Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0570 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0570 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1881 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KS...FAR SOUTHEAST CO...THE OK PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1881 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0621 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southwest KS...far southeast CO...the OK Panhandle...northern TX Panhandle...and northwest OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569... Valid 032321Z - 040045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk, including the potential for very large hail and severe wind gusts, will continue spreading southward across southwest KS in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569. A downstream watch should eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from GLD/DDC depicts a complex convective evolution across southwest KS this evening. Along the western KS/eastern CO border, a long-lived discrete supercell is tracking southward, which will continue to pose a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and brief tornadoes (given a strong/established mesocyclone and unstable boundary layer). To its east, an earlier long-lived supercell is evolving into a large cluster of storms, with chaotic storm splits and new updrafts developing along outflow. A long/straight hodograph (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts. However, the recent signs of upscale growth into a large cluster may tend to favor an increasing risk of severe wind gusts with time/southward extent. In general, this activity will continue spreading southward across southwest KS (in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569), and eventually into the OK/TX Panhandles and possibly northwest OK. While lingering inhibition associated with previous convective overturning does cast some uncertainty on the severe risk with southward extent, the established storms and favorable deep-layer shear should support a continued risk. Therefore, a downstream watch should eventually be needed. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 37970231 38390189 38580025 38399945 38009920 37209920 36649950 36270003 36150100 36230200 36590247 37130254 37970231 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0569 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE LAA TO 40 S RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881 ..WEINMAN..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-119-129-175-187-189- 040140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY MEADE MORTON SEWARD STANTON STEVENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0569 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE LAA TO 40 S RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881 ..WEINMAN..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-119-129-175-187-189- 040140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY MEADE MORTON SEWARD STANTON STEVENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0569 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE LAA TO 40 S RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881 ..WEINMAN..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-119-129-175-187-189- 040140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY MEADE MORTON SEWARD STANTON STEVENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0569 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE LAA TO 40 S RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881 ..WEINMAN..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-119-129-175-187-189- 040140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY MEADE MORTON SEWARD STANTON STEVENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0569 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE LAA TO 40 S RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881 ..WEINMAN..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-119-129-175-187-189- 040140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY MEADE MORTON SEWARD STANTON STEVENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 569 SEVERE TSTM KS 032140Z - 040500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Kansas * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Ongoing supercells should continue to track southward late this afternoon and evening across parts of western Kansas. Scattered large to isolated very large hail will be possible with these supercells given a rather favorable environment. Peak hailstone diameters may reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter on an isolated basis. Occasional severe/damaging winds may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of Garden City KS to 60 miles south of Garden City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 36020. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1881 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KS...FAR SOUTHEAST CO...THE OK PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1881 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0621 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southwest KS...far southeast CO...the OK Panhandle...northern TX Panhandle...and northwest OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569... Valid 032321Z - 040045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk, including the potential for very large hail and severe wind gusts, will continue spreading southward across southwest KS in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569. A downstream watch should eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from GLD/DDC depicts a complex convective evolution across southwest KS this evening. Along the western KS/eastern CO border, a long-lived discrete supercell is tracking southward, which will continue to pose a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and brief tornadoes (given a strong/established mesocyclone and unstable boundary layer). To its east, an earlier long-lived supercell is evolving into a large cluster of storms, with chaotic storm splits and new updrafts developing along outflow. A long/straight hodograph (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts. However, the recent signs of upscale growth into a large cluster may tend to favor an increasing risk of severe wind gusts with time/southward extent. In general, this activity will continue spreading southward across southwest KS (in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569), and eventually into the OK/TX Panhandles and possibly northwest OK. While lingering inhibition associated with previous convective overturning does cast some uncertainty on the severe risk with southward extent, the established storms and favorable deep-layer shear should support a continued risk. Therefore, a downstream watch should eventually be needed. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 37970231 38390189 38580025 38399945 38009920 37209920 36649950 36270003 36150100 36230200 36590247 37130254 37970231 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 1880 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL SD...AND FAR NORTHEAST CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1880 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western/central NE...far south-central SD...and far northeast CO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032144Z - 032345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible for the next several hours. A watch issuance is not currently expected, though convective trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has developed along/immediately ahead of a weak surface boundary/wind shift in western/central NE, with additional cells developing farther north along the boundary into far south-central SD. Diurnal heating/destabilization of a moist boundary layer (around middle 60s dewpoints) and steep midlevel lapse rates have contributed to moderate surface-based instability. Given the mesoscale focus for storms and favorable buoyancy, sporadic severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible with storms evolving along/south of the boundary. However, with weak large-scale forcing for ascent and only modest deep-layer flow/shear (around 25 kt of 0-6 km shear per LNX VWP), the overall severe threat should remain fairly disorganized/sporadic. Therefore, a watch issuance is not currently expected, though convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41450232 41880160 42150104 42530042 43509962 43709932 43609872 43159839 42679852 41639911 41109971 40490070 40300186 40400262 40770312 41110315 41450232 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0569 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 569 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881 ..WEINMAN..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-055-057-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-119-129-135-171- 175-187-189-203-040040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE MEADE MORTON NESS SCOTT SEWARD STANTON STEVENS WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 569 SEVERE TSTM KS 032140Z - 040500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Kansas * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Ongoing supercells should continue to track southward late this afternoon and evening across parts of western Kansas. Scattered large to isolated very large hail will be possible with these supercells given a rather favorable environment. Peak hailstone diameters may reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter on an isolated basis. Occasional severe/damaging winds may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of Garden City KS to 60 miles south of Garden City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 36020. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1879 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1879 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Areas affected...western KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032049Z - 032245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will track south/southeast across western Kansas through early evening. Large hail and strong gusts are possible with the strongest storms. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed this afternoon along the strong moisture gradient across northwest KS. Steep midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km are aiding in moderate to strong destabilization with MLCAPE values near 2000-2500 J/kg. While vertical shear is somewhat modest across northwest KS, these storms will encounter stronger effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt as they track south. These storms will also move into the more moist boundary layer. As a result, additional convection or intensification is possible with time and southward extent. The favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will support isolated large hail. Additionally, some guidance suggests clustering could occur toward evening. If this scenario occurs, damaging wind potential could increase as well. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. ..Leitman/Smith.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 36999994 36940025 36970083 37050120 37320173 37970203 39260205 39480176 39480093 39430032 38649987 37519966 37119976 36999994 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1878 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1878 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032036Z - 032230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will develop southeast from northeast New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles the next few hours. A few instances of large hail and strong/severe gusts are possible. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing this afternoon within low-level convergence/upslope. Strong heating has allowed temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s F behind morning convection and outflow. South/southeasterly low-level winds have maintained mid-60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This is fostering moderate destabilization, with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE noted in 20z mesoanalysis. Vertically veering winds profiles, with increasing northwesterly flow aloft is contributing to fairly robust shear, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kts apparent in regional VWP and mesoanalysis data. This environment will support organized cells capable of producing large hail and strong/severe gusts. Convective coverage remains uncertain, but could increase with southward extent toward evening. This area is being monitored for possible severe thunderstorm watch issuance. ..Leitman/Smith.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 36710365 36850327 36890267 36840208 36510162 35960137 35480144 34880158 34590192 34330246 34500305 34900334 36290379 36710365 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more