Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN NE INTO IA/WI...NORTHERN MO/IL AND SOUTHERN UPPER MI...AND ALSO ACROSS EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Multiple damaging wind swaths are possible later today into tonight, centered on parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, and northwest Illinois. Multiple rounds of large hail are possible across eastern Colorado starting in the late afternoon. ...Upper Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley... Prior to the start of the forecast period, extensive convection is expected to develop across MN early this morning, in association with a seasonably strong mid/upper-level trough. A separate organized storm cluster may develop across the central Plains and approach parts of the MO Valley by 12Z this morning. Evolution of the morning convection is uncertain, but there will be some possibility for intensification as storms move eastward into a potentially destabilizing airmass. Should this occur, a swath of damaging wind will be possible across parts of WI and northwest IL later today. Also, depending on the southern extent of convection this morning, any organized cluster emerging from the central Plains could continue through the day across parts of IA, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. In the wake of early-day convection, an outflow-reinforced surface boundary may become quasi-stationary somewhere from the central Plains into parts of the Midwest, though uncertainty remains regarding the position of this boundary by late afternoon. Renewed storm development will be possible near the boundary, within a strongly unstable environment. While some weakening of deep-layer flow may occur, effective shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Initial supercell development is possible near the boundary, with a threat of isolated hail and possibly a tornado. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible during the evening, in association with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. This could support another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front may become quasi-stationary by this afternoon across the south-central High Plains. A favorable post-frontal regime for severe storms is expected to develop across eastern CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and favorable deep-layer shear will support scattered supercells capable of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, mainly this afternoon into the evening. Farther south, high-based convection may again develop across parts of eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, which could pose a threat of localized severe gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN NE INTO IA/WI...NORTHERN MO/IL AND SOUTHERN UPPER MI...AND ALSO ACROSS EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Multiple damaging wind swaths are possible later today into tonight, centered on parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, and northwest Illinois. Multiple rounds of large hail are possible across eastern Colorado starting in the late afternoon. ...Upper Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley... Prior to the start of the forecast period, extensive convection is expected to develop across MN early this morning, in association with a seasonably strong mid/upper-level trough. A separate organized storm cluster may develop across the central Plains and approach parts of the MO Valley by 12Z this morning. Evolution of the morning convection is uncertain, but there will be some possibility for intensification as storms move eastward into a potentially destabilizing airmass. Should this occur, a swath of damaging wind will be possible across parts of WI and northwest IL later today. Also, depending on the southern extent of convection this morning, any organized cluster emerging from the central Plains could continue through the day across parts of IA, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. In the wake of early-day convection, an outflow-reinforced surface boundary may become quasi-stationary somewhere from the central Plains into parts of the Midwest, though uncertainty remains regarding the position of this boundary by late afternoon. Renewed storm development will be possible near the boundary, within a strongly unstable environment. While some weakening of deep-layer flow may occur, effective shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Initial supercell development is possible near the boundary, with a threat of isolated hail and possibly a tornado. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible during the evening, in association with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. This could support another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front may become quasi-stationary by this afternoon across the south-central High Plains. A favorable post-frontal regime for severe storms is expected to develop across eastern CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and favorable deep-layer shear will support scattered supercells capable of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, mainly this afternoon into the evening. Farther south, high-based convection may again develop across parts of eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, which could pose a threat of localized severe gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN NE INTO IA/WI...NORTHERN MO/IL AND SOUTHERN UPPER MI...AND ALSO ACROSS EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Multiple damaging wind swaths are possible later today into tonight, centered on parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, and northwest Illinois. Multiple rounds of large hail are possible across eastern Colorado starting in the late afternoon. ...Upper Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley... Prior to the start of the forecast period, extensive convection is expected to develop across MN early this morning, in association with a seasonably strong mid/upper-level trough. A separate organized storm cluster may develop across the central Plains and approach parts of the MO Valley by 12Z this morning. Evolution of the morning convection is uncertain, but there will be some possibility for intensification as storms move eastward into a potentially destabilizing airmass. Should this occur, a swath of damaging wind will be possible across parts of WI and northwest IL later today. Also, depending on the southern extent of convection this morning, any organized cluster emerging from the central Plains could continue through the day across parts of IA, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. In the wake of early-day convection, an outflow-reinforced surface boundary may become quasi-stationary somewhere from the central Plains into parts of the Midwest, though uncertainty remains regarding the position of this boundary by late afternoon. Renewed storm development will be possible near the boundary, within a strongly unstable environment. While some weakening of deep-layer flow may occur, effective shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Initial supercell development is possible near the boundary, with a threat of isolated hail and possibly a tornado. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible during the evening, in association with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. This could support another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front may become quasi-stationary by this afternoon across the south-central High Plains. A favorable post-frontal regime for severe storms is expected to develop across eastern CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and favorable deep-layer shear will support scattered supercells capable of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, mainly this afternoon into the evening. Farther south, high-based convection may again develop across parts of eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, which could pose a threat of localized severe gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN NE INTO IA/WI...NORTHERN MO/IL AND SOUTHERN UPPER MI...AND ALSO ACROSS EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Multiple damaging wind swaths are possible later today into tonight, centered on parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, and northwest Illinois. Multiple rounds of large hail are possible across eastern Colorado starting in the late afternoon. ...Upper Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley... Prior to the start of the forecast period, extensive convection is expected to develop across MN early this morning, in association with a seasonably strong mid/upper-level trough. A separate organized storm cluster may develop across the central Plains and approach parts of the MO Valley by 12Z this morning. Evolution of the morning convection is uncertain, but there will be some possibility for intensification as storms move eastward into a potentially destabilizing airmass. Should this occur, a swath of damaging wind will be possible across parts of WI and northwest IL later today. Also, depending on the southern extent of convection this morning, any organized cluster emerging from the central Plains could continue through the day across parts of IA, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. In the wake of early-day convection, an outflow-reinforced surface boundary may become quasi-stationary somewhere from the central Plains into parts of the Midwest, though uncertainty remains regarding the position of this boundary by late afternoon. Renewed storm development will be possible near the boundary, within a strongly unstable environment. While some weakening of deep-layer flow may occur, effective shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Initial supercell development is possible near the boundary, with a threat of isolated hail and possibly a tornado. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible during the evening, in association with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. This could support another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front may become quasi-stationary by this afternoon across the south-central High Plains. A favorable post-frontal regime for severe storms is expected to develop across eastern CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and favorable deep-layer shear will support scattered supercells capable of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, mainly this afternoon into the evening. Farther south, high-based convection may again develop across parts of eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, which could pose a threat of localized severe gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN NE INTO IA/WI...NORTHERN MO/IL AND SOUTHERN UPPER MI...AND ALSO ACROSS EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Multiple damaging wind swaths are possible later today into tonight, centered on parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, and northwest Illinois. Multiple rounds of large hail are possible across eastern Colorado starting in the late afternoon. ...Upper Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley... Prior to the start of the forecast period, extensive convection is expected to develop across MN early this morning, in association with a seasonably strong mid/upper-level trough. A separate organized storm cluster may develop across the central Plains and approach parts of the MO Valley by 12Z this morning. Evolution of the morning convection is uncertain, but there will be some possibility for intensification as storms move eastward into a potentially destabilizing airmass. Should this occur, a swath of damaging wind will be possible across parts of WI and northwest IL later today. Also, depending on the southern extent of convection this morning, any organized cluster emerging from the central Plains could continue through the day across parts of IA, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. In the wake of early-day convection, an outflow-reinforced surface boundary may become quasi-stationary somewhere from the central Plains into parts of the Midwest, though uncertainty remains regarding the position of this boundary by late afternoon. Renewed storm development will be possible near the boundary, within a strongly unstable environment. While some weakening of deep-layer flow may occur, effective shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Initial supercell development is possible near the boundary, with a threat of isolated hail and possibly a tornado. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible during the evening, in association with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. This could support another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front may become quasi-stationary by this afternoon across the south-central High Plains. A favorable post-frontal regime for severe storms is expected to develop across eastern CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and favorable deep-layer shear will support scattered supercells capable of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, mainly this afternoon into the evening. Farther south, high-based convection may again develop across parts of eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, which could pose a threat of localized severe gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN NE INTO IA/WI...NORTHERN MO/IL AND SOUTHERN UPPER MI...AND ALSO ACROSS EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Multiple damaging wind swaths are possible later today into tonight, centered on parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, and northwest Illinois. Multiple rounds of large hail are possible across eastern Colorado starting in the late afternoon. ...Upper Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley... Prior to the start of the forecast period, extensive convection is expected to develop across MN early this morning, in association with a seasonably strong mid/upper-level trough. A separate organized storm cluster may develop across the central Plains and approach parts of the MO Valley by 12Z this morning. Evolution of the morning convection is uncertain, but there will be some possibility for intensification as storms move eastward into a potentially destabilizing airmass. Should this occur, a swath of damaging wind will be possible across parts of WI and northwest IL later today. Also, depending on the southern extent of convection this morning, any organized cluster emerging from the central Plains could continue through the day across parts of IA, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. In the wake of early-day convection, an outflow-reinforced surface boundary may become quasi-stationary somewhere from the central Plains into parts of the Midwest, though uncertainty remains regarding the position of this boundary by late afternoon. Renewed storm development will be possible near the boundary, within a strongly unstable environment. While some weakening of deep-layer flow may occur, effective shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Initial supercell development is possible near the boundary, with a threat of isolated hail and possibly a tornado. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible during the evening, in association with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. This could support another round of damaging-wind potential. ...Central/southern High Plains... A cold front may become quasi-stationary by this afternoon across the south-central High Plains. A favorable post-frontal regime for severe storms is expected to develop across eastern CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and favorable deep-layer shear will support scattered supercells capable of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, mainly this afternoon into the evening. Farther south, high-based convection may again develop across parts of eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, which could pose a threat of localized severe gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/09/2025 Read more

WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE FSD TO 45 NNE RWF TO 20 NW BRD TO 40 W INL. ..LEITMAN..08/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-141-143-167-090640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA SIOUX MNC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-021-025-033-035-037-053-059-061- 063-065-071-079-085-091-093-095-097-103-115-123-127-129-137-139- 141-143-145-163-165-171-090640- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CASS CHISAGO COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA HENNEPIN ISANTI ITASCA JACKSON KANABEC KOOCHICHING LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON NICOLLET PINE RAMSEY Read more

WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE FSD TO 45 NNE RWF TO 20 NW BRD TO 40 W INL. ..LEITMAN..08/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-141-143-167-090640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA SIOUX MNC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-021-025-033-035-037-053-059-061- 063-065-071-079-085-091-093-095-097-103-115-123-127-129-137-139- 141-143-145-163-165-171-090640- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CASS CHISAGO COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA HENNEPIN ISANTI ITASCA JACKSON KANABEC KOOCHICHING LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON NICOLLET PINE RAMSEY Read more

MD 1906 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1906 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Kansas to south-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 090345Z - 090545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage from northwest Kansas into south central Nebraska. A few storms may be locally severe with a risk for hail and wind. DISCUSSION...Southern influence of northern Rockies/Plains upper trough is expected to aid convection within a post-frontal regime into the early-morning hours. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb flow will increase across northern CO into southern NE. While surface-based parcels are likely capped across this region, frontal lift and cooling 700mb temperatures appear favorable for elevated convection. Latest radar data supports this with a gradual increase in storms across northwest KS. This activity may continue to increase as it spreads/develops northeast over the next several hours. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ..Darrow/Guyer.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40050187 41139930 40349851 39250036 39020178 40050187 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 578 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-119-141-143-167-090440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA SIOUX MNC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033- 035-037-041-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-079-081-083- 085-087-091-093-095-097-101-103-105-111-115-117-121-123-127-129- 133-137-139-141-143-145-149-151-153-159-163-165-171-173- 090440- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BECKER BELTRAMI BENTON BIG STONE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CASS CHIPPEWA CHISAGO CLEARWATER COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA DOUGLAS GRANT HENNEPIN HUBBARD ISANTI ITASCA JACKSON Read more

WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 578 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-119-141-143-167-090440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA SIOUX MNC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033- 035-037-041-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-079-081-083- 085-087-091-093-095-097-101-103-105-111-115-117-121-123-127-129- 133-137-139-141-143-145-149-151-153-159-163-165-171-173- 090440- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BECKER BELTRAMI BENTON BIG STONE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CASS CHIPPEWA CHISAGO CLEARWATER COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA DOUGLAS GRANT HENNEPIN HUBBARD ISANTI ITASCA JACKSON Read more

MD 1905 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1905 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota into central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 090139Z - 090345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated across eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota in the coming hours. These storms will quickly intensify and pose a threat for large hail and severe gusts downstream into central Minnesota and eventually northwest Wisconsin later tonight. Watch issuance is expected. DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery shows the early stages of deepening updrafts along a cold front to the north/northwest of the Sioux Falls, SD area and south of Alexandria, MN. Based on 00z soundings from ABR and OAX, this portion of the front appears to have sufficiently weak MLCIN to allow for convective development, which has been anticipated by afternoon/early-evening CAM guidance during the 02-04 UTC period. As such, confidence is somewhat high that this is the beginning of tonight's more appreciable severe threat across the upper MS Valley. Regional 00z soundings also sampled steep-mid-level lapse rates supporting extreme MLCAPE values on the order of 4000-4500 J/kg. While deep-layer shear within the open warm sector is somewhat weak (around 15-20 per the MPX sounding), northerly post-frontal winds are elongating hodographs within the frontal zone and should promote organized convection shortly after sustained/deep initiation. While a few initial supercells are possible (with an attendant threat for large hail), upscale growth is expected through the late evening hours across central/northeast MN and northwest WI with an increasing risk for severe winds and perhaps brief line-embedded tornadoes - within the warm sector where 0-1 km SRH is on the order of around 100-150 m2/s2. Watch issuance is expected to address this potential. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43869705 44319706 47079521 47499494 47799439 47929371 47929306 47869233 47619162 47459127 47169104 46779089 46289098 46019102 45699132 45439147 45089192 43669537 43539585 43519631 43589672 43869705 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0578 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN AND NORTHWEST WI...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado are expected to develop this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN/northwest WI... Scattered to widespread storm development is still expected later this evening from the far eastern Dakotas into MN, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant cold front impinge upon a strongly unstable environment. A few supercells could evolve initially within a moderately sheared environment, with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado. Deep-layer flow/shear generally parallel to the front will likely result in a quick transition to a cluster or linear mode. This could lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind, though there may be some tendency for convection to become slightly anafrontal with time. Guidance suggests the greatest relative threat for more organized upscale growth will be from central into northeast MN, along a diffuse surface boundary. The late timing and the effects of nocturnal low-level stabilization results in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe-wind threat, but a swath of damaging wind remains possible into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains vicinity... Development of a supercell or two remains possible this evening within a post-frontal regime from southwest SD into western NE, though coverage remains uncertain. Elongated hodographs would support a hail threat with any sustained cells, with localized severe gusts also possible. Some recent runs of the HRRR suggest post-frontal development overnight across parts of southeast WY and northeast CO. While this scenario is uncertain, the environment will be favorable for isolated hail and strong gusts if storms develop. A nebulous but potentially organized severe threat also remains evident overnight across parts of NE into northern IA, within a favorably unstable and modestly sheared environment. Strong elevated storms will be possible as the front moves into the region, with some threat for hail and localized damaging winds. Any organized clustering could result in a locally greater damaging-wind threat. ...Northern Lower MI... A strong storm or two remains possible this evening across northern Lower MI, before convection wanes later tonight as CINH increases. Steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and around 30 kt of effective shear (as noted on the 00Z APX sounding) could continue to support a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts before storms diminish with time. ..Dean.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN AND NORTHWEST WI...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado are expected to develop this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN/northwest WI... Scattered to widespread storm development is still expected later this evening from the far eastern Dakotas into MN, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant cold front impinge upon a strongly unstable environment. A few supercells could evolve initially within a moderately sheared environment, with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado. Deep-layer flow/shear generally parallel to the front will likely result in a quick transition to a cluster or linear mode. This could lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind, though there may be some tendency for convection to become slightly anafrontal with time. Guidance suggests the greatest relative threat for more organized upscale growth will be from central into northeast MN, along a diffuse surface boundary. The late timing and the effects of nocturnal low-level stabilization results in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe-wind threat, but a swath of damaging wind remains possible into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains vicinity... Development of a supercell or two remains possible this evening within a post-frontal regime from southwest SD into western NE, though coverage remains uncertain. Elongated hodographs would support a hail threat with any sustained cells, with localized severe gusts also possible. Some recent runs of the HRRR suggest post-frontal development overnight across parts of southeast WY and northeast CO. While this scenario is uncertain, the environment will be favorable for isolated hail and strong gusts if storms develop. A nebulous but potentially organized severe threat also remains evident overnight across parts of NE into northern IA, within a favorably unstable and modestly sheared environment. Strong elevated storms will be possible as the front moves into the region, with some threat for hail and localized damaging winds. Any organized clustering could result in a locally greater damaging-wind threat. ...Northern Lower MI... A strong storm or two remains possible this evening across northern Lower MI, before convection wanes later tonight as CINH increases. Steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and around 30 kt of effective shear (as noted on the 00Z APX sounding) could continue to support a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts before storms diminish with time. ..Dean.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN AND NORTHWEST WI...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado are expected to develop this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN/northwest WI... Scattered to widespread storm development is still expected later this evening from the far eastern Dakotas into MN, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant cold front impinge upon a strongly unstable environment. A few supercells could evolve initially within a moderately sheared environment, with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado. Deep-layer flow/shear generally parallel to the front will likely result in a quick transition to a cluster or linear mode. This could lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind, though there may be some tendency for convection to become slightly anafrontal with time. Guidance suggests the greatest relative threat for more organized upscale growth will be from central into northeast MN, along a diffuse surface boundary. The late timing and the effects of nocturnal low-level stabilization results in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe-wind threat, but a swath of damaging wind remains possible into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains vicinity... Development of a supercell or two remains possible this evening within a post-frontal regime from southwest SD into western NE, though coverage remains uncertain. Elongated hodographs would support a hail threat with any sustained cells, with localized severe gusts also possible. Some recent runs of the HRRR suggest post-frontal development overnight across parts of southeast WY and northeast CO. While this scenario is uncertain, the environment will be favorable for isolated hail and strong gusts if storms develop. A nebulous but potentially organized severe threat also remains evident overnight across parts of NE into northern IA, within a favorably unstable and modestly sheared environment. Strong elevated storms will be possible as the front moves into the region, with some threat for hail and localized damaging winds. Any organized clustering could result in a locally greater damaging-wind threat. ...Northern Lower MI... A strong storm or two remains possible this evening across northern Lower MI, before convection wanes later tonight as CINH increases. Steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and around 30 kt of effective shear (as noted on the 00Z APX sounding) could continue to support a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts before storms diminish with time. ..Dean.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN AND NORTHWEST WI...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado are expected to develop this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN/northwest WI... Scattered to widespread storm development is still expected later this evening from the far eastern Dakotas into MN, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant cold front impinge upon a strongly unstable environment. A few supercells could evolve initially within a moderately sheared environment, with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado. Deep-layer flow/shear generally parallel to the front will likely result in a quick transition to a cluster or linear mode. This could lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind, though there may be some tendency for convection to become slightly anafrontal with time. Guidance suggests the greatest relative threat for more organized upscale growth will be from central into northeast MN, along a diffuse surface boundary. The late timing and the effects of nocturnal low-level stabilization results in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe-wind threat, but a swath of damaging wind remains possible into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains vicinity... Development of a supercell or two remains possible this evening within a post-frontal regime from southwest SD into western NE, though coverage remains uncertain. Elongated hodographs would support a hail threat with any sustained cells, with localized severe gusts also possible. Some recent runs of the HRRR suggest post-frontal development overnight across parts of southeast WY and northeast CO. While this scenario is uncertain, the environment will be favorable for isolated hail and strong gusts if storms develop. A nebulous but potentially organized severe threat also remains evident overnight across parts of NE into northern IA, within a favorably unstable and modestly sheared environment. Strong elevated storms will be possible as the front moves into the region, with some threat for hail and localized damaging winds. Any organized clustering could result in a locally greater damaging-wind threat. ...Northern Lower MI... A strong storm or two remains possible this evening across northern Lower MI, before convection wanes later tonight as CINH increases. Steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and around 30 kt of effective shear (as noted on the 00Z APX sounding) could continue to support a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts before storms diminish with time. ..Dean.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN AND NORTHWEST WI...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado are expected to develop this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN/northwest WI... Scattered to widespread storm development is still expected later this evening from the far eastern Dakotas into MN, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant cold front impinge upon a strongly unstable environment. A few supercells could evolve initially within a moderately sheared environment, with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado. Deep-layer flow/shear generally parallel to the front will likely result in a quick transition to a cluster or linear mode. This could lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind, though there may be some tendency for convection to become slightly anafrontal with time. Guidance suggests the greatest relative threat for more organized upscale growth will be from central into northeast MN, along a diffuse surface boundary. The late timing and the effects of nocturnal low-level stabilization results in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe-wind threat, but a swath of damaging wind remains possible into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains vicinity... Development of a supercell or two remains possible this evening within a post-frontal regime from southwest SD into western NE, though coverage remains uncertain. Elongated hodographs would support a hail threat with any sustained cells, with localized severe gusts also possible. Some recent runs of the HRRR suggest post-frontal development overnight across parts of southeast WY and northeast CO. While this scenario is uncertain, the environment will be favorable for isolated hail and strong gusts if storms develop. A nebulous but potentially organized severe threat also remains evident overnight across parts of NE into northern IA, within a favorably unstable and modestly sheared environment. Strong elevated storms will be possible as the front moves into the region, with some threat for hail and localized damaging winds. Any organized clustering could result in a locally greater damaging-wind threat. ...Northern Lower MI... A strong storm or two remains possible this evening across northern Lower MI, before convection wanes later tonight as CINH increases. Steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and around 30 kt of effective shear (as noted on the 00Z APX sounding) could continue to support a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts before storms diminish with time. ..Dean.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN AND NORTHWEST WI...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado are expected to develop this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN/northwest WI... Scattered to widespread storm development is still expected later this evening from the far eastern Dakotas into MN, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant cold front impinge upon a strongly unstable environment. A few supercells could evolve initially within a moderately sheared environment, with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado. Deep-layer flow/shear generally parallel to the front will likely result in a quick transition to a cluster or linear mode. This could lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind, though there may be some tendency for convection to become slightly anafrontal with time. Guidance suggests the greatest relative threat for more organized upscale growth will be from central into northeast MN, along a diffuse surface boundary. The late timing and the effects of nocturnal low-level stabilization results in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe-wind threat, but a swath of damaging wind remains possible into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains vicinity... Development of a supercell or two remains possible this evening within a post-frontal regime from southwest SD into western NE, though coverage remains uncertain. Elongated hodographs would support a hail threat with any sustained cells, with localized severe gusts also possible. Some recent runs of the HRRR suggest post-frontal development overnight across parts of southeast WY and northeast CO. While this scenario is uncertain, the environment will be favorable for isolated hail and strong gusts if storms develop. A nebulous but potentially organized severe threat also remains evident overnight across parts of NE into northern IA, within a favorably unstable and modestly sheared environment. Strong elevated storms will be possible as the front moves into the region, with some threat for hail and localized damaging winds. Any organized clustering could result in a locally greater damaging-wind threat. ...Northern Lower MI... A strong storm or two remains possible this evening across northern Lower MI, before convection wanes later tonight as CINH increases. Steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and around 30 kt of effective shear (as noted on the 00Z APX sounding) could continue to support a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts before storms diminish with time. ..Dean.. 08/09/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 8 22:36:01 UTC 2025.