Severe Storms

WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW SPW TO 25 S RWF TO 35 NNE RWF TO 40 SSW INL TO 25 ENE INL. ..LEITMAN..08/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-090840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON MNC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-025-033-035-037-053-059-061-063- 065-071-079-085-091-093-095-097-103-115-123-129-137-139-141-143- 145-163-165-171-090840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHISAGO COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA HENNEPIN ISANTI ITASCA JACKSON KANABEC KOOCHICHING LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON NICOLLET PINE RAMSEY RENVILLE ST. LOUIS SCOTT SHERBURNE Read more

WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW SPW TO 25 S RWF TO 35 NNE RWF TO 40 SSW INL TO 25 ENE INL. ..LEITMAN..08/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-090840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON MNC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-025-033-035-037-053-059-061-063- 065-071-079-085-091-093-095-097-103-115-123-129-137-139-141-143- 145-163-165-171-090840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHISAGO COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA HENNEPIN ISANTI ITASCA JACKSON KANABEC KOOCHICHING LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON NICOLLET PINE RAMSEY RENVILLE ST. LOUIS SCOTT SHERBURNE Read more

WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW SPW TO 25 S RWF TO 35 NNE RWF TO 40 SSW INL TO 25 ENE INL. ..LEITMAN..08/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-090840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON MNC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-025-033-035-037-053-059-061-063- 065-071-079-085-091-093-095-097-103-115-123-129-137-139-141-143- 145-163-165-171-090840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHISAGO COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA HENNEPIN ISANTI ITASCA JACKSON KANABEC KOOCHICHING LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON NICOLLET PINE RAMSEY RENVILLE ST. LOUIS SCOTT SHERBURNE Read more

WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW SPW TO 25 S RWF TO 35 NNE RWF TO 40 SSW INL TO 25 ENE INL. ..LEITMAN..08/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-090840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON MNC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-025-033-035-037-053-059-061-063- 065-071-079-085-091-093-095-097-103-115-123-129-137-139-141-143- 145-163-165-171-090840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHISAGO COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA HENNEPIN ISANTI ITASCA JACKSON KANABEC KOOCHICHING LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON NICOLLET PINE RAMSEY RENVILLE ST. LOUIS SCOTT SHERBURNE Read more

WW 578 SEVERE TSTM IA MN SD WI LS 090235Z - 090900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 578 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 935 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Minnesota Far Eastern South Dakota Northwest Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 935 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop through mid/late-evening initially across western/north-central Minnesota and possibly far east/southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa, before moving into east/northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin overnight. Large hail is possible, but damaging winds may become the most common hazard. Some tornado risk may exist as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northwest of Ely MN to 35 miles southwest of Worthington MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more