Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more