Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms still appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that weak mid-level troughing is likely to persist across the interior U.S., between larger-scale mean ridging centered offshore of the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated surface frontal zone, reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, most likely across parts of the southern Great Plains by early Monday, could remain a possible focus for stronger potential destabilization and renewed convective development later Monday into Monday night. However, guidance generally indicates that this boundary will tend to become more diffuse through the period, beneath weak/weakly sheared deep-layer mean flow. Isolated to, perhaps, widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe weather may not be entirely out of the question, but support for this will most likely depend of sub-synoptic developments with low predictability at this time frame. While the westerlies remain largely confined to the higher latitudes through this period, a significant short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity to the west of the upper Great Lakes. It currently appears that mid-level forcing for ascent and shear could become conditionally supportive of organized strong to severe thunderstorm development south of the international border by early Monday evening. However, it is not yet clear that low-level moisture return and cooling aloft, ahead of an associated cold front, will contribute to sufficient destabilization. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms still appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that weak mid-level troughing is likely to persist across the interior U.S., between larger-scale mean ridging centered offshore of the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated surface frontal zone, reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, most likely across parts of the southern Great Plains by early Monday, could remain a possible focus for stronger potential destabilization and renewed convective development later Monday into Monday night. However, guidance generally indicates that this boundary will tend to become more diffuse through the period, beneath weak/weakly sheared deep-layer mean flow. Isolated to, perhaps, widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe weather may not be entirely out of the question, but support for this will most likely depend of sub-synoptic developments with low predictability at this time frame. While the westerlies remain largely confined to the higher latitudes through this period, a significant short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity to the west of the upper Great Lakes. It currently appears that mid-level forcing for ascent and shear could become conditionally supportive of organized strong to severe thunderstorm development south of the international border by early Monday evening. However, it is not yet clear that low-level moisture return and cooling aloft, ahead of an associated cold front, will contribute to sufficient destabilization. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms still appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that weak mid-level troughing is likely to persist across the interior U.S., between larger-scale mean ridging centered offshore of the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated surface frontal zone, reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, most likely across parts of the southern Great Plains by early Monday, could remain a possible focus for stronger potential destabilization and renewed convective development later Monday into Monday night. However, guidance generally indicates that this boundary will tend to become more diffuse through the period, beneath weak/weakly sheared deep-layer mean flow. Isolated to, perhaps, widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe weather may not be entirely out of the question, but support for this will most likely depend of sub-synoptic developments with low predictability at this time frame. While the westerlies remain largely confined to the higher latitudes through this period, a significant short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity to the west of the upper Great Lakes. It currently appears that mid-level forcing for ascent and shear could become conditionally supportive of organized strong to severe thunderstorm development south of the international border by early Monday evening. However, it is not yet clear that low-level moisture return and cooling aloft, ahead of an associated cold front, will contribute to sufficient destabilization. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms still appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that weak mid-level troughing is likely to persist across the interior U.S., between larger-scale mean ridging centered offshore of the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated surface frontal zone, reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, most likely across parts of the southern Great Plains by early Monday, could remain a possible focus for stronger potential destabilization and renewed convective development later Monday into Monday night. However, guidance generally indicates that this boundary will tend to become more diffuse through the period, beneath weak/weakly sheared deep-layer mean flow. Isolated to, perhaps, widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe weather may not be entirely out of the question, but support for this will most likely depend of sub-synoptic developments with low predictability at this time frame. While the westerlies remain largely confined to the higher latitudes through this period, a significant short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity to the west of the upper Great Lakes. It currently appears that mid-level forcing for ascent and shear could become conditionally supportive of organized strong to severe thunderstorm development south of the international border by early Monday evening. However, it is not yet clear that low-level moisture return and cooling aloft, ahead of an associated cold front, will contribute to sufficient destabilization. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms still appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that weak mid-level troughing is likely to persist across the interior U.S., between larger-scale mean ridging centered offshore of the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated surface frontal zone, reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, most likely across parts of the southern Great Plains by early Monday, could remain a possible focus for stronger potential destabilization and renewed convective development later Monday into Monday night. However, guidance generally indicates that this boundary will tend to become more diffuse through the period, beneath weak/weakly sheared deep-layer mean flow. Isolated to, perhaps, widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe weather may not be entirely out of the question, but support for this will most likely depend of sub-synoptic developments with low predictability at this time frame. While the westerlies remain largely confined to the higher latitudes through this period, a significant short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity to the west of the upper Great Lakes. It currently appears that mid-level forcing for ascent and shear could become conditionally supportive of organized strong to severe thunderstorm development south of the international border by early Monday evening. However, it is not yet clear that low-level moisture return and cooling aloft, ahead of an associated cold front, will contribute to sufficient destabilization. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the southern Rockies into the lower Missouri Valley Sunday through Sunday night, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will remain generally prominent across the subtropical through mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic through eastern Pacific. Between a pair of relative centers of higher heights, offshore of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, a notable mid-level low, initially centered near the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, is forecast to transition to an open wave and accelerate across northwestern Ontario through northern Quebec Sunday through Sunday night. This is likely to be trailed by a short wave trough digging east southeast of the Canadian Rockies, through the Canadian Prairies. South of the international border, weak cyclonic flow is forecast to linger between the ridging, across the Rockies through Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes region. One embedded short wave perturbation may gradually turn east of the Colorado Rockies through central Great Plains, perhaps preceded by one or two convectively generated or augmented perturbations across parts of the lower Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Near/beneath the southern periphery of this regime, it appears that the remnants of an initially broad plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air advecting to the east of the Rockies will continue to become suppressed south/southwestward across the lower Missouri Valley and south central Great Plains. However, associated relatively dry lower/mid-tropospheric profiles with at least modestly steep lapse rates may still contribute to sizable CAPE, and an environment potentially conducive to downbursts and substantive surface cold pools in convective development. This should be maximized where seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content persists, in the wake of a stalled to slowly southward advancing convectively reinforced cold front across the central Great Plains, and either side of it across the lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern Rockies into lower Missouri Valley... Sub-synoptic developments still characterized by relatively low predictability, including potential convective evolution today into early Sunday, may considerably influence the convective potential for Sunday through Sunday night. The potentially focusing surface front and associated corridor of destabilization may be most impacted, with the environment otherwise likely to be rather marginal for organized severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of modest forcing for ascent and weak deep-layer mean flow/shear. But, the evolution of one or two thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts does not appear out of the question, particularly to the lee of the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the central Great Plains late Sunday into Sunday night, aided by the most notable short wave impulse and, perhaps, a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the southern Rockies into the lower Missouri Valley Sunday through Sunday night, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will remain generally prominent across the subtropical through mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic through eastern Pacific. Between a pair of relative centers of higher heights, offshore of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, a notable mid-level low, initially centered near the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, is forecast to transition to an open wave and accelerate across northwestern Ontario through northern Quebec Sunday through Sunday night. This is likely to be trailed by a short wave trough digging east southeast of the Canadian Rockies, through the Canadian Prairies. South of the international border, weak cyclonic flow is forecast to linger between the ridging, across the Rockies through Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes region. One embedded short wave perturbation may gradually turn east of the Colorado Rockies through central Great Plains, perhaps preceded by one or two convectively generated or augmented perturbations across parts of the lower Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Near/beneath the southern periphery of this regime, it appears that the remnants of an initially broad plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air advecting to the east of the Rockies will continue to become suppressed south/southwestward across the lower Missouri Valley and south central Great Plains. However, associated relatively dry lower/mid-tropospheric profiles with at least modestly steep lapse rates may still contribute to sizable CAPE, and an environment potentially conducive to downbursts and substantive surface cold pools in convective development. This should be maximized where seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content persists, in the wake of a stalled to slowly southward advancing convectively reinforced cold front across the central Great Plains, and either side of it across the lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern Rockies into lower Missouri Valley... Sub-synoptic developments still characterized by relatively low predictability, including potential convective evolution today into early Sunday, may considerably influence the convective potential for Sunday through Sunday night. The potentially focusing surface front and associated corridor of destabilization may be most impacted, with the environment otherwise likely to be rather marginal for organized severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of modest forcing for ascent and weak deep-layer mean flow/shear. But, the evolution of one or two thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts does not appear out of the question, particularly to the lee of the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the central Great Plains late Sunday into Sunday night, aided by the most notable short wave impulse and, perhaps, a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the southern Rockies into the lower Missouri Valley Sunday through Sunday night, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will remain generally prominent across the subtropical through mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic through eastern Pacific. Between a pair of relative centers of higher heights, offshore of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, a notable mid-level low, initially centered near the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, is forecast to transition to an open wave and accelerate across northwestern Ontario through northern Quebec Sunday through Sunday night. This is likely to be trailed by a short wave trough digging east southeast of the Canadian Rockies, through the Canadian Prairies. South of the international border, weak cyclonic flow is forecast to linger between the ridging, across the Rockies through Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes region. One embedded short wave perturbation may gradually turn east of the Colorado Rockies through central Great Plains, perhaps preceded by one or two convectively generated or augmented perturbations across parts of the lower Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Near/beneath the southern periphery of this regime, it appears that the remnants of an initially broad plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air advecting to the east of the Rockies will continue to become suppressed south/southwestward across the lower Missouri Valley and south central Great Plains. However, associated relatively dry lower/mid-tropospheric profiles with at least modestly steep lapse rates may still contribute to sizable CAPE, and an environment potentially conducive to downbursts and substantive surface cold pools in convective development. This should be maximized where seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content persists, in the wake of a stalled to slowly southward advancing convectively reinforced cold front across the central Great Plains, and either side of it across the lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern Rockies into lower Missouri Valley... Sub-synoptic developments still characterized by relatively low predictability, including potential convective evolution today into early Sunday, may considerably influence the convective potential for Sunday through Sunday night. The potentially focusing surface front and associated corridor of destabilization may be most impacted, with the environment otherwise likely to be rather marginal for organized severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of modest forcing for ascent and weak deep-layer mean flow/shear. But, the evolution of one or two thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts does not appear out of the question, particularly to the lee of the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the central Great Plains late Sunday into Sunday night, aided by the most notable short wave impulse and, perhaps, a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the southern Rockies into the lower Missouri Valley Sunday through Sunday night, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will remain generally prominent across the subtropical through mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic through eastern Pacific. Between a pair of relative centers of higher heights, offshore of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, a notable mid-level low, initially centered near the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, is forecast to transition to an open wave and accelerate across northwestern Ontario through northern Quebec Sunday through Sunday night. This is likely to be trailed by a short wave trough digging east southeast of the Canadian Rockies, through the Canadian Prairies. South of the international border, weak cyclonic flow is forecast to linger between the ridging, across the Rockies through Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes region. One embedded short wave perturbation may gradually turn east of the Colorado Rockies through central Great Plains, perhaps preceded by one or two convectively generated or augmented perturbations across parts of the lower Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Near/beneath the southern periphery of this regime, it appears that the remnants of an initially broad plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air advecting to the east of the Rockies will continue to become suppressed south/southwestward across the lower Missouri Valley and south central Great Plains. However, associated relatively dry lower/mid-tropospheric profiles with at least modestly steep lapse rates may still contribute to sizable CAPE, and an environment potentially conducive to downbursts and substantive surface cold pools in convective development. This should be maximized where seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content persists, in the wake of a stalled to slowly southward advancing convectively reinforced cold front across the central Great Plains, and either side of it across the lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern Rockies into lower Missouri Valley... Sub-synoptic developments still characterized by relatively low predictability, including potential convective evolution today into early Sunday, may considerably influence the convective potential for Sunday through Sunday night. The potentially focusing surface front and associated corridor of destabilization may be most impacted, with the environment otherwise likely to be rather marginal for organized severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of modest forcing for ascent and weak deep-layer mean flow/shear. But, the evolution of one or two thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts does not appear out of the question, particularly to the lee of the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the central Great Plains late Sunday into Sunday night, aided by the most notable short wave impulse and, perhaps, a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the southern Rockies into the lower Missouri Valley Sunday through Sunday night, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will remain generally prominent across the subtropical through mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic through eastern Pacific. Between a pair of relative centers of higher heights, offshore of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, a notable mid-level low, initially centered near the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, is forecast to transition to an open wave and accelerate across northwestern Ontario through northern Quebec Sunday through Sunday night. This is likely to be trailed by a short wave trough digging east southeast of the Canadian Rockies, through the Canadian Prairies. South of the international border, weak cyclonic flow is forecast to linger between the ridging, across the Rockies through Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes region. One embedded short wave perturbation may gradually turn east of the Colorado Rockies through central Great Plains, perhaps preceded by one or two convectively generated or augmented perturbations across parts of the lower Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Near/beneath the southern periphery of this regime, it appears that the remnants of an initially broad plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air advecting to the east of the Rockies will continue to become suppressed south/southwestward across the lower Missouri Valley and south central Great Plains. However, associated relatively dry lower/mid-tropospheric profiles with at least modestly steep lapse rates may still contribute to sizable CAPE, and an environment potentially conducive to downbursts and substantive surface cold pools in convective development. This should be maximized where seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content persists, in the wake of a stalled to slowly southward advancing convectively reinforced cold front across the central Great Plains, and either side of it across the lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern Rockies into lower Missouri Valley... Sub-synoptic developments still characterized by relatively low predictability, including potential convective evolution today into early Sunday, may considerably influence the convective potential for Sunday through Sunday night. The potentially focusing surface front and associated corridor of destabilization may be most impacted, with the environment otherwise likely to be rather marginal for organized severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of modest forcing for ascent and weak deep-layer mean flow/shear. But, the evolution of one or two thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts does not appear out of the question, particularly to the lee of the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the central Great Plains late Sunday into Sunday night, aided by the most notable short wave impulse and, perhaps, a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the southern Rockies into the lower Missouri Valley Sunday through Sunday night, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will remain generally prominent across the subtropical through mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic through eastern Pacific. Between a pair of relative centers of higher heights, offshore of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, a notable mid-level low, initially centered near the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, is forecast to transition to an open wave and accelerate across northwestern Ontario through northern Quebec Sunday through Sunday night. This is likely to be trailed by a short wave trough digging east southeast of the Canadian Rockies, through the Canadian Prairies. South of the international border, weak cyclonic flow is forecast to linger between the ridging, across the Rockies through Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes region. One embedded short wave perturbation may gradually turn east of the Colorado Rockies through central Great Plains, perhaps preceded by one or two convectively generated or augmented perturbations across parts of the lower Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Near/beneath the southern periphery of this regime, it appears that the remnants of an initially broad plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air advecting to the east of the Rockies will continue to become suppressed south/southwestward across the lower Missouri Valley and south central Great Plains. However, associated relatively dry lower/mid-tropospheric profiles with at least modestly steep lapse rates may still contribute to sizable CAPE, and an environment potentially conducive to downbursts and substantive surface cold pools in convective development. This should be maximized where seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content persists, in the wake of a stalled to slowly southward advancing convectively reinforced cold front across the central Great Plains, and either side of it across the lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern Rockies into lower Missouri Valley... Sub-synoptic developments still characterized by relatively low predictability, including potential convective evolution today into early Sunday, may considerably influence the convective potential for Sunday through Sunday night. The potentially focusing surface front and associated corridor of destabilization may be most impacted, with the environment otherwise likely to be rather marginal for organized severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of modest forcing for ascent and weak deep-layer mean flow/shear. But, the evolution of one or two thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts does not appear out of the question, particularly to the lee of the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the central Great Plains late Sunday into Sunday night, aided by the most notable short wave impulse and, perhaps, a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the southern Rockies into the lower Missouri Valley Sunday through Sunday night, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will remain generally prominent across the subtropical through mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic through eastern Pacific. Between a pair of relative centers of higher heights, offshore of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, a notable mid-level low, initially centered near the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, is forecast to transition to an open wave and accelerate across northwestern Ontario through northern Quebec Sunday through Sunday night. This is likely to be trailed by a short wave trough digging east southeast of the Canadian Rockies, through the Canadian Prairies. South of the international border, weak cyclonic flow is forecast to linger between the ridging, across the Rockies through Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes region. One embedded short wave perturbation may gradually turn east of the Colorado Rockies through central Great Plains, perhaps preceded by one or two convectively generated or augmented perturbations across parts of the lower Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Near/beneath the southern periphery of this regime, it appears that the remnants of an initially broad plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air advecting to the east of the Rockies will continue to become suppressed south/southwestward across the lower Missouri Valley and south central Great Plains. However, associated relatively dry lower/mid-tropospheric profiles with at least modestly steep lapse rates may still contribute to sizable CAPE, and an environment potentially conducive to downbursts and substantive surface cold pools in convective development. This should be maximized where seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content persists, in the wake of a stalled to slowly southward advancing convectively reinforced cold front across the central Great Plains, and either side of it across the lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern Rockies into lower Missouri Valley... Sub-synoptic developments still characterized by relatively low predictability, including potential convective evolution today into early Sunday, may considerably influence the convective potential for Sunday through Sunday night. The potentially focusing surface front and associated corridor of destabilization may be most impacted, with the environment otherwise likely to be rather marginal for organized severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of modest forcing for ascent and weak deep-layer mean flow/shear. But, the evolution of one or two thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts does not appear out of the question, particularly to the lee of the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the central Great Plains late Sunday into Sunday night, aided by the most notable short wave impulse and, perhaps, a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the southern Rockies into the lower Missouri Valley Sunday through Sunday night, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will remain generally prominent across the subtropical through mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic through eastern Pacific. Between a pair of relative centers of higher heights, offshore of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, a notable mid-level low, initially centered near the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, is forecast to transition to an open wave and accelerate across northwestern Ontario through northern Quebec Sunday through Sunday night. This is likely to be trailed by a short wave trough digging east southeast of the Canadian Rockies, through the Canadian Prairies. South of the international border, weak cyclonic flow is forecast to linger between the ridging, across the Rockies through Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes region. One embedded short wave perturbation may gradually turn east of the Colorado Rockies through central Great Plains, perhaps preceded by one or two convectively generated or augmented perturbations across parts of the lower Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Near/beneath the southern periphery of this regime, it appears that the remnants of an initially broad plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air advecting to the east of the Rockies will continue to become suppressed south/southwestward across the lower Missouri Valley and south central Great Plains. However, associated relatively dry lower/mid-tropospheric profiles with at least modestly steep lapse rates may still contribute to sizable CAPE, and an environment potentially conducive to downbursts and substantive surface cold pools in convective development. This should be maximized where seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content persists, in the wake of a stalled to slowly southward advancing convectively reinforced cold front across the central Great Plains, and either side of it across the lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern Rockies into lower Missouri Valley... Sub-synoptic developments still characterized by relatively low predictability, including potential convective evolution today into early Sunday, may considerably influence the convective potential for Sunday through Sunday night. The potentially focusing surface front and associated corridor of destabilization may be most impacted, with the environment otherwise likely to be rather marginal for organized severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of modest forcing for ascent and weak deep-layer mean flow/shear. But, the evolution of one or two thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts does not appear out of the question, particularly to the lee of the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the central Great Plains late Sunday into Sunday night, aided by the most notable short wave impulse and, perhaps, a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the southern Rockies into the lower Missouri Valley Sunday through Sunday night, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will remain generally prominent across the subtropical through mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic through eastern Pacific. Between a pair of relative centers of higher heights, offshore of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, a notable mid-level low, initially centered near the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, is forecast to transition to an open wave and accelerate across northwestern Ontario through northern Quebec Sunday through Sunday night. This is likely to be trailed by a short wave trough digging east southeast of the Canadian Rockies, through the Canadian Prairies. South of the international border, weak cyclonic flow is forecast to linger between the ridging, across the Rockies through Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes region. One embedded short wave perturbation may gradually turn east of the Colorado Rockies through central Great Plains, perhaps preceded by one or two convectively generated or augmented perturbations across parts of the lower Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Near/beneath the southern periphery of this regime, it appears that the remnants of an initially broad plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air advecting to the east of the Rockies will continue to become suppressed south/southwestward across the lower Missouri Valley and south central Great Plains. However, associated relatively dry lower/mid-tropospheric profiles with at least modestly steep lapse rates may still contribute to sizable CAPE, and an environment potentially conducive to downbursts and substantive surface cold pools in convective development. This should be maximized where seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content persists, in the wake of a stalled to slowly southward advancing convectively reinforced cold front across the central Great Plains, and either side of it across the lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern Rockies into lower Missouri Valley... Sub-synoptic developments still characterized by relatively low predictability, including potential convective evolution today into early Sunday, may considerably influence the convective potential for Sunday through Sunday night. The potentially focusing surface front and associated corridor of destabilization may be most impacted, with the environment otherwise likely to be rather marginal for organized severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of modest forcing for ascent and weak deep-layer mean flow/shear. But, the evolution of one or two thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts does not appear out of the question, particularly to the lee of the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the central Great Plains late Sunday into Sunday night, aided by the most notable short wave impulse and, perhaps, a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the southern Rockies into the lower Missouri Valley Sunday through Sunday night, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will remain generally prominent across the subtropical through mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic through eastern Pacific. Between a pair of relative centers of higher heights, offshore of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, a notable mid-level low, initially centered near the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, is forecast to transition to an open wave and accelerate across northwestern Ontario through northern Quebec Sunday through Sunday night. This is likely to be trailed by a short wave trough digging east southeast of the Canadian Rockies, through the Canadian Prairies. South of the international border, weak cyclonic flow is forecast to linger between the ridging, across the Rockies through Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes region. One embedded short wave perturbation may gradually turn east of the Colorado Rockies through central Great Plains, perhaps preceded by one or two convectively generated or augmented perturbations across parts of the lower Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Near/beneath the southern periphery of this regime, it appears that the remnants of an initially broad plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air advecting to the east of the Rockies will continue to become suppressed south/southwestward across the lower Missouri Valley and south central Great Plains. However, associated relatively dry lower/mid-tropospheric profiles with at least modestly steep lapse rates may still contribute to sizable CAPE, and an environment potentially conducive to downbursts and substantive surface cold pools in convective development. This should be maximized where seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content persists, in the wake of a stalled to slowly southward advancing convectively reinforced cold front across the central Great Plains, and either side of it across the lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern Rockies into lower Missouri Valley... Sub-synoptic developments still characterized by relatively low predictability, including potential convective evolution today into early Sunday, may considerably influence the convective potential for Sunday through Sunday night. The potentially focusing surface front and associated corridor of destabilization may be most impacted, with the environment otherwise likely to be rather marginal for organized severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of modest forcing for ascent and weak deep-layer mean flow/shear. But, the evolution of one or two thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts does not appear out of the question, particularly to the lee of the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the central Great Plains late Sunday into Sunday night, aided by the most notable short wave impulse and, perhaps, a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the southern Rockies into the lower Missouri Valley Sunday through Sunday night, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will remain generally prominent across the subtropical through mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic through eastern Pacific. Between a pair of relative centers of higher heights, offshore of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, a notable mid-level low, initially centered near the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, is forecast to transition to an open wave and accelerate across northwestern Ontario through northern Quebec Sunday through Sunday night. This is likely to be trailed by a short wave trough digging east southeast of the Canadian Rockies, through the Canadian Prairies. South of the international border, weak cyclonic flow is forecast to linger between the ridging, across the Rockies through Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes region. One embedded short wave perturbation may gradually turn east of the Colorado Rockies through central Great Plains, perhaps preceded by one or two convectively generated or augmented perturbations across parts of the lower Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Near/beneath the southern periphery of this regime, it appears that the remnants of an initially broad plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air advecting to the east of the Rockies will continue to become suppressed south/southwestward across the lower Missouri Valley and south central Great Plains. However, associated relatively dry lower/mid-tropospheric profiles with at least modestly steep lapse rates may still contribute to sizable CAPE, and an environment potentially conducive to downbursts and substantive surface cold pools in convective development. This should be maximized where seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content persists, in the wake of a stalled to slowly southward advancing convectively reinforced cold front across the central Great Plains, and either side of it across the lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern Rockies into lower Missouri Valley... Sub-synoptic developments still characterized by relatively low predictability, including potential convective evolution today into early Sunday, may considerably influence the convective potential for Sunday through Sunday night. The potentially focusing surface front and associated corridor of destabilization may be most impacted, with the environment otherwise likely to be rather marginal for organized severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of modest forcing for ascent and weak deep-layer mean flow/shear. But, the evolution of one or two thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts does not appear out of the question, particularly to the lee of the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the central Great Plains late Sunday into Sunday night, aided by the most notable short wave impulse and, perhaps, a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet. ..Kerr.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more