Severe Storms

MD 1908 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578... FOR PORTIONS OF MN INTO NORTHWEST WI AND IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1908 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of MN into northwest WI and IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 578... Valid 090740Z - 090915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 578 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms may produce strong to severe wind gusts into early morning across eastern portions of Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin, and portions of northern Iowa. DISCUSSION...Storms have modestly increased in coverage/intensity over the past 1-2 hours ahead of the east/southeast-advancing cold front. A very moist airmass beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is supporting a corridor of strong instability greater than 2500 J/kg. Stronger vertical shear lags somewhat behind the front across IA into southeast MN/northwest WI, but a 30-40 kt low-level jet is evident across the region. Convection has been somewhat slow to increase/organize, but will likely persist in the favorable thermodynamic environment as large-scale ascent continues to slowly overspread the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valleys into early morning. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though isolated large hail is possible with any more discrete cellular activity. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 578 is set to expire at 09z. Given convection is likely to persist, a local watch extension or a new watch issuance is possible for parts of the MCD area. ..Leitman.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 42509608 48589323 48238987 45549139 42559354 42509608 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Northeast during the Tuesday/D4 to Wednesday/D5 time frame, with an initial push of drier air southward across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Stronger instability is forecast to redevelop by Thursday/D6 and beyond as a low-amplitude upper trough moves across the northern Rockies and Plains and increasing southerly low-level winds bring dewpoints into the mid 70s F northward across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys. This may yield one or more severe events across parts of the northern Plains to upper MS Valley, but confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Northeast during the Tuesday/D4 to Wednesday/D5 time frame, with an initial push of drier air southward across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Stronger instability is forecast to redevelop by Thursday/D6 and beyond as a low-amplitude upper trough moves across the northern Rockies and Plains and increasing southerly low-level winds bring dewpoints into the mid 70s F northward across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys. This may yield one or more severe events across parts of the northern Plains to upper MS Valley, but confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Northeast during the Tuesday/D4 to Wednesday/D5 time frame, with an initial push of drier air southward across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Stronger instability is forecast to redevelop by Thursday/D6 and beyond as a low-amplitude upper trough moves across the northern Rockies and Plains and increasing southerly low-level winds bring dewpoints into the mid 70s F northward across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys. This may yield one or more severe events across parts of the northern Plains to upper MS Valley, but confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Northeast during the Tuesday/D4 to Wednesday/D5 time frame, with an initial push of drier air southward across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Stronger instability is forecast to redevelop by Thursday/D6 and beyond as a low-amplitude upper trough moves across the northern Rockies and Plains and increasing southerly low-level winds bring dewpoints into the mid 70s F northward across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys. This may yield one or more severe events across parts of the northern Plains to upper MS Valley, but confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Northeast during the Tuesday/D4 to Wednesday/D5 time frame, with an initial push of drier air southward across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Stronger instability is forecast to redevelop by Thursday/D6 and beyond as a low-amplitude upper trough moves across the northern Rockies and Plains and increasing southerly low-level winds bring dewpoints into the mid 70s F northward across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys. This may yield one or more severe events across parts of the northern Plains to upper MS Valley, but confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Northeast during the Tuesday/D4 to Wednesday/D5 time frame, with an initial push of drier air southward across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Stronger instability is forecast to redevelop by Thursday/D6 and beyond as a low-amplitude upper trough moves across the northern Rockies and Plains and increasing southerly low-level winds bring dewpoints into the mid 70s F northward across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys. This may yield one or more severe events across parts of the northern Plains to upper MS Valley, but confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Northeast during the Tuesday/D4 to Wednesday/D5 time frame, with an initial push of drier air southward across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Stronger instability is forecast to redevelop by Thursday/D6 and beyond as a low-amplitude upper trough moves across the northern Rockies and Plains and increasing southerly low-level winds bring dewpoints into the mid 70s F northward across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys. This may yield one or more severe events across parts of the northern Plains to upper MS Valley, but confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Northeast during the Tuesday/D4 to Wednesday/D5 time frame, with an initial push of drier air southward across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Stronger instability is forecast to redevelop by Thursday/D6 and beyond as a low-amplitude upper trough moves across the northern Rockies and Plains and increasing southerly low-level winds bring dewpoints into the mid 70s F northward across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys. This may yield one or more severe events across parts of the northern Plains to upper MS Valley, but confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Northeast during the Tuesday/D4 to Wednesday/D5 time frame, with an initial push of drier air southward across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Stronger instability is forecast to redevelop by Thursday/D6 and beyond as a low-amplitude upper trough moves across the northern Rockies and Plains and increasing southerly low-level winds bring dewpoints into the mid 70s F northward across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys. This may yield one or more severe events across parts of the northern Plains to upper MS Valley, but confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Northeast during the Tuesday/D4 to Wednesday/D5 time frame, with an initial push of drier air southward across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Stronger instability is forecast to redevelop by Thursday/D6 and beyond as a low-amplitude upper trough moves across the northern Rockies and Plains and increasing southerly low-level winds bring dewpoints into the mid 70s F northward across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys. This may yield one or more severe events across parts of the northern Plains to upper MS Valley, but confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Northeast during the Tuesday/D4 to Wednesday/D5 time frame, with an initial push of drier air southward across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Stronger instability is forecast to redevelop by Thursday/D6 and beyond as a low-amplitude upper trough moves across the northern Rockies and Plains and increasing southerly low-level winds bring dewpoints into the mid 70s F northward across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys. This may yield one or more severe events across parts of the northern Plains to upper MS Valley, but confidence is low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a weak upper trough will remain over the central US, but winds aloft are forecast to dwindle as a primary midlevel wave sweeps across the northern Plains to upper Great Lakes. A weak surface trough may remain from the southern Plains into the lower MO Valley, but lift here will remain subtle. Overall, a moist and unstable air mass will still exist, but the lack of large-scale ascent and weakening lapse rates aloft is expected to mitigate severe storm potential. That said, a corridor of strong storms is most likely during the afternoon/early evening from parts of West TX across OK, eastern KS, MO and IL, with areas of gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a weak upper trough will remain over the central US, but winds aloft are forecast to dwindle as a primary midlevel wave sweeps across the northern Plains to upper Great Lakes. A weak surface trough may remain from the southern Plains into the lower MO Valley, but lift here will remain subtle. Overall, a moist and unstable air mass will still exist, but the lack of large-scale ascent and weakening lapse rates aloft is expected to mitigate severe storm potential. That said, a corridor of strong storms is most likely during the afternoon/early evening from parts of West TX across OK, eastern KS, MO and IL, with areas of gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a weak upper trough will remain over the central US, but winds aloft are forecast to dwindle as a primary midlevel wave sweeps across the northern Plains to upper Great Lakes. A weak surface trough may remain from the southern Plains into the lower MO Valley, but lift here will remain subtle. Overall, a moist and unstable air mass will still exist, but the lack of large-scale ascent and weakening lapse rates aloft is expected to mitigate severe storm potential. That said, a corridor of strong storms is most likely during the afternoon/early evening from parts of West TX across OK, eastern KS, MO and IL, with areas of gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a weak upper trough will remain over the central US, but winds aloft are forecast to dwindle as a primary midlevel wave sweeps across the northern Plains to upper Great Lakes. A weak surface trough may remain from the southern Plains into the lower MO Valley, but lift here will remain subtle. Overall, a moist and unstable air mass will still exist, but the lack of large-scale ascent and weakening lapse rates aloft is expected to mitigate severe storm potential. That said, a corridor of strong storms is most likely during the afternoon/early evening from parts of West TX across OK, eastern KS, MO and IL, with areas of gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a weak upper trough will remain over the central US, but winds aloft are forecast to dwindle as a primary midlevel wave sweeps across the northern Plains to upper Great Lakes. A weak surface trough may remain from the southern Plains into the lower MO Valley, but lift here will remain subtle. Overall, a moist and unstable air mass will still exist, but the lack of large-scale ascent and weakening lapse rates aloft is expected to mitigate severe storm potential. That said, a corridor of strong storms is most likely during the afternoon/early evening from parts of West TX across OK, eastern KS, MO and IL, with areas of gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a weak upper trough will remain over the central US, but winds aloft are forecast to dwindle as a primary midlevel wave sweeps across the northern Plains to upper Great Lakes. A weak surface trough may remain from the southern Plains into the lower MO Valley, but lift here will remain subtle. Overall, a moist and unstable air mass will still exist, but the lack of large-scale ascent and weakening lapse rates aloft is expected to mitigate severe storm potential. That said, a corridor of strong storms is most likely during the afternoon/early evening from parts of West TX across OK, eastern KS, MO and IL, with areas of gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a weak upper trough will remain over the central US, but winds aloft are forecast to dwindle as a primary midlevel wave sweeps across the northern Plains to upper Great Lakes. A weak surface trough may remain from the southern Plains into the lower MO Valley, but lift here will remain subtle. Overall, a moist and unstable air mass will still exist, but the lack of large-scale ascent and weakening lapse rates aloft is expected to mitigate severe storm potential. That said, a corridor of strong storms is most likely during the afternoon/early evening from parts of West TX across OK, eastern KS, MO and IL, with areas of gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a weak upper trough will remain over the central US, but winds aloft are forecast to dwindle as a primary midlevel wave sweeps across the northern Plains to upper Great Lakes. A weak surface trough may remain from the southern Plains into the lower MO Valley, but lift here will remain subtle. Overall, a moist and unstable air mass will still exist, but the lack of large-scale ascent and weakening lapse rates aloft is expected to mitigate severe storm potential. That said, a corridor of strong storms is most likely during the afternoon/early evening from parts of West TX across OK, eastern KS, MO and IL, with areas of gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2025 Read more