Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Tuesday. ...Dakotas... A prominent shortwave trough now over northern CA/southern OR will track northeastward and top the upper ridge on Tuesday. An associated cold front will sag southeastward across MT and into western ND by afternoon, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Models are in general agreement that rapid destabilization will occur in the wake of morning clouds/precip, with MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg across a broad region of the Dakotas and northern NE. The storms that form along the front will likely become supercellular with a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Activity is expected to organize upscale by early evening, tracking across the Dakotas and northern NE with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Tuesday. ...Dakotas... A prominent shortwave trough now over northern CA/southern OR will track northeastward and top the upper ridge on Tuesday. An associated cold front will sag southeastward across MT and into western ND by afternoon, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Models are in general agreement that rapid destabilization will occur in the wake of morning clouds/precip, with MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg across a broad region of the Dakotas and northern NE. The storms that form along the front will likely become supercellular with a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Activity is expected to organize upscale by early evening, tracking across the Dakotas and northern NE with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Tuesday. ...Dakotas... A prominent shortwave trough now over northern CA/southern OR will track northeastward and top the upper ridge on Tuesday. An associated cold front will sag southeastward across MT and into western ND by afternoon, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Models are in general agreement that rapid destabilization will occur in the wake of morning clouds/precip, with MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg across a broad region of the Dakotas and northern NE. The storms that form along the front will likely become supercellular with a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Activity is expected to organize upscale by early evening, tracking across the Dakotas and northern NE with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Tuesday. ...Dakotas... A prominent shortwave trough now over northern CA/southern OR will track northeastward and top the upper ridge on Tuesday. An associated cold front will sag southeastward across MT and into western ND by afternoon, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Models are in general agreement that rapid destabilization will occur in the wake of morning clouds/precip, with MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg across a broad region of the Dakotas and northern NE. The storms that form along the front will likely become supercellular with a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Activity is expected to organize upscale by early evening, tracking across the Dakotas and northern NE with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Tuesday. ...Dakotas... A prominent shortwave trough now over northern CA/southern OR will track northeastward and top the upper ridge on Tuesday. An associated cold front will sag southeastward across MT and into western ND by afternoon, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Models are in general agreement that rapid destabilization will occur in the wake of morning clouds/precip, with MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg across a broad region of the Dakotas and northern NE. The storms that form along the front will likely become supercellular with a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Activity is expected to organize upscale by early evening, tracking across the Dakotas and northern NE with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more