Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... Minor changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area near the Four Corners region to shift the area slightly eastward, based on 12z CAM guidance. Also, the Elevated area was expanded eastward into portions of north-central Colorado where dry/breezy downslope winds are expected amid at least marginally receptive fuels. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderate-strong midlevel westerly flow will be in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between a robust midlevel trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains and midlevel anticyclone over the southern Rockies/High Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Similar to Day 1/Thursday, a diurnally deepening boundary layer will extend well into the moderate-strong westerly flow aloft. This will promote an expansive overlap of single-digit to lower teens RH and 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating/mixing beneath an established midlevel moisture plume from the Southwest into the central Rockies will favor another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon. Associated inverted-V soundings and 0.50 to 0.75 inch PW will support mostly dry storms, capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... Minor changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area near the Four Corners region to shift the area slightly eastward, based on 12z CAM guidance. Also, the Elevated area was expanded eastward into portions of north-central Colorado where dry/breezy downslope winds are expected amid at least marginally receptive fuels. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderate-strong midlevel westerly flow will be in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between a robust midlevel trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains and midlevel anticyclone over the southern Rockies/High Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Similar to Day 1/Thursday, a diurnally deepening boundary layer will extend well into the moderate-strong westerly flow aloft. This will promote an expansive overlap of single-digit to lower teens RH and 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating/mixing beneath an established midlevel moisture plume from the Southwest into the central Rockies will favor another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon. Associated inverted-V soundings and 0.50 to 0.75 inch PW will support mostly dry storms, capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... Minor changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area near the Four Corners region to shift the area slightly eastward, based on 12z CAM guidance. Also, the Elevated area was expanded eastward into portions of north-central Colorado where dry/breezy downslope winds are expected amid at least marginally receptive fuels. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderate-strong midlevel westerly flow will be in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between a robust midlevel trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains and midlevel anticyclone over the southern Rockies/High Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Similar to Day 1/Thursday, a diurnally deepening boundary layer will extend well into the moderate-strong westerly flow aloft. This will promote an expansive overlap of single-digit to lower teens RH and 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating/mixing beneath an established midlevel moisture plume from the Southwest into the central Rockies will favor another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon. Associated inverted-V soundings and 0.50 to 0.75 inch PW will support mostly dry storms, capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... Minor changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area near the Four Corners region to shift the area slightly eastward, based on 12z CAM guidance. Also, the Elevated area was expanded eastward into portions of north-central Colorado where dry/breezy downslope winds are expected amid at least marginally receptive fuels. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderate-strong midlevel westerly flow will be in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between a robust midlevel trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains and midlevel anticyclone over the southern Rockies/High Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Similar to Day 1/Thursday, a diurnally deepening boundary layer will extend well into the moderate-strong westerly flow aloft. This will promote an expansive overlap of single-digit to lower teens RH and 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating/mixing beneath an established midlevel moisture plume from the Southwest into the central Rockies will favor another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon. Associated inverted-V soundings and 0.50 to 0.75 inch PW will support mostly dry storms, capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... Minor changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area near the Four Corners region to shift the area slightly eastward, based on 12z CAM guidance. Also, the Elevated area was expanded eastward into portions of north-central Colorado where dry/breezy downslope winds are expected amid at least marginally receptive fuels. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderate-strong midlevel westerly flow will be in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between a robust midlevel trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains and midlevel anticyclone over the southern Rockies/High Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Similar to Day 1/Thursday, a diurnally deepening boundary layer will extend well into the moderate-strong westerly flow aloft. This will promote an expansive overlap of single-digit to lower teens RH and 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating/mixing beneath an established midlevel moisture plume from the Southwest into the central Rockies will favor another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon. Associated inverted-V soundings and 0.50 to 0.75 inch PW will support mostly dry storms, capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... Minor changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area near the Four Corners region to shift the area slightly eastward, based on 12z CAM guidance. Also, the Elevated area was expanded eastward into portions of north-central Colorado where dry/breezy downslope winds are expected amid at least marginally receptive fuels. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderate-strong midlevel westerly flow will be in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between a robust midlevel trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains and midlevel anticyclone over the southern Rockies/High Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Similar to Day 1/Thursday, a diurnally deepening boundary layer will extend well into the moderate-strong westerly flow aloft. This will promote an expansive overlap of single-digit to lower teens RH and 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating/mixing beneath an established midlevel moisture plume from the Southwest into the central Rockies will favor another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon. Associated inverted-V soundings and 0.50 to 0.75 inch PW will support mostly dry storms, capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... Minor changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area near the Four Corners region to shift the area slightly eastward, based on 12z CAM guidance. Also, the Elevated area was expanded eastward into portions of north-central Colorado where dry/breezy downslope winds are expected amid at least marginally receptive fuels. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderate-strong midlevel westerly flow will be in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between a robust midlevel trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains and midlevel anticyclone over the southern Rockies/High Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Similar to Day 1/Thursday, a diurnally deepening boundary layer will extend well into the moderate-strong westerly flow aloft. This will promote an expansive overlap of single-digit to lower teens RH and 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating/mixing beneath an established midlevel moisture plume from the Southwest into the central Rockies will favor another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon. Associated inverted-V soundings and 0.50 to 0.75 inch PW will support mostly dry storms, capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... Minor changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area near the Four Corners region to shift the area slightly eastward, based on 12z CAM guidance. Also, the Elevated area was expanded eastward into portions of north-central Colorado where dry/breezy downslope winds are expected amid at least marginally receptive fuels. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderate-strong midlevel westerly flow will be in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between a robust midlevel trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains and midlevel anticyclone over the southern Rockies/High Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Similar to Day 1/Thursday, a diurnally deepening boundary layer will extend well into the moderate-strong westerly flow aloft. This will promote an expansive overlap of single-digit to lower teens RH and 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating/mixing beneath an established midlevel moisture plume from the Southwest into the central Rockies will favor another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon. Associated inverted-V soundings and 0.50 to 0.75 inch PW will support mostly dry storms, capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... Minor changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area near the Four Corners region to shift the area slightly eastward, based on 12z CAM guidance. Also, the Elevated area was expanded eastward into portions of north-central Colorado where dry/breezy downslope winds are expected amid at least marginally receptive fuels. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderate-strong midlevel westerly flow will be in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between a robust midlevel trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains and midlevel anticyclone over the southern Rockies/High Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Similar to Day 1/Thursday, a diurnally deepening boundary layer will extend well into the moderate-strong westerly flow aloft. This will promote an expansive overlap of single-digit to lower teens RH and 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating/mixing beneath an established midlevel moisture plume from the Southwest into the central Rockies will favor another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon. Associated inverted-V soundings and 0.50 to 0.75 inch PW will support mostly dry storms, capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... Minor changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area near the Four Corners region to shift the area slightly eastward, based on 12z CAM guidance. Also, the Elevated area was expanded eastward into portions of north-central Colorado where dry/breezy downslope winds are expected amid at least marginally receptive fuels. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderate-strong midlevel westerly flow will be in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between a robust midlevel trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains and midlevel anticyclone over the southern Rockies/High Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Similar to Day 1/Thursday, a diurnally deepening boundary layer will extend well into the moderate-strong westerly flow aloft. This will promote an expansive overlap of single-digit to lower teens RH and 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating/mixing beneath an established midlevel moisture plume from the Southwest into the central Rockies will favor another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon. Associated inverted-V soundings and 0.50 to 0.75 inch PW will support mostly dry storms, capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... Minor changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area near the Four Corners region to shift the area slightly eastward, based on 12z CAM guidance. Also, the Elevated area was expanded eastward into portions of north-central Colorado where dry/breezy downslope winds are expected amid at least marginally receptive fuels. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderate-strong midlevel westerly flow will be in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between a robust midlevel trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains and midlevel anticyclone over the southern Rockies/High Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Similar to Day 1/Thursday, a diurnally deepening boundary layer will extend well into the moderate-strong westerly flow aloft. This will promote an expansive overlap of single-digit to lower teens RH and 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating/mixing beneath an established midlevel moisture plume from the Southwest into the central Rockies will favor another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon. Associated inverted-V soundings and 0.50 to 0.75 inch PW will support mostly dry storms, capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly Friday evening into early morning Saturday. Scattered damaging winds and large hail, along with a tornado or two are possible. ...Synopsis... A messy/complex setup remains evident on Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday. In the wake of multiple MCSs on D1, guidance consensus has trended farther east with the effective cold front by late afternoon. This boundary should be centered on northwest MN to eastern NE then arcing westward but pushing southward through the central High Plains. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeastward from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. ...Dakotas to northwest WI... Elevated convection may be ongoing at 12Z Friday and should persist through the day across most of ND and northern SD, within a post-frontal environment. Isolated severe hail and strong to marginal severe gusts are possible with this activity. Strengthening low-level convergence and ascent along/ahead of the front should await Friday evening, with increasing storm coverage and severe potential into Friday night. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a rapid transition to cluster/linear mode. With very large MLCAPE likely prevalent ahead of the front, potential for a QLCS producing damaging winds may evolve overnight. Guidance differs substantially in the corridor of where this would be favored with split signals across northern MN or southern MN. For this outlook cycle, have broadened the level 2-SLGT risk and will defer to later outlooks for a potential wind-driven ENH centered somewhere in MN. ...Black Hills/NE Panhandle... 12Z CAM and ML guidance are insistent on at least an isolated large hail scenario within the post-frontal environment characterized by northerly surface winds. A lobe of decreasing buoyancy should linger behind the front but will shift south with time. A few discrete supercells are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening amid a strong southwesterly mid-level jet. But much of the convection should be quickly undercut and may become rather elevated, dependent on timing of the front and low-level drying behind it. As such, have deferred to the D1 outlooks for a mesoscale hail-driven SLGT. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more