Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADA ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of eastern Colorado across southern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Hail may occur over western areas, with locally strong gusts over eastern areas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, a relatively weak and broad upper trough will exist across the central and northern Plains, with modest southwest flow aloft averaging 20-35 kt extending from CO/KS into the upper Great Lakes. While winds aloft will not be particularly strong, 500 mb temperatures to -10 C will extend as far south as northern NM and OK. At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the Intermountain West and into the central Plains. A boundary will stretch roughly from the TX Panhandle into northern MO/IL, with eastern parts of the boundary associated with early day storm outflow. Two primary areas of isolated severe potential will exist. One will be from northern MO into eastern KS, south of the composite front and where daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints will lead to over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, with lightly veering winds with height. The result will be evolving/propagating areas of storms with locally strong wind gusts during late afternoon and into the evening as southerly winds increase at 850 mb. The other area will be along the Front Range during the late afternoon, and extending east/southeast near the boundary into southern KS. Here, easterly surface winds in the post-frontal regime over CA and cool temperatures aloft combined with 30 kt midlevel southwesterlies may favor initial cells with hail. With time, activity should aggregate outflows with sporadic severe gusts possibly into KS or parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADA ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of eastern Colorado across southern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Hail may occur over western areas, with locally strong gusts over eastern areas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, a relatively weak and broad upper trough will exist across the central and northern Plains, with modest southwest flow aloft averaging 20-35 kt extending from CO/KS into the upper Great Lakes. While winds aloft will not be particularly strong, 500 mb temperatures to -10 C will extend as far south as northern NM and OK. At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the Intermountain West and into the central Plains. A boundary will stretch roughly from the TX Panhandle into northern MO/IL, with eastern parts of the boundary associated with early day storm outflow. Two primary areas of isolated severe potential will exist. One will be from northern MO into eastern KS, south of the composite front and where daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints will lead to over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, with lightly veering winds with height. The result will be evolving/propagating areas of storms with locally strong wind gusts during late afternoon and into the evening as southerly winds increase at 850 mb. The other area will be along the Front Range during the late afternoon, and extending east/southeast near the boundary into southern KS. Here, easterly surface winds in the post-frontal regime over CA and cool temperatures aloft combined with 30 kt midlevel southwesterlies may favor initial cells with hail. With time, activity should aggregate outflows with sporadic severe gusts possibly into KS or parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADA ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of eastern Colorado across southern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Hail may occur over western areas, with locally strong gusts over eastern areas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, a relatively weak and broad upper trough will exist across the central and northern Plains, with modest southwest flow aloft averaging 20-35 kt extending from CO/KS into the upper Great Lakes. While winds aloft will not be particularly strong, 500 mb temperatures to -10 C will extend as far south as northern NM and OK. At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the Intermountain West and into the central Plains. A boundary will stretch roughly from the TX Panhandle into northern MO/IL, with eastern parts of the boundary associated with early day storm outflow. Two primary areas of isolated severe potential will exist. One will be from northern MO into eastern KS, south of the composite front and where daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints will lead to over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, with lightly veering winds with height. The result will be evolving/propagating areas of storms with locally strong wind gusts during late afternoon and into the evening as southerly winds increase at 850 mb. The other area will be along the Front Range during the late afternoon, and extending east/southeast near the boundary into southern KS. Here, easterly surface winds in the post-frontal regime over CA and cool temperatures aloft combined with 30 kt midlevel southwesterlies may favor initial cells with hail. With time, activity should aggregate outflows with sporadic severe gusts possibly into KS or parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADA ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of eastern Colorado across southern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Hail may occur over western areas, with locally strong gusts over eastern areas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, a relatively weak and broad upper trough will exist across the central and northern Plains, with modest southwest flow aloft averaging 20-35 kt extending from CO/KS into the upper Great Lakes. While winds aloft will not be particularly strong, 500 mb temperatures to -10 C will extend as far south as northern NM and OK. At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the Intermountain West and into the central Plains. A boundary will stretch roughly from the TX Panhandle into northern MO/IL, with eastern parts of the boundary associated with early day storm outflow. Two primary areas of isolated severe potential will exist. One will be from northern MO into eastern KS, south of the composite front and where daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints will lead to over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, with lightly veering winds with height. The result will be evolving/propagating areas of storms with locally strong wind gusts during late afternoon and into the evening as southerly winds increase at 850 mb. The other area will be along the Front Range during the late afternoon, and extending east/southeast near the boundary into southern KS. Here, easterly surface winds in the post-frontal regime over CA and cool temperatures aloft combined with 30 kt midlevel southwesterlies may favor initial cells with hail. With time, activity should aggregate outflows with sporadic severe gusts possibly into KS or parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADA ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of eastern Colorado across southern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Hail may occur over western areas, with locally strong gusts over eastern areas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, a relatively weak and broad upper trough will exist across the central and northern Plains, with modest southwest flow aloft averaging 20-35 kt extending from CO/KS into the upper Great Lakes. While winds aloft will not be particularly strong, 500 mb temperatures to -10 C will extend as far south as northern NM and OK. At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the Intermountain West and into the central Plains. A boundary will stretch roughly from the TX Panhandle into northern MO/IL, with eastern parts of the boundary associated with early day storm outflow. Two primary areas of isolated severe potential will exist. One will be from northern MO into eastern KS, south of the composite front and where daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints will lead to over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, with lightly veering winds with height. The result will be evolving/propagating areas of storms with locally strong wind gusts during late afternoon and into the evening as southerly winds increase at 850 mb. The other area will be along the Front Range during the late afternoon, and extending east/southeast near the boundary into southern KS. Here, easterly surface winds in the post-frontal regime over CA and cool temperatures aloft combined with 30 kt midlevel southwesterlies may favor initial cells with hail. With time, activity should aggregate outflows with sporadic severe gusts possibly into KS or parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADA ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of eastern Colorado across southern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Hail may occur over western areas, with locally strong gusts over eastern areas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, a relatively weak and broad upper trough will exist across the central and northern Plains, with modest southwest flow aloft averaging 20-35 kt extending from CO/KS into the upper Great Lakes. While winds aloft will not be particularly strong, 500 mb temperatures to -10 C will extend as far south as northern NM and OK. At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the Intermountain West and into the central Plains. A boundary will stretch roughly from the TX Panhandle into northern MO/IL, with eastern parts of the boundary associated with early day storm outflow. Two primary areas of isolated severe potential will exist. One will be from northern MO into eastern KS, south of the composite front and where daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints will lead to over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, with lightly veering winds with height. The result will be evolving/propagating areas of storms with locally strong wind gusts during late afternoon and into the evening as southerly winds increase at 850 mb. The other area will be along the Front Range during the late afternoon, and extending east/southeast near the boundary into southern KS. Here, easterly surface winds in the post-frontal regime over CA and cool temperatures aloft combined with 30 kt midlevel southwesterlies may favor initial cells with hail. With time, activity should aggregate outflows with sporadic severe gusts possibly into KS or parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADA ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of eastern Colorado across southern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Hail may occur over western areas, with locally strong gusts over eastern areas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, a relatively weak and broad upper trough will exist across the central and northern Plains, with modest southwest flow aloft averaging 20-35 kt extending from CO/KS into the upper Great Lakes. While winds aloft will not be particularly strong, 500 mb temperatures to -10 C will extend as far south as northern NM and OK. At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the Intermountain West and into the central Plains. A boundary will stretch roughly from the TX Panhandle into northern MO/IL, with eastern parts of the boundary associated with early day storm outflow. Two primary areas of isolated severe potential will exist. One will be from northern MO into eastern KS, south of the composite front and where daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints will lead to over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, with lightly veering winds with height. The result will be evolving/propagating areas of storms with locally strong wind gusts during late afternoon and into the evening as southerly winds increase at 850 mb. The other area will be along the Front Range during the late afternoon, and extending east/southeast near the boundary into southern KS. Here, easterly surface winds in the post-frontal regime over CA and cool temperatures aloft combined with 30 kt midlevel southwesterlies may favor initial cells with hail. With time, activity should aggregate outflows with sporadic severe gusts possibly into KS or parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADA ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of eastern Colorado across southern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Hail may occur over western areas, with locally strong gusts over eastern areas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, a relatively weak and broad upper trough will exist across the central and northern Plains, with modest southwest flow aloft averaging 20-35 kt extending from CO/KS into the upper Great Lakes. While winds aloft will not be particularly strong, 500 mb temperatures to -10 C will extend as far south as northern NM and OK. At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the Intermountain West and into the central Plains. A boundary will stretch roughly from the TX Panhandle into northern MO/IL, with eastern parts of the boundary associated with early day storm outflow. Two primary areas of isolated severe potential will exist. One will be from northern MO into eastern KS, south of the composite front and where daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints will lead to over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, with lightly veering winds with height. The result will be evolving/propagating areas of storms with locally strong wind gusts during late afternoon and into the evening as southerly winds increase at 850 mb. The other area will be along the Front Range during the late afternoon, and extending east/southeast near the boundary into southern KS. Here, easterly surface winds in the post-frontal regime over CA and cool temperatures aloft combined with 30 kt midlevel southwesterlies may favor initial cells with hail. With time, activity should aggregate outflows with sporadic severe gusts possibly into KS or parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADA ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of eastern Colorado across southern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Hail may occur over western areas, with locally strong gusts over eastern areas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, a relatively weak and broad upper trough will exist across the central and northern Plains, with modest southwest flow aloft averaging 20-35 kt extending from CO/KS into the upper Great Lakes. While winds aloft will not be particularly strong, 500 mb temperatures to -10 C will extend as far south as northern NM and OK. At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the Intermountain West and into the central Plains. A boundary will stretch roughly from the TX Panhandle into northern MO/IL, with eastern parts of the boundary associated with early day storm outflow. Two primary areas of isolated severe potential will exist. One will be from northern MO into eastern KS, south of the composite front and where daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints will lead to over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, with lightly veering winds with height. The result will be evolving/propagating areas of storms with locally strong wind gusts during late afternoon and into the evening as southerly winds increase at 850 mb. The other area will be along the Front Range during the late afternoon, and extending east/southeast near the boundary into southern KS. Here, easterly surface winds in the post-frontal regime over CA and cool temperatures aloft combined with 30 kt midlevel southwesterlies may favor initial cells with hail. With time, activity should aggregate outflows with sporadic severe gusts possibly into KS or parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADA ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of eastern Colorado across southern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Hail may occur over western areas, with locally strong gusts over eastern areas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Sunday, a relatively weak and broad upper trough will exist across the central and northern Plains, with modest southwest flow aloft averaging 20-35 kt extending from CO/KS into the upper Great Lakes. While winds aloft will not be particularly strong, 500 mb temperatures to -10 C will extend as far south as northern NM and OK. At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the Intermountain West and into the central Plains. A boundary will stretch roughly from the TX Panhandle into northern MO/IL, with eastern parts of the boundary associated with early day storm outflow. Two primary areas of isolated severe potential will exist. One will be from northern MO into eastern KS, south of the composite front and where daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints will lead to over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, with lightly veering winds with height. The result will be evolving/propagating areas of storms with locally strong wind gusts during late afternoon and into the evening as southerly winds increase at 850 mb. The other area will be along the Front Range during the late afternoon, and extending east/southeast near the boundary into southern KS. Here, easterly surface winds in the post-frontal regime over CA and cool temperatures aloft combined with 30 kt midlevel southwesterlies may favor initial cells with hail. With time, activity should aggregate outflows with sporadic severe gusts possibly into KS or parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

MD 1907 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578... FOR MINNESOTA REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1907 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Areas affected...Minnesota region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 578... Valid 090425Z - 090630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 578 continues. SUMMARY...Convection should gradually increase along the surface front across ww578. DISCUSSION...Weak mid-level height falls are expected across the upper MS Valley into the early-morning hours, immediately ahead of progressive northern Plains upper trough. Leading edge of large-scale forcing appear to be approaching this region where thunderstorms have struggled a bit over the last few hours. Latest radar data suggests convection continues along the surface front from Kandiyohi-Crow Wing County, and some upward increase remains possible in response to the approaching trough. Forecast soundings suggest 700mb temperatures should cool a few degrees which supports a gradual increase in storms along the frontal zone. ..Darrow.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43289764 48459445 48459097 43289447 43289764 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN NE INTO IA/WI...NORTHERN MO/IL AND SOUTHERN UPPER MI...AND ALSO ACROSS EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Multiple damaging wind swaths are possible later today into tonight, centered on parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, and northwest Illinois. Multiple rounds of large hail are possible across eastern Colorado starting in the late afternoon. ...Upper Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley... Prior to the start of the forecast period, extensive convection is expected to develop across MN early this morning, in association with a seasonably strong mid/upper-level trough. A separate organized storm cluster may develop across the central Plains and approach parts of the MO Valley by 12Z this morning. Evolution of the morning convection is uncertain, but there will be some possibility for intensification as storms move eastward into a potentially destabilizing airmass. Should this occur, a swath of damaging wind will be possible across parts of WI and northwest IL later today. Also, depending on the southern extent of convection this morning, any organized cluster emerging from the central Plains could continue through the day across parts of IA, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. In the wake of early-day convection, an outflow-reinforced surface boundary may become quasi-stationary somewhere from the central Plains into parts of the Midwest, though uncertainty remains regarding the position of this boundary by late afternoon. Renewed storm development will be possible near the boundary, within a strongly unstable environment. While some weakening of deep-layer flow may occur, effective shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Initial supercell development is possible near the boundary, with a threat of isolated hail and possibly a tornado. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible during the evening, in association with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. This could support another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front may become quasi-stationary by this afternoon across the south-central High Plains. A favorable post-frontal regime for severe storms is expected to develop across eastern CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and favorable deep-layer shear will support scattered supercells capable of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, mainly this afternoon into the evening. Farther south, high-based convection may again develop across parts of eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, which could pose a threat of localized severe gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN NE INTO IA/WI...NORTHERN MO/IL AND SOUTHERN UPPER MI...AND ALSO ACROSS EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Multiple damaging wind swaths are possible later today into tonight, centered on parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, and northwest Illinois. Multiple rounds of large hail are possible across eastern Colorado starting in the late afternoon. ...Upper Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley... Prior to the start of the forecast period, extensive convection is expected to develop across MN early this morning, in association with a seasonably strong mid/upper-level trough. A separate organized storm cluster may develop across the central Plains and approach parts of the MO Valley by 12Z this morning. Evolution of the morning convection is uncertain, but there will be some possibility for intensification as storms move eastward into a potentially destabilizing airmass. Should this occur, a swath of damaging wind will be possible across parts of WI and northwest IL later today. Also, depending on the southern extent of convection this morning, any organized cluster emerging from the central Plains could continue through the day across parts of IA, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. In the wake of early-day convection, an outflow-reinforced surface boundary may become quasi-stationary somewhere from the central Plains into parts of the Midwest, though uncertainty remains regarding the position of this boundary by late afternoon. Renewed storm development will be possible near the boundary, within a strongly unstable environment. While some weakening of deep-layer flow may occur, effective shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Initial supercell development is possible near the boundary, with a threat of isolated hail and possibly a tornado. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible during the evening, in association with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. This could support another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front may become quasi-stationary by this afternoon across the south-central High Plains. A favorable post-frontal regime for severe storms is expected to develop across eastern CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and favorable deep-layer shear will support scattered supercells capable of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, mainly this afternoon into the evening. Farther south, high-based convection may again develop across parts of eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, which could pose a threat of localized severe gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN NE INTO IA/WI...NORTHERN MO/IL AND SOUTHERN UPPER MI...AND ALSO ACROSS EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Multiple damaging wind swaths are possible later today into tonight, centered on parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, and northwest Illinois. Multiple rounds of large hail are possible across eastern Colorado starting in the late afternoon. ...Upper Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley... Prior to the start of the forecast period, extensive convection is expected to develop across MN early this morning, in association with a seasonably strong mid/upper-level trough. A separate organized storm cluster may develop across the central Plains and approach parts of the MO Valley by 12Z this morning. Evolution of the morning convection is uncertain, but there will be some possibility for intensification as storms move eastward into a potentially destabilizing airmass. Should this occur, a swath of damaging wind will be possible across parts of WI and northwest IL later today. Also, depending on the southern extent of convection this morning, any organized cluster emerging from the central Plains could continue through the day across parts of IA, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. In the wake of early-day convection, an outflow-reinforced surface boundary may become quasi-stationary somewhere from the central Plains into parts of the Midwest, though uncertainty remains regarding the position of this boundary by late afternoon. Renewed storm development will be possible near the boundary, within a strongly unstable environment. While some weakening of deep-layer flow may occur, effective shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Initial supercell development is possible near the boundary, with a threat of isolated hail and possibly a tornado. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible during the evening, in association with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. This could support another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front may become quasi-stationary by this afternoon across the south-central High Plains. A favorable post-frontal regime for severe storms is expected to develop across eastern CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and favorable deep-layer shear will support scattered supercells capable of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, mainly this afternoon into the evening. Farther south, high-based convection may again develop across parts of eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, which could pose a threat of localized severe gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN NE INTO IA/WI...NORTHERN MO/IL AND SOUTHERN UPPER MI...AND ALSO ACROSS EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Multiple damaging wind swaths are possible later today into tonight, centered on parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, and northwest Illinois. Multiple rounds of large hail are possible across eastern Colorado starting in the late afternoon. ...Upper Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley... Prior to the start of the forecast period, extensive convection is expected to develop across MN early this morning, in association with a seasonably strong mid/upper-level trough. A separate organized storm cluster may develop across the central Plains and approach parts of the MO Valley by 12Z this morning. Evolution of the morning convection is uncertain, but there will be some possibility for intensification as storms move eastward into a potentially destabilizing airmass. Should this occur, a swath of damaging wind will be possible across parts of WI and northwest IL later today. Also, depending on the southern extent of convection this morning, any organized cluster emerging from the central Plains could continue through the day across parts of IA, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. In the wake of early-day convection, an outflow-reinforced surface boundary may become quasi-stationary somewhere from the central Plains into parts of the Midwest, though uncertainty remains regarding the position of this boundary by late afternoon. Renewed storm development will be possible near the boundary, within a strongly unstable environment. While some weakening of deep-layer flow may occur, effective shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Initial supercell development is possible near the boundary, with a threat of isolated hail and possibly a tornado. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible during the evening, in association with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. This could support another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front may become quasi-stationary by this afternoon across the south-central High Plains. A favorable post-frontal regime for severe storms is expected to develop across eastern CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and favorable deep-layer shear will support scattered supercells capable of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, mainly this afternoon into the evening. Farther south, high-based convection may again develop across parts of eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, which could pose a threat of localized severe gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/09/2025 Read more