Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-end tropical cyclone related tornado risk may continue into Day 4/Fri from parts of the Southeast toward the central Appalachian vicinity. However, spread among medium range guidance is quite large at this time frame regarding the position of the remnant tropical cyclone. Beyond Day 4/Fri, medium range guidance generally maintains an closed upper cyclone across the broader Mid-South and Ohio Valley vicinity through Day 6/Sun before this feature weakens and an open wave trough evolves and progresses east toward the Atlantic coast through early next week. Meanwhile, upper ridging will persist across much of the western half of the CONUS. Overall, severe potential beyond Day 4/Fri appears low given areas of widespread precipitation and cloudiness, along with limited instability and weakening deep-layer flow with time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-end tropical cyclone related tornado risk may continue into Day 4/Fri from parts of the Southeast toward the central Appalachian vicinity. However, spread among medium range guidance is quite large at this time frame regarding the position of the remnant tropical cyclone. Beyond Day 4/Fri, medium range guidance generally maintains an closed upper cyclone across the broader Mid-South and Ohio Valley vicinity through Day 6/Sun before this feature weakens and an open wave trough evolves and progresses east toward the Atlantic coast through early next week. Meanwhile, upper ridging will persist across much of the western half of the CONUS. Overall, severe potential beyond Day 4/Fri appears low given areas of widespread precipitation and cloudiness, along with limited instability and weakening deep-layer flow with time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-end tropical cyclone related tornado risk may continue into Day 4/Fri from parts of the Southeast toward the central Appalachian vicinity. However, spread among medium range guidance is quite large at this time frame regarding the position of the remnant tropical cyclone. Beyond Day 4/Fri, medium range guidance generally maintains an closed upper cyclone across the broader Mid-South and Ohio Valley vicinity through Day 6/Sun before this feature weakens and an open wave trough evolves and progresses east toward the Atlantic coast through early next week. Meanwhile, upper ridging will persist across much of the western half of the CONUS. Overall, severe potential beyond Day 4/Fri appears low given areas of widespread precipitation and cloudiness, along with limited instability and weakening deep-layer flow with time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-end tropical cyclone related tornado risk may continue into Day 4/Fri from parts of the Southeast toward the central Appalachian vicinity. However, spread among medium range guidance is quite large at this time frame regarding the position of the remnant tropical cyclone. Beyond Day 4/Fri, medium range guidance generally maintains an closed upper cyclone across the broader Mid-South and Ohio Valley vicinity through Day 6/Sun before this feature weakens and an open wave trough evolves and progresses east toward the Atlantic coast through early next week. Meanwhile, upper ridging will persist across much of the western half of the CONUS. Overall, severe potential beyond Day 4/Fri appears low given areas of widespread precipitation and cloudiness, along with limited instability and weakening deep-layer flow with time. Read more

MD 2099 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR KENTUCKY...FAR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Areas affected...Kentucky...Far Southeast Illinois...Far Southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240556Z - 240830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will continue across the Ohio Valley over the next several hours. A severe wind gust, or a brief tornado will be possible. The severe threat is expected to remain marginal, and watch issuance appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Ozarks. A distinct vorticity max is evident on mosaic radar as an MCV in far southeast Missouri. Thunderstorms are ongoing from near the MCV extending northeastward into southern Illinois and southern Indiana, near a maximum in warm air advection. Surface dewpoints in the lower Ohio Valley are in the upper 60s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE up to 750 J/kg in the vicinity of Evansville, Indiana. The WSR-88D VWP at Louisville has 0-6 km shear around 45 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 175 m2/s2. Directional shear is confined mostly to the lowest 1 kilometer. This wind profile should be enough for transient supercell structure. Any tornado that forms would likely be brief. An isolated severe gust will also be possible, especially if any of the cells can obtain a bowing structure. ..Broyles/Smith.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38588746 37968858 37498899 37138902 36918858 36898743 36918552 37288477 38038439 38578496 38708635 38588746 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tropical cyclone is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical cyclone related tornadoes will accompany convection within the outer bands. ...FL/GA vicinity... A broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been delineated for parts of northern FL into GA as a tropical cyclone is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland Thursday evening into early Friday. Southeasterly flow will increase over the region in response to the northerly moving hurricane. While exact track, size, and intensity of the storm is still somewhat uncertain, the favored eastern semi-circle of the storm should bring some risk for tornadoes to portions of the area. Forecast soundings indicated low to mid 70s F dewpoints amid strong low-level shear and sufficient instability to support rotation within low-top supercells associated with the outer bands of the tropical system. The outlook area may need to be refined in subsequent forecasts as storm track and evolution of convective bands becomes more certain, but inclusion of low-end probabilities appears prudent based on trends the past few model cycles. Reference the National Hurricane Center forecast for further details related to this potential tropical cyclone. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tropical cyclone is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical cyclone related tornadoes will accompany convection within the outer bands. ...FL/GA vicinity... A broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been delineated for parts of northern FL into GA as a tropical cyclone is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland Thursday evening into early Friday. Southeasterly flow will increase over the region in response to the northerly moving hurricane. While exact track, size, and intensity of the storm is still somewhat uncertain, the favored eastern semi-circle of the storm should bring some risk for tornadoes to portions of the area. Forecast soundings indicated low to mid 70s F dewpoints amid strong low-level shear and sufficient instability to support rotation within low-top supercells associated with the outer bands of the tropical system. The outlook area may need to be refined in subsequent forecasts as storm track and evolution of convective bands becomes more certain, but inclusion of low-end probabilities appears prudent based on trends the past few model cycles. Reference the National Hurricane Center forecast for further details related to this potential tropical cyclone. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tropical cyclone is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical cyclone related tornadoes will accompany convection within the outer bands. ...FL/GA vicinity... A broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been delineated for parts of northern FL into GA as a tropical cyclone is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland Thursday evening into early Friday. Southeasterly flow will increase over the region in response to the northerly moving hurricane. While exact track, size, and intensity of the storm is still somewhat uncertain, the favored eastern semi-circle of the storm should bring some risk for tornadoes to portions of the area. Forecast soundings indicated low to mid 70s F dewpoints amid strong low-level shear and sufficient instability to support rotation within low-top supercells associated with the outer bands of the tropical system. The outlook area may need to be refined in subsequent forecasts as storm track and evolution of convective bands becomes more certain, but inclusion of low-end probabilities appears prudent based on trends the past few model cycles. Reference the National Hurricane Center forecast for further details related to this potential tropical cyclone. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tropical cyclone is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical cyclone related tornadoes will accompany convection within the outer bands. ...FL/GA vicinity... A broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been delineated for parts of northern FL into GA as a tropical cyclone is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland Thursday evening into early Friday. Southeasterly flow will increase over the region in response to the northerly moving hurricane. While exact track, size, and intensity of the storm is still somewhat uncertain, the favored eastern semi-circle of the storm should bring some risk for tornadoes to portions of the area. Forecast soundings indicated low to mid 70s F dewpoints amid strong low-level shear and sufficient instability to support rotation within low-top supercells associated with the outer bands of the tropical system. The outlook area may need to be refined in subsequent forecasts as storm track and evolution of convective bands becomes more certain, but inclusion of low-end probabilities appears prudent based on trends the past few model cycles. Reference the National Hurricane Center forecast for further details related to this potential tropical cyclone. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tropical cyclone is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical cyclone related tornadoes will accompany convection within the outer bands. ...FL/GA vicinity... A broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been delineated for parts of northern FL into GA as a tropical cyclone is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland Thursday evening into early Friday. Southeasterly flow will increase over the region in response to the northerly moving hurricane. While exact track, size, and intensity of the storm is still somewhat uncertain, the favored eastern semi-circle of the storm should bring some risk for tornadoes to portions of the area. Forecast soundings indicated low to mid 70s F dewpoints amid strong low-level shear and sufficient instability to support rotation within low-top supercells associated with the outer bands of the tropical system. The outlook area may need to be refined in subsequent forecasts as storm track and evolution of convective bands becomes more certain, but inclusion of low-end probabilities appears prudent based on trends the past few model cycles. Reference the National Hurricane Center forecast for further details related to this potential tropical cyclone. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more