Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will move out of the upper MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a weak/residual midlevel trough over the central Plains. A weakening cold front attendant to the northern trough will push south across MN, WI and IA late with drying as the surface low pulls well north of the area. Otherwise, a weak surface pattern will exist from the Plains to the East Coast, but with a persistently moist air mass. Scattered thunderstorms appear most likely from IN southwestward into OK, however, shear will remain weak across the entire area, and lapse rates aloft will not be very steep. As such, mostly general thunderstorms are expected. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will move out of the upper MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a weak/residual midlevel trough over the central Plains. A weakening cold front attendant to the northern trough will push south across MN, WI and IA late with drying as the surface low pulls well north of the area. Otherwise, a weak surface pattern will exist from the Plains to the East Coast, but with a persistently moist air mass. Scattered thunderstorms appear most likely from IN southwestward into OK, however, shear will remain weak across the entire area, and lapse rates aloft will not be very steep. As such, mostly general thunderstorms are expected. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will move out of the upper MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a weak/residual midlevel trough over the central Plains. A weakening cold front attendant to the northern trough will push south across MN, WI and IA late with drying as the surface low pulls well north of the area. Otherwise, a weak surface pattern will exist from the Plains to the East Coast, but with a persistently moist air mass. Scattered thunderstorms appear most likely from IN southwestward into OK, however, shear will remain weak across the entire area, and lapse rates aloft will not be very steep. As such, mostly general thunderstorms are expected. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will move out of the upper MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a weak/residual midlevel trough over the central Plains. A weakening cold front attendant to the northern trough will push south across MN, WI and IA late with drying as the surface low pulls well north of the area. Otherwise, a weak surface pattern will exist from the Plains to the East Coast, but with a persistently moist air mass. Scattered thunderstorms appear most likely from IN southwestward into OK, however, shear will remain weak across the entire area, and lapse rates aloft will not be very steep. As such, mostly general thunderstorms are expected. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will move out of the upper MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a weak/residual midlevel trough over the central Plains. A weakening cold front attendant to the northern trough will push south across MN, WI and IA late with drying as the surface low pulls well north of the area. Otherwise, a weak surface pattern will exist from the Plains to the East Coast, but with a persistently moist air mass. Scattered thunderstorms appear most likely from IN southwestward into OK, however, shear will remain weak across the entire area, and lapse rates aloft will not be very steep. As such, mostly general thunderstorms are expected. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will move out of the upper MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a weak/residual midlevel trough over the central Plains. A weakening cold front attendant to the northern trough will push south across MN, WI and IA late with drying as the surface low pulls well north of the area. Otherwise, a weak surface pattern will exist from the Plains to the East Coast, but with a persistently moist air mass. Scattered thunderstorms appear most likely from IN southwestward into OK, however, shear will remain weak across the entire area, and lapse rates aloft will not be very steep. As such, mostly general thunderstorms are expected. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will move out of the upper MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a weak/residual midlevel trough over the central Plains. A weakening cold front attendant to the northern trough will push south across MN, WI and IA late with drying as the surface low pulls well north of the area. Otherwise, a weak surface pattern will exist from the Plains to the East Coast, but with a persistently moist air mass. Scattered thunderstorms appear most likely from IN southwestward into OK, however, shear will remain weak across the entire area, and lapse rates aloft will not be very steep. As such, mostly general thunderstorms are expected. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

MD 1919 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582... FOR SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1919 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Areas affected...southeast NE and northeast KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582... Valid 100539Z - 100715Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts will remain possible over the next few hours across southeast NE into northeast KS. DISCUSSION...Latest radar trends show some weakening of the bowing cluster across KS as outflow has raced southeast, as evident in KDDC and KUEX 88-D data. An embedded supercell on the northern side of this cluster has recently intensified, presenting very strong velocity signatures over the past 30 minutes. The area downstream across far southeast NE and far northeast KS (along the state border) may see the greatest risk for more intense gusts (65-80 mph) in the short term. A very moist and strongly unstable downstream airmass is noted in surface observations and latest mesoanalysis data. Modest vertical shear and a 30 kt south/southwesterly low-level jet should support continued storm organization and maintain a severe risk across the broader region over the next several hours as convection approaches the Missouri River. ..Leitman.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 40419857 40759771 40869631 40499576 39889568 39409607 39119798 39039891 39269916 39699914 40199896 40299884 40419857 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE TAD TO 25 E PUB TO 45 NNE LHX. ..LEITMAN..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-025-061-089-099-100740- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CROWLEY KIOWA OTERO PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S GLD TO 15 WSW RSL TO 55 WNW CNK TO 40 NNW CNK TO 20 WSW OLU. ..LEITMAN..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...DDC...GLD...GID...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-100740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE KSC013-027-029-055-071-075-083-085-089-093-101-105-117-123-131- 135-141-143-145-149-157-161-165-167-171-201-203-100740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY CLOUD FINNEY GREELEY HAMILTON HODGEMAN JACKSON JEWELL KEARNY LANE LINCOLN MARSHALL MITCHELL NEMAHA NESS OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT WASHINGTON WICHITA Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more