Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in the Northwest during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains... A decaying MCS is currently moving through the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Expectation is for this system to continue south-southeastward for the next several hours while gradually weakening. Cool outflow and cloud cover associated with this system will have an impact on the severe potential across the region today, leading to above-average uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution. The overall environment from the TX Panhandle southward through the South Plains and eastward into western OK and northwest TX will be characterized by moderate northwesterly flow aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and afternoon surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. These conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy across much of the region, but areas under the influence of the MCS's outflow and/or cloud cover will likely remain capped due to limited/filtered diurnal heating. Current expectation is for the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to remain south of the outflow, allowing for strong heating and airmass destabilization. The outflow is expected to act as the primary impetus for convective initiation across the region this afternoon. Additional areas of low-level convergence near a weak surface low over southeast NM and the weak lee troughing extending from southeast CO across eastern NM could result in a few storms as well. Low-level easterly/southeasterly flow veering to northwesterly in the mid levels will result in moderate vertical shear, with the overall wind profile quite supportive for large hail. As such, there is a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail. With time, some upscale growth into one or more linear clusters with an increased risk for damaging gusts is possible. ...Central High Plains... Early morning surface analysis placed a broad area of low pressure from northeast CO into southwest SD. A low is expected develop within this region by the early afternoon, and low-level convergence in the vicinity of this low will likely result in thunderstorm initiation. Late afternoon initiation is possible along the weak lee trough across eastern WY as well. Moderate buoyancy will support strong updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any forward-propagating clusters that can develop. ...Northwest... Shortwave trough currently off the northern CA coast is forecast to continue northeastward today, with lift associated with this system impinging on the region by the early afternoon. Increasing mid-level moisture (already apparent on the 12Z BOI sounding) will help support moderate buoyancy and the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow ahead of the shortwave will increase deep-layer shear to 30-40 kt, supporting some storm organization. Steep lapse rates with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for high-based semi-organized clusters will favor strong downdrafts capable of occasional severe gusts with the stronger storms. Small hail will also be possible with any more persistent clusters or weak supercell structures despite the limited buoyancy. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/03/2025 Read more