Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough and an associated speed max is forecast to move into the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the northern Plains, where surface dewpoints are likely to be in the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop. Along the northwestern edge of this unstable airmass, thunderstorms should form in parts of central and eastern North Dakota. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southward into South Dakota during the evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the speed max will be favorable for a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. On Saturday, the mid-level trough and associated cold front are forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and near the front during the morning, with additional thunderstorm development taking place further southeast in the afternoon. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible. There is some uncertainty as to how much the airmass will be negatively affected by the morning convection. Also, model forecasts suggest that the greatest convective potential will be during the overnight period on Saturday. For this reason, will not add a threat area for Saturday at this time. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., being positioned from the northern Plains to the central Rockies by afternoon. A moderately unstable airmass is forecast further to the east, from the upper Mississippi Valley southward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will be possible Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis. However, the mid-level trough is forecast to remain well to the west of the instability axis, which should limit large-scale ascent over the unstable airmass, helping to keep any severe threat isolated. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, and into the western Great Lakes on Tuesday. Further southwest, a mid-level low is forecast across the central Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday afternoon, along the northern edge of a moist airmass from the central Plains northeastward to the Great Lakes. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will be relatively weak. Although convective coverage and any associated severe threat will likely remain isolated, a few marginally severe storms could occur in areas that heat up the most. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough and an associated speed max is forecast to move into the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the northern Plains, where surface dewpoints are likely to be in the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop. Along the northwestern edge of this unstable airmass, thunderstorms should form in parts of central and eastern North Dakota. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southward into South Dakota during the evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the speed max will be favorable for a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. On Saturday, the mid-level trough and associated cold front are forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and near the front during the morning, with additional thunderstorm development taking place further southeast in the afternoon. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible. There is some uncertainty as to how much the airmass will be negatively affected by the morning convection. Also, model forecasts suggest that the greatest convective potential will be during the overnight period on Saturday. For this reason, will not add a threat area for Saturday at this time. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., being positioned from the northern Plains to the central Rockies by afternoon. A moderately unstable airmass is forecast further to the east, from the upper Mississippi Valley southward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will be possible Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis. However, the mid-level trough is forecast to remain well to the west of the instability axis, which should limit large-scale ascent over the unstable airmass, helping to keep any severe threat isolated. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, and into the western Great Lakes on Tuesday. Further southwest, a mid-level low is forecast across the central Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday afternoon, along the northern edge of a moist airmass from the central Plains northeastward to the Great Lakes. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will be relatively weak. Although convective coverage and any associated severe threat will likely remain isolated, a few marginally severe storms could occur in areas that heat up the most. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough and an associated speed max is forecast to move into the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the northern Plains, where surface dewpoints are likely to be in the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop. Along the northwestern edge of this unstable airmass, thunderstorms should form in parts of central and eastern North Dakota. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southward into South Dakota during the evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the speed max will be favorable for a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. On Saturday, the mid-level trough and associated cold front are forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and near the front during the morning, with additional thunderstorm development taking place further southeast in the afternoon. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible. There is some uncertainty as to how much the airmass will be negatively affected by the morning convection. Also, model forecasts suggest that the greatest convective potential will be during the overnight period on Saturday. For this reason, will not add a threat area for Saturday at this time. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., being positioned from the northern Plains to the central Rockies by afternoon. A moderately unstable airmass is forecast further to the east, from the upper Mississippi Valley southward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will be possible Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis. However, the mid-level trough is forecast to remain well to the west of the instability axis, which should limit large-scale ascent over the unstable airmass, helping to keep any severe threat isolated. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, and into the western Great Lakes on Tuesday. Further southwest, a mid-level low is forecast across the central Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday afternoon, along the northern edge of a moist airmass from the central Plains northeastward to the Great Lakes. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will be relatively weak. Although convective coverage and any associated severe threat will likely remain isolated, a few marginally severe storms could occur in areas that heat up the most. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough and an associated speed max is forecast to move into the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the northern Plains, where surface dewpoints are likely to be in the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop. Along the northwestern edge of this unstable airmass, thunderstorms should form in parts of central and eastern North Dakota. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southward into South Dakota during the evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the speed max will be favorable for a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. On Saturday, the mid-level trough and associated cold front are forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and near the front during the morning, with additional thunderstorm development taking place further southeast in the afternoon. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible. There is some uncertainty as to how much the airmass will be negatively affected by the morning convection. Also, model forecasts suggest that the greatest convective potential will be during the overnight period on Saturday. For this reason, will not add a threat area for Saturday at this time. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., being positioned from the northern Plains to the central Rockies by afternoon. A moderately unstable airmass is forecast further to the east, from the upper Mississippi Valley southward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will be possible Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis. However, the mid-level trough is forecast to remain well to the west of the instability axis, which should limit large-scale ascent over the unstable airmass, helping to keep any severe threat isolated. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, and into the western Great Lakes on Tuesday. Further southwest, a mid-level low is forecast across the central Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday afternoon, along the northern edge of a moist airmass from the central Plains northeastward to the Great Lakes. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will be relatively weak. Although convective coverage and any associated severe threat will likely remain isolated, a few marginally severe storms could occur in areas that heat up the most. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough and an associated speed max is forecast to move into the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the northern Plains, where surface dewpoints are likely to be in the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop. Along the northwestern edge of this unstable airmass, thunderstorms should form in parts of central and eastern North Dakota. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southward into South Dakota during the evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the speed max will be favorable for a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. On Saturday, the mid-level trough and associated cold front are forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and near the front during the morning, with additional thunderstorm development taking place further southeast in the afternoon. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible. There is some uncertainty as to how much the airmass will be negatively affected by the morning convection. Also, model forecasts suggest that the greatest convective potential will be during the overnight period on Saturday. For this reason, will not add a threat area for Saturday at this time. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., being positioned from the northern Plains to the central Rockies by afternoon. A moderately unstable airmass is forecast further to the east, from the upper Mississippi Valley southward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will be possible Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis. However, the mid-level trough is forecast to remain well to the west of the instability axis, which should limit large-scale ascent over the unstable airmass, helping to keep any severe threat isolated. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, and into the western Great Lakes on Tuesday. Further southwest, a mid-level low is forecast across the central Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday afternoon, along the northern edge of a moist airmass from the central Plains northeastward to the Great Lakes. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will be relatively weak. Although convective coverage and any associated severe threat will likely remain isolated, a few marginally severe storms could occur in areas that heat up the most. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough and an associated speed max is forecast to move into the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the northern Plains, where surface dewpoints are likely to be in the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop. Along the northwestern edge of this unstable airmass, thunderstorms should form in parts of central and eastern North Dakota. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southward into South Dakota during the evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the speed max will be favorable for a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. On Saturday, the mid-level trough and associated cold front are forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and near the front during the morning, with additional thunderstorm development taking place further southeast in the afternoon. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible. There is some uncertainty as to how much the airmass will be negatively affected by the morning convection. Also, model forecasts suggest that the greatest convective potential will be during the overnight period on Saturday. For this reason, will not add a threat area for Saturday at this time. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., being positioned from the northern Plains to the central Rockies by afternoon. A moderately unstable airmass is forecast further to the east, from the upper Mississippi Valley southward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will be possible Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis. However, the mid-level trough is forecast to remain well to the west of the instability axis, which should limit large-scale ascent over the unstable airmass, helping to keep any severe threat isolated. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, and into the western Great Lakes on Tuesday. Further southwest, a mid-level low is forecast across the central Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday afternoon, along the northern edge of a moist airmass from the central Plains northeastward to the Great Lakes. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will be relatively weak. Although convective coverage and any associated severe threat will likely remain isolated, a few marginally severe storms could occur in areas that heat up the most. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough and an associated speed max is forecast to move into the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the northern Plains, where surface dewpoints are likely to be in the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop. Along the northwestern edge of this unstable airmass, thunderstorms should form in parts of central and eastern North Dakota. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southward into South Dakota during the evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the speed max will be favorable for a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. On Saturday, the mid-level trough and associated cold front are forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and near the front during the morning, with additional thunderstorm development taking place further southeast in the afternoon. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible. There is some uncertainty as to how much the airmass will be negatively affected by the morning convection. Also, model forecasts suggest that the greatest convective potential will be during the overnight period on Saturday. For this reason, will not add a threat area for Saturday at this time. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., being positioned from the northern Plains to the central Rockies by afternoon. A moderately unstable airmass is forecast further to the east, from the upper Mississippi Valley southward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will be possible Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis. However, the mid-level trough is forecast to remain well to the west of the instability axis, which should limit large-scale ascent over the unstable airmass, helping to keep any severe threat isolated. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, and into the western Great Lakes on Tuesday. Further southwest, a mid-level low is forecast across the central Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday afternoon, along the northern edge of a moist airmass from the central Plains northeastward to the Great Lakes. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will be relatively weak. Although convective coverage and any associated severe threat will likely remain isolated, a few marginally severe storms could occur in areas that heat up the most. Read more

MD 1889 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1889 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...far southeast Montana...far northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 050758Z - 050930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible early this morning across portions of southeast Montana, northeast Wyoming, and western South Dakota. DISCUSSION...The low-level jet has strengthened significantly over the past hour across western South Dakota (now approaching 40 knots on the KUDX VWP). As a result, elevated thunderstorms have increased in coverage across western South Dakota and far southeast Montana. An environment featuring 30 to 40 knots of deep layer shear, 2000 to 2500 J/kg MUCAPE, and support from the low-level jet may result in a few elevated supercells capable of primarily large hail early this morning. In addition, a mature MCS has developed across southeast Montana. As this MCS advances east, at least some severe wind potential could exist if a more consolidated/faster moving segment can emerge from this MCS. At this time, the stronger storm in Powder River, Montana would likely have the greatest potential for this solution as it moves east-southeast along the instability gradient early this morning. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 44850523 45120566 45320572 45520561 45690440 45650320 45280185 44810143 44080122 43310115 43000191 43020270 43150354 44010408 44590467 44850523 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more