Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies on Tuesday, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., where dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas northward into the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm are expected to form ahead of the trough across the northern Plains, with more isolated development occurring southward into the central High Plains. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon near the instability axis from western Nebraska into western South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. In addition, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to be near 30 degrees F. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in high-based cells with potential for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly with cells that form near areas with the strongest instability. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies on Tuesday, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., where dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas northward into the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm are expected to form ahead of the trough across the northern Plains, with more isolated development occurring southward into the central High Plains. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon near the instability axis from western Nebraska into western South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. In addition, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to be near 30 degrees F. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in high-based cells with potential for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly with cells that form near areas with the strongest instability. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies on Tuesday, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., where dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas northward into the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm are expected to form ahead of the trough across the northern Plains, with more isolated development occurring southward into the central High Plains. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon near the instability axis from western Nebraska into western South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. In addition, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to be near 30 degrees F. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in high-based cells with potential for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly with cells that form near areas with the strongest instability. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies on Tuesday, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., where dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas northward into the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm are expected to form ahead of the trough across the northern Plains, with more isolated development occurring southward into the central High Plains. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon near the instability axis from western Nebraska into western South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. In addition, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to be near 30 degrees F. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in high-based cells with potential for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly with cells that form near areas with the strongest instability. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies on Tuesday, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., where dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas northward into the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm are expected to form ahead of the trough across the northern Plains, with more isolated development occurring southward into the central High Plains. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon near the instability axis from western Nebraska into western South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. In addition, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to be near 30 degrees F. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in high-based cells with potential for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly with cells that form near areas with the strongest instability. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies on Tuesday, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., where dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas northward into the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm are expected to form ahead of the trough across the northern Plains, with more isolated development occurring southward into the central High Plains. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon near the instability axis from western Nebraska into western South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. In addition, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to be near 30 degrees F. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in high-based cells with potential for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly with cells that form near areas with the strongest instability. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies on Tuesday, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., where dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas northward into the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm are expected to form ahead of the trough across the northern Plains, with more isolated development occurring southward into the central High Plains. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon near the instability axis from western Nebraska into western South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. In addition, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to be near 30 degrees F. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in high-based cells with potential for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly with cells that form near areas with the strongest instability. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies on Tuesday, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., where dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas northward into the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm are expected to form ahead of the trough across the northern Plains, with more isolated development occurring southward into the central High Plains. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon near the instability axis from western Nebraska into western South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. In addition, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to be near 30 degrees F. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in high-based cells with potential for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly with cells that form near areas with the strongest instability. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies on Tuesday, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., where dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas northward into the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm are expected to form ahead of the trough across the northern Plains, with more isolated development occurring southward into the central High Plains. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon near the instability axis from western Nebraska into western South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. In addition, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to be near 30 degrees F. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in high-based cells with potential for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly with cells that form near areas with the strongest instability. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies on Tuesday, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., where dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas northward into the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm are expected to form ahead of the trough across the northern Plains, with more isolated development occurring southward into the central High Plains. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon near the instability axis from western Nebraska into western South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. In addition, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to be near 30 degrees F. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in high-based cells with potential for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly with cells that form near areas with the strongest instability. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH INTO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ..Weinman.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH INTO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ..Weinman.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more