Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more

WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 583 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-025-061-089-099-101-100640- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CROWLEY KIOWA OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S GLD TO 20 W RSL TO 10 NNE GRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919. ..LEITMAN..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...DDC...GLD...GID...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-100640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE KSC027-029-055-071-075-083-089-093-101-105-117-123-131-135-141- 143-145-149-157-161-165-167-171-183-201-203-100640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CLOUD FINNEY GREELEY HAMILTON HODGEMAN JEWELL KEARNY LANE LINCOLN MARSHALL MITCHELL NEMAHA NESS OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT SMITH Read more

MD 1918 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1918 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Areas affected...Portions of east-central Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581... Valid 100313Z - 100515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581 continues. SUMMARY...Training supercells will continue to pose a severe hail threat for the next couple of hours. WW 581 has been extended in time to address this concern. DISCUSSION...Training supercells continue to develop to the east/southeast of the Colorado Springs, CO area to the north of a composite outflow boundary/cold front. VWP data from KPUX show pronounced veering in the lowest 3 km, suggesting that ascent over the boundary remains strong and should continue to support thunderstorm development in the near term (next 1-2 hours) before the boundary becomes increasingly displaced from the better buoyancy in place over east-central CO. 0-6 km BWD values on the order of 45-50 knots will continue to promote supercells with an attendant threat for large hail, possibly as large as 1.5 to 2 inches in diameter. Downstream propagation eastward is possible as continued training promotes storm interactions/upscale growth into a higher MLCAPE environment to the east, but exact convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain beyond the next couple of hours. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 38080320 38160441 38350469 38640481 38860476 39010460 39060419 38970311 38880282 38730269 38540260 38420260 38210268 38090289 38080320 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1917 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581...582... FOR NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1917 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Areas affected...Northern Kansas into southern Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581...582... Valid 100253Z - 100500Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581, 582 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for 60-80 mph winds may increase over the next few hours across north-central Kansas and south-central Nebraska. DISCUSSION...KGLD reflectivity/velocity imagery continues to show gradual upscale growth of a couple of convective clusters across northwest KS and far southwest NE. This activity has a recent history of producing 60-70 mph gusts, and while cold pool consolidation/organization remains a slow process, MRMS imagery continues to show periodic upticks in convective intensity. This trend should continue as this activity spreads east into a more buoyant environment downstream where MLCAPE remains between 3000-4000 J/kg. Recent CAM solutions appear to be capturing recent convective trends well and support this idea of further intensification over the next 2-3 hours. These solutions also hint at the potential for 60-80 mph winds, which appears reasonable based on environmental buoyancy and wind shear (effective bulk shear on the order of 40 knots). It remains uncertain how widespread such winds will be given the slow upscale growth, but narrow corridors of severe winds appear probable. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39500150 39760088 40519998 40589976 40579735 40319715 39989728 39679749 39429778 39269813 39069882 39070064 39130121 39180154 39310160 39500150 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0583 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...DDC...GLD...GID...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-100540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE KSC027-029-051-055-063-065-071-075-083-089-093-101-105-117-123- 131-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-157-161-163-165-167-171-183-195- 201-203-100540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CLOUD ELLIS FINNEY GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY HAMILTON HODGEMAN JEWELL KEARNY LANE LINCOLN MARSHALL MITCHELL NEMAHA NESS NORTON OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT SMITH Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...DDC...GLD...GID...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-100440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE KSC027-029-051-055-063-065-071-075-083-089-093-101-105-117-123- 131-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-157-161-163-165-167-171-183-195- 201-203-100440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CLOUD ELLIS FINNEY GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY HAMILTON HODGEMAN JEWELL KEARNY LANE LINCOLN MARSHALL MITCHELL NEMAHA NESS NORTON OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT SMITH Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE COS TO 20 SW ITR. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-041-061-073-100440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO KIOWA LINCOLN KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC087-145-100440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE COS TO 20 SW ITR. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-041-061-073-100440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO KIOWA LINCOLN KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC087-145-100440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE COS TO 20 SW ITR. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-041-061-073-100440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO KIOWA LINCOLN KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC087-145-100440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE COS TO 20 SW ITR. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-041-061-073-100440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO KIOWA LINCOLN KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC087-145-100440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DEN TO 40 N LIC TO 35 NW IML TO 40 ENE AIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916 ..MOORE..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-039-041-061-063-073-095-121-125-100240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN PHILLIPS WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC005-009-017-029-057-063-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-115-117- 135-145-149-171-100240- Read more