Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may occur on Sunday from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and perhaps central Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, an upper trough will eject northeastward across Ontario, with a weak/broad upper trough across the central and northern Plains. This wave will maintain cool midlevel temperatures as far south as KS/MO/IL, where a belt of stronger 30+ kt midlevel flow will exist. At the surface, a weak front will stretch roughly from the upper Great Lakes into parts of KS and OK, with a moist air mass remaining ahead of it. Daytime heating will yield 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE along this same zone by afternoon. Southerly winds in the low levels will maintain a degree of warm advection near this front, especially from eastern KS across MO and into IL where early-day storms with outflows may exist. This makes placing the actual threat area more uncertain. However, substantial instability, despite weak shear, should result in a few clusters or lines of propagating storms producing locally strong to severe gusts near the Marginal Risk area. ..Jewell.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may occur on Sunday from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and perhaps central Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, an upper trough will eject northeastward across Ontario, with a weak/broad upper trough across the central and northern Plains. This wave will maintain cool midlevel temperatures as far south as KS/MO/IL, where a belt of stronger 30+ kt midlevel flow will exist. At the surface, a weak front will stretch roughly from the upper Great Lakes into parts of KS and OK, with a moist air mass remaining ahead of it. Daytime heating will yield 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE along this same zone by afternoon. Southerly winds in the low levels will maintain a degree of warm advection near this front, especially from eastern KS across MO and into IL where early-day storms with outflows may exist. This makes placing the actual threat area more uncertain. However, substantial instability, despite weak shear, should result in a few clusters or lines of propagating storms producing locally strong to severe gusts near the Marginal Risk area. ..Jewell.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may occur on Sunday from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and perhaps central Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, an upper trough will eject northeastward across Ontario, with a weak/broad upper trough across the central and northern Plains. This wave will maintain cool midlevel temperatures as far south as KS/MO/IL, where a belt of stronger 30+ kt midlevel flow will exist. At the surface, a weak front will stretch roughly from the upper Great Lakes into parts of KS and OK, with a moist air mass remaining ahead of it. Daytime heating will yield 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE along this same zone by afternoon. Southerly winds in the low levels will maintain a degree of warm advection near this front, especially from eastern KS across MO and into IL where early-day storms with outflows may exist. This makes placing the actual threat area more uncertain. However, substantial instability, despite weak shear, should result in a few clusters or lines of propagating storms producing locally strong to severe gusts near the Marginal Risk area. ..Jewell.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may occur on Sunday from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and perhaps central Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, an upper trough will eject northeastward across Ontario, with a weak/broad upper trough across the central and northern Plains. This wave will maintain cool midlevel temperatures as far south as KS/MO/IL, where a belt of stronger 30+ kt midlevel flow will exist. At the surface, a weak front will stretch roughly from the upper Great Lakes into parts of KS and OK, with a moist air mass remaining ahead of it. Daytime heating will yield 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE along this same zone by afternoon. Southerly winds in the low levels will maintain a degree of warm advection near this front, especially from eastern KS across MO and into IL where early-day storms with outflows may exist. This makes placing the actual threat area more uncertain. However, substantial instability, despite weak shear, should result in a few clusters or lines of propagating storms producing locally strong to severe gusts near the Marginal Risk area. ..Jewell.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may occur on Sunday from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and perhaps central Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, an upper trough will eject northeastward across Ontario, with a weak/broad upper trough across the central and northern Plains. This wave will maintain cool midlevel temperatures as far south as KS/MO/IL, where a belt of stronger 30+ kt midlevel flow will exist. At the surface, a weak front will stretch roughly from the upper Great Lakes into parts of KS and OK, with a moist air mass remaining ahead of it. Daytime heating will yield 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE along this same zone by afternoon. Southerly winds in the low levels will maintain a degree of warm advection near this front, especially from eastern KS across MO and into IL where early-day storms with outflows may exist. This makes placing the actual threat area more uncertain. However, substantial instability, despite weak shear, should result in a few clusters or lines of propagating storms producing locally strong to severe gusts near the Marginal Risk area. ..Jewell.. 08/08/2025 Read more

MD 1902 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 576...577... FOR PORTIONS OF ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1902 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of ND into far northwest MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 576...577... Valid 080618Z - 080745Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 576, 577 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts will persist another few hours across central/eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. DISCUSSION...Convection across ND has congealed into one distinct convective line over the past hour. The southern extent of the line has shown signs of weakening as outflow has at times surged ahead of the line. Meanwhile, stronger/better organized reflectivity and velocity signatures continue with northern portions of the line moving into northeast ND. The VWP from MBX indicates a healthy rear-inflow jet around 50-60 kt. Furthermore, a very moist and unstable airmass is in place ahead of convection. A modest southerly low-level jet also is nosing into the region, along with supercell wind profiles evident in VWP and mesoanalysis data downstream from ongoing convection. This should help to maintain an organized line. Damaging/severe gusts in the 55-65 mph range will likely continue, with an isolated stronger gust in the 70-80 mph range still possible in the short term. ..Leitman.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 49009969 49239767 48829655 47439715 46369860 45880036 45900183 46090228 46450252 49009969 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 577 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902. ..LEITMAN..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-029-069-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-135-167-080740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY CLEARWATER KITTSON MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU WILKIN NDC003-017-021-029-031-035-039-043-045-047-051-063-067-073-077- 081-085-091-093-097-099-080740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH NELSON PEMBINA RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SIOUX STEELE Read more

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 577 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902. ..LEITMAN..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-029-069-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-135-167-080740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY CLEARWATER KITTSON MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU WILKIN NDC003-017-021-029-031-035-039-043-045-047-051-063-067-073-077- 081-085-091-093-097-099-080740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH NELSON PEMBINA RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SIOUX STEELE Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N Y22 TO 25 NW BIS TO 55 WSW DVL TO 40 NW DVL TO 80 NNW DVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902. ..LEITMAN..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-015-019-027-037-059-071-083-095-103-080740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY GRANT MORTON RAMSEY SHERIDAN TOWNER WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N Y22 TO 25 NW BIS TO 55 WSW DVL TO 40 NW DVL TO 80 NNW DVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902. ..LEITMAN..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-015-019-027-037-059-071-083-095-103-080740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY GRANT MORTON RAMSEY SHERIDAN TOWNER WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N Y22 TO 25 NW BIS TO 55 WSW DVL TO 40 NW DVL TO 80 NNW DVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902. ..LEITMAN..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-015-019-027-037-059-071-083-095-103-080740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY GRANT MORTON RAMSEY SHERIDAN TOWNER WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N Y22 TO 25 NW BIS TO 55 WSW DVL TO 40 NW DVL TO 80 NNW DVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902. ..LEITMAN..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-015-019-027-037-059-071-083-095-103-080740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY GRANT MORTON RAMSEY SHERIDAN TOWNER WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N Y22 TO 25 NW BIS TO 55 WSW DVL TO 40 NW DVL TO 80 NNW DVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902. ..LEITMAN..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-015-019-027-037-059-071-083-095-103-080740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY GRANT MORTON RAMSEY SHERIDAN TOWNER WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 576 SEVERE TSTM ND 080100Z - 080800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 576 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 800 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Dakota * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 800 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 90 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms will increase this evening initially across northwest/northern North Dakota, and across a broader part of western North Dakota a bit later potentially including areas near/north of the I-94 corridor. Corridors of potentially widespread/locally damaging winds may evolve tonight, along with the potential for very large hail and possibly some tornado risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Williston ND to 35 miles south southeast of Devils Lake ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 575... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more