Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more