Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a trough is forecast to sharpen during the day across the far western Dakotas. To the east of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the northern Plains. By afternoon, a north-to-south axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of the surface trough from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Within the moist sector, model consensus suggests that MLCAPE will peak in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with the overall maximum located in western South Dakota. Low-level convergence will likely increase near and to the east of the surface trough, with scattered convective initiation expected near the trough in the late afternoon. These storms should spread eastward across west-central South Dakota and southwestern North Dakota during the late afternoon and early evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings during the late afternoon across northwestern South Dakota have supercell wind profiles, with directional shear in the low to mid-levels, and 35 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. This environment would favor isolated large hail with rotating cells that remain discrete. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that form within a larger-scale cluster. The severe threat should persist into the mid evening, and could extend southward into northern Nebraska. However, severe threat magnitude is expected to be more isolated with southward extent, mainly due to more limited large-scale ascent. Further north into parts of north-central North Dakota and westward into northeast Montana, an isolated severe threat will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is expected less favorable than in areas to the south. This will likely keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a trough is forecast to sharpen during the day across the far western Dakotas. To the east of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the northern Plains. By afternoon, a north-to-south axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of the surface trough from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Within the moist sector, model consensus suggests that MLCAPE will peak in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with the overall maximum located in western South Dakota. Low-level convergence will likely increase near and to the east of the surface trough, with scattered convective initiation expected near the trough in the late afternoon. These storms should spread eastward across west-central South Dakota and southwestern North Dakota during the late afternoon and early evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings during the late afternoon across northwestern South Dakota have supercell wind profiles, with directional shear in the low to mid-levels, and 35 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. This environment would favor isolated large hail with rotating cells that remain discrete. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that form within a larger-scale cluster. The severe threat should persist into the mid evening, and could extend southward into northern Nebraska. However, severe threat magnitude is expected to be more isolated with southward extent, mainly due to more limited large-scale ascent. Further north into parts of north-central North Dakota and westward into northeast Montana, an isolated severe threat will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is expected less favorable than in areas to the south. This will likely keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a trough is forecast to sharpen during the day across the far western Dakotas. To the east of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the northern Plains. By afternoon, a north-to-south axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of the surface trough from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Within the moist sector, model consensus suggests that MLCAPE will peak in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with the overall maximum located in western South Dakota. Low-level convergence will likely increase near and to the east of the surface trough, with scattered convective initiation expected near the trough in the late afternoon. These storms should spread eastward across west-central South Dakota and southwestern North Dakota during the late afternoon and early evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings during the late afternoon across northwestern South Dakota have supercell wind profiles, with directional shear in the low to mid-levels, and 35 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. This environment would favor isolated large hail with rotating cells that remain discrete. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that form within a larger-scale cluster. The severe threat should persist into the mid evening, and could extend southward into northern Nebraska. However, severe threat magnitude is expected to be more isolated with southward extent, mainly due to more limited large-scale ascent. Further north into parts of north-central North Dakota and westward into northeast Montana, an isolated severe threat will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is expected less favorable than in areas to the south. This will likely keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a trough is forecast to sharpen during the day across the far western Dakotas. To the east of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the northern Plains. By afternoon, a north-to-south axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of the surface trough from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Within the moist sector, model consensus suggests that MLCAPE will peak in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with the overall maximum located in western South Dakota. Low-level convergence will likely increase near and to the east of the surface trough, with scattered convective initiation expected near the trough in the late afternoon. These storms should spread eastward across west-central South Dakota and southwestern North Dakota during the late afternoon and early evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings during the late afternoon across northwestern South Dakota have supercell wind profiles, with directional shear in the low to mid-levels, and 35 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. This environment would favor isolated large hail with rotating cells that remain discrete. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that form within a larger-scale cluster. The severe threat should persist into the mid evening, and could extend southward into northern Nebraska. However, severe threat magnitude is expected to be more isolated with southward extent, mainly due to more limited large-scale ascent. Further north into parts of north-central North Dakota and westward into northeast Montana, an isolated severe threat will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is expected less favorable than in areas to the south. This will likely keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a trough is forecast to sharpen during the day across the far western Dakotas. To the east of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the northern Plains. By afternoon, a north-to-south axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of the surface trough from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Within the moist sector, model consensus suggests that MLCAPE will peak in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with the overall maximum located in western South Dakota. Low-level convergence will likely increase near and to the east of the surface trough, with scattered convective initiation expected near the trough in the late afternoon. These storms should spread eastward across west-central South Dakota and southwestern North Dakota during the late afternoon and early evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings during the late afternoon across northwestern South Dakota have supercell wind profiles, with directional shear in the low to mid-levels, and 35 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. This environment would favor isolated large hail with rotating cells that remain discrete. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that form within a larger-scale cluster. The severe threat should persist into the mid evening, and could extend southward into northern Nebraska. However, severe threat magnitude is expected to be more isolated with southward extent, mainly due to more limited large-scale ascent. Further north into parts of north-central North Dakota and westward into northeast Montana, an isolated severe threat will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is expected less favorable than in areas to the south. This will likely keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a trough is forecast to sharpen during the day across the far western Dakotas. To the east of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the northern Plains. By afternoon, a north-to-south axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of the surface trough from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Within the moist sector, model consensus suggests that MLCAPE will peak in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with the overall maximum located in western South Dakota. Low-level convergence will likely increase near and to the east of the surface trough, with scattered convective initiation expected near the trough in the late afternoon. These storms should spread eastward across west-central South Dakota and southwestern North Dakota during the late afternoon and early evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings during the late afternoon across northwestern South Dakota have supercell wind profiles, with directional shear in the low to mid-levels, and 35 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. This environment would favor isolated large hail with rotating cells that remain discrete. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that form within a larger-scale cluster. The severe threat should persist into the mid evening, and could extend southward into northern Nebraska. However, severe threat magnitude is expected to be more isolated with southward extent, mainly due to more limited large-scale ascent. Further north into parts of north-central North Dakota and westward into northeast Montana, an isolated severe threat will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is expected less favorable than in areas to the south. This will likely keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO/KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible today and tonight from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ..Central High Plains... Rather pronounced shortwave ridging is expected across the central High Plains through much of the day as troughing intensifies over the Northwest. With building heights aloft, synoptic forcing for ascent appears weak. Still, a subtle embedded perturbation should move eastward across the Rockies late in the afternoon, but it is unclear how much ascent this feature will support. Given the lack of stronger forcing for ascent, convective development over the central High Plains appears tied to diurnal heating and weak low-level upslope flow along the higher terrain of the Black Hills and eastern WY. This should favor widely scattered storm development within a hot and unstable air mass (MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg). Northwesterly flow aloft with elongated hodographs and 45-55 kt of effective shear will favor high-based supercells initially capable of hail (some significant) and damaging gusts before moving into more substantial low-level moisture farther east. With time, upscale growth appears likely given the strong outflow expected from the drier low-levels. Most CAM guidance shows one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandles... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated thunderstorm development across the Raton Mesa and TX/OK Panhandles late this afternoon/evening. Large-scale forcing is not particularly strong beneath the building upper ridge. Still, model soundings show uncapped profiles with large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 40-50 kt of effective shear. Should a storm develop it would likely be supercellular with the potential for hail and damaging gusts. A brief tornado is also possible as the low-level jet helps expand hodographs near sunset. The primary uncertainty for higher severe probabilities remains the limited forcing for ascent and the uncertainty on higher storm coverage. ...Montana... Model guidance shows a negatively tilted shortwave trough and mid-level jet streak moving across portions of the Northwest. This feature will track northeastward today, spreading broad ascent across the Northern Rockies. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates atop modest surface moisture (40s and 50s F dewpoints) will result in sufficient SBCAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. Convection will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Elongated hodographs (30-40 kt of bulk shear) will support a few organized clusters and rotating storms capable of damaging winds from strong downdrafts and some hail. The primary uncertainty for higher severe probabilities is the potential for limited buoyancy and lack of a stronger signal for consolidating outflow favoring higher damaging wind potential. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO/KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible today and tonight from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ..Central High Plains... Rather pronounced shortwave ridging is expected across the central High Plains through much of the day as troughing intensifies over the Northwest. With building heights aloft, synoptic forcing for ascent appears weak. Still, a subtle embedded perturbation should move eastward across the Rockies late in the afternoon, but it is unclear how much ascent this feature will support. Given the lack of stronger forcing for ascent, convective development over the central High Plains appears tied to diurnal heating and weak low-level upslope flow along the higher terrain of the Black Hills and eastern WY. This should favor widely scattered storm development within a hot and unstable air mass (MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg). Northwesterly flow aloft with elongated hodographs and 45-55 kt of effective shear will favor high-based supercells initially capable of hail (some significant) and damaging gusts before moving into more substantial low-level moisture farther east. With time, upscale growth appears likely given the strong outflow expected from the drier low-levels. Most CAM guidance shows one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandles... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated thunderstorm development across the Raton Mesa and TX/OK Panhandles late this afternoon/evening. Large-scale forcing is not particularly strong beneath the building upper ridge. Still, model soundings show uncapped profiles with large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 40-50 kt of effective shear. Should a storm develop it would likely be supercellular with the potential for hail and damaging gusts. A brief tornado is also possible as the low-level jet helps expand hodographs near sunset. The primary uncertainty for higher severe probabilities remains the limited forcing for ascent and the uncertainty on higher storm coverage. ...Montana... Model guidance shows a negatively tilted shortwave trough and mid-level jet streak moving across portions of the Northwest. This feature will track northeastward today, spreading broad ascent across the Northern Rockies. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates atop modest surface moisture (40s and 50s F dewpoints) will result in sufficient SBCAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. Convection will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Elongated hodographs (30-40 kt of bulk shear) will support a few organized clusters and rotating storms capable of damaging winds from strong downdrafts and some hail. The primary uncertainty for higher severe probabilities is the potential for limited buoyancy and lack of a stronger signal for consolidating outflow favoring higher damaging wind potential. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO/KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible today and tonight from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ..Central High Plains... Rather pronounced shortwave ridging is expected across the central High Plains through much of the day as troughing intensifies over the Northwest. With building heights aloft, synoptic forcing for ascent appears weak. Still, a subtle embedded perturbation should move eastward across the Rockies late in the afternoon, but it is unclear how much ascent this feature will support. Given the lack of stronger forcing for ascent, convective development over the central High Plains appears tied to diurnal heating and weak low-level upslope flow along the higher terrain of the Black Hills and eastern WY. This should favor widely scattered storm development within a hot and unstable air mass (MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg). Northwesterly flow aloft with elongated hodographs and 45-55 kt of effective shear will favor high-based supercells initially capable of hail (some significant) and damaging gusts before moving into more substantial low-level moisture farther east. With time, upscale growth appears likely given the strong outflow expected from the drier low-levels. Most CAM guidance shows one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandles... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated thunderstorm development across the Raton Mesa and TX/OK Panhandles late this afternoon/evening. Large-scale forcing is not particularly strong beneath the building upper ridge. Still, model soundings show uncapped profiles with large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 40-50 kt of effective shear. Should a storm develop it would likely be supercellular with the potential for hail and damaging gusts. A brief tornado is also possible as the low-level jet helps expand hodographs near sunset. The primary uncertainty for higher severe probabilities remains the limited forcing for ascent and the uncertainty on higher storm coverage. ...Montana... Model guidance shows a negatively tilted shortwave trough and mid-level jet streak moving across portions of the Northwest. This feature will track northeastward today, spreading broad ascent across the Northern Rockies. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates atop modest surface moisture (40s and 50s F dewpoints) will result in sufficient SBCAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. Convection will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Elongated hodographs (30-40 kt of bulk shear) will support a few organized clusters and rotating storms capable of damaging winds from strong downdrafts and some hail. The primary uncertainty for higher severe probabilities is the potential for limited buoyancy and lack of a stronger signal for consolidating outflow favoring higher damaging wind potential. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO/KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible today and tonight from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ..Central High Plains... Rather pronounced shortwave ridging is expected across the central High Plains through much of the day as troughing intensifies over the Northwest. With building heights aloft, synoptic forcing for ascent appears weak. Still, a subtle embedded perturbation should move eastward across the Rockies late in the afternoon, but it is unclear how much ascent this feature will support. Given the lack of stronger forcing for ascent, convective development over the central High Plains appears tied to diurnal heating and weak low-level upslope flow along the higher terrain of the Black Hills and eastern WY. This should favor widely scattered storm development within a hot and unstable air mass (MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg). Northwesterly flow aloft with elongated hodographs and 45-55 kt of effective shear will favor high-based supercells initially capable of hail (some significant) and damaging gusts before moving into more substantial low-level moisture farther east. With time, upscale growth appears likely given the strong outflow expected from the drier low-levels. Most CAM guidance shows one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandles... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated thunderstorm development across the Raton Mesa and TX/OK Panhandles late this afternoon/evening. Large-scale forcing is not particularly strong beneath the building upper ridge. Still, model soundings show uncapped profiles with large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 40-50 kt of effective shear. Should a storm develop it would likely be supercellular with the potential for hail and damaging gusts. A brief tornado is also possible as the low-level jet helps expand hodographs near sunset. The primary uncertainty for higher severe probabilities remains the limited forcing for ascent and the uncertainty on higher storm coverage. ...Montana... Model guidance shows a negatively tilted shortwave trough and mid-level jet streak moving across portions of the Northwest. This feature will track northeastward today, spreading broad ascent across the Northern Rockies. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates atop modest surface moisture (40s and 50s F dewpoints) will result in sufficient SBCAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. Convection will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Elongated hodographs (30-40 kt of bulk shear) will support a few organized clusters and rotating storms capable of damaging winds from strong downdrafts and some hail. The primary uncertainty for higher severe probabilities is the potential for limited buoyancy and lack of a stronger signal for consolidating outflow favoring higher damaging wind potential. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO/KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible today and tonight from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ..Central High Plains... Rather pronounced shortwave ridging is expected across the central High Plains through much of the day as troughing intensifies over the Northwest. With building heights aloft, synoptic forcing for ascent appears weak. Still, a subtle embedded perturbation should move eastward across the Rockies late in the afternoon, but it is unclear how much ascent this feature will support. Given the lack of stronger forcing for ascent, convective development over the central High Plains appears tied to diurnal heating and weak low-level upslope flow along the higher terrain of the Black Hills and eastern WY. This should favor widely scattered storm development within a hot and unstable air mass (MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg). Northwesterly flow aloft with elongated hodographs and 45-55 kt of effective shear will favor high-based supercells initially capable of hail (some significant) and damaging gusts before moving into more substantial low-level moisture farther east. With time, upscale growth appears likely given the strong outflow expected from the drier low-levels. Most CAM guidance shows one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandles... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated thunderstorm development across the Raton Mesa and TX/OK Panhandles late this afternoon/evening. Large-scale forcing is not particularly strong beneath the building upper ridge. Still, model soundings show uncapped profiles with large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 40-50 kt of effective shear. Should a storm develop it would likely be supercellular with the potential for hail and damaging gusts. A brief tornado is also possible as the low-level jet helps expand hodographs near sunset. The primary uncertainty for higher severe probabilities remains the limited forcing for ascent and the uncertainty on higher storm coverage. ...Montana... Model guidance shows a negatively tilted shortwave trough and mid-level jet streak moving across portions of the Northwest. This feature will track northeastward today, spreading broad ascent across the Northern Rockies. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates atop modest surface moisture (40s and 50s F dewpoints) will result in sufficient SBCAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. Convection will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Elongated hodographs (30-40 kt of bulk shear) will support a few organized clusters and rotating storms capable of damaging winds from strong downdrafts and some hail. The primary uncertainty for higher severe probabilities is the potential for limited buoyancy and lack of a stronger signal for consolidating outflow favoring higher damaging wind potential. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO/KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible today and tonight from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ..Central High Plains... Rather pronounced shortwave ridging is expected across the central High Plains through much of the day as troughing intensifies over the Northwest. With building heights aloft, synoptic forcing for ascent appears weak. Still, a subtle embedded perturbation should move eastward across the Rockies late in the afternoon, but it is unclear how much ascent this feature will support. Given the lack of stronger forcing for ascent, convective development over the central High Plains appears tied to diurnal heating and weak low-level upslope flow along the higher terrain of the Black Hills and eastern WY. This should favor widely scattered storm development within a hot and unstable air mass (MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg). Northwesterly flow aloft with elongated hodographs and 45-55 kt of effective shear will favor high-based supercells initially capable of hail (some significant) and damaging gusts before moving into more substantial low-level moisture farther east. With time, upscale growth appears likely given the strong outflow expected from the drier low-levels. Most CAM guidance shows one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandles... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated thunderstorm development across the Raton Mesa and TX/OK Panhandles late this afternoon/evening. Large-scale forcing is not particularly strong beneath the building upper ridge. Still, model soundings show uncapped profiles with large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 40-50 kt of effective shear. Should a storm develop it would likely be supercellular with the potential for hail and damaging gusts. A brief tornado is also possible as the low-level jet helps expand hodographs near sunset. The primary uncertainty for higher severe probabilities remains the limited forcing for ascent and the uncertainty on higher storm coverage. ...Montana... Model guidance shows a negatively tilted shortwave trough and mid-level jet streak moving across portions of the Northwest. This feature will track northeastward today, spreading broad ascent across the Northern Rockies. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates atop modest surface moisture (40s and 50s F dewpoints) will result in sufficient SBCAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. Convection will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Elongated hodographs (30-40 kt of bulk shear) will support a few organized clusters and rotating storms capable of damaging winds from strong downdrafts and some hail. The primary uncertainty for higher severe probabilities is the potential for limited buoyancy and lack of a stronger signal for consolidating outflow favoring higher damaging wind potential. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CDS TO 35 SSW AVK TO 20 SE P28. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882 ..DEAN..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-015-039-043-055-075-093-149-040540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CUSTER DEWEY GREER KIOWA MAJOR WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CDS TO 35 SSW AVK TO 20 SE P28. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882 ..DEAN..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-015-039-043-055-075-093-149-040540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CUSTER DEWEY GREER KIOWA MAJOR WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CDS TO 35 SSW AVK TO 20 SE P28. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882 ..DEAN..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-015-039-043-055-075-093-149-040540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CUSTER DEWEY GREER KIOWA MAJOR WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CDS TO 35 SSW AVK TO 20 SE P28. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882 ..DEAN..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-015-039-043-055-075-093-149-040540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CUSTER DEWEY GREER KIOWA MAJOR WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1882 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570... FOR PARTS OF OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1882 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0929 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Areas affected...Parts of OK/TX Panhandles into northwest OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570... Valid 040229Z - 040400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for severe wind and hail will spread south-southeastward through the evening. DISCUSSION...Downstream of ongoing long-lived severe storms, the environment remains favorable into parts of the OK and northern TX Panhandles into northern OK, with moderate to strong instability, favorable deep-layer shear, and elongated mid/upper-level hodographs. An intense storm cluster that earlier moved through Dodge City (where wind gusts of 70-85 mph were observed) has moved into northwest OK and the eastern OK Panhandle. This cluster has a relatively strong cold pool and still appears capable of producing severe gusts as it moves south-southeastward. Strong updrafts along the western flank of this cluster will also be capable of producing large hail. Longevity of the severe threat with this cluster is somewhat uncertain, given increasing CINH with time, though a seasonably strong mid/upper-level jet may help to sustain the cluster through late evening, with at least an isolated severe threat. Farther west, a long-lived supercell has moved into the western OK Panhandle. The longevity of this cell may be relatively limited, given a recent weakening trend and increasing downstream CINH. However, large hail and locally gusty winds will remain possible for as long as this cell persists. ..Dean.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 36950234 36720029 36919915 36809854 36089832 35389854 35179939 35590027 35950116 36280209 36950234 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 570 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 040055Z - 040800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 755 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma and the Oklahoma Panhandle The Texas Panhandle * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 755 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A long-lived supercell across far southwest Kansas will continue to pose a threat for large to very large hail as it moves southward into parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. An intense thunderstorm cluster will also spread southward this evening and overnight from southwest Kansas into parts of western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Severe/damaging winds appear likely with this cluster, and peak gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Guymon OK to 55 miles south southeast of Alva OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 569... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 35030. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more