 SSE SAF. ..JEWELL..09/21/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-011-015-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-220140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE HARDING LEA MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-117-129-153-165-179-189-205-219-233- 279-303-341-359-369-375-381-393-437-445-501-220140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN DEAF SMITH DONLEY FLOYD GAINES GRAY HALE HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON LAMB LUBBOCK MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 21 23:00:09 UTC 2024.

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW GDP TO 20 WSW CNM TO 25 NW CNM TO 20 S ROW TO 10 NW ROW TO 50 NNW ROW TO 35 ENE 4CR TO 55 NNE 4CR TO 30 SSE SAF. ..JEWELL..09/21/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-009-011-015-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-220040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES CURRY DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE HARDING LEA MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-117-129-153-165-179-189-205-219-233- 279-303-341-359-369-375-381-393-437-445-501-220040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN DEAF SMITH DONLEY FLOYD GAINES GRAY HALE HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON LAMB LUBBOCK MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2095 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN VIRGINIA...AND THE WESTERN MARYLAND PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2095 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Areas affected...western New York...western Pennsylvania...southeastern Ohio...much of West Virginia...western Virginia...and the western Maryland Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211837Z - 212100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms briefly reaching marginal severe levels can be expected through this afternoon. Marginal hail and tree damage can be expected locally. However, the very isolated/marginal nature of the risk currently expected should preclude the need for WW consideration. DISCUSSION...A weak cool front will continue moving southeastward across the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley area and into the central Appalachians today, as a vort max near Lake Huron shifts across the Lower Great Lakes toward the Chesapeake Bay area this afternoon and tonight. Ahead of the front, a modestly moist boundary layer (low 60s dewpoints) combined with warm-sector heating is resulting in around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across much of the area, though into the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range over the middle Ohio Valley portion of the region. This destabilization is fueling a gradual increase in convective coverage and intensity near and ahead of the front -- from southeastern Ohio to southwestern New York. Though low-level flow remains weak, moderate mid-level northwesterlies are contributing to an environment amply sheared to support organized updrafts. As such, locally strong/briefly vigorous updrafts will likely be associated with marginal severe potential into early evening -- with risk spreading gradually eastward/southeastward with time. ..Goss/Guyer.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39598204 39888105 40368027 40797954 41487892 42507897 42717843 42207672 41327693 38777771 37647890 37308026 38618177 39598204 Read more