Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks into TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a digging trough over eastern MT with it forecast to move into the Dakotas this afternoon. A positive-tilt mid-level trough over the central Plains will move east and deamplify over the MS Valley overnight. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front over the Ozarks before moving to the IL/IN border by early Tuesday morning. Ongoing showers/thunderstorms over southeast MO will continue east into the lower OH Valley this morning and temper destabilization through at least midday. In its wake, models indicate MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg developing from AR into western KY/TN, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. The surface boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection later today with some of the stronger storms potentially capable of a localized severe threat. This activity is expected to diminish during the evening. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow. However, weak flow in the lowest 5 km and modest lapse rates will probably temper the overall potential for localized strong gusts (40-55 mph). ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks into TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a digging trough over eastern MT with it forecast to move into the Dakotas this afternoon. A positive-tilt mid-level trough over the central Plains will move east and deamplify over the MS Valley overnight. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front over the Ozarks before moving to the IL/IN border by early Tuesday morning. Ongoing showers/thunderstorms over southeast MO will continue east into the lower OH Valley this morning and temper destabilization through at least midday. In its wake, models indicate MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg developing from AR into western KY/TN, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. The surface boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection later today with some of the stronger storms potentially capable of a localized severe threat. This activity is expected to diminish during the evening. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow. However, weak flow in the lowest 5 km and modest lapse rates will probably temper the overall potential for localized strong gusts (40-55 mph). ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/23/2024 Read more