Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights into eastern Utah. Here, sparse thunderstorm development is possible. However, fuels are quite receptive to fire spread, so any lightning strikes that manage to occur will have high ignition potential. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with no other changes made. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights into eastern Utah. Here, sparse thunderstorm development is possible. However, fuels are quite receptive to fire spread, so any lightning strikes that manage to occur will have high ignition potential. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with no other changes made. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights into eastern Utah. Here, sparse thunderstorm development is possible. However, fuels are quite receptive to fire spread, so any lightning strikes that manage to occur will have high ignition potential. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with no other changes made. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights into eastern Utah. Here, sparse thunderstorm development is possible. However, fuels are quite receptive to fire spread, so any lightning strikes that manage to occur will have high ignition potential. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with no other changes made. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights into eastern Utah. Here, sparse thunderstorm development is possible. However, fuels are quite receptive to fire spread, so any lightning strikes that manage to occur will have high ignition potential. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with no other changes made. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the North-Central States on Wednesday into Wednesday night. ...North-Central States... Low probability severe potential remains evident across the region with multiple scenarios anticipated amid fairly nebulous large-scale ascent. Initial threat should be in the southeastern lobe across the Lower MO Valley vicinity with potential for an ongoing MCS. As discussed in the SWODY1, considerable uncertainty exists overnight with evolution of such an MCS but the overall signal is for a weakening trend after 12Z. A distinct minority of guidance indicates some potential for diurnal intensification with a remnant MCV. Sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damage seems plausible in the morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Conditionally, the most favorable environment for severe should be across the Black Hills vicinity and the NE Panhandle as convective outflow from late D1 is pushed south into the central High Plains. North of this outflow, a moderately supportive supercell environment should exist. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop late afternoon to early evening. But low-amplitude ridging between a shortwave trough in the southern Canadian Prairies and a minor trough in the Northwest should modulate overall coverage. Isolated large hail and severe gusts should be anticipated into late evening. Downstream low-level warm theta-e advection should be centered over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valleys on Wednesday night where a few marginally severe storms are possible. A few strong storms may also occur across northern MN during the afternoon, owing to trailing influence of the southern Canadian Prairies wave. Scattered storm coverage should be confined along the international border, but modest mid-level lapse rates should temper convective vigor. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the North-Central States on Wednesday into Wednesday night. ...North-Central States... Low probability severe potential remains evident across the region with multiple scenarios anticipated amid fairly nebulous large-scale ascent. Initial threat should be in the southeastern lobe across the Lower MO Valley vicinity with potential for an ongoing MCS. As discussed in the SWODY1, considerable uncertainty exists overnight with evolution of such an MCS but the overall signal is for a weakening trend after 12Z. A distinct minority of guidance indicates some potential for diurnal intensification with a remnant MCV. Sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damage seems plausible in the morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Conditionally, the most favorable environment for severe should be across the Black Hills vicinity and the NE Panhandle as convective outflow from late D1 is pushed south into the central High Plains. North of this outflow, a moderately supportive supercell environment should exist. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop late afternoon to early evening. But low-amplitude ridging between a shortwave trough in the southern Canadian Prairies and a minor trough in the Northwest should modulate overall coverage. Isolated large hail and severe gusts should be anticipated into late evening. Downstream low-level warm theta-e advection should be centered over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valleys on Wednesday night where a few marginally severe storms are possible. A few strong storms may also occur across northern MN during the afternoon, owing to trailing influence of the southern Canadian Prairies wave. Scattered storm coverage should be confined along the international border, but modest mid-level lapse rates should temper convective vigor. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the North-Central States on Wednesday into Wednesday night. ...North-Central States... Low probability severe potential remains evident across the region with multiple scenarios anticipated amid fairly nebulous large-scale ascent. Initial threat should be in the southeastern lobe across the Lower MO Valley vicinity with potential for an ongoing MCS. As discussed in the SWODY1, considerable uncertainty exists overnight with evolution of such an MCS but the overall signal is for a weakening trend after 12Z. A distinct minority of guidance indicates some potential for diurnal intensification with a remnant MCV. Sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damage seems plausible in the morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Conditionally, the most favorable environment for severe should be across the Black Hills vicinity and the NE Panhandle as convective outflow from late D1 is pushed south into the central High Plains. North of this outflow, a moderately supportive supercell environment should exist. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop late afternoon to early evening. But low-amplitude ridging between a shortwave trough in the southern Canadian Prairies and a minor trough in the Northwest should modulate overall coverage. Isolated large hail and severe gusts should be anticipated into late evening. Downstream low-level warm theta-e advection should be centered over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valleys on Wednesday night where a few marginally severe storms are possible. A few strong storms may also occur across northern MN during the afternoon, owing to trailing influence of the southern Canadian Prairies wave. Scattered storm coverage should be confined along the international border, but modest mid-level lapse rates should temper convective vigor. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the North-Central States on Wednesday into Wednesday night. ...North-Central States... Low probability severe potential remains evident across the region with multiple scenarios anticipated amid fairly nebulous large-scale ascent. Initial threat should be in the southeastern lobe across the Lower MO Valley vicinity with potential for an ongoing MCS. As discussed in the SWODY1, considerable uncertainty exists overnight with evolution of such an MCS but the overall signal is for a weakening trend after 12Z. A distinct minority of guidance indicates some potential for diurnal intensification with a remnant MCV. Sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damage seems plausible in the morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Conditionally, the most favorable environment for severe should be across the Black Hills vicinity and the NE Panhandle as convective outflow from late D1 is pushed south into the central High Plains. North of this outflow, a moderately supportive supercell environment should exist. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop late afternoon to early evening. But low-amplitude ridging between a shortwave trough in the southern Canadian Prairies and a minor trough in the Northwest should modulate overall coverage. Isolated large hail and severe gusts should be anticipated into late evening. Downstream low-level warm theta-e advection should be centered over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valleys on Wednesday night where a few marginally severe storms are possible. A few strong storms may also occur across northern MN during the afternoon, owing to trailing influence of the southern Canadian Prairies wave. Scattered storm coverage should be confined along the international border, but modest mid-level lapse rates should temper convective vigor. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the North-Central States on Wednesday into Wednesday night. ...North-Central States... Low probability severe potential remains evident across the region with multiple scenarios anticipated amid fairly nebulous large-scale ascent. Initial threat should be in the southeastern lobe across the Lower MO Valley vicinity with potential for an ongoing MCS. As discussed in the SWODY1, considerable uncertainty exists overnight with evolution of such an MCS but the overall signal is for a weakening trend after 12Z. A distinct minority of guidance indicates some potential for diurnal intensification with a remnant MCV. Sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damage seems plausible in the morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Conditionally, the most favorable environment for severe should be across the Black Hills vicinity and the NE Panhandle as convective outflow from late D1 is pushed south into the central High Plains. North of this outflow, a moderately supportive supercell environment should exist. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop late afternoon to early evening. But low-amplitude ridging between a shortwave trough in the southern Canadian Prairies and a minor trough in the Northwest should modulate overall coverage. Isolated large hail and severe gusts should be anticipated into late evening. Downstream low-level warm theta-e advection should be centered over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valleys on Wednesday night where a few marginally severe storms are possible. A few strong storms may also occur across northern MN during the afternoon, owing to trailing influence of the southern Canadian Prairies wave. Scattered storm coverage should be confined along the international border, but modest mid-level lapse rates should temper convective vigor. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the North-Central States on Wednesday into Wednesday night. ...North-Central States... Low probability severe potential remains evident across the region with multiple scenarios anticipated amid fairly nebulous large-scale ascent. Initial threat should be in the southeastern lobe across the Lower MO Valley vicinity with potential for an ongoing MCS. As discussed in the SWODY1, considerable uncertainty exists overnight with evolution of such an MCS but the overall signal is for a weakening trend after 12Z. A distinct minority of guidance indicates some potential for diurnal intensification with a remnant MCV. Sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damage seems plausible in the morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Conditionally, the most favorable environment for severe should be across the Black Hills vicinity and the NE Panhandle as convective outflow from late D1 is pushed south into the central High Plains. North of this outflow, a moderately supportive supercell environment should exist. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop late afternoon to early evening. But low-amplitude ridging between a shortwave trough in the southern Canadian Prairies and a minor trough in the Northwest should modulate overall coverage. Isolated large hail and severe gusts should be anticipated into late evening. Downstream low-level warm theta-e advection should be centered over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valleys on Wednesday night where a few marginally severe storms are possible. A few strong storms may also occur across northern MN during the afternoon, owing to trailing influence of the southern Canadian Prairies wave. Scattered storm coverage should be confined along the international border, but modest mid-level lapse rates should temper convective vigor. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the North-Central States on Wednesday into Wednesday night. ...North-Central States... Low probability severe potential remains evident across the region with multiple scenarios anticipated amid fairly nebulous large-scale ascent. Initial threat should be in the southeastern lobe across the Lower MO Valley vicinity with potential for an ongoing MCS. As discussed in the SWODY1, considerable uncertainty exists overnight with evolution of such an MCS but the overall signal is for a weakening trend after 12Z. A distinct minority of guidance indicates some potential for diurnal intensification with a remnant MCV. Sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damage seems plausible in the morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Conditionally, the most favorable environment for severe should be across the Black Hills vicinity and the NE Panhandle as convective outflow from late D1 is pushed south into the central High Plains. North of this outflow, a moderately supportive supercell environment should exist. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop late afternoon to early evening. But low-amplitude ridging between a shortwave trough in the southern Canadian Prairies and a minor trough in the Northwest should modulate overall coverage. Isolated large hail and severe gusts should be anticipated into late evening. Downstream low-level warm theta-e advection should be centered over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valleys on Wednesday night where a few marginally severe storms are possible. A few strong storms may also occur across northern MN during the afternoon, owing to trailing influence of the southern Canadian Prairies wave. Scattered storm coverage should be confined along the international border, but modest mid-level lapse rates should temper convective vigor. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the North-Central States on Wednesday into Wednesday night. ...North-Central States... Low probability severe potential remains evident across the region with multiple scenarios anticipated amid fairly nebulous large-scale ascent. Initial threat should be in the southeastern lobe across the Lower MO Valley vicinity with potential for an ongoing MCS. As discussed in the SWODY1, considerable uncertainty exists overnight with evolution of such an MCS but the overall signal is for a weakening trend after 12Z. A distinct minority of guidance indicates some potential for diurnal intensification with a remnant MCV. Sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damage seems plausible in the morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Conditionally, the most favorable environment for severe should be across the Black Hills vicinity and the NE Panhandle as convective outflow from late D1 is pushed south into the central High Plains. North of this outflow, a moderately supportive supercell environment should exist. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop late afternoon to early evening. But low-amplitude ridging between a shortwave trough in the southern Canadian Prairies and a minor trough in the Northwest should modulate overall coverage. Isolated large hail and severe gusts should be anticipated into late evening. Downstream low-level warm theta-e advection should be centered over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valleys on Wednesday night where a few marginally severe storms are possible. A few strong storms may also occur across northern MN during the afternoon, owing to trailing influence of the southern Canadian Prairies wave. Scattered storm coverage should be confined along the international border, but modest mid-level lapse rates should temper convective vigor. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the North-Central States on Wednesday into Wednesday night. ...North-Central States... Low probability severe potential remains evident across the region with multiple scenarios anticipated amid fairly nebulous large-scale ascent. Initial threat should be in the southeastern lobe across the Lower MO Valley vicinity with potential for an ongoing MCS. As discussed in the SWODY1, considerable uncertainty exists overnight with evolution of such an MCS but the overall signal is for a weakening trend after 12Z. A distinct minority of guidance indicates some potential for diurnal intensification with a remnant MCV. Sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damage seems plausible in the morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Conditionally, the most favorable environment for severe should be across the Black Hills vicinity and the NE Panhandle as convective outflow from late D1 is pushed south into the central High Plains. North of this outflow, a moderately supportive supercell environment should exist. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop late afternoon to early evening. But low-amplitude ridging between a shortwave trough in the southern Canadian Prairies and a minor trough in the Northwest should modulate overall coverage. Isolated large hail and severe gusts should be anticipated into late evening. Downstream low-level warm theta-e advection should be centered over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valleys on Wednesday night where a few marginally severe storms are possible. A few strong storms may also occur across northern MN during the afternoon, owing to trailing influence of the southern Canadian Prairies wave. Scattered storm coverage should be confined along the international border, but modest mid-level lapse rates should temper convective vigor. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the North-Central States on Wednesday into Wednesday night. ...North-Central States... Low probability severe potential remains evident across the region with multiple scenarios anticipated amid fairly nebulous large-scale ascent. Initial threat should be in the southeastern lobe across the Lower MO Valley vicinity with potential for an ongoing MCS. As discussed in the SWODY1, considerable uncertainty exists overnight with evolution of such an MCS but the overall signal is for a weakening trend after 12Z. A distinct minority of guidance indicates some potential for diurnal intensification with a remnant MCV. Sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damage seems plausible in the morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Conditionally, the most favorable environment for severe should be across the Black Hills vicinity and the NE Panhandle as convective outflow from late D1 is pushed south into the central High Plains. North of this outflow, a moderately supportive supercell environment should exist. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop late afternoon to early evening. But low-amplitude ridging between a shortwave trough in the southern Canadian Prairies and a minor trough in the Northwest should modulate overall coverage. Isolated large hail and severe gusts should be anticipated into late evening. Downstream low-level warm theta-e advection should be centered over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valleys on Wednesday night where a few marginally severe storms are possible. A few strong storms may also occur across northern MN during the afternoon, owing to trailing influence of the southern Canadian Prairies wave. Scattered storm coverage should be confined along the international border, but modest mid-level lapse rates should temper convective vigor. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the North-Central States on Wednesday into Wednesday night. ...North-Central States... Low probability severe potential remains evident across the region with multiple scenarios anticipated amid fairly nebulous large-scale ascent. Initial threat should be in the southeastern lobe across the Lower MO Valley vicinity with potential for an ongoing MCS. As discussed in the SWODY1, considerable uncertainty exists overnight with evolution of such an MCS but the overall signal is for a weakening trend after 12Z. A distinct minority of guidance indicates some potential for diurnal intensification with a remnant MCV. Sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damage seems plausible in the morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Conditionally, the most favorable environment for severe should be across the Black Hills vicinity and the NE Panhandle as convective outflow from late D1 is pushed south into the central High Plains. North of this outflow, a moderately supportive supercell environment should exist. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop late afternoon to early evening. But low-amplitude ridging between a shortwave trough in the southern Canadian Prairies and a minor trough in the Northwest should modulate overall coverage. Isolated large hail and severe gusts should be anticipated into late evening. Downstream low-level warm theta-e advection should be centered over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valleys on Wednesday night where a few marginally severe storms are possible. A few strong storms may also occur across northern MN during the afternoon, owing to trailing influence of the southern Canadian Prairies wave. Scattered storm coverage should be confined along the international border, but modest mid-level lapse rates should temper convective vigor. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the North-Central States on Wednesday into Wednesday night. ...North-Central States... Low probability severe potential remains evident across the region with multiple scenarios anticipated amid fairly nebulous large-scale ascent. Initial threat should be in the southeastern lobe across the Lower MO Valley vicinity with potential for an ongoing MCS. As discussed in the SWODY1, considerable uncertainty exists overnight with evolution of such an MCS but the overall signal is for a weakening trend after 12Z. A distinct minority of guidance indicates some potential for diurnal intensification with a remnant MCV. Sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damage seems plausible in the morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Conditionally, the most favorable environment for severe should be across the Black Hills vicinity and the NE Panhandle as convective outflow from late D1 is pushed south into the central High Plains. North of this outflow, a moderately supportive supercell environment should exist. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop late afternoon to early evening. But low-amplitude ridging between a shortwave trough in the southern Canadian Prairies and a minor trough in the Northwest should modulate overall coverage. Isolated large hail and severe gusts should be anticipated into late evening. Downstream low-level warm theta-e advection should be centered over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valleys on Wednesday night where a few marginally severe storms are possible. A few strong storms may also occur across northern MN during the afternoon, owing to trailing influence of the southern Canadian Prairies wave. Scattered storm coverage should be confined along the international border, but modest mid-level lapse rates should temper convective vigor. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more