Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in the Northwest during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains... A decaying MCS is currently moving through the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Expectation is for this system to continue south-southeastward for the next several hours while gradually weakening. Cool outflow and cloud cover associated with this system will have an impact on the severe potential across the region today, leading to above-average uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution. The overall environment from the TX Panhandle southward through the South Plains and eastward into western OK and northwest TX will be characterized by moderate northwesterly flow aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and afternoon surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. These conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy across much of the region, but areas under the influence of the MCS's outflow and/or cloud cover will likely remain capped due to limited/filtered diurnal heating. Current expectation is for the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to remain south of the outflow, allowing for strong heating and airmass destabilization. The outflow is expected to act as the primary impetus for convective initiation across the region this afternoon. Additional areas of low-level convergence near a weak surface low over southeast NM and the weak lee troughing extending from southeast CO across eastern NM could result in a few storms as well. Low-level easterly/southeasterly flow veering to northwesterly in the mid levels will result in moderate vertical shear, with the overall wind profile quite supportive for large hail. As such, there is a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail. With time, some upscale growth into one or more linear clusters with an increased risk for damaging gusts is possible. ...Central High Plains... Early morning surface analysis placed a broad area of low pressure from northeast CO into southwest SD. A low is expected develop within this region by the early afternoon, and low-level convergence in the vicinity of this low will likely result in thunderstorm initiation. Late afternoon initiation is possible along the weak lee trough across eastern WY as well. Moderate buoyancy will support strong updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any forward-propagating clusters that can develop. ...Northwest... Shortwave trough currently off the northern CA coast is forecast to continue northeastward today, with lift associated with this system impinging on the region by the early afternoon. Increasing mid-level moisture (already apparent on the 12Z BOI sounding) will help support moderate buoyancy and the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow ahead of the shortwave will increase deep-layer shear to 30-40 kt, supporting some storm organization. Steep lapse rates with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for high-based semi-organized clusters will favor strong downdrafts capable of occasional severe gusts with the stronger storms. Small hail will also be possible with any more persistent clusters or weak supercell structures despite the limited buoyancy. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in the Northwest during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains... A decaying MCS is currently moving through the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Expectation is for this system to continue south-southeastward for the next several hours while gradually weakening. Cool outflow and cloud cover associated with this system will have an impact on the severe potential across the region today, leading to above-average uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution. The overall environment from the TX Panhandle southward through the South Plains and eastward into western OK and northwest TX will be characterized by moderate northwesterly flow aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and afternoon surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. These conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy across much of the region, but areas under the influence of the MCS's outflow and/or cloud cover will likely remain capped due to limited/filtered diurnal heating. Current expectation is for the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to remain south of the outflow, allowing for strong heating and airmass destabilization. The outflow is expected to act as the primary impetus for convective initiation across the region this afternoon. Additional areas of low-level convergence near a weak surface low over southeast NM and the weak lee troughing extending from southeast CO across eastern NM could result in a few storms as well. Low-level easterly/southeasterly flow veering to northwesterly in the mid levels will result in moderate vertical shear, with the overall wind profile quite supportive for large hail. As such, there is a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail. With time, some upscale growth into one or more linear clusters with an increased risk for damaging gusts is possible. ...Central High Plains... Early morning surface analysis placed a broad area of low pressure from northeast CO into southwest SD. A low is expected develop within this region by the early afternoon, and low-level convergence in the vicinity of this low will likely result in thunderstorm initiation. Late afternoon initiation is possible along the weak lee trough across eastern WY as well. Moderate buoyancy will support strong updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any forward-propagating clusters that can develop. ...Northwest... Shortwave trough currently off the northern CA coast is forecast to continue northeastward today, with lift associated with this system impinging on the region by the early afternoon. Increasing mid-level moisture (already apparent on the 12Z BOI sounding) will help support moderate buoyancy and the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow ahead of the shortwave will increase deep-layer shear to 30-40 kt, supporting some storm organization. Steep lapse rates with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for high-based semi-organized clusters will favor strong downdrafts capable of occasional severe gusts with the stronger storms. Small hail will also be possible with any more persistent clusters or weak supercell structures despite the limited buoyancy. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in the Northwest during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains... A decaying MCS is currently moving through the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Expectation is for this system to continue south-southeastward for the next several hours while gradually weakening. Cool outflow and cloud cover associated with this system will have an impact on the severe potential across the region today, leading to above-average uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution. The overall environment from the TX Panhandle southward through the South Plains and eastward into western OK and northwest TX will be characterized by moderate northwesterly flow aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and afternoon surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. These conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy across much of the region, but areas under the influence of the MCS's outflow and/or cloud cover will likely remain capped due to limited/filtered diurnal heating. Current expectation is for the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to remain south of the outflow, allowing for strong heating and airmass destabilization. The outflow is expected to act as the primary impetus for convective initiation across the region this afternoon. Additional areas of low-level convergence near a weak surface low over southeast NM and the weak lee troughing extending from southeast CO across eastern NM could result in a few storms as well. Low-level easterly/southeasterly flow veering to northwesterly in the mid levels will result in moderate vertical shear, with the overall wind profile quite supportive for large hail. As such, there is a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail. With time, some upscale growth into one or more linear clusters with an increased risk for damaging gusts is possible. ...Central High Plains... Early morning surface analysis placed a broad area of low pressure from northeast CO into southwest SD. A low is expected develop within this region by the early afternoon, and low-level convergence in the vicinity of this low will likely result in thunderstorm initiation. Late afternoon initiation is possible along the weak lee trough across eastern WY as well. Moderate buoyancy will support strong updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any forward-propagating clusters that can develop. ...Northwest... Shortwave trough currently off the northern CA coast is forecast to continue northeastward today, with lift associated with this system impinging on the region by the early afternoon. Increasing mid-level moisture (already apparent on the 12Z BOI sounding) will help support moderate buoyancy and the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow ahead of the shortwave will increase deep-layer shear to 30-40 kt, supporting some storm organization. Steep lapse rates with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for high-based semi-organized clusters will favor strong downdrafts capable of occasional severe gusts with the stronger storms. Small hail will also be possible with any more persistent clusters or weak supercell structures despite the limited buoyancy. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in the Northwest during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains... A decaying MCS is currently moving through the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Expectation is for this system to continue south-southeastward for the next several hours while gradually weakening. Cool outflow and cloud cover associated with this system will have an impact on the severe potential across the region today, leading to above-average uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution. The overall environment from the TX Panhandle southward through the South Plains and eastward into western OK and northwest TX will be characterized by moderate northwesterly flow aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and afternoon surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. These conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy across much of the region, but areas under the influence of the MCS's outflow and/or cloud cover will likely remain capped due to limited/filtered diurnal heating. Current expectation is for the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to remain south of the outflow, allowing for strong heating and airmass destabilization. The outflow is expected to act as the primary impetus for convective initiation across the region this afternoon. Additional areas of low-level convergence near a weak surface low over southeast NM and the weak lee troughing extending from southeast CO across eastern NM could result in a few storms as well. Low-level easterly/southeasterly flow veering to northwesterly in the mid levels will result in moderate vertical shear, with the overall wind profile quite supportive for large hail. As such, there is a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail. With time, some upscale growth into one or more linear clusters with an increased risk for damaging gusts is possible. ...Central High Plains... Early morning surface analysis placed a broad area of low pressure from northeast CO into southwest SD. A low is expected develop within this region by the early afternoon, and low-level convergence in the vicinity of this low will likely result in thunderstorm initiation. Late afternoon initiation is possible along the weak lee trough across eastern WY as well. Moderate buoyancy will support strong updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any forward-propagating clusters that can develop. ...Northwest... Shortwave trough currently off the northern CA coast is forecast to continue northeastward today, with lift associated with this system impinging on the region by the early afternoon. Increasing mid-level moisture (already apparent on the 12Z BOI sounding) will help support moderate buoyancy and the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow ahead of the shortwave will increase deep-layer shear to 30-40 kt, supporting some storm organization. Steep lapse rates with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for high-based semi-organized clusters will favor strong downdrafts capable of occasional severe gusts with the stronger storms. Small hail will also be possible with any more persistent clusters or weak supercell structures despite the limited buoyancy. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/03/2025 Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW AMA TO 15 ESE AMA TO 55 WNW CSM TO 35 N CSM. ..BENTLEY..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-031140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM TXC011-087-129-179-381-483-031140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY RANDALL WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 568 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 030435Z - 031100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The Oklahoma Panhandle and Western Oklahoma The Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1135 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Supercells should continue to pose a threat for isolated large to very large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter through the early morning hours. Scattered severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph may also occur with any clusters that can form and spread southeastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of Dalhart TX to 110 miles east northeast of Borger TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 567... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1876 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568... FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1876 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568... Valid 030738Z - 030915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568 continues. SUMMARY...A few severe storms are likely to persist through the early morning. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms continues southeastward this morning across the Texas Panhandle. The western storm has recently strengthened with a tightening reflectivity gradient on the leading edge of the supercell. This storm will likely have the greatest severe weather threat as it continues southeast over the next 1 to 2 hours. An additional stronger storm across Lipscomb county will move southeast into far western Oklahoma. However, it will also move into progressively less unstable air as it move east and therefore, its severe potential is not expected to persist as long as the western storm. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat from both storms. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35560231 36280215 36540098 36510073 36600043 36549993 36319970 35879947 35429935 35169946 35009980 34910049 34930130 34990205 35070221 35560231 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE TCC TO 35 SSE DHT TO BGD TO 25 ENE BGD TO 50 ENE BGD TO 65 NW CSM TO 55 NW CSM TO 50 NNW CSM TO 50 SSW AVK. ..BENTLEY..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-129-031040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM ROGER MILLS TXC011-065-087-117-129-179-211-359-375-381-393-483-031040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY HEMPHILL OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW DHT TO 30 ESE DHT TO 25 N BGD TO 45 NE BGD TO 65 ENE BGD TO 75 NNW CSM TO 35 WSW AVK. ..BENTLEY..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-045-129-030940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM ELLIS ROGER MILLS TXC011-065-087-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-359-375- 381-393-483-030940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more