Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough over the Southwest on Saturday will start to be absorbed within the more broad westerlies on Monday as it moves into the Missouri region. As this occurs, a belt of mid-level flow will overspread the Ozarks to Ohio Valley region where a moist airmass is in place ahead of a synoptic cold front. This cold front will move slowly east through the period Monday. ...Ozarks to Ohio Valley Region... Extensive cloud-cover from overnight convection will likely limit warm-sector heating from northern Arkansas and southern Missouri to western Kentucky and southern Indiana on Monday. However, at least some breaks in the clouds should result in pockets of greater destabilization, particularly later in the day. Inhibition will be limited across the warm sector, so any areas with greater surface heating will likely convect given the moist airmass and weak height falls during the day. The lack of strong heating or any capping inversion should keep instability somewhat weak through the day and result in a mostly marginal severe threat despite moderate deep-layer shear. A few stronger storms are possible within this zone of weak instability and moderate shear which may pose a threat for large hail or damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough over the Southwest on Saturday will start to be absorbed within the more broad westerlies on Monday as it moves into the Missouri region. As this occurs, a belt of mid-level flow will overspread the Ozarks to Ohio Valley region where a moist airmass is in place ahead of a synoptic cold front. This cold front will move slowly east through the period Monday. ...Ozarks to Ohio Valley Region... Extensive cloud-cover from overnight convection will likely limit warm-sector heating from northern Arkansas and southern Missouri to western Kentucky and southern Indiana on Monday. However, at least some breaks in the clouds should result in pockets of greater destabilization, particularly later in the day. Inhibition will be limited across the warm sector, so any areas with greater surface heating will likely convect given the moist airmass and weak height falls during the day. The lack of strong heating or any capping inversion should keep instability somewhat weak through the day and result in a mostly marginal severe threat despite moderate deep-layer shear. A few stronger storms are possible within this zone of weak instability and moderate shear which may pose a threat for large hail or damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough over the Southwest on Saturday will start to be absorbed within the more broad westerlies on Monday as it moves into the Missouri region. As this occurs, a belt of mid-level flow will overspread the Ozarks to Ohio Valley region where a moist airmass is in place ahead of a synoptic cold front. This cold front will move slowly east through the period Monday. ...Ozarks to Ohio Valley Region... Extensive cloud-cover from overnight convection will likely limit warm-sector heating from northern Arkansas and southern Missouri to western Kentucky and southern Indiana on Monday. However, at least some breaks in the clouds should result in pockets of greater destabilization, particularly later in the day. Inhibition will be limited across the warm sector, so any areas with greater surface heating will likely convect given the moist airmass and weak height falls during the day. The lack of strong heating or any capping inversion should keep instability somewhat weak through the day and result in a mostly marginal severe threat despite moderate deep-layer shear. A few stronger storms are possible within this zone of weak instability and moderate shear which may pose a threat for large hail or damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough over the Southwest on Saturday will start to be absorbed within the more broad westerlies on Monday as it moves into the Missouri region. As this occurs, a belt of mid-level flow will overspread the Ozarks to Ohio Valley region where a moist airmass is in place ahead of a synoptic cold front. This cold front will move slowly east through the period Monday. ...Ozarks to Ohio Valley Region... Extensive cloud-cover from overnight convection will likely limit warm-sector heating from northern Arkansas and southern Missouri to western Kentucky and southern Indiana on Monday. However, at least some breaks in the clouds should result in pockets of greater destabilization, particularly later in the day. Inhibition will be limited across the warm sector, so any areas with greater surface heating will likely convect given the moist airmass and weak height falls during the day. The lack of strong heating or any capping inversion should keep instability somewhat weak through the day and result in a mostly marginal severe threat despite moderate deep-layer shear. A few stronger storms are possible within this zone of weak instability and moderate shear which may pose a threat for large hail or damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough over the Southwest on Saturday will start to be absorbed within the more broad westerlies on Monday as it moves into the Missouri region. As this occurs, a belt of mid-level flow will overspread the Ozarks to Ohio Valley region where a moist airmass is in place ahead of a synoptic cold front. This cold front will move slowly east through the period Monday. ...Ozarks to Ohio Valley Region... Extensive cloud-cover from overnight convection will likely limit warm-sector heating from northern Arkansas and southern Missouri to western Kentucky and southern Indiana on Monday. However, at least some breaks in the clouds should result in pockets of greater destabilization, particularly later in the day. Inhibition will be limited across the warm sector, so any areas with greater surface heating will likely convect given the moist airmass and weak height falls during the day. The lack of strong heating or any capping inversion should keep instability somewhat weak through the day and result in a mostly marginal severe threat despite moderate deep-layer shear. A few stronger storms are possible within this zone of weak instability and moderate shear which may pose a threat for large hail or damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough over the Southwest on Saturday will start to be absorbed within the more broad westerlies on Monday as it moves into the Missouri region. As this occurs, a belt of mid-level flow will overspread the Ozarks to Ohio Valley region where a moist airmass is in place ahead of a synoptic cold front. This cold front will move slowly east through the period Monday. ...Ozarks to Ohio Valley Region... Extensive cloud-cover from overnight convection will likely limit warm-sector heating from northern Arkansas and southern Missouri to western Kentucky and southern Indiana on Monday. However, at least some breaks in the clouds should result in pockets of greater destabilization, particularly later in the day. Inhibition will be limited across the warm sector, so any areas with greater surface heating will likely convect given the moist airmass and weak height falls during the day. The lack of strong heating or any capping inversion should keep instability somewhat weak through the day and result in a mostly marginal severe threat despite moderate deep-layer shear. A few stronger storms are possible within this zone of weak instability and moderate shear which may pose a threat for large hail or damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/21/2024 Read more

MD 2094 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2094 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 211815Z - 212015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Persistent upslope flow and daytime heating should allow for continued thunderstorm development early this afternoon over eastern NM. Gradual intensification/organization into supercells is expected. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible. A WW is likely needed. DISCUSSION...As of 1810 UTC, regional WV imagery showed a potent upper low quickly overspreading the southern Rockies and High Plains. Height falls and the approach of a 70 kt speed max will support fairly strong forcing for ascent over the region through the next several hours. Diurnal heating and low-level warm air advection over much of eastern NM and west TX will support moderate destabilization with 1500-2000 J/Kg of MLCAPE expected. In combination with the synoptic scale-forcing and continued upslope of low-60s F surface dewpoints, additional storm development is likely early this afternoon. As convection evolves, the strong mid-level flow aloft will also gradually overspread the area, supporting large effective shear. KFDX VAD data shows veering low and mid-level hodographs have expanded, with 45-50 kt of effective shear present. Storm organization into supercells is expected with time. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates (~7-8 C/Km) and the semi-discrete mode suggest large to very large hail will be likely with the more robust supercells. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are also possible, owing to the strengthening flow aloft, and enhanced low-level shear near a diffuse surface boundary. Short-term model guidance and observational trends suggest the ongoing convection should steadily increase in intensity/organization through the remainder of the afternoon. Additional storm development/intensification is also likely along the cold front across central NM later this afternoon, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. With the potential for all hazards across much of eastern NM and west TX, a WW appears likely in the next couple of hours. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 35490474 36430340 36430178 35850129 35330100 34130133 31620314 31110422 31170503 31580537 32550541 34130526 34720509 35490474 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No change is needed to the ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No change is needed to the ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No change is needed to the ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No change is needed to the ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No change is needed to the ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No change is needed to the ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No change is needed to the ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No change is needed to the ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No change is needed to the ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No change is needed to the ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No change is needed to the ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from west Texas to central/southern Missouri. ...Synopsis... A filling mid-level low will move toward the central High Plains on Sunday afternoon/evening. Moderate mid-level flow will maintain southeast of this low and overspread the Oklahoma/southern Kansas vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will extend from southern Michigan across Illinois and Missouri and into Oklahoma and Texas. ...Southern Missouri across Oklahoma and into West Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the surface front across the TX Panhandle and into Oklahoma and from central Kansas, across Missouri, and to southern Illinois Sunday morning. A seasonally moist airmass featuring upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints will exist ahead of the surface front Sunday afternoon/evening. Surface heating ahead of the front should result in moderate instability amid a marginally sheared airmass. A few stronger/organized storms are possible with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts, especially where any clustering or line segments can develop. Some large hail is also possible, where a few supercells are possible across northwest Texas and West Texas. The severe threat will be primarily diurnally driven with minimal severe concerns after 1-3 UTC. ..Bentley.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from west Texas to central/southern Missouri. ...Synopsis... A filling mid-level low will move toward the central High Plains on Sunday afternoon/evening. Moderate mid-level flow will maintain southeast of this low and overspread the Oklahoma/southern Kansas vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will extend from southern Michigan across Illinois and Missouri and into Oklahoma and Texas. ...Southern Missouri across Oklahoma and into West Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the surface front across the TX Panhandle and into Oklahoma and from central Kansas, across Missouri, and to southern Illinois Sunday morning. A seasonally moist airmass featuring upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints will exist ahead of the surface front Sunday afternoon/evening. Surface heating ahead of the front should result in moderate instability amid a marginally sheared airmass. A few stronger/organized storms are possible with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts, especially where any clustering or line segments can develop. Some large hail is also possible, where a few supercells are possible across northwest Texas and West Texas. The severe threat will be primarily diurnally driven with minimal severe concerns after 1-3 UTC. ..Bentley.. 09/21/2024 Read more