Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valley Region... Northern-stream short-wave trough is forecast to dig into the northern Plains later this afternoon, which will encourage the positive-tilt trough over the central Plains to eject east, and deamplify over the MS Valley late in the period. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front, mostly likely over northern AR early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests this weak feature will track northeast into southern IN by 24/12z. While the surface front is not particularly sharp, this boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection through the period. Pre frontal boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization as mid-level lapse rates should remain weak through the period. Latest NAM suggests 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across eastern AR into western KY by early afternoon, which will result in MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. Forecast soundings favor multi cell updrafts with some organizational potential, as effective shear will be on the order of 30kt along this pre frontal corridor. At this time it appears most updrafts will struggle to generate more than marginally strong gusts, or perhaps some hail approaching 1 inch. Most robust updrafts should develop by late morning and continue into the early-evening hours before nocturnal cooling lessens buoyancy. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valley Region... Northern-stream short-wave trough is forecast to dig into the northern Plains later this afternoon, which will encourage the positive-tilt trough over the central Plains to eject east, and deamplify over the MS Valley late in the period. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front, mostly likely over northern AR early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests this weak feature will track northeast into southern IN by 24/12z. While the surface front is not particularly sharp, this boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection through the period. Pre frontal boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization as mid-level lapse rates should remain weak through the period. Latest NAM suggests 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across eastern AR into western KY by early afternoon, which will result in MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. Forecast soundings favor multi cell updrafts with some organizational potential, as effective shear will be on the order of 30kt along this pre frontal corridor. At this time it appears most updrafts will struggle to generate more than marginally strong gusts, or perhaps some hail approaching 1 inch. Most robust updrafts should develop by late morning and continue into the early-evening hours before nocturnal cooling lessens buoyancy. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to marginally severe, thunderstorms remain possible this evening across southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Upper low is gradually deamplifying as it becomes positive tilted over the central/southern High Plains region. This evolution has contributed to a surging cold front that now extends from the Ozarks-southeast OK-Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. The majority of convection remains along the cool side of the boundary, but a few storms are noted near/south of the wind shift. Surface temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90F across southwest TX, but mid-level lapse rates are modest at best, and this is likely hampering updraft strength within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. Additionally, very few severe wind gusts have been reported with this activity, and hail will likely struggle to achieve levels above 1 inch, except near the International border near Sanderson. Overall, severe threat appears fairly low this evening, but a few gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible. ..Darrow.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to marginally severe, thunderstorms remain possible this evening across southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Upper low is gradually deamplifying as it becomes positive tilted over the central/southern High Plains region. This evolution has contributed to a surging cold front that now extends from the Ozarks-southeast OK-Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. The majority of convection remains along the cool side of the boundary, but a few storms are noted near/south of the wind shift. Surface temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90F across southwest TX, but mid-level lapse rates are modest at best, and this is likely hampering updraft strength within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. Additionally, very few severe wind gusts have been reported with this activity, and hail will likely struggle to achieve levels above 1 inch, except near the International border near Sanderson. Overall, severe threat appears fairly low this evening, but a few gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible. ..Darrow.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to marginally severe, thunderstorms remain possible this evening across southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Upper low is gradually deamplifying as it becomes positive tilted over the central/southern High Plains region. This evolution has contributed to a surging cold front that now extends from the Ozarks-southeast OK-Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. The majority of convection remains along the cool side of the boundary, but a few storms are noted near/south of the wind shift. Surface temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90F across southwest TX, but mid-level lapse rates are modest at best, and this is likely hampering updraft strength within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. Additionally, very few severe wind gusts have been reported with this activity, and hail will likely struggle to achieve levels above 1 inch, except near the International border near Sanderson. Overall, severe threat appears fairly low this evening, but a few gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible. ..Darrow.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to marginally severe, thunderstorms remain possible this evening across southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Upper low is gradually deamplifying as it becomes positive tilted over the central/southern High Plains region. This evolution has contributed to a surging cold front that now extends from the Ozarks-southeast OK-Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. The majority of convection remains along the cool side of the boundary, but a few storms are noted near/south of the wind shift. Surface temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90F across southwest TX, but mid-level lapse rates are modest at best, and this is likely hampering updraft strength within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. Additionally, very few severe wind gusts have been reported with this activity, and hail will likely struggle to achieve levels above 1 inch, except near the International border near Sanderson. Overall, severe threat appears fairly low this evening, but a few gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible. ..Darrow.. 09/23/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 22 22:32:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 22 22:32:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Forecast guidance has come to a consensus for a cut off low which will dominate the weather for much of the central and eastern CONUS by the middle of this week. In addition, there is some potential for tropical development which may eventually merge with this upper low later this week. As this pattern evolves across the eastern CONUS, ridging will build across the western CONUS. Some warmer conditions are anticipated, however, winds are expected to be light across areas with dry fuels. The only period with even elevated fire-weather conditions forecast is on Day4/Wednesday when some dry and breezy conditions may develop in the lee of the northern Sierra/southern Cascades as a mid-level trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. However, fuels are not critically dry in this region. Therefore, only elevated conditions forecast at this time and unreceptive fuels preclude the need for any critical probabilities given the potential for fire-weather concerns is too low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Forecast guidance has come to a consensus for a cut off low which will dominate the weather for much of the central and eastern CONUS by the middle of this week. In addition, there is some potential for tropical development which may eventually merge with this upper low later this week. As this pattern evolves across the eastern CONUS, ridging will build across the western CONUS. Some warmer conditions are anticipated, however, winds are expected to be light across areas with dry fuels. The only period with even elevated fire-weather conditions forecast is on Day4/Wednesday when some dry and breezy conditions may develop in the lee of the northern Sierra/southern Cascades as a mid-level trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. However, fuels are not critically dry in this region. Therefore, only elevated conditions forecast at this time and unreceptive fuels preclude the need for any critical probabilities given the potential for fire-weather concerns is too low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Forecast guidance has come to a consensus for a cut off low which will dominate the weather for much of the central and eastern CONUS by the middle of this week. In addition, there is some potential for tropical development which may eventually merge with this upper low later this week. As this pattern evolves across the eastern CONUS, ridging will build across the western CONUS. Some warmer conditions are anticipated, however, winds are expected to be light across areas with dry fuels. The only period with even elevated fire-weather conditions forecast is on Day4/Wednesday when some dry and breezy conditions may develop in the lee of the northern Sierra/southern Cascades as a mid-level trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. However, fuels are not critically dry in this region. Therefore, only elevated conditions forecast at this time and unreceptive fuels preclude the need for any critical probabilities given the potential for fire-weather concerns is too low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Forecast guidance has come to a consensus for a cut off low which will dominate the weather for much of the central and eastern CONUS by the middle of this week. In addition, there is some potential for tropical development which may eventually merge with this upper low later this week. As this pattern evolves across the eastern CONUS, ridging will build across the western CONUS. Some warmer conditions are anticipated, however, winds are expected to be light across areas with dry fuels. The only period with even elevated fire-weather conditions forecast is on Day4/Wednesday when some dry and breezy conditions may develop in the lee of the northern Sierra/southern Cascades as a mid-level trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. However, fuels are not critically dry in this region. Therefore, only elevated conditions forecast at this time and unreceptive fuels preclude the need for any critical probabilities given the potential for fire-weather concerns is too low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Forecast guidance has come to a consensus for a cut off low which will dominate the weather for much of the central and eastern CONUS by the middle of this week. In addition, there is some potential for tropical development which may eventually merge with this upper low later this week. As this pattern evolves across the eastern CONUS, ridging will build across the western CONUS. Some warmer conditions are anticipated, however, winds are expected to be light across areas with dry fuels. The only period with even elevated fire-weather conditions forecast is on Day4/Wednesday when some dry and breezy conditions may develop in the lee of the northern Sierra/southern Cascades as a mid-level trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. However, fuels are not critically dry in this region. Therefore, only elevated conditions forecast at this time and unreceptive fuels preclude the need for any critical probabilities given the potential for fire-weather concerns is too low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Forecast guidance has come to a consensus for a cut off low which will dominate the weather for much of the central and eastern CONUS by the middle of this week. In addition, there is some potential for tropical development which may eventually merge with this upper low later this week. As this pattern evolves across the eastern CONUS, ridging will build across the western CONUS. Some warmer conditions are anticipated, however, winds are expected to be light across areas with dry fuels. The only period with even elevated fire-weather conditions forecast is on Day4/Wednesday when some dry and breezy conditions may develop in the lee of the northern Sierra/southern Cascades as a mid-level trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. However, fuels are not critically dry in this region. Therefore, only elevated conditions forecast at this time and unreceptive fuels preclude the need for any critical probabilities given the potential for fire-weather concerns is too low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. Read more