Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the western Dakotas, where the western edge of the low-level jet overlaps the eastern edge of the steep mid-level lapse rates. These storms will likely continue northeastward this morning, perhaps even expanding in coverage, as the low-level jet persists and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough strengthens. Occasionally strong updrafts could produce hail and a damaging gust or two. Cloud cover and outflow associated with these storms could result in an effective warm front extending from a weak low over western SD eastward across central and eastern SD. The exact location and sharpness of this front remain uncertain. Given that the shortwave trough will likely remain well west of the region, low-level convergence near this boundary as well as the surface low should both be areas where convective initiation is most likely this afternoon. Ample buoyancy and vertical shear will be in place for supercells with the initial development, with large hail and damaging gusts as the primary risks. Stronger low to mid-level flow may be in place across eastern SD, contributing to greater low-level shear and relatively higher tornado potential. Primary concern across eastern SD is whether or not the warmer low to mid-level temperatures inhibit the development of mature updrafts. One other scenario that seems plausible is for storms on southern periphery the ongoing cluster to become increasingly surface based as they move eastward/northeastward with time. Given current trends and recent guidance, this would most likely occur along the eastern ND/SD border after 20Z. As previously mentioned, hail is possible within this cluster throughout the day, but the transition to a more surface-based character could introduce the threat for stronger gusts as well. A strengthening low-level jet coupled with persistent mid-level westerlies support the potential for upscale growth in a east-southeastward progressing MCS. Damaging gusts will be possible with this MCS, particularly over SD, but increasing low-level stability should result in a gradually diminishing severe potential with eastward/southeastward extend into northeast NE, northwest IA, and southwest MN. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the western Dakotas, where the western edge of the low-level jet overlaps the eastern edge of the steep mid-level lapse rates. These storms will likely continue northeastward this morning, perhaps even expanding in coverage, as the low-level jet persists and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough strengthens. Occasionally strong updrafts could produce hail and a damaging gust or two. Cloud cover and outflow associated with these storms could result in an effective warm front extending from a weak low over western SD eastward across central and eastern SD. The exact location and sharpness of this front remain uncertain. Given that the shortwave trough will likely remain well west of the region, low-level convergence near this boundary as well as the surface low should both be areas where convective initiation is most likely this afternoon. Ample buoyancy and vertical shear will be in place for supercells with the initial development, with large hail and damaging gusts as the primary risks. Stronger low to mid-level flow may be in place across eastern SD, contributing to greater low-level shear and relatively higher tornado potential. Primary concern across eastern SD is whether or not the warmer low to mid-level temperatures inhibit the development of mature updrafts. One other scenario that seems plausible is for storms on southern periphery the ongoing cluster to become increasingly surface based as they move eastward/northeastward with time. Given current trends and recent guidance, this would most likely occur along the eastern ND/SD border after 20Z. As previously mentioned, hail is possible within this cluster throughout the day, but the transition to a more surface-based character could introduce the threat for stronger gusts as well. A strengthening low-level jet coupled with persistent mid-level westerlies support the potential for upscale growth in a east-southeastward progressing MCS. Damaging gusts will be possible with this MCS, particularly over SD, but increasing low-level stability should result in a gradually diminishing severe potential with eastward/southeastward extend into northeast NE, northwest IA, and southwest MN. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the western Dakotas, where the western edge of the low-level jet overlaps the eastern edge of the steep mid-level lapse rates. These storms will likely continue northeastward this morning, perhaps even expanding in coverage, as the low-level jet persists and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough strengthens. Occasionally strong updrafts could produce hail and a damaging gust or two. Cloud cover and outflow associated with these storms could result in an effective warm front extending from a weak low over western SD eastward across central and eastern SD. The exact location and sharpness of this front remain uncertain. Given that the shortwave trough will likely remain well west of the region, low-level convergence near this boundary as well as the surface low should both be areas where convective initiation is most likely this afternoon. Ample buoyancy and vertical shear will be in place for supercells with the initial development, with large hail and damaging gusts as the primary risks. Stronger low to mid-level flow may be in place across eastern SD, contributing to greater low-level shear and relatively higher tornado potential. Primary concern across eastern SD is whether or not the warmer low to mid-level temperatures inhibit the development of mature updrafts. One other scenario that seems plausible is for storms on southern periphery the ongoing cluster to become increasingly surface based as they move eastward/northeastward with time. Given current trends and recent guidance, this would most likely occur along the eastern ND/SD border after 20Z. As previously mentioned, hail is possible within this cluster throughout the day, but the transition to a more surface-based character could introduce the threat for stronger gusts as well. A strengthening low-level jet coupled with persistent mid-level westerlies support the potential for upscale growth in a east-southeastward progressing MCS. Damaging gusts will be possible with this MCS, particularly over SD, but increasing low-level stability should result in a gradually diminishing severe potential with eastward/southeastward extend into northeast NE, northwest IA, and southwest MN. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the western Dakotas, where the western edge of the low-level jet overlaps the eastern edge of the steep mid-level lapse rates. These storms will likely continue northeastward this morning, perhaps even expanding in coverage, as the low-level jet persists and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough strengthens. Occasionally strong updrafts could produce hail and a damaging gust or two. Cloud cover and outflow associated with these storms could result in an effective warm front extending from a weak low over western SD eastward across central and eastern SD. The exact location and sharpness of this front remain uncertain. Given that the shortwave trough will likely remain well west of the region, low-level convergence near this boundary as well as the surface low should both be areas where convective initiation is most likely this afternoon. Ample buoyancy and vertical shear will be in place for supercells with the initial development, with large hail and damaging gusts as the primary risks. Stronger low to mid-level flow may be in place across eastern SD, contributing to greater low-level shear and relatively higher tornado potential. Primary concern across eastern SD is whether or not the warmer low to mid-level temperatures inhibit the development of mature updrafts. One other scenario that seems plausible is for storms on southern periphery the ongoing cluster to become increasingly surface based as they move eastward/northeastward with time. Given current trends and recent guidance, this would most likely occur along the eastern ND/SD border after 20Z. As previously mentioned, hail is possible within this cluster throughout the day, but the transition to a more surface-based character could introduce the threat for stronger gusts as well. A strengthening low-level jet coupled with persistent mid-level westerlies support the potential for upscale growth in a east-southeastward progressing MCS. Damaging gusts will be possible with this MCS, particularly over SD, but increasing low-level stability should result in a gradually diminishing severe potential with eastward/southeastward extend into northeast NE, northwest IA, and southwest MN. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the western Dakotas, where the western edge of the low-level jet overlaps the eastern edge of the steep mid-level lapse rates. These storms will likely continue northeastward this morning, perhaps even expanding in coverage, as the low-level jet persists and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough strengthens. Occasionally strong updrafts could produce hail and a damaging gust or two. Cloud cover and outflow associated with these storms could result in an effective warm front extending from a weak low over western SD eastward across central and eastern SD. The exact location and sharpness of this front remain uncertain. Given that the shortwave trough will likely remain well west of the region, low-level convergence near this boundary as well as the surface low should both be areas where convective initiation is most likely this afternoon. Ample buoyancy and vertical shear will be in place for supercells with the initial development, with large hail and damaging gusts as the primary risks. Stronger low to mid-level flow may be in place across eastern SD, contributing to greater low-level shear and relatively higher tornado potential. Primary concern across eastern SD is whether or not the warmer low to mid-level temperatures inhibit the development of mature updrafts. One other scenario that seems plausible is for storms on southern periphery the ongoing cluster to become increasingly surface based as they move eastward/northeastward with time. Given current trends and recent guidance, this would most likely occur along the eastern ND/SD border after 20Z. As previously mentioned, hail is possible within this cluster throughout the day, but the transition to a more surface-based character could introduce the threat for stronger gusts as well. A strengthening low-level jet coupled with persistent mid-level westerlies support the potential for upscale growth in a east-southeastward progressing MCS. Damaging gusts will be possible with this MCS, particularly over SD, but increasing low-level stability should result in a gradually diminishing severe potential with eastward/southeastward extend into northeast NE, northwest IA, and southwest MN. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/05/2025 Read more