Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest GOES imagery and surface observations show gradual clearing and warming across the TX/OK Panhandles in the wake of prior convection. An 18z AMA sounding sampled the eastern fringe of an EML/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 knot mid-level flow, but showed substantial low/mid-level inhibition even when adjusting for recent temperature trends. This continues to cast uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity through the evening hours, though recent CAM solutions maintain that at least a few cells and/or clusters will migrate across the Slight risk area later today/tonight. Further north, early signs of convective development are noted across northwest KS into western NE/SD where stronger heating should foster thunderstorm development, though weaker forcing for ascent and deep-layer wind shear should limit overall storm coverage and intensity. A cluster of thunderstorms that recently moved through the Dallas/Fort-Worth metro area has shown signs of weakening per GOES IR and MRMS imagery. This trend is expected to continue as storms migrate into a more weakly sheared environment downstream. See the previous discussion below for additional details as well as MCD #1877 for short-term details pertaining to the Pacific Northwest severe risk. ..Moore.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest GOES imagery and surface observations show gradual clearing and warming across the TX/OK Panhandles in the wake of prior convection. An 18z AMA sounding sampled the eastern fringe of an EML/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 knot mid-level flow, but showed substantial low/mid-level inhibition even when adjusting for recent temperature trends. This continues to cast uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity through the evening hours, though recent CAM solutions maintain that at least a few cells and/or clusters will migrate across the Slight risk area later today/tonight. Further north, early signs of convective development are noted across northwest KS into western NE/SD where stronger heating should foster thunderstorm development, though weaker forcing for ascent and deep-layer wind shear should limit overall storm coverage and intensity. A cluster of thunderstorms that recently moved through the Dallas/Fort-Worth metro area has shown signs of weakening per GOES IR and MRMS imagery. This trend is expected to continue as storms migrate into a more weakly sheared environment downstream. See the previous discussion below for additional details as well as MCD #1877 for short-term details pertaining to the Pacific Northwest severe risk. ..Moore.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest GOES imagery and surface observations show gradual clearing and warming across the TX/OK Panhandles in the wake of prior convection. An 18z AMA sounding sampled the eastern fringe of an EML/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 knot mid-level flow, but showed substantial low/mid-level inhibition even when adjusting for recent temperature trends. This continues to cast uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity through the evening hours, though recent CAM solutions maintain that at least a few cells and/or clusters will migrate across the Slight risk area later today/tonight. Further north, early signs of convective development are noted across northwest KS into western NE/SD where stronger heating should foster thunderstorm development, though weaker forcing for ascent and deep-layer wind shear should limit overall storm coverage and intensity. A cluster of thunderstorms that recently moved through the Dallas/Fort-Worth metro area has shown signs of weakening per GOES IR and MRMS imagery. This trend is expected to continue as storms migrate into a more weakly sheared environment downstream. See the previous discussion below for additional details as well as MCD #1877 for short-term details pertaining to the Pacific Northwest severe risk. ..Moore.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest GOES imagery and surface observations show gradual clearing and warming across the TX/OK Panhandles in the wake of prior convection. An 18z AMA sounding sampled the eastern fringe of an EML/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 knot mid-level flow, but showed substantial low/mid-level inhibition even when adjusting for recent temperature trends. This continues to cast uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity through the evening hours, though recent CAM solutions maintain that at least a few cells and/or clusters will migrate across the Slight risk area later today/tonight. Further north, early signs of convective development are noted across northwest KS into western NE/SD where stronger heating should foster thunderstorm development, though weaker forcing for ascent and deep-layer wind shear should limit overall storm coverage and intensity. A cluster of thunderstorms that recently moved through the Dallas/Fort-Worth metro area has shown signs of weakening per GOES IR and MRMS imagery. This trend is expected to continue as storms migrate into a more weakly sheared environment downstream. See the previous discussion below for additional details as well as MCD #1877 for short-term details pertaining to the Pacific Northwest severe risk. ..Moore.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest GOES imagery and surface observations show gradual clearing and warming across the TX/OK Panhandles in the wake of prior convection. An 18z AMA sounding sampled the eastern fringe of an EML/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 knot mid-level flow, but showed substantial low/mid-level inhibition even when adjusting for recent temperature trends. This continues to cast uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity through the evening hours, though recent CAM solutions maintain that at least a few cells and/or clusters will migrate across the Slight risk area later today/tonight. Further north, early signs of convective development are noted across northwest KS into western NE/SD where stronger heating should foster thunderstorm development, though weaker forcing for ascent and deep-layer wind shear should limit overall storm coverage and intensity. A cluster of thunderstorms that recently moved through the Dallas/Fort-Worth metro area has shown signs of weakening per GOES IR and MRMS imagery. This trend is expected to continue as storms migrate into a more weakly sheared environment downstream. See the previous discussion below for additional details as well as MCD #1877 for short-term details pertaining to the Pacific Northwest severe risk. ..Moore.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest GOES imagery and surface observations show gradual clearing and warming across the TX/OK Panhandles in the wake of prior convection. An 18z AMA sounding sampled the eastern fringe of an EML/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 knot mid-level flow, but showed substantial low/mid-level inhibition even when adjusting for recent temperature trends. This continues to cast uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity through the evening hours, though recent CAM solutions maintain that at least a few cells and/or clusters will migrate across the Slight risk area later today/tonight. Further north, early signs of convective development are noted across northwest KS into western NE/SD where stronger heating should foster thunderstorm development, though weaker forcing for ascent and deep-layer wind shear should limit overall storm coverage and intensity. A cluster of thunderstorms that recently moved through the Dallas/Fort-Worth metro area has shown signs of weakening per GOES IR and MRMS imagery. This trend is expected to continue as storms migrate into a more weakly sheared environment downstream. See the previous discussion below for additional details as well as MCD #1877 for short-term details pertaining to the Pacific Northwest severe risk. ..Moore.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest GOES imagery and surface observations show gradual clearing and warming across the TX/OK Panhandles in the wake of prior convection. An 18z AMA sounding sampled the eastern fringe of an EML/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 knot mid-level flow, but showed substantial low/mid-level inhibition even when adjusting for recent temperature trends. This continues to cast uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity through the evening hours, though recent CAM solutions maintain that at least a few cells and/or clusters will migrate across the Slight risk area later today/tonight. Further north, early signs of convective development are noted across northwest KS into western NE/SD where stronger heating should foster thunderstorm development, though weaker forcing for ascent and deep-layer wind shear should limit overall storm coverage and intensity. A cluster of thunderstorms that recently moved through the Dallas/Fort-Worth metro area has shown signs of weakening per GOES IR and MRMS imagery. This trend is expected to continue as storms migrate into a more weakly sheared environment downstream. See the previous discussion below for additional details as well as MCD #1877 for short-term details pertaining to the Pacific Northwest severe risk. ..Moore.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 3 18:53:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more