Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and a conditional risk for significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update Northern Plains... Early afternoon surface and satellite observations show low-level convergence increasing along the intersection of an outflow boundary/composite front and weak lee low over eastern MT. Along and south of the front, strong diurnal heating should gradually destabilize a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the low 70s F. Large to extreme CAPE is expected, owing to steep mid-level lapse rates, though with some capping likely to remain in place with southward extent. Rapid thunderstorm initiation appears probable this afternoon along the low-level convergence zone and in the higher terrain farther west as a shortwave trough proceeding the primary mid-level wave over the Northern Rockies ejects eastward. Initial storm mode is likely to be supercellular along or on the immediate cool side of the surface boundary. This would initially favor a large hail risk (some significant), and the potential for a few tornadoes, should storms become surface based. Tonight, the primary uncertainty continues to be small-scale storm dynamics governing upscale growth and the potential for bowing MCS/rear-inflow jet development. Should this occur relatively early on in the convective evolution (as shown by some CAMs), significant damaging winds (Gusts 80+ mph) are possible across portions of ND/SD through tonight. However, this remains highly uncertain and conditional. Regardless of the initial evolution, significant ascent from the primary upper trough ejecting eastward appears robust enough to support upscale growth with any ongoing convection and additional storms emanating from eastern MT later tonight. This could result in one or more clusters of strong storms capable of damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. Given recent trends, have shifted the northern bound of the level 3 Enhanced northward and eastward across ND/MN for significant damaging wind potential. Otherwise, see MCD #1896 and #1897 for short-term information. ..Lyons.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and a conditional risk for significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update Northern Plains... Early afternoon surface and satellite observations show low-level convergence increasing along the intersection of an outflow boundary/composite front and weak lee low over eastern MT. Along and south of the front, strong diurnal heating should gradually destabilize a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the low 70s F. Large to extreme CAPE is expected, owing to steep mid-level lapse rates, though with some capping likely to remain in place with southward extent. Rapid thunderstorm initiation appears probable this afternoon along the low-level convergence zone and in the higher terrain farther west as a shortwave trough proceeding the primary mid-level wave over the Northern Rockies ejects eastward. Initial storm mode is likely to be supercellular along or on the immediate cool side of the surface boundary. This would initially favor a large hail risk (some significant), and the potential for a few tornadoes, should storms become surface based. Tonight, the primary uncertainty continues to be small-scale storm dynamics governing upscale growth and the potential for bowing MCS/rear-inflow jet development. Should this occur relatively early on in the convective evolution (as shown by some CAMs), significant damaging winds (Gusts 80+ mph) are possible across portions of ND/SD through tonight. However, this remains highly uncertain and conditional. Regardless of the initial evolution, significant ascent from the primary upper trough ejecting eastward appears robust enough to support upscale growth with any ongoing convection and additional storms emanating from eastern MT later tonight. This could result in one or more clusters of strong storms capable of damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. Given recent trends, have shifted the northern bound of the level 3 Enhanced northward and eastward across ND/MN for significant damaging wind potential. Otherwise, see MCD #1896 and #1897 for short-term information. ..Lyons.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and a conditional risk for significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update Northern Plains... Early afternoon surface and satellite observations show low-level convergence increasing along the intersection of an outflow boundary/composite front and weak lee low over eastern MT. Along and south of the front, strong diurnal heating should gradually destabilize a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the low 70s F. Large to extreme CAPE is expected, owing to steep mid-level lapse rates, though with some capping likely to remain in place with southward extent. Rapid thunderstorm initiation appears probable this afternoon along the low-level convergence zone and in the higher terrain farther west as a shortwave trough proceeding the primary mid-level wave over the Northern Rockies ejects eastward. Initial storm mode is likely to be supercellular along or on the immediate cool side of the surface boundary. This would initially favor a large hail risk (some significant), and the potential for a few tornadoes, should storms become surface based. Tonight, the primary uncertainty continues to be small-scale storm dynamics governing upscale growth and the potential for bowing MCS/rear-inflow jet development. Should this occur relatively early on in the convective evolution (as shown by some CAMs), significant damaging winds (Gusts 80+ mph) are possible across portions of ND/SD through tonight. However, this remains highly uncertain and conditional. Regardless of the initial evolution, significant ascent from the primary upper trough ejecting eastward appears robust enough to support upscale growth with any ongoing convection and additional storms emanating from eastern MT later tonight. This could result in one or more clusters of strong storms capable of damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. Given recent trends, have shifted the northern bound of the level 3 Enhanced northward and eastward across ND/MN for significant damaging wind potential. Otherwise, see MCD #1896 and #1897 for short-term information. ..Lyons.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and a conditional risk for significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update Northern Plains... Early afternoon surface and satellite observations show low-level convergence increasing along the intersection of an outflow boundary/composite front and weak lee low over eastern MT. Along and south of the front, strong diurnal heating should gradually destabilize a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the low 70s F. Large to extreme CAPE is expected, owing to steep mid-level lapse rates, though with some capping likely to remain in place with southward extent. Rapid thunderstorm initiation appears probable this afternoon along the low-level convergence zone and in the higher terrain farther west as a shortwave trough proceeding the primary mid-level wave over the Northern Rockies ejects eastward. Initial storm mode is likely to be supercellular along or on the immediate cool side of the surface boundary. This would initially favor a large hail risk (some significant), and the potential for a few tornadoes, should storms become surface based. Tonight, the primary uncertainty continues to be small-scale storm dynamics governing upscale growth and the potential for bowing MCS/rear-inflow jet development. Should this occur relatively early on in the convective evolution (as shown by some CAMs), significant damaging winds (Gusts 80+ mph) are possible across portions of ND/SD through tonight. However, this remains highly uncertain and conditional. Regardless of the initial evolution, significant ascent from the primary upper trough ejecting eastward appears robust enough to support upscale growth with any ongoing convection and additional storms emanating from eastern MT later tonight. This could result in one or more clusters of strong storms capable of damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. Given recent trends, have shifted the northern bound of the level 3 Enhanced northward and eastward across ND/MN for significant damaging wind potential. Otherwise, see MCD #1896 and #1897 for short-term information. ..Lyons.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and a conditional risk for significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update Northern Plains... Early afternoon surface and satellite observations show low-level convergence increasing along the intersection of an outflow boundary/composite front and weak lee low over eastern MT. Along and south of the front, strong diurnal heating should gradually destabilize a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the low 70s F. Large to extreme CAPE is expected, owing to steep mid-level lapse rates, though with some capping likely to remain in place with southward extent. Rapid thunderstorm initiation appears probable this afternoon along the low-level convergence zone and in the higher terrain farther west as a shortwave trough proceeding the primary mid-level wave over the Northern Rockies ejects eastward. Initial storm mode is likely to be supercellular along or on the immediate cool side of the surface boundary. This would initially favor a large hail risk (some significant), and the potential for a few tornadoes, should storms become surface based. Tonight, the primary uncertainty continues to be small-scale storm dynamics governing upscale growth and the potential for bowing MCS/rear-inflow jet development. Should this occur relatively early on in the convective evolution (as shown by some CAMs), significant damaging winds (Gusts 80+ mph) are possible across portions of ND/SD through tonight. However, this remains highly uncertain and conditional. Regardless of the initial evolution, significant ascent from the primary upper trough ejecting eastward appears robust enough to support upscale growth with any ongoing convection and additional storms emanating from eastern MT later tonight. This could result in one or more clusters of strong storms capable of damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. Given recent trends, have shifted the northern bound of the level 3 Enhanced northward and eastward across ND/MN for significant damaging wind potential. Otherwise, see MCD #1896 and #1897 for short-term information. ..Lyons.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and a conditional risk for significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update Northern Plains... Early afternoon surface and satellite observations show low-level convergence increasing along the intersection of an outflow boundary/composite front and weak lee low over eastern MT. Along and south of the front, strong diurnal heating should gradually destabilize a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the low 70s F. Large to extreme CAPE is expected, owing to steep mid-level lapse rates, though with some capping likely to remain in place with southward extent. Rapid thunderstorm initiation appears probable this afternoon along the low-level convergence zone and in the higher terrain farther west as a shortwave trough proceeding the primary mid-level wave over the Northern Rockies ejects eastward. Initial storm mode is likely to be supercellular along or on the immediate cool side of the surface boundary. This would initially favor a large hail risk (some significant), and the potential for a few tornadoes, should storms become surface based. Tonight, the primary uncertainty continues to be small-scale storm dynamics governing upscale growth and the potential for bowing MCS/rear-inflow jet development. Should this occur relatively early on in the convective evolution (as shown by some CAMs), significant damaging winds (Gusts 80+ mph) are possible across portions of ND/SD through tonight. However, this remains highly uncertain and conditional. Regardless of the initial evolution, significant ascent from the primary upper trough ejecting eastward appears robust enough to support upscale growth with any ongoing convection and additional storms emanating from eastern MT later tonight. This could result in one or more clusters of strong storms capable of damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. Given recent trends, have shifted the northern bound of the level 3 Enhanced northward and eastward across ND/MN for significant damaging wind potential. Otherwise, see MCD #1896 and #1897 for short-term information. ..Lyons.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and a conditional risk for significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update Northern Plains... Early afternoon surface and satellite observations show low-level convergence increasing along the intersection of an outflow boundary/composite front and weak lee low over eastern MT. Along and south of the front, strong diurnal heating should gradually destabilize a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the low 70s F. Large to extreme CAPE is expected, owing to steep mid-level lapse rates, though with some capping likely to remain in place with southward extent. Rapid thunderstorm initiation appears probable this afternoon along the low-level convergence zone and in the higher terrain farther west as a shortwave trough proceeding the primary mid-level wave over the Northern Rockies ejects eastward. Initial storm mode is likely to be supercellular along or on the immediate cool side of the surface boundary. This would initially favor a large hail risk (some significant), and the potential for a few tornadoes, should storms become surface based. Tonight, the primary uncertainty continues to be small-scale storm dynamics governing upscale growth and the potential for bowing MCS/rear-inflow jet development. Should this occur relatively early on in the convective evolution (as shown by some CAMs), significant damaging winds (Gusts 80+ mph) are possible across portions of ND/SD through tonight. However, this remains highly uncertain and conditional. Regardless of the initial evolution, significant ascent from the primary upper trough ejecting eastward appears robust enough to support upscale growth with any ongoing convection and additional storms emanating from eastern MT later tonight. This could result in one or more clusters of strong storms capable of damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. Given recent trends, have shifted the northern bound of the level 3 Enhanced northward and eastward across ND/MN for significant damaging wind potential. Otherwise, see MCD #1896 and #1897 for short-term information. ..Lyons.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and a conditional risk for significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update Northern Plains... Early afternoon surface and satellite observations show low-level convergence increasing along the intersection of an outflow boundary/composite front and weak lee low over eastern MT. Along and south of the front, strong diurnal heating should gradually destabilize a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the low 70s F. Large to extreme CAPE is expected, owing to steep mid-level lapse rates, though with some capping likely to remain in place with southward extent. Rapid thunderstorm initiation appears probable this afternoon along the low-level convergence zone and in the higher terrain farther west as a shortwave trough proceeding the primary mid-level wave over the Northern Rockies ejects eastward. Initial storm mode is likely to be supercellular along or on the immediate cool side of the surface boundary. This would initially favor a large hail risk (some significant), and the potential for a few tornadoes, should storms become surface based. Tonight, the primary uncertainty continues to be small-scale storm dynamics governing upscale growth and the potential for bowing MCS/rear-inflow jet development. Should this occur relatively early on in the convective evolution (as shown by some CAMs), significant damaging winds (Gusts 80+ mph) are possible across portions of ND/SD through tonight. However, this remains highly uncertain and conditional. Regardless of the initial evolution, significant ascent from the primary upper trough ejecting eastward appears robust enough to support upscale growth with any ongoing convection and additional storms emanating from eastern MT later tonight. This could result in one or more clusters of strong storms capable of damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. Given recent trends, have shifted the northern bound of the level 3 Enhanced northward and eastward across ND/MN for significant damaging wind potential. Otherwise, see MCD #1896 and #1897 for short-term information. ..Lyons.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA TO NORTHEAST WI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across a portion of the central to southern High Plains. A more concentrated swath of severe is possible from northeast Iowa to northeast Wisconsin. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk as-is, with primary change to expand level 1-MRGL eastward in MI to MO. Spatial confidence is low on mesoscale details, especially given the large spread in CAM guidance for late D2 convective evolution upstream in MN. The convectively modified cold front should slow its eastward progression as the upstream shortwave trough/mid-level low stalls. The bulk of moderately enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should remain to the cool side of the front, with a pronounced cross-boundary gradient from northwest to southeast. This should generally yield multicell clustering with an uptick in intensity as diurnal destabilization occurs from IA to upper MI. The trailing/western portion of the daytime storm swath should be a focus for regenerative nocturnal storm development, as a low-level jet noses across the Lower MO Valley. Sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts and perhaps hail may linger into Saturday night. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front sweeping south on D2 should become quasi-stationary over the southern High Plains around the TX Panhandle on D3. Isolated storms are possible along the boundary with a threat for sporadic microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. More organized severe potential should be focused in the post-frontal regime along the Front Range. This should be centered on northeast CO amid stronger mid-level westerlies within the base of a stalled trough south of a low over the southern Prairie Provinces. This could yield a few supercells in the afternoon to evening and have expanded the level 2-MRGL risk north. Still, confidence is low on whether more than weak buoyancy will be present. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA TO NORTHEAST WI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across a portion of the central to southern High Plains. A more concentrated swath of severe is possible from northeast Iowa to northeast Wisconsin. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk as-is, with primary change to expand level 1-MRGL eastward in MI to MO. Spatial confidence is low on mesoscale details, especially given the large spread in CAM guidance for late D2 convective evolution upstream in MN. The convectively modified cold front should slow its eastward progression as the upstream shortwave trough/mid-level low stalls. The bulk of moderately enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should remain to the cool side of the front, with a pronounced cross-boundary gradient from northwest to southeast. This should generally yield multicell clustering with an uptick in intensity as diurnal destabilization occurs from IA to upper MI. The trailing/western portion of the daytime storm swath should be a focus for regenerative nocturnal storm development, as a low-level jet noses across the Lower MO Valley. Sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts and perhaps hail may linger into Saturday night. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front sweeping south on D2 should become quasi-stationary over the southern High Plains around the TX Panhandle on D3. Isolated storms are possible along the boundary with a threat for sporadic microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. More organized severe potential should be focused in the post-frontal regime along the Front Range. This should be centered on northeast CO amid stronger mid-level westerlies within the base of a stalled trough south of a low over the southern Prairie Provinces. This could yield a few supercells in the afternoon to evening and have expanded the level 2-MRGL risk north. Still, confidence is low on whether more than weak buoyancy will be present. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA TO NORTHEAST WI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across a portion of the central to southern High Plains. A more concentrated swath of severe is possible from northeast Iowa to northeast Wisconsin. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk as-is, with primary change to expand level 1-MRGL eastward in MI to MO. Spatial confidence is low on mesoscale details, especially given the large spread in CAM guidance for late D2 convective evolution upstream in MN. The convectively modified cold front should slow its eastward progression as the upstream shortwave trough/mid-level low stalls. The bulk of moderately enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should remain to the cool side of the front, with a pronounced cross-boundary gradient from northwest to southeast. This should generally yield multicell clustering with an uptick in intensity as diurnal destabilization occurs from IA to upper MI. The trailing/western portion of the daytime storm swath should be a focus for regenerative nocturnal storm development, as a low-level jet noses across the Lower MO Valley. Sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts and perhaps hail may linger into Saturday night. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front sweeping south on D2 should become quasi-stationary over the southern High Plains around the TX Panhandle on D3. Isolated storms are possible along the boundary with a threat for sporadic microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. More organized severe potential should be focused in the post-frontal regime along the Front Range. This should be centered on northeast CO amid stronger mid-level westerlies within the base of a stalled trough south of a low over the southern Prairie Provinces. This could yield a few supercells in the afternoon to evening and have expanded the level 2-MRGL risk north. Still, confidence is low on whether more than weak buoyancy will be present. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA TO NORTHEAST WI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across a portion of the central to southern High Plains. A more concentrated swath of severe is possible from northeast Iowa to northeast Wisconsin. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk as-is, with primary change to expand level 1-MRGL eastward in MI to MO. Spatial confidence is low on mesoscale details, especially given the large spread in CAM guidance for late D2 convective evolution upstream in MN. The convectively modified cold front should slow its eastward progression as the upstream shortwave trough/mid-level low stalls. The bulk of moderately enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should remain to the cool side of the front, with a pronounced cross-boundary gradient from northwest to southeast. This should generally yield multicell clustering with an uptick in intensity as diurnal destabilization occurs from IA to upper MI. The trailing/western portion of the daytime storm swath should be a focus for regenerative nocturnal storm development, as a low-level jet noses across the Lower MO Valley. Sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts and perhaps hail may linger into Saturday night. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front sweeping south on D2 should become quasi-stationary over the southern High Plains around the TX Panhandle on D3. Isolated storms are possible along the boundary with a threat for sporadic microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. More organized severe potential should be focused in the post-frontal regime along the Front Range. This should be centered on northeast CO amid stronger mid-level westerlies within the base of a stalled trough south of a low over the southern Prairie Provinces. This could yield a few supercells in the afternoon to evening and have expanded the level 2-MRGL risk north. Still, confidence is low on whether more than weak buoyancy will be present. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA TO NORTHEAST WI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across a portion of the central to southern High Plains. A more concentrated swath of severe is possible from northeast Iowa to northeast Wisconsin. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk as-is, with primary change to expand level 1-MRGL eastward in MI to MO. Spatial confidence is low on mesoscale details, especially given the large spread in CAM guidance for late D2 convective evolution upstream in MN. The convectively modified cold front should slow its eastward progression as the upstream shortwave trough/mid-level low stalls. The bulk of moderately enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should remain to the cool side of the front, with a pronounced cross-boundary gradient from northwest to southeast. This should generally yield multicell clustering with an uptick in intensity as diurnal destabilization occurs from IA to upper MI. The trailing/western portion of the daytime storm swath should be a focus for regenerative nocturnal storm development, as a low-level jet noses across the Lower MO Valley. Sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts and perhaps hail may linger into Saturday night. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front sweeping south on D2 should become quasi-stationary over the southern High Plains around the TX Panhandle on D3. Isolated storms are possible along the boundary with a threat for sporadic microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. More organized severe potential should be focused in the post-frontal regime along the Front Range. This should be centered on northeast CO amid stronger mid-level westerlies within the base of a stalled trough south of a low over the southern Prairie Provinces. This could yield a few supercells in the afternoon to evening and have expanded the level 2-MRGL risk north. Still, confidence is low on whether more than weak buoyancy will be present. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA TO NORTHEAST WI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across a portion of the central to southern High Plains. A more concentrated swath of severe is possible from northeast Iowa to northeast Wisconsin. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk as-is, with primary change to expand level 1-MRGL eastward in MI to MO. Spatial confidence is low on mesoscale details, especially given the large spread in CAM guidance for late D2 convective evolution upstream in MN. The convectively modified cold front should slow its eastward progression as the upstream shortwave trough/mid-level low stalls. The bulk of moderately enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should remain to the cool side of the front, with a pronounced cross-boundary gradient from northwest to southeast. This should generally yield multicell clustering with an uptick in intensity as diurnal destabilization occurs from IA to upper MI. The trailing/western portion of the daytime storm swath should be a focus for regenerative nocturnal storm development, as a low-level jet noses across the Lower MO Valley. Sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts and perhaps hail may linger into Saturday night. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front sweeping south on D2 should become quasi-stationary over the southern High Plains around the TX Panhandle on D3. Isolated storms are possible along the boundary with a threat for sporadic microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. More organized severe potential should be focused in the post-frontal regime along the Front Range. This should be centered on northeast CO amid stronger mid-level westerlies within the base of a stalled trough south of a low over the southern Prairie Provinces. This could yield a few supercells in the afternoon to evening and have expanded the level 2-MRGL risk north. Still, confidence is low on whether more than weak buoyancy will be present. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA TO NORTHEAST WI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across a portion of the central to southern High Plains. A more concentrated swath of severe is possible from northeast Iowa to northeast Wisconsin. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk as-is, with primary change to expand level 1-MRGL eastward in MI to MO. Spatial confidence is low on mesoscale details, especially given the large spread in CAM guidance for late D2 convective evolution upstream in MN. The convectively modified cold front should slow its eastward progression as the upstream shortwave trough/mid-level low stalls. The bulk of moderately enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should remain to the cool side of the front, with a pronounced cross-boundary gradient from northwest to southeast. This should generally yield multicell clustering with an uptick in intensity as diurnal destabilization occurs from IA to upper MI. The trailing/western portion of the daytime storm swath should be a focus for regenerative nocturnal storm development, as a low-level jet noses across the Lower MO Valley. Sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts and perhaps hail may linger into Saturday night. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front sweeping south on D2 should become quasi-stationary over the southern High Plains around the TX Panhandle on D3. Isolated storms are possible along the boundary with a threat for sporadic microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. More organized severe potential should be focused in the post-frontal regime along the Front Range. This should be centered on northeast CO amid stronger mid-level westerlies within the base of a stalled trough south of a low over the southern Prairie Provinces. This could yield a few supercells in the afternoon to evening and have expanded the level 2-MRGL risk north. Still, confidence is low on whether more than weak buoyancy will be present. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA TO NORTHEAST WI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across a portion of the central to southern High Plains. A more concentrated swath of severe is possible from northeast Iowa to northeast Wisconsin. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk as-is, with primary change to expand level 1-MRGL eastward in MI to MO. Spatial confidence is low on mesoscale details, especially given the large spread in CAM guidance for late D2 convective evolution upstream in MN. The convectively modified cold front should slow its eastward progression as the upstream shortwave trough/mid-level low stalls. The bulk of moderately enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should remain to the cool side of the front, with a pronounced cross-boundary gradient from northwest to southeast. This should generally yield multicell clustering with an uptick in intensity as diurnal destabilization occurs from IA to upper MI. The trailing/western portion of the daytime storm swath should be a focus for regenerative nocturnal storm development, as a low-level jet noses across the Lower MO Valley. Sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts and perhaps hail may linger into Saturday night. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front sweeping south on D2 should become quasi-stationary over the southern High Plains around the TX Panhandle on D3. Isolated storms are possible along the boundary with a threat for sporadic microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. More organized severe potential should be focused in the post-frontal regime along the Front Range. This should be centered on northeast CO amid stronger mid-level westerlies within the base of a stalled trough south of a low over the southern Prairie Provinces. This could yield a few supercells in the afternoon to evening and have expanded the level 2-MRGL risk north. Still, confidence is low on whether more than weak buoyancy will be present. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA TO NORTHEAST WI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across a portion of the central to southern High Plains. A more concentrated swath of severe is possible from northeast Iowa to northeast Wisconsin. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk as-is, with primary change to expand level 1-MRGL eastward in MI to MO. Spatial confidence is low on mesoscale details, especially given the large spread in CAM guidance for late D2 convective evolution upstream in MN. The convectively modified cold front should slow its eastward progression as the upstream shortwave trough/mid-level low stalls. The bulk of moderately enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should remain to the cool side of the front, with a pronounced cross-boundary gradient from northwest to southeast. This should generally yield multicell clustering with an uptick in intensity as diurnal destabilization occurs from IA to upper MI. The trailing/western portion of the daytime storm swath should be a focus for regenerative nocturnal storm development, as a low-level jet noses across the Lower MO Valley. Sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts and perhaps hail may linger into Saturday night. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front sweeping south on D2 should become quasi-stationary over the southern High Plains around the TX Panhandle on D3. Isolated storms are possible along the boundary with a threat for sporadic microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. More organized severe potential should be focused in the post-frontal regime along the Front Range. This should be centered on northeast CO amid stronger mid-level westerlies within the base of a stalled trough south of a low over the southern Prairie Provinces. This could yield a few supercells in the afternoon to evening and have expanded the level 2-MRGL risk north. Still, confidence is low on whether more than weak buoyancy will be present. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA TO NORTHEAST WI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across a portion of the central to southern High Plains. A more concentrated swath of severe is possible from northeast Iowa to northeast Wisconsin. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk as-is, with primary change to expand level 1-MRGL eastward in MI to MO. Spatial confidence is low on mesoscale details, especially given the large spread in CAM guidance for late D2 convective evolution upstream in MN. The convectively modified cold front should slow its eastward progression as the upstream shortwave trough/mid-level low stalls. The bulk of moderately enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should remain to the cool side of the front, with a pronounced cross-boundary gradient from northwest to southeast. This should generally yield multicell clustering with an uptick in intensity as diurnal destabilization occurs from IA to upper MI. The trailing/western portion of the daytime storm swath should be a focus for regenerative nocturnal storm development, as a low-level jet noses across the Lower MO Valley. Sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts and perhaps hail may linger into Saturday night. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front sweeping south on D2 should become quasi-stationary over the southern High Plains around the TX Panhandle on D3. Isolated storms are possible along the boundary with a threat for sporadic microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. More organized severe potential should be focused in the post-frontal regime along the Front Range. This should be centered on northeast CO amid stronger mid-level westerlies within the base of a stalled trough south of a low over the southern Prairie Provinces. This could yield a few supercells in the afternoon to evening and have expanded the level 2-MRGL risk north. Still, confidence is low on whether more than weak buoyancy will be present. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA TO NORTHEAST WI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across a portion of the central to southern High Plains. A more concentrated swath of severe is possible from northeast Iowa to northeast Wisconsin. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk as-is, with primary change to expand level 1-MRGL eastward in MI to MO. Spatial confidence is low on mesoscale details, especially given the large spread in CAM guidance for late D2 convective evolution upstream in MN. The convectively modified cold front should slow its eastward progression as the upstream shortwave trough/mid-level low stalls. The bulk of moderately enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should remain to the cool side of the front, with a pronounced cross-boundary gradient from northwest to southeast. This should generally yield multicell clustering with an uptick in intensity as diurnal destabilization occurs from IA to upper MI. The trailing/western portion of the daytime storm swath should be a focus for regenerative nocturnal storm development, as a low-level jet noses across the Lower MO Valley. Sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts and perhaps hail may linger into Saturday night. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front sweeping south on D2 should become quasi-stationary over the southern High Plains around the TX Panhandle on D3. Isolated storms are possible along the boundary with a threat for sporadic microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. More organized severe potential should be focused in the post-frontal regime along the Front Range. This should be centered on northeast CO amid stronger mid-level westerlies within the base of a stalled trough south of a low over the southern Prairie Provinces. This could yield a few supercells in the afternoon to evening and have expanded the level 2-MRGL risk north. Still, confidence is low on whether more than weak buoyancy will be present. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA TO NORTHEAST WI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across a portion of the central to southern High Plains. A more concentrated swath of severe is possible from northeast Iowa to northeast Wisconsin. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk as-is, with primary change to expand level 1-MRGL eastward in MI to MO. Spatial confidence is low on mesoscale details, especially given the large spread in CAM guidance for late D2 convective evolution upstream in MN. The convectively modified cold front should slow its eastward progression as the upstream shortwave trough/mid-level low stalls. The bulk of moderately enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should remain to the cool side of the front, with a pronounced cross-boundary gradient from northwest to southeast. This should generally yield multicell clustering with an uptick in intensity as diurnal destabilization occurs from IA to upper MI. The trailing/western portion of the daytime storm swath should be a focus for regenerative nocturnal storm development, as a low-level jet noses across the Lower MO Valley. Sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts and perhaps hail may linger into Saturday night. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front sweeping south on D2 should become quasi-stationary over the southern High Plains around the TX Panhandle on D3. Isolated storms are possible along the boundary with a threat for sporadic microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. More organized severe potential should be focused in the post-frontal regime along the Front Range. This should be centered on northeast CO amid stronger mid-level westerlies within the base of a stalled trough south of a low over the southern Prairie Provinces. This could yield a few supercells in the afternoon to evening and have expanded the level 2-MRGL risk north. Still, confidence is low on whether more than weak buoyancy will be present. ..Grams.. 08/07/2025 Read more