Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Forecast confidence is low during the Day 4-8 period as large spread is evident across medium range forecast guidance. Some low-end severe potential (sub-15 percent) may continue into Day 4/Tuesday over parts of the OH/TN Valleys and adjacent Appalachians as a surface cold front continue to progress east amid modest mid/upper level southwesterly flow. Thereafter, guidance suggests a cut-off upper low will develop over some part of the central section of the CONUS, though confidence is the evolution of this feature is low. Despite this uncertainty, severe potential appears low beyond Day 4/Tuesday given prior cold frontal passage and limited Gulf return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Forecast confidence is low during the Day 4-8 period as large spread is evident across medium range forecast guidance. Some low-end severe potential (sub-15 percent) may continue into Day 4/Tuesday over parts of the OH/TN Valleys and adjacent Appalachians as a surface cold front continue to progress east amid modest mid/upper level southwesterly flow. Thereafter, guidance suggests a cut-off upper low will develop over some part of the central section of the CONUS, though confidence is the evolution of this feature is low. Despite this uncertainty, severe potential appears low beyond Day 4/Tuesday given prior cold frontal passage and limited Gulf return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Forecast confidence is low during the Day 4-8 period as large spread is evident across medium range forecast guidance. Some low-end severe potential (sub-15 percent) may continue into Day 4/Tuesday over parts of the OH/TN Valleys and adjacent Appalachians as a surface cold front continue to progress east amid modest mid/upper level southwesterly flow. Thereafter, guidance suggests a cut-off upper low will develop over some part of the central section of the CONUS, though confidence is the evolution of this feature is low. Despite this uncertainty, severe potential appears low beyond Day 4/Tuesday given prior cold frontal passage and limited Gulf return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Forecast confidence is low during the Day 4-8 period as large spread is evident across medium range forecast guidance. Some low-end severe potential (sub-15 percent) may continue into Day 4/Tuesday over parts of the OH/TN Valleys and adjacent Appalachians as a surface cold front continue to progress east amid modest mid/upper level southwesterly flow. Thereafter, guidance suggests a cut-off upper low will develop over some part of the central section of the CONUS, though confidence is the evolution of this feature is low. Despite this uncertainty, severe potential appears low beyond Day 4/Tuesday given prior cold frontal passage and limited Gulf return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Forecast confidence is low during the Day 4-8 period as large spread is evident across medium range forecast guidance. Some low-end severe potential (sub-15 percent) may continue into Day 4/Tuesday over parts of the OH/TN Valleys and adjacent Appalachians as a surface cold front continue to progress east amid modest mid/upper level southwesterly flow. Thereafter, guidance suggests a cut-off upper low will develop over some part of the central section of the CONUS, though confidence is the evolution of this feature is low. Despite this uncertainty, severe potential appears low beyond Day 4/Tuesday given prior cold frontal passage and limited Gulf return flow. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today as a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances across much of the central/northern Plains. Brief periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across portions of New Mexico as enhanced mid-level flow rounds the western US upper low. In this region, relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will briefly overlap winds around 15-20 mph. Fuels across this region remain unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time with potential for additional rainfall from thunderstorm activity on Saturday. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today as a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances across much of the central/northern Plains. Brief periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across portions of New Mexico as enhanced mid-level flow rounds the western US upper low. In this region, relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will briefly overlap winds around 15-20 mph. Fuels across this region remain unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time with potential for additional rainfall from thunderstorm activity on Saturday. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today as a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances across much of the central/northern Plains. Brief periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across portions of New Mexico as enhanced mid-level flow rounds the western US upper low. In this region, relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will briefly overlap winds around 15-20 mph. Fuels across this region remain unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time with potential for additional rainfall from thunderstorm activity on Saturday. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today as a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances across much of the central/northern Plains. Brief periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across portions of New Mexico as enhanced mid-level flow rounds the western US upper low. In this region, relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will briefly overlap winds around 15-20 mph. Fuels across this region remain unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time with potential for additional rainfall from thunderstorm activity on Saturday. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today as a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances across much of the central/northern Plains. Brief periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across portions of New Mexico as enhanced mid-level flow rounds the western US upper low. In this region, relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will briefly overlap winds around 15-20 mph. Fuels across this region remain unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time with potential for additional rainfall from thunderstorm activity on Saturday. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Ohio Valley and Mid-South vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MS Valley will become absorbed within a larger-scale trough shifting east across the Plains on Monday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper level southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley/Mid-South vicinity through much of the period. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across the Ohio and the Mid/Lower MS Valley area. A seasonally moist airmass characterized by 60s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of the front. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are likely from MO through the Ohio Valley early in the period, resulting in forecast uncertainty. Nevertheless, enhanced midlevel flow overspreading a moist airmass ahead of a cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms where greater destabilization occurs. Locally damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most likely concerns with the strongest convection Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Ohio Valley and Mid-South vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MS Valley will become absorbed within a larger-scale trough shifting east across the Plains on Monday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper level southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley/Mid-South vicinity through much of the period. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across the Ohio and the Mid/Lower MS Valley area. A seasonally moist airmass characterized by 60s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of the front. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are likely from MO through the Ohio Valley early in the period, resulting in forecast uncertainty. Nevertheless, enhanced midlevel flow overspreading a moist airmass ahead of a cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms where greater destabilization occurs. Locally damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most likely concerns with the strongest convection Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Ohio Valley and Mid-South vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MS Valley will become absorbed within a larger-scale trough shifting east across the Plains on Monday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper level southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley/Mid-South vicinity through much of the period. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across the Ohio and the Mid/Lower MS Valley area. A seasonally moist airmass characterized by 60s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of the front. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are likely from MO through the Ohio Valley early in the period, resulting in forecast uncertainty. Nevertheless, enhanced midlevel flow overspreading a moist airmass ahead of a cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms where greater destabilization occurs. Locally damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most likely concerns with the strongest convection Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Ohio Valley and Mid-South vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MS Valley will become absorbed within a larger-scale trough shifting east across the Plains on Monday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper level southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley/Mid-South vicinity through much of the period. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across the Ohio and the Mid/Lower MS Valley area. A seasonally moist airmass characterized by 60s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of the front. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are likely from MO through the Ohio Valley early in the period, resulting in forecast uncertainty. Nevertheless, enhanced midlevel flow overspreading a moist airmass ahead of a cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms where greater destabilization occurs. Locally damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most likely concerns with the strongest convection Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from west Texas to central/southern Missouri. ...Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley... Forecast guidance has trended somewhat southward with severe potential on Sunday, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been adjusted to reflect latest model trends. An upper shortwave trough over the central/southern Rockies Sunday morning will eject east to the mid-MS Valley by Monday morning. This will bring a belt of 40-50 kt mid/upper southwesterly flow over the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast from near Lake Michigan to northwest Texas at midday to the Ohio Valley and central Texas by 12z Monday. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F forecast. Some uncertainty remains in where the corridor of greater strong/severe storm potential will develop, mainly driven by ongoing convection across parts of the region Sunday morning. Nevertheless, where pockets of greater heating occur, favorable vertical shear and increasing forcing from both the surface front and the ejecting midlevel wave, will support organized storm development. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm clusters and line segments. However, vertical shear may be suitable for a few supercells, especially across west Texas. Isolated large hail will be possible with any more discrete cells that develop and can be maintained ahead of the front. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2024 Read more