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11 months 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Large spread among guidance is apparent during the Day 4-8 period.
Most guidance develops an upper cyclone over the central or eastern
U.S. for much of the period, while an upper ridge persists over the
western states. However, the GFS suite of guidance is much more
progressive with the central/eastern upper trough/low compared to
the ECMWF, and eventually develops a broad upper ridge over much of
the CONUS late in the period. Given vastly different forecast
solutions, confidence in any severe potential developing during the
forecast period is low.
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.
...TN/OH Valley into the Central Appalachians...
An upper trough will shift east across the central U.S. on Tuesday,
however there is uncertainty in the exact evolution/timing of this
feature among various forecast guidance. Nevertheless, modestly
enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough will
overspread portions of the OH/TN Valleys and central Appalachian
vicinity. A moist airmass will be in place, characterized by 60s F
dewpoints. Ongoing precipitation is possible Tuesday morning,
associated with a lead shortwave impulse/convectively enhanced
vorticity max over the OH Valley. As a result, the degree of daytime
destabilization across the warm sector is uncertain. Some severe
thunderstorm potential may develop from KY/TN toward the central
Appalachians vicinity given modestly enhanced mid/upper level flow
overspreading the moist warm sector. However, given large
uncertainty in the evolution/timing of the central U.S. upper trough
and concerns over a recovering/destabilizing warm sector, will hold
off on introducing severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 09/22/2024
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.
...TN/OH Valley into the Central Appalachians...
An upper trough will shift east across the central U.S. on Tuesday,
however there is uncertainty in the exact evolution/timing of this
feature among various forecast guidance. Nevertheless, modestly
enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough will
overspread portions of the OH/TN Valleys and central Appalachian
vicinity. A moist airmass will be in place, characterized by 60s F
dewpoints. Ongoing precipitation is possible Tuesday morning,
associated with a lead shortwave impulse/convectively enhanced
vorticity max over the OH Valley. As a result, the degree of daytime
destabilization across the warm sector is uncertain. Some severe
thunderstorm potential may develop from KY/TN toward the central
Appalachians vicinity given modestly enhanced mid/upper level flow
overspreading the moist warm sector. However, given large
uncertainty in the evolution/timing of the central U.S. upper trough
and concerns over a recovering/destabilizing warm sector, will hold
off on introducing severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 09/22/2024
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.
...TN/OH Valley into the Central Appalachians...
An upper trough will shift east across the central U.S. on Tuesday,
however there is uncertainty in the exact evolution/timing of this
feature among various forecast guidance. Nevertheless, modestly
enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough will
overspread portions of the OH/TN Valleys and central Appalachian
vicinity. A moist airmass will be in place, characterized by 60s F
dewpoints. Ongoing precipitation is possible Tuesday morning,
associated with a lead shortwave impulse/convectively enhanced
vorticity max over the OH Valley. As a result, the degree of daytime
destabilization across the warm sector is uncertain. Some severe
thunderstorm potential may develop from KY/TN toward the central
Appalachians vicinity given modestly enhanced mid/upper level flow
overspreading the moist warm sector. However, given large
uncertainty in the evolution/timing of the central U.S. upper trough
and concerns over a recovering/destabilizing warm sector, will hold
off on introducing severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 09/22/2024
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across
the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level
troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with
warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to
continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire
concerns low.
..Thornton.. 09/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across
the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level
troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with
warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to
continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire
concerns low.
..Thornton.. 09/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across
the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level
troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with
warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to
continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire
concerns low.
..Thornton.. 09/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A
cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with
potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue
across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across
the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures
expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather
concerns low.
..Thornton.. 09/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A
cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with
potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue
across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across
the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures
expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather
concerns low.
..Thornton.. 09/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A
cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with
potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue
across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across
the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures
expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather
concerns low.
..Thornton.. 09/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks
into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday.
...Ozarks to KY/TN...
An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the
southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on
Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb)
associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower
OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop
south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the
MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface
boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River.
While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector,
bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in
the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by
widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation
Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime
heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive
nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain
somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless,
where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across
the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given
moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in
the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and
sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday
afternoon into the evening.
..Leitman.. 09/22/2024
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks
into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday.
...Ozarks to KY/TN...
An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the
southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on
Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb)
associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower
OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop
south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the
MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface
boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River.
While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector,
bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in
the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by
widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation
Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime
heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive
nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain
somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless,
where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across
the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given
moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in
the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and
sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday
afternoon into the evening.
..Leitman.. 09/22/2024
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks
into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday.
...Ozarks to KY/TN...
An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the
southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on
Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb)
associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower
OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop
south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the
MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface
boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River.
While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector,
bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in
the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by
widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation
Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime
heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive
nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain
somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless,
where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across
the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given
moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in
the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and
sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday
afternoon into the evening.
..Leitman.. 09/22/2024
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks
into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday.
...Ozarks to KY/TN...
An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the
southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on
Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb)
associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower
OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop
south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the
MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface
boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River.
While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector,
bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in
the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by
widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation
Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime
heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive
nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain
somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless,
where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across
the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given
moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in
the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and
sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday
afternoon into the evening.
..Leitman.. 09/22/2024
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to
western Kentucky.
...West Texas to Western Kentucky...
Notable upper low is currently located over the Four Corners region,
shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will
gradually deamplify as it shifts east into the southern High Plains
by the end of the period. As the trough shifts east, upper
anticyclone will be suppressed toward the northwestern Gulf Basin
and modest southwesterly 500mb flow will overspread west TX into the
lower OH Valley. This evolution warrants a surface ridge building
south across the High Plains and a sharp cold front should surge
across the TX South Plains fairly early in the period, ultimately
arcing from the Edwards Plateau-eastern OK-southern MO by 23/00z.
This boundary should serve as the primary focus for potential robust
convection through the period.
Early this morning, scattered supercells, and more substantial
clusters, are noted across the TX Panhandle into southern KS. This
activity will gradually shift east and likely be ongoing in some
fashion early in the period. Remnants of these storms, and left over
convective debris, may inhibit surface heating near the front.
Although, latest NAM suggests modest heating by 18z immediately
ahead of the front from southwest TX-eastern OK-southwest MO, which
should aid destabilization. Forecast soundings along this corridor
exhibit steep 0-2km lapse rates, but mid-level values only around
6-6.5 C/km. While effective bulk shear will support organization,
thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive, but likely
adequate for robust updrafts capable of generating gusty winds and
perhaps some hail, especially across portions of west TX.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/22/2024
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to
western Kentucky.
...West Texas to Western Kentucky...
Notable upper low is currently located over the Four Corners region,
shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will
gradually deamplify as it shifts east into the southern High Plains
by the end of the period. As the trough shifts east, upper
anticyclone will be suppressed toward the northwestern Gulf Basin
and modest southwesterly 500mb flow will overspread west TX into the
lower OH Valley. This evolution warrants a surface ridge building
south across the High Plains and a sharp cold front should surge
across the TX South Plains fairly early in the period, ultimately
arcing from the Edwards Plateau-eastern OK-southern MO by 23/00z.
This boundary should serve as the primary focus for potential robust
convection through the period.
Early this morning, scattered supercells, and more substantial
clusters, are noted across the TX Panhandle into southern KS. This
activity will gradually shift east and likely be ongoing in some
fashion early in the period. Remnants of these storms, and left over
convective debris, may inhibit surface heating near the front.
Although, latest NAM suggests modest heating by 18z immediately
ahead of the front from southwest TX-eastern OK-southwest MO, which
should aid destabilization. Forecast soundings along this corridor
exhibit steep 0-2km lapse rates, but mid-level values only around
6-6.5 C/km. While effective bulk shear will support organization,
thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive, but likely
adequate for robust updrafts capable of generating gusty winds and
perhaps some hail, especially across portions of west TX.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/22/2024
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to
western Kentucky.
...West Texas to Western Kentucky...
Notable upper low is currently located over the Four Corners region,
shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will
gradually deamplify as it shifts east into the southern High Plains
by the end of the period. As the trough shifts east, upper
anticyclone will be suppressed toward the northwestern Gulf Basin
and modest southwesterly 500mb flow will overspread west TX into the
lower OH Valley. This evolution warrants a surface ridge building
south across the High Plains and a sharp cold front should surge
across the TX South Plains fairly early in the period, ultimately
arcing from the Edwards Plateau-eastern OK-southern MO by 23/00z.
This boundary should serve as the primary focus for potential robust
convection through the period.
Early this morning, scattered supercells, and more substantial
clusters, are noted across the TX Panhandle into southern KS. This
activity will gradually shift east and likely be ongoing in some
fashion early in the period. Remnants of these storms, and left over
convective debris, may inhibit surface heating near the front.
Although, latest NAM suggests modest heating by 18z immediately
ahead of the front from southwest TX-eastern OK-southwest MO, which
should aid destabilization. Forecast soundings along this corridor
exhibit steep 0-2km lapse rates, but mid-level values only around
6-6.5 C/km. While effective bulk shear will support organization,
thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive, but likely
adequate for robust updrafts capable of generating gusty winds and
perhaps some hail, especially across portions of west TX.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/22/2024
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to
western Kentucky.
...West Texas to Western Kentucky...
Notable upper low is currently located over the Four Corners region,
shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will
gradually deamplify as it shifts east into the southern High Plains
by the end of the period. As the trough shifts east, upper
anticyclone will be suppressed toward the northwestern Gulf Basin
and modest southwesterly 500mb flow will overspread west TX into the
lower OH Valley. This evolution warrants a surface ridge building
south across the High Plains and a sharp cold front should surge
across the TX South Plains fairly early in the period, ultimately
arcing from the Edwards Plateau-eastern OK-southern MO by 23/00z.
This boundary should serve as the primary focus for potential robust
convection through the period.
Early this morning, scattered supercells, and more substantial
clusters, are noted across the TX Panhandle into southern KS. This
activity will gradually shift east and likely be ongoing in some
fashion early in the period. Remnants of these storms, and left over
convective debris, may inhibit surface heating near the front.
Although, latest NAM suggests modest heating by 18z immediately
ahead of the front from southwest TX-eastern OK-southwest MO, which
should aid destabilization. Forecast soundings along this corridor
exhibit steep 0-2km lapse rates, but mid-level values only around
6-6.5 C/km. While effective bulk shear will support organization,
thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive, but likely
adequate for robust updrafts capable of generating gusty winds and
perhaps some hail, especially across portions of west TX.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/22/2024
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to
western Kentucky.
...West Texas to Western Kentucky...
Notable upper low is currently located over the Four Corners region,
shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will
gradually deamplify as it shifts east into the southern High Plains
by the end of the period. As the trough shifts east, upper
anticyclone will be suppressed toward the northwestern Gulf Basin
and modest southwesterly 500mb flow will overspread west TX into the
lower OH Valley. This evolution warrants a surface ridge building
south across the High Plains and a sharp cold front should surge
across the TX South Plains fairly early in the period, ultimately
arcing from the Edwards Plateau-eastern OK-southern MO by 23/00z.
This boundary should serve as the primary focus for potential robust
convection through the period.
Early this morning, scattered supercells, and more substantial
clusters, are noted across the TX Panhandle into southern KS. This
activity will gradually shift east and likely be ongoing in some
fashion early in the period. Remnants of these storms, and left over
convective debris, may inhibit surface heating near the front.
Although, latest NAM suggests modest heating by 18z immediately
ahead of the front from southwest TX-eastern OK-southwest MO, which
should aid destabilization. Forecast soundings along this corridor
exhibit steep 0-2km lapse rates, but mid-level values only around
6-6.5 C/km. While effective bulk shear will support organization,
thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive, but likely
adequate for robust updrafts capable of generating gusty winds and
perhaps some hail, especially across portions of west TX.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/22/2024
Read more
11 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 680
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE HOB TO
20 SSE CAO.
..JEWELL..09/22/24
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 680
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-117-129-153-165-179-189-205-219-233-
279-303-341-359-369-375-381-393-437-445-501-220340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN
DEAF SMITH DONLEY FLOYD
GAINES GRAY HALE
HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
LAMB LUBBOCK MOORE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SWISHER
TERRY YOAKUM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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