Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across portions of the central to southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move slowly eastward across southern SK and MB, with moderate cyclonic flow aloft moving from the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. As this occurs, an upper ridge over the eastern Great Lakes will be move toward southern QB and the Northeast. Well south of the upper low, modest westerlies aloft will remain over the central Rockies. At the surface, low pressure will move from southern MB into western ON, with a boundary stalling roughly from the upper MS Valley to KS. Ahead of this front, a moist and unstable air mass will remain with 60s and 70s F dewpoints. ...IA into WI and surrounding areas... The leading mid/upper speed max will move across the upper MS Valley relatively early in the day, with midlevel drying across much of MN into western WI. Heating will occur near the stalled front, with robust moisture leading to 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE by late afternoon. Complicating the forecast is the possibility of residual/midday storms, which could potentially overturn the air mass prematurely. However, in general, southwest low-level flow should maintain areas of moderate instability, with a late day increase in storm coverage and intensity. Corridors of damaging winds appear most probable, with substantial outflow. ...Central High Plains... Surface winds will veer to east/southeast during the day, with 50s F dewpoints backing west toward the Front Range. Steep lapse rates will lead to strong instability, especially from southeast CO west/northwestward. Isolated cells capable of large hail are forecast, with perhaps a brief tornado risk during the evening as low-level SRH increases. Capping and uncertainty in storm coverage currently precludes higher severe probabilities. ..Jewell.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MUCH OF MN AND NORTHWEST WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Scattered damaging winds, large hail, and couple tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep upper-level trough will move eastward into the northern Great Plains later today into tonight. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will move across parts of the northern/central Plains into parts of MN/IA. The stronger mid/upper-level flow associated with the trough will generally lag the cold front, though there is some potential for increasing deep-layer flow/shear to impinge on a strongly unstable environment during the afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas into MN and northern WI... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN. These storms could pose a threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. The influence of the early-day convection results in considerable uncertainty regarding storm evolution later in the day. Convection may persist through much of the day behind the front, and also potentially along/north of an outflow boundary that will likely be in place somewhere across northern MN. Warm-sector development along the cold front will be possible by late afternoon, though stronger large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching trough will not overspread the region until evening, when widespread storm development will become possible. Steep lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture will support strong to extreme buoyancy along/ahead of the cold front, and to the warm side of any outflows. Deep-layer shear will become sufficient for supercells, though deep-layer shear generally parallel to the cold front could result in a quick transition to cluster or linear mode. Any sustained warm-sector supercells could pose a threat of large hail and a tornado. Damaging winds may become the primary threat as storms increase and spread eastward through the evening into late tonight. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed for part of the region, if uncertainties regarding the influence of early-day convection and potentially late timing of redevelopment are resolved. ...Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle... Guidance varies regarding the potential for post-frontal storm development from the Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear would conditionally support supercells within this regime, with a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts. However, some guidance is rather aggressive with drying behind the front, resulting in limited storm coverage. This area will be monitored for greater hail probabilities, if trends support development of multiple sustained cells. ...Southern High Plains... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon within a hot and well-mixed environment across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer flow will generally remain weak, but may be sufficient for development of small outflow-driven clusters capable of localized severe gusts. ...Northern Lower MI... Similar to Thursday, a few strong storms may develop this afternoon and evening across parts of northern lower MI, along the northeast periphery of the substantial buoyancy reservoir centered over the central Plains and Midwest. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization, with a threat for isolated hail and damaging winds. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MUCH OF MN AND NORTHWEST WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Scattered damaging winds, large hail, and couple tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep upper-level trough will move eastward into the northern Great Plains later today into tonight. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will move across parts of the northern/central Plains into parts of MN/IA. The stronger mid/upper-level flow associated with the trough will generally lag the cold front, though there is some potential for increasing deep-layer flow/shear to impinge on a strongly unstable environment during the afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas into MN and northern WI... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN. These storms could pose a threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. The influence of the early-day convection results in considerable uncertainty regarding storm evolution later in the day. Convection may persist through much of the day behind the front, and also potentially along/north of an outflow boundary that will likely be in place somewhere across northern MN. Warm-sector development along the cold front will be possible by late afternoon, though stronger large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching trough will not overspread the region until evening, when widespread storm development will become possible. Steep lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture will support strong to extreme buoyancy along/ahead of the cold front, and to the warm side of any outflows. Deep-layer shear will become sufficient for supercells, though deep-layer shear generally parallel to the cold front could result in a quick transition to cluster or linear mode. Any sustained warm-sector supercells could pose a threat of large hail and a tornado. Damaging winds may become the primary threat as storms increase and spread eastward through the evening into late tonight. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed for part of the region, if uncertainties regarding the influence of early-day convection and potentially late timing of redevelopment are resolved. ...Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle... Guidance varies regarding the potential for post-frontal storm development from the Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear would conditionally support supercells within this regime, with a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts. However, some guidance is rather aggressive with drying behind the front, resulting in limited storm coverage. This area will be monitored for greater hail probabilities, if trends support development of multiple sustained cells. ...Southern High Plains... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon within a hot and well-mixed environment across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer flow will generally remain weak, but may be sufficient for development of small outflow-driven clusters capable of localized severe gusts. ...Northern Lower MI... Similar to Thursday, a few strong storms may develop this afternoon and evening across parts of northern lower MI, along the northeast periphery of the substantial buoyancy reservoir centered over the central Plains and Midwest. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization, with a threat for isolated hail and damaging winds. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MUCH OF MN AND NORTHWEST WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Scattered damaging winds, large hail, and couple tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep upper-level trough will move eastward into the northern Great Plains later today into tonight. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will move across parts of the northern/central Plains into parts of MN/IA. The stronger mid/upper-level flow associated with the trough will generally lag the cold front, though there is some potential for increasing deep-layer flow/shear to impinge on a strongly unstable environment during the afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas into MN and northern WI... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN. These storms could pose a threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. The influence of the early-day convection results in considerable uncertainty regarding storm evolution later in the day. Convection may persist through much of the day behind the front, and also potentially along/north of an outflow boundary that will likely be in place somewhere across northern MN. Warm-sector development along the cold front will be possible by late afternoon, though stronger large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching trough will not overspread the region until evening, when widespread storm development will become possible. Steep lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture will support strong to extreme buoyancy along/ahead of the cold front, and to the warm side of any outflows. Deep-layer shear will become sufficient for supercells, though deep-layer shear generally parallel to the cold front could result in a quick transition to cluster or linear mode. Any sustained warm-sector supercells could pose a threat of large hail and a tornado. Damaging winds may become the primary threat as storms increase and spread eastward through the evening into late tonight. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed for part of the region, if uncertainties regarding the influence of early-day convection and potentially late timing of redevelopment are resolved. ...Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle... Guidance varies regarding the potential for post-frontal storm development from the Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear would conditionally support supercells within this regime, with a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts. However, some guidance is rather aggressive with drying behind the front, resulting in limited storm coverage. This area will be monitored for greater hail probabilities, if trends support development of multiple sustained cells. ...Southern High Plains... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon within a hot and well-mixed environment across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer flow will generally remain weak, but may be sufficient for development of small outflow-driven clusters capable of localized severe gusts. ...Northern Lower MI... Similar to Thursday, a few strong storms may develop this afternoon and evening across parts of northern lower MI, along the northeast periphery of the substantial buoyancy reservoir centered over the central Plains and Midwest. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization, with a threat for isolated hail and damaging winds. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MUCH OF MN AND NORTHWEST WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Scattered damaging winds, large hail, and couple tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep upper-level trough will move eastward into the northern Great Plains later today into tonight. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will move across parts of the northern/central Plains into parts of MN/IA. The stronger mid/upper-level flow associated with the trough will generally lag the cold front, though there is some potential for increasing deep-layer flow/shear to impinge on a strongly unstable environment during the afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas into MN and northern WI... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN. These storms could pose a threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. The influence of the early-day convection results in considerable uncertainty regarding storm evolution later in the day. Convection may persist through much of the day behind the front, and also potentially along/north of an outflow boundary that will likely be in place somewhere across northern MN. Warm-sector development along the cold front will be possible by late afternoon, though stronger large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching trough will not overspread the region until evening, when widespread storm development will become possible. Steep lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture will support strong to extreme buoyancy along/ahead of the cold front, and to the warm side of any outflows. Deep-layer shear will become sufficient for supercells, though deep-layer shear generally parallel to the cold front could result in a quick transition to cluster or linear mode. Any sustained warm-sector supercells could pose a threat of large hail and a tornado. Damaging winds may become the primary threat as storms increase and spread eastward through the evening into late tonight. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed for part of the region, if uncertainties regarding the influence of early-day convection and potentially late timing of redevelopment are resolved. ...Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle... Guidance varies regarding the potential for post-frontal storm development from the Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear would conditionally support supercells within this regime, with a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts. However, some guidance is rather aggressive with drying behind the front, resulting in limited storm coverage. This area will be monitored for greater hail probabilities, if trends support development of multiple sustained cells. ...Southern High Plains... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon within a hot and well-mixed environment across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer flow will generally remain weak, but may be sufficient for development of small outflow-driven clusters capable of localized severe gusts. ...Northern Lower MI... Similar to Thursday, a few strong storms may develop this afternoon and evening across parts of northern lower MI, along the northeast periphery of the substantial buoyancy reservoir centered over the central Plains and Midwest. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization, with a threat for isolated hail and damaging winds. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MUCH OF MN AND NORTHWEST WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Scattered damaging winds, large hail, and couple tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep upper-level trough will move eastward into the northern Great Plains later today into tonight. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will move across parts of the northern/central Plains into parts of MN/IA. The stronger mid/upper-level flow associated with the trough will generally lag the cold front, though there is some potential for increasing deep-layer flow/shear to impinge on a strongly unstable environment during the afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas into MN and northern WI... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN. These storms could pose a threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. The influence of the early-day convection results in considerable uncertainty regarding storm evolution later in the day. Convection may persist through much of the day behind the front, and also potentially along/north of an outflow boundary that will likely be in place somewhere across northern MN. Warm-sector development along the cold front will be possible by late afternoon, though stronger large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching trough will not overspread the region until evening, when widespread storm development will become possible. Steep lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture will support strong to extreme buoyancy along/ahead of the cold front, and to the warm side of any outflows. Deep-layer shear will become sufficient for supercells, though deep-layer shear generally parallel to the cold front could result in a quick transition to cluster or linear mode. Any sustained warm-sector supercells could pose a threat of large hail and a tornado. Damaging winds may become the primary threat as storms increase and spread eastward through the evening into late tonight. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed for part of the region, if uncertainties regarding the influence of early-day convection and potentially late timing of redevelopment are resolved. ...Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle... Guidance varies regarding the potential for post-frontal storm development from the Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear would conditionally support supercells within this regime, with a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts. However, some guidance is rather aggressive with drying behind the front, resulting in limited storm coverage. This area will be monitored for greater hail probabilities, if trends support development of multiple sustained cells. ...Southern High Plains... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon within a hot and well-mixed environment across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer flow will generally remain weak, but may be sufficient for development of small outflow-driven clusters capable of localized severe gusts. ...Northern Lower MI... Similar to Thursday, a few strong storms may develop this afternoon and evening across parts of northern lower MI, along the northeast periphery of the substantial buoyancy reservoir centered over the central Plains and Midwest. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization, with a threat for isolated hail and damaging winds. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MUCH OF MN AND NORTHWEST WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Scattered damaging winds, large hail, and couple tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep upper-level trough will move eastward into the northern Great Plains later today into tonight. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will move across parts of the northern/central Plains into parts of MN/IA. The stronger mid/upper-level flow associated with the trough will generally lag the cold front, though there is some potential for increasing deep-layer flow/shear to impinge on a strongly unstable environment during the afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas into MN and northern WI... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN. These storms could pose a threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. The influence of the early-day convection results in considerable uncertainty regarding storm evolution later in the day. Convection may persist through much of the day behind the front, and also potentially along/north of an outflow boundary that will likely be in place somewhere across northern MN. Warm-sector development along the cold front will be possible by late afternoon, though stronger large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching trough will not overspread the region until evening, when widespread storm development will become possible. Steep lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture will support strong to extreme buoyancy along/ahead of the cold front, and to the warm side of any outflows. Deep-layer shear will become sufficient for supercells, though deep-layer shear generally parallel to the cold front could result in a quick transition to cluster or linear mode. Any sustained warm-sector supercells could pose a threat of large hail and a tornado. Damaging winds may become the primary threat as storms increase and spread eastward through the evening into late tonight. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed for part of the region, if uncertainties regarding the influence of early-day convection and potentially late timing of redevelopment are resolved. ...Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle... Guidance varies regarding the potential for post-frontal storm development from the Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear would conditionally support supercells within this regime, with a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts. However, some guidance is rather aggressive with drying behind the front, resulting in limited storm coverage. This area will be monitored for greater hail probabilities, if trends support development of multiple sustained cells. ...Southern High Plains... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon within a hot and well-mixed environment across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer flow will generally remain weak, but may be sufficient for development of small outflow-driven clusters capable of localized severe gusts. ...Northern Lower MI... Similar to Thursday, a few strong storms may develop this afternoon and evening across parts of northern lower MI, along the northeast periphery of the substantial buoyancy reservoir centered over the central Plains and Midwest. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization, with a threat for isolated hail and damaging winds. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MUCH OF MN AND NORTHWEST WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Scattered damaging winds, large hail, and couple tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep upper-level trough will move eastward into the northern Great Plains later today into tonight. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will move across parts of the northern/central Plains into parts of MN/IA. The stronger mid/upper-level flow associated with the trough will generally lag the cold front, though there is some potential for increasing deep-layer flow/shear to impinge on a strongly unstable environment during the afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas into MN and northern WI... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN. These storms could pose a threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. The influence of the early-day convection results in considerable uncertainty regarding storm evolution later in the day. Convection may persist through much of the day behind the front, and also potentially along/north of an outflow boundary that will likely be in place somewhere across northern MN. Warm-sector development along the cold front will be possible by late afternoon, though stronger large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching trough will not overspread the region until evening, when widespread storm development will become possible. Steep lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture will support strong to extreme buoyancy along/ahead of the cold front, and to the warm side of any outflows. Deep-layer shear will become sufficient for supercells, though deep-layer shear generally parallel to the cold front could result in a quick transition to cluster or linear mode. Any sustained warm-sector supercells could pose a threat of large hail and a tornado. Damaging winds may become the primary threat as storms increase and spread eastward through the evening into late tonight. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed for part of the region, if uncertainties regarding the influence of early-day convection and potentially late timing of redevelopment are resolved. ...Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle... Guidance varies regarding the potential for post-frontal storm development from the Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear would conditionally support supercells within this regime, with a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts. However, some guidance is rather aggressive with drying behind the front, resulting in limited storm coverage. This area will be monitored for greater hail probabilities, if trends support development of multiple sustained cells. ...Southern High Plains... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon within a hot and well-mixed environment across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer flow will generally remain weak, but may be sufficient for development of small outflow-driven clusters capable of localized severe gusts. ...Northern Lower MI... Similar to Thursday, a few strong storms may develop this afternoon and evening across parts of northern lower MI, along the northeast periphery of the substantial buoyancy reservoir centered over the central Plains and Midwest. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization, with a threat for isolated hail and damaging winds. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MUCH OF MN AND NORTHWEST WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Scattered damaging winds, large hail, and couple tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep upper-level trough will move eastward into the northern Great Plains later today into tonight. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will move across parts of the northern/central Plains into parts of MN/IA. The stronger mid/upper-level flow associated with the trough will generally lag the cold front, though there is some potential for increasing deep-layer flow/shear to impinge on a strongly unstable environment during the afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas into MN and northern WI... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN. These storms could pose a threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. The influence of the early-day convection results in considerable uncertainty regarding storm evolution later in the day. Convection may persist through much of the day behind the front, and also potentially along/north of an outflow boundary that will likely be in place somewhere across northern MN. Warm-sector development along the cold front will be possible by late afternoon, though stronger large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching trough will not overspread the region until evening, when widespread storm development will become possible. Steep lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture will support strong to extreme buoyancy along/ahead of the cold front, and to the warm side of any outflows. Deep-layer shear will become sufficient for supercells, though deep-layer shear generally parallel to the cold front could result in a quick transition to cluster or linear mode. Any sustained warm-sector supercells could pose a threat of large hail and a tornado. Damaging winds may become the primary threat as storms increase and spread eastward through the evening into late tonight. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed for part of the region, if uncertainties regarding the influence of early-day convection and potentially late timing of redevelopment are resolved. ...Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle... Guidance varies regarding the potential for post-frontal storm development from the Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear would conditionally support supercells within this regime, with a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts. However, some guidance is rather aggressive with drying behind the front, resulting in limited storm coverage. This area will be monitored for greater hail probabilities, if trends support development of multiple sustained cells. ...Southern High Plains... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon within a hot and well-mixed environment across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer flow will generally remain weak, but may be sufficient for development of small outflow-driven clusters capable of localized severe gusts. ...Northern Lower MI... Similar to Thursday, a few strong storms may develop this afternoon and evening across parts of northern lower MI, along the northeast periphery of the substantial buoyancy reservoir centered over the central Plains and Midwest. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization, with a threat for isolated hail and damaging winds. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MUCH OF MN AND NORTHWEST WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Scattered damaging winds, large hail, and couple tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep upper-level trough will move eastward into the northern Great Plains later today into tonight. In conjunction with this trough, a cold front will move across parts of the northern/central Plains into parts of MN/IA. The stronger mid/upper-level flow associated with the trough will generally lag the cold front, though there is some potential for increasing deep-layer flow/shear to impinge on a strongly unstable environment during the afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas into MN and northern WI... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN. These storms could pose a threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. The influence of the early-day convection results in considerable uncertainty regarding storm evolution later in the day. Convection may persist through much of the day behind the front, and also potentially along/north of an outflow boundary that will likely be in place somewhere across northern MN. Warm-sector development along the cold front will be possible by late afternoon, though stronger large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching trough will not overspread the region until evening, when widespread storm development will become possible. Steep lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture will support strong to extreme buoyancy along/ahead of the cold front, and to the warm side of any outflows. Deep-layer shear will become sufficient for supercells, though deep-layer shear generally parallel to the cold front could result in a quick transition to cluster or linear mode. Any sustained warm-sector supercells could pose a threat of large hail and a tornado. Damaging winds may become the primary threat as storms increase and spread eastward through the evening into late tonight. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed for part of the region, if uncertainties regarding the influence of early-day convection and potentially late timing of redevelopment are resolved. ...Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle... Guidance varies regarding the potential for post-frontal storm development from the Black Hills into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear would conditionally support supercells within this regime, with a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts. However, some guidance is rather aggressive with drying behind the front, resulting in limited storm coverage. This area will be monitored for greater hail probabilities, if trends support development of multiple sustained cells. ...Southern High Plains... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon within a hot and well-mixed environment across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer flow will generally remain weak, but may be sufficient for development of small outflow-driven clusters capable of localized severe gusts. ...Northern Lower MI... Similar to Thursday, a few strong storms may develop this afternoon and evening across parts of northern lower MI, along the northeast periphery of the substantial buoyancy reservoir centered over the central Plains and Midwest. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization, with a threat for isolated hail and damaging winds. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/08/2025 Read more

MD 1901 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 575...576... FOR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1901 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Areas affected...Northern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575...576... Valid 080330Z - 080530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575, 576 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will shift east over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Three clusters of severe thunderstorms have evolved over the northern High Plains late this evening. This activity is primarily located along the cool side of a frontal zone that currently extends from Fallon County MT to northeast of Minot ND. Each of these clusters have linear characteristics that favor severe winds, and this is supported by several measured gusts in excess of 50kt (64kt at MLS and 54kt at MOT). Over the next several hours these MCSs should advance across much of western and northern ND where ample buoyancy exists, coincident with a strengthening LLJ. ..Darrow.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 47170492 49000066 48219914 46770197 45980432 47170492 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0577 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0577 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BHK TO 45 ESE SDY TO 25 W MOT TO 45 N MOT. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-009-011-015-019-025-027-037-041-049-053-055-057-059- 061-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095-101-103-080540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURLEIGH CAVALIER DUNN EDDY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BHK TO 45 ESE SDY TO 25 W MOT TO 45 N MOT. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-009-011-015-019-025-027-037-041-049-053-055-057-059- 061-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095-101-103-080540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURLEIGH CAVALIER DUNN EDDY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1900 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1900 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Areas affected...Western and northern North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 080039Z - 080245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a severe threat through the late evening hours across northern North Dakota. Additionally, a developing MCS will propagate along a warm front into central ND through the overnight hours. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours, elevated convection has been percolating across northwest ND and eastward along the international border within a low-level warm advection regime. Within the past 30-60 minutes, MRMS and GOES IR imagery have shown an uptick in convective intensity, and surface observations show the development of a deepening cold pool. While recent CAM solutions hint that this activity will diminish in the coming hours, these observations suggest otherwise and fall in line with WoFS guidance that depict an increasing severe wind and hail risk across northern ND through early evening. Further upstream in MT, an MCS is beginning to mature along the I-94 corridor. This system is expected to intensify as it moves into far eastern MT/western ND where MLCAPE is considerably higher. This line is expected to propagate to the east/northeast along a surface warm front noted in recent surface observations, and should continue across ND through the overnight hours. Recent WoFS solutions hint at the potential for 2-3 inch hail with more discrete cells along the international border/northern ND, while winds between 70-90 mph will be possible with the developing MCS. Northeasterly low-level flow on the north side of a surface warm front may allow for adequate low-level SRH for some line-embedded tornado threat but confidence in this threat is limited away from the surface boundary. Regardless, watch issuance is expected to address these threats. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 48709718 48149722 47659787 46869994 46210151 45990274 46000360 46250426 46730453 47310459 47760457 48600443 48920433 49080392 49079726 48709718 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-027-033-037-041-049- 053-055-057-059-061-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095-101-103- 105-080240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN EDDY GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-027-033-037-041-049- 053-055-057-059-061-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095-101-103- 105-080240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN EDDY GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-027-033-037-041-049- 053-055-057-059-061-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095-101-103- 105-080240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN EDDY GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1899 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 575... FOR EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1899 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575... Valid 080028Z - 080230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will spread across eastern Montana this evening. Wind and hail remain the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale support appears to be spreading across central into eastern MT early this evening. Deep convection is responding to the upper trough with a gradually maturing squall line now evident from Yellowstone-Petroleum County. This linear MCS should gradually strengthen over the next few hours as it begins to surge east-northeast along a frontal zone that currently stretches from southeast MT-northwest ND. Wind profiles favor supercells, but current trends suggest a more complex mode will continue. If the aforementioned squall line continues to strengthen, damaging winds should become more likely, especially if bowing structures evolve. Strengthening LLJ is expected to encourage longevity as this activity spreads across the northern High Plains. ..Darrow.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 45170827 47630828 47920402 45450404 45170827 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more