Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... The previous forecast remains on track, with only slight adjustments made to the ongoing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone remains centered on the Southwest/southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Between the midlevel troughing and expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will remain in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. A diurnally deepening PBL will extent into this enhanced flow aloft, yielding an expansive overlap of around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH. These conditions, combined with highly receptive fuels, will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Boundary-layer mixing beneath a plume of well-established midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies will yield sufficient instability (characterized by inverted-V soundings) for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development -- generally focused along terrain features. PW values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches will promote mostly dry thunderstorms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... The previous forecast remains on track, with only slight adjustments made to the ongoing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone remains centered on the Southwest/southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Between the midlevel troughing and expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will remain in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. A diurnally deepening PBL will extent into this enhanced flow aloft, yielding an expansive overlap of around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH. These conditions, combined with highly receptive fuels, will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Boundary-layer mixing beneath a plume of well-established midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies will yield sufficient instability (characterized by inverted-V soundings) for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development -- generally focused along terrain features. PW values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches will promote mostly dry thunderstorms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... The previous forecast remains on track, with only slight adjustments made to the ongoing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone remains centered on the Southwest/southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Between the midlevel troughing and expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will remain in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. A diurnally deepening PBL will extent into this enhanced flow aloft, yielding an expansive overlap of around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH. These conditions, combined with highly receptive fuels, will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Boundary-layer mixing beneath a plume of well-established midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies will yield sufficient instability (characterized by inverted-V soundings) for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development -- generally focused along terrain features. PW values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches will promote mostly dry thunderstorms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... The previous forecast remains on track, with only slight adjustments made to the ongoing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone remains centered on the Southwest/southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Between the midlevel troughing and expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will remain in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. A diurnally deepening PBL will extent into this enhanced flow aloft, yielding an expansive overlap of around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH. These conditions, combined with highly receptive fuels, will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Boundary-layer mixing beneath a plume of well-established midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies will yield sufficient instability (characterized by inverted-V soundings) for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development -- generally focused along terrain features. PW values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches will promote mostly dry thunderstorms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... The previous forecast remains on track, with only slight adjustments made to the ongoing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone remains centered on the Southwest/southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Between the midlevel troughing and expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will remain in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. A diurnally deepening PBL will extent into this enhanced flow aloft, yielding an expansive overlap of around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH. These conditions, combined with highly receptive fuels, will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Boundary-layer mixing beneath a plume of well-established midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies will yield sufficient instability (characterized by inverted-V soundings) for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development -- generally focused along terrain features. PW values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches will promote mostly dry thunderstorms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... The previous forecast remains on track, with only slight adjustments made to the ongoing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone remains centered on the Southwest/southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Between the midlevel troughing and expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will remain in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. A diurnally deepening PBL will extent into this enhanced flow aloft, yielding an expansive overlap of around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH. These conditions, combined with highly receptive fuels, will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Boundary-layer mixing beneath a plume of well-established midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies will yield sufficient instability (characterized by inverted-V soundings) for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development -- generally focused along terrain features. PW values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches will promote mostly dry thunderstorms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... An MCS continues to push southward across the Mid MO Valley this morning. The current motion, particularly the westward backbuilding of storms into more of east-central NE, have oriented this system favorably to a moist low-level jet, which should support maintenance of this line for the next few hours. Echo tops within this system remain fairly cool and occasionally strong updrafts have persisted for the last several hours. Additionally, a notable rise/fall pressure couplet exists with this system, as sampled by the +4 mb pressure rise as SUX. These factors indicate the MCS remains mature and could still occasionally produce damaging gusts over the next few hours across southeast NE, southwest IA, northwest MO, and far northeast KS. This MCS should begin to weaken later this morning when the low-level jet weakens. The region will be within the mostly zonal flow between the upper ridging centered over NM and a shortwave trough moving through SK and MB. Some rising heights are possible during the second half of the period as the pattern amplifies ahead of a shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate to strong buoyancy. The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear would favor strong to severe thunderstorms, but the satellite imagery lacks any notable disturbances upstream and the large-scale ascent is nebulous. The surface pattern also lacks any well-defined features, with only weak troughing sampled from the central Dakotas to a weak low over northeast CO. As such, when and where convective initiation occurs, if it occurs at all, is uncertain. Convective initiation appears most likely near the Black Hills into western NE within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Environmental conditions support supercells with a conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds. However, given the uncertainty regarding coverage, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). ...Northern MN... A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... An MCS continues to push southward across the Mid MO Valley this morning. The current motion, particularly the westward backbuilding of storms into more of east-central NE, have oriented this system favorably to a moist low-level jet, which should support maintenance of this line for the next few hours. Echo tops within this system remain fairly cool and occasionally strong updrafts have persisted for the last several hours. Additionally, a notable rise/fall pressure couplet exists with this system, as sampled by the +4 mb pressure rise as SUX. These factors indicate the MCS remains mature and could still occasionally produce damaging gusts over the next few hours across southeast NE, southwest IA, northwest MO, and far northeast KS. This MCS should begin to weaken later this morning when the low-level jet weakens. The region will be within the mostly zonal flow between the upper ridging centered over NM and a shortwave trough moving through SK and MB. Some rising heights are possible during the second half of the period as the pattern amplifies ahead of a shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate to strong buoyancy. The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear would favor strong to severe thunderstorms, but the satellite imagery lacks any notable disturbances upstream and the large-scale ascent is nebulous. The surface pattern also lacks any well-defined features, with only weak troughing sampled from the central Dakotas to a weak low over northeast CO. As such, when and where convective initiation occurs, if it occurs at all, is uncertain. Convective initiation appears most likely near the Black Hills into western NE within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Environmental conditions support supercells with a conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds. However, given the uncertainty regarding coverage, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). ...Northern MN... A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... An MCS continues to push southward across the Mid MO Valley this morning. The current motion, particularly the westward backbuilding of storms into more of east-central NE, have oriented this system favorably to a moist low-level jet, which should support maintenance of this line for the next few hours. Echo tops within this system remain fairly cool and occasionally strong updrafts have persisted for the last several hours. Additionally, a notable rise/fall pressure couplet exists with this system, as sampled by the +4 mb pressure rise as SUX. These factors indicate the MCS remains mature and could still occasionally produce damaging gusts over the next few hours across southeast NE, southwest IA, northwest MO, and far northeast KS. This MCS should begin to weaken later this morning when the low-level jet weakens. The region will be within the mostly zonal flow between the upper ridging centered over NM and a shortwave trough moving through SK and MB. Some rising heights are possible during the second half of the period as the pattern amplifies ahead of a shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate to strong buoyancy. The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear would favor strong to severe thunderstorms, but the satellite imagery lacks any notable disturbances upstream and the large-scale ascent is nebulous. The surface pattern also lacks any well-defined features, with only weak troughing sampled from the central Dakotas to a weak low over northeast CO. As such, when and where convective initiation occurs, if it occurs at all, is uncertain. Convective initiation appears most likely near the Black Hills into western NE within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Environmental conditions support supercells with a conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds. However, given the uncertainty regarding coverage, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). ...Northern MN... A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... An MCS continues to push southward across the Mid MO Valley this morning. The current motion, particularly the westward backbuilding of storms into more of east-central NE, have oriented this system favorably to a moist low-level jet, which should support maintenance of this line for the next few hours. Echo tops within this system remain fairly cool and occasionally strong updrafts have persisted for the last several hours. Additionally, a notable rise/fall pressure couplet exists with this system, as sampled by the +4 mb pressure rise as SUX. These factors indicate the MCS remains mature and could still occasionally produce damaging gusts over the next few hours across southeast NE, southwest IA, northwest MO, and far northeast KS. This MCS should begin to weaken later this morning when the low-level jet weakens. The region will be within the mostly zonal flow between the upper ridging centered over NM and a shortwave trough moving through SK and MB. Some rising heights are possible during the second half of the period as the pattern amplifies ahead of a shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate to strong buoyancy. The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear would favor strong to severe thunderstorms, but the satellite imagery lacks any notable disturbances upstream and the large-scale ascent is nebulous. The surface pattern also lacks any well-defined features, with only weak troughing sampled from the central Dakotas to a weak low over northeast CO. As such, when and where convective initiation occurs, if it occurs at all, is uncertain. Convective initiation appears most likely near the Black Hills into western NE within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Environmental conditions support supercells with a conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds. However, given the uncertainty regarding coverage, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). ...Northern MN... A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... An MCS continues to push southward across the Mid MO Valley this morning. The current motion, particularly the westward backbuilding of storms into more of east-central NE, have oriented this system favorably to a moist low-level jet, which should support maintenance of this line for the next few hours. Echo tops within this system remain fairly cool and occasionally strong updrafts have persisted for the last several hours. Additionally, a notable rise/fall pressure couplet exists with this system, as sampled by the +4 mb pressure rise as SUX. These factors indicate the MCS remains mature and could still occasionally produce damaging gusts over the next few hours across southeast NE, southwest IA, northwest MO, and far northeast KS. This MCS should begin to weaken later this morning when the low-level jet weakens. The region will be within the mostly zonal flow between the upper ridging centered over NM and a shortwave trough moving through SK and MB. Some rising heights are possible during the second half of the period as the pattern amplifies ahead of a shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate to strong buoyancy. The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear would favor strong to severe thunderstorms, but the satellite imagery lacks any notable disturbances upstream and the large-scale ascent is nebulous. The surface pattern also lacks any well-defined features, with only weak troughing sampled from the central Dakotas to a weak low over northeast CO. As such, when and where convective initiation occurs, if it occurs at all, is uncertain. Convective initiation appears most likely near the Black Hills into western NE within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Environmental conditions support supercells with a conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds. However, given the uncertainty regarding coverage, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). ...Northern MN... A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/06/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Moderate to strong instability should be in place ahead of the front by afternoon from eastern Nebraska northeastward into Wisconsin. Thunderstorm development is expected to take place along parts of the front from the afternoon into the evening, with the greatest convective coverage over the upper Mississippi Valley. A few storms could be severe, with large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts expected to be the primary threats. On Sunday, another mid-level trough is forecast to move into the central and northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place ahead of the front from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough near an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts suggest the strongest instability will not be co-located with the greatest convective potential. Although a severe threat may develop across parts of the region, this would negatively affect severe threat magnitude. The mid-level trough is forecast to shift eastward across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Isolated severe thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the front near an axis of moderate instability. However, large-scale ascent will be somewhat limited across much of the region, suggesting the convective potential and resulting severe threat should remain isolated. ...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8... From Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to advance eastward from the north-central U.S. into the Northeast. Along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening, strong thunderstorms will be possible. However, the models are forecasting less instability and a more disorganized pattern compared to previous days, suggesting that any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Moderate to strong instability should be in place ahead of the front by afternoon from eastern Nebraska northeastward into Wisconsin. Thunderstorm development is expected to take place along parts of the front from the afternoon into the evening, with the greatest convective coverage over the upper Mississippi Valley. A few storms could be severe, with large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts expected to be the primary threats. On Sunday, another mid-level trough is forecast to move into the central and northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place ahead of the front from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough near an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts suggest the strongest instability will not be co-located with the greatest convective potential. Although a severe threat may develop across parts of the region, this would negatively affect severe threat magnitude. The mid-level trough is forecast to shift eastward across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Isolated severe thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the front near an axis of moderate instability. However, large-scale ascent will be somewhat limited across much of the region, suggesting the convective potential and resulting severe threat should remain isolated. ...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8... From Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to advance eastward from the north-central U.S. into the Northeast. Along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening, strong thunderstorms will be possible. However, the models are forecasting less instability and a more disorganized pattern compared to previous days, suggesting that any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Moderate to strong instability should be in place ahead of the front by afternoon from eastern Nebraska northeastward into Wisconsin. Thunderstorm development is expected to take place along parts of the front from the afternoon into the evening, with the greatest convective coverage over the upper Mississippi Valley. A few storms could be severe, with large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts expected to be the primary threats. On Sunday, another mid-level trough is forecast to move into the central and northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place ahead of the front from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough near an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts suggest the strongest instability will not be co-located with the greatest convective potential. Although a severe threat may develop across parts of the region, this would negatively affect severe threat magnitude. The mid-level trough is forecast to shift eastward across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Isolated severe thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the front near an axis of moderate instability. However, large-scale ascent will be somewhat limited across much of the region, suggesting the convective potential and resulting severe threat should remain isolated. ...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8... From Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to advance eastward from the north-central U.S. into the Northeast. Along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening, strong thunderstorms will be possible. However, the models are forecasting less instability and a more disorganized pattern compared to previous days, suggesting that any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Moderate to strong instability should be in place ahead of the front by afternoon from eastern Nebraska northeastward into Wisconsin. Thunderstorm development is expected to take place along parts of the front from the afternoon into the evening, with the greatest convective coverage over the upper Mississippi Valley. A few storms could be severe, with large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts expected to be the primary threats. On Sunday, another mid-level trough is forecast to move into the central and northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place ahead of the front from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough near an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts suggest the strongest instability will not be co-located with the greatest convective potential. Although a severe threat may develop across parts of the region, this would negatively affect severe threat magnitude. The mid-level trough is forecast to shift eastward across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Isolated severe thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the front near an axis of moderate instability. However, large-scale ascent will be somewhat limited across much of the region, suggesting the convective potential and resulting severe threat should remain isolated. ...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8... From Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to advance eastward from the north-central U.S. into the Northeast. Along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening, strong thunderstorms will be possible. However, the models are forecasting less instability and a more disorganized pattern compared to previous days, suggesting that any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Moderate to strong instability should be in place ahead of the front by afternoon from eastern Nebraska northeastward into Wisconsin. Thunderstorm development is expected to take place along parts of the front from the afternoon into the evening, with the greatest convective coverage over the upper Mississippi Valley. A few storms could be severe, with large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts expected to be the primary threats. On Sunday, another mid-level trough is forecast to move into the central and northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place ahead of the front from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough near an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts suggest the strongest instability will not be co-located with the greatest convective potential. Although a severe threat may develop across parts of the region, this would negatively affect severe threat magnitude. The mid-level trough is forecast to shift eastward across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Isolated severe thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the front near an axis of moderate instability. However, large-scale ascent will be somewhat limited across much of the region, suggesting the convective potential and resulting severe threat should remain isolated. ...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8... From Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to advance eastward from the north-central U.S. into the Northeast. Along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening, strong thunderstorms will be possible. However, the models are forecasting less instability and a more disorganized pattern compared to previous days, suggesting that any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Moderate to strong instability should be in place ahead of the front by afternoon from eastern Nebraska northeastward into Wisconsin. Thunderstorm development is expected to take place along parts of the front from the afternoon into the evening, with the greatest convective coverage over the upper Mississippi Valley. A few storms could be severe, with large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts expected to be the primary threats. On Sunday, another mid-level trough is forecast to move into the central and northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place ahead of the front from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough near an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts suggest the strongest instability will not be co-located with the greatest convective potential. Although a severe threat may develop across parts of the region, this would negatively affect severe threat magnitude. The mid-level trough is forecast to shift eastward across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Isolated severe thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the front near an axis of moderate instability. However, large-scale ascent will be somewhat limited across much of the region, suggesting the convective potential and resulting severe threat should remain isolated. ...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8... From Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to advance eastward from the north-central U.S. into the Northeast. Along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening, strong thunderstorms will be possible. However, the models are forecasting less instability and a more disorganized pattern compared to previous days, suggesting that any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are likely on Friday across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will progress eastward into the northern High Plains on Friday, as an associated speed max moves over the northern Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the central Plains, as a cold front advances eastward the north-central states. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the central Dakotas eastward to the upper Mississippi Valley. A pronounced axis of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from northeastern South Dakota into far eastern North Dakota. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop along an instability gradient located just ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will move eastward across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota from late afternoon into the evening. At 21Z on Friday, forecast soundings near the axis of instability have an impressive thermodynamic environment. To the west of Fargo, North Dakota, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4500 to 6000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range, suggesting supercells with large hail will be likely. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the stronger cores. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast reach the 200 to 275 m2/s2 range by late afternoon, suggesting that a tornado threat could develop. The potential for severe gusts is expected to increase in the early evening, as a cluster or broken line of strong to severe storms moves eastward across the region. Further south into southeastern South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska, cell coverage is forecast to be more isolated due to a capping inversion that is evident on forecast soundings. In spite of the cap, low-level convergence is forecast to become strong just ahead of the front. This should be enough for convective initiation during the evening. The environment along this part of the front will likely support large hail and severe wind gusts, but the threat should be more isolated with southward extent. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are likely on Friday across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will progress eastward into the northern High Plains on Friday, as an associated speed max moves over the northern Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the central Plains, as a cold front advances eastward the north-central states. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the central Dakotas eastward to the upper Mississippi Valley. A pronounced axis of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from northeastern South Dakota into far eastern North Dakota. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop along an instability gradient located just ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will move eastward across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota from late afternoon into the evening. At 21Z on Friday, forecast soundings near the axis of instability have an impressive thermodynamic environment. To the west of Fargo, North Dakota, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4500 to 6000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range, suggesting supercells with large hail will be likely. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the stronger cores. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast reach the 200 to 275 m2/s2 range by late afternoon, suggesting that a tornado threat could develop. The potential for severe gusts is expected to increase in the early evening, as a cluster or broken line of strong to severe storms moves eastward across the region. Further south into southeastern South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska, cell coverage is forecast to be more isolated due to a capping inversion that is evident on forecast soundings. In spite of the cap, low-level convergence is forecast to become strong just ahead of the front. This should be enough for convective initiation during the evening. The environment along this part of the front will likely support large hail and severe wind gusts, but the threat should be more isolated with southward extent. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are likely on Friday across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will progress eastward into the northern High Plains on Friday, as an associated speed max moves over the northern Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the central Plains, as a cold front advances eastward the north-central states. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the central Dakotas eastward to the upper Mississippi Valley. A pronounced axis of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from northeastern South Dakota into far eastern North Dakota. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop along an instability gradient located just ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will move eastward across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota from late afternoon into the evening. At 21Z on Friday, forecast soundings near the axis of instability have an impressive thermodynamic environment. To the west of Fargo, North Dakota, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4500 to 6000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range, suggesting supercells with large hail will be likely. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the stronger cores. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast reach the 200 to 275 m2/s2 range by late afternoon, suggesting that a tornado threat could develop. The potential for severe gusts is expected to increase in the early evening, as a cluster or broken line of strong to severe storms moves eastward across the region. Further south into southeastern South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska, cell coverage is forecast to be more isolated due to a capping inversion that is evident on forecast soundings. In spite of the cap, low-level convergence is forecast to become strong just ahead of the front. This should be enough for convective initiation during the evening. The environment along this part of the front will likely support large hail and severe wind gusts, but the threat should be more isolated with southward extent. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more