Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes. Fire weather concerns remain low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes. Fire weather concerns remain low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes. Fire weather concerns remain low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes. Fire weather concerns remain low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes. Fire weather concerns remain low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes. Fire weather concerns remain low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas into the Ozarks and lower OH Valley... An upper low over CO will continue to slowly weaken as it migrates eastward into the central Great Plains through early Monday morning. A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will reside in between the closed circulation and a flattening anticyclone centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. In the low levels, a south and southeastward movement of a surface front is forecast through today as it moves through the Corn Belt and areas farther southwest in the southern Great Plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorm activity this morning extends along and behind the front from OK northeastward into the lower MO Valley and western Great Lakes. Considerable cloud cover will contribute to limited diurnal heating, especially from near the Red River northeastward into the Ozark Plateau. Morning surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower 70s deg F dewpoints over the Edwards Plateau (reference the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob showing a capped but deep moist layer) with 65-70 F farther northeast from OK through the Ozarks. Forecast soundings later this afternoon indicate 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE---supporting a risk for a few stronger thunderstorms near/behind the boundary/wind shift. Strong to locally damaging gusts (50-60 mph) and perhaps hail up to around 1 inch in diameter are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas into the Ozarks and lower OH Valley... An upper low over CO will continue to slowly weaken as it migrates eastward into the central Great Plains through early Monday morning. A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will reside in between the closed circulation and a flattening anticyclone centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. In the low levels, a south and southeastward movement of a surface front is forecast through today as it moves through the Corn Belt and areas farther southwest in the southern Great Plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorm activity this morning extends along and behind the front from OK northeastward into the lower MO Valley and western Great Lakes. Considerable cloud cover will contribute to limited diurnal heating, especially from near the Red River northeastward into the Ozark Plateau. Morning surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower 70s deg F dewpoints over the Edwards Plateau (reference the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob showing a capped but deep moist layer) with 65-70 F farther northeast from OK through the Ozarks. Forecast soundings later this afternoon indicate 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE---supporting a risk for a few stronger thunderstorms near/behind the boundary/wind shift. Strong to locally damaging gusts (50-60 mph) and perhaps hail up to around 1 inch in diameter are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas into the Ozarks and lower OH Valley... An upper low over CO will continue to slowly weaken as it migrates eastward into the central Great Plains through early Monday morning. A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will reside in between the closed circulation and a flattening anticyclone centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. In the low levels, a south and southeastward movement of a surface front is forecast through today as it moves through the Corn Belt and areas farther southwest in the southern Great Plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorm activity this morning extends along and behind the front from OK northeastward into the lower MO Valley and western Great Lakes. Considerable cloud cover will contribute to limited diurnal heating, especially from near the Red River northeastward into the Ozark Plateau. Morning surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower 70s deg F dewpoints over the Edwards Plateau (reference the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob showing a capped but deep moist layer) with 65-70 F farther northeast from OK through the Ozarks. Forecast soundings later this afternoon indicate 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE---supporting a risk for a few stronger thunderstorms near/behind the boundary/wind shift. Strong to locally damaging gusts (50-60 mph) and perhaps hail up to around 1 inch in diameter are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas into the Ozarks and lower OH Valley... An upper low over CO will continue to slowly weaken as it migrates eastward into the central Great Plains through early Monday morning. A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will reside in between the closed circulation and a flattening anticyclone centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. In the low levels, a south and southeastward movement of a surface front is forecast through today as it moves through the Corn Belt and areas farther southwest in the southern Great Plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorm activity this morning extends along and behind the front from OK northeastward into the lower MO Valley and western Great Lakes. Considerable cloud cover will contribute to limited diurnal heating, especially from near the Red River northeastward into the Ozark Plateau. Morning surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower 70s deg F dewpoints over the Edwards Plateau (reference the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob showing a capped but deep moist layer) with 65-70 F farther northeast from OK through the Ozarks. Forecast soundings later this afternoon indicate 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE---supporting a risk for a few stronger thunderstorms near/behind the boundary/wind shift. Strong to locally damaging gusts (50-60 mph) and perhaps hail up to around 1 inch in diameter are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/22/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large spread among guidance is apparent during the Day 4-8 period. Most guidance develops an upper cyclone over the central or eastern U.S. for much of the period, while an upper ridge persists over the western states. However, the GFS suite of guidance is much more progressive with the central/eastern upper trough/low compared to the ECMWF, and eventually develops a broad upper ridge over much of the CONUS late in the period. Given vastly different forecast solutions, confidence in any severe potential developing during the forecast period is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large spread among guidance is apparent during the Day 4-8 period. Most guidance develops an upper cyclone over the central or eastern U.S. for much of the period, while an upper ridge persists over the western states. However, the GFS suite of guidance is much more progressive with the central/eastern upper trough/low compared to the ECMWF, and eventually develops a broad upper ridge over much of the CONUS late in the period. Given vastly different forecast solutions, confidence in any severe potential developing during the forecast period is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large spread among guidance is apparent during the Day 4-8 period. Most guidance develops an upper cyclone over the central or eastern U.S. for much of the period, while an upper ridge persists over the western states. However, the GFS suite of guidance is much more progressive with the central/eastern upper trough/low compared to the ECMWF, and eventually develops a broad upper ridge over much of the CONUS late in the period. Given vastly different forecast solutions, confidence in any severe potential developing during the forecast period is low. Read more