Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the Southwest U.S. on Day 3/Monday into the Southern Plains Day 5/Wednesday. Stronger mid-level winds ahead of the trough along with downslope enhancement/drying off the higher terrain of the Northern Mexican Plateau is expected to linger over portions of Western Texas and southeastern New Mexico from Day 3/Monday, potentially into Day 5/Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities were maintained for Day 3/Monday and added for Day 4/Tuesday for this area. Critical probabilities were not introduced for Day 5/Wednesday as timing and southern extent of cold front intrusion into eastern New Mexico and far Western Texas remains uncertain. Ensemble model guidance shows fairly good member agreement in bringing another long-wave trough into the Western U.S. by Days 6-8, which could bring some needed precipitation to portions of the Desert Southwest. ...Far Northern Plains... Fire weather threat could emerge across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota by Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday. An upper-level ridge building over the western U.S. interior late next week should bring well above normal temperatures to much of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, aiding in curing/drying fuels. However, upper and mid-level pattern does not appear conducive for strong downsloping events at this time and contingent on areas escaping appreciable rainfall in the short term. ...Florida Peninsula... A very dry fuelscape across the Florida Peninsula is expected to receive some relief by Day 3/Monday as a cold front and accompanying rainfall impact the state. Some areas could remain dry but winds and relative humidity are not expected to align for critical fire weather conditions by midweek (Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday) with more opportunities for precipitation late week. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the Southwest U.S. on Day 3/Monday into the Southern Plains Day 5/Wednesday. Stronger mid-level winds ahead of the trough along with downslope enhancement/drying off the higher terrain of the Northern Mexican Plateau is expected to linger over portions of Western Texas and southeastern New Mexico from Day 3/Monday, potentially into Day 5/Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities were maintained for Day 3/Monday and added for Day 4/Tuesday for this area. Critical probabilities were not introduced for Day 5/Wednesday as timing and southern extent of cold front intrusion into eastern New Mexico and far Western Texas remains uncertain. Ensemble model guidance shows fairly good member agreement in bringing another long-wave trough into the Western U.S. by Days 6-8, which could bring some needed precipitation to portions of the Desert Southwest. ...Far Northern Plains... Fire weather threat could emerge across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota by Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday. An upper-level ridge building over the western U.S. interior late next week should bring well above normal temperatures to much of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, aiding in curing/drying fuels. However, upper and mid-level pattern does not appear conducive for strong downsloping events at this time and contingent on areas escaping appreciable rainfall in the short term. ...Florida Peninsula... A very dry fuelscape across the Florida Peninsula is expected to receive some relief by Day 3/Monday as a cold front and accompanying rainfall impact the state. Some areas could remain dry but winds and relative humidity are not expected to align for critical fire weather conditions by midweek (Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday) with more opportunities for precipitation late week. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the Southwest U.S. on Day 3/Monday into the Southern Plains Day 5/Wednesday. Stronger mid-level winds ahead of the trough along with downslope enhancement/drying off the higher terrain of the Northern Mexican Plateau is expected to linger over portions of Western Texas and southeastern New Mexico from Day 3/Monday, potentially into Day 5/Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities were maintained for Day 3/Monday and added for Day 4/Tuesday for this area. Critical probabilities were not introduced for Day 5/Wednesday as timing and southern extent of cold front intrusion into eastern New Mexico and far Western Texas remains uncertain. Ensemble model guidance shows fairly good member agreement in bringing another long-wave trough into the Western U.S. by Days 6-8, which could bring some needed precipitation to portions of the Desert Southwest. ...Far Northern Plains... Fire weather threat could emerge across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota by Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday. An upper-level ridge building over the western U.S. interior late next week should bring well above normal temperatures to much of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, aiding in curing/drying fuels. However, upper and mid-level pattern does not appear conducive for strong downsloping events at this time and contingent on areas escaping appreciable rainfall in the short term. ...Florida Peninsula... A very dry fuelscape across the Florida Peninsula is expected to receive some relief by Day 3/Monday as a cold front and accompanying rainfall impact the state. Some areas could remain dry but winds and relative humidity are not expected to align for critical fire weather conditions by midweek (Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday) with more opportunities for precipitation late week. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0176 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0176 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0570 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SERN OK...NERN TX...SWRN AR...NWRN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...parts of sern OK...nern TX...swrn AR...nwrn LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261950Z - 262145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm development is likely to continue to intensify through 4-6 PM CDT, including a couple of supercells posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado or two. DISCUSSION...The early day convective cluster has generally weakened, with at least a couple of remnant mesoscale circulations continuing to migrate northeastward and eastward into/across parts of south central Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. The Rapid Refresh indicates that there is a lingering pocket of relatively cold mid-level air (-12 to -13C around 500 mb), associated with a low-amplitude short wave perturbation overspreading the Red River Valley vicinity, within moderate westerly mid/upper flow. It appears that this is supporting an increase in thunderstorm development west-northwest of Durant toward the Ark-La-Tex vicinity. The more recent convection is focused along a diffuse near surface baroclinic zone within weak surface troughing, where inflow emanating from a seasonably moist boundary layer characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg seems likely to support further intensification into late afternoon. This may include supercell structures with potential to produce severe hail. Low-level hodographs are generally forecast to remain modest, but a brief tornado might not be out of the question. ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35039549 34629405 33879322 32719385 33069486 33929644 34409655 35039549 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0569 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS-PECOS
Mesoscale Discussion 0569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...Portions of eastern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261928Z - 262130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail and perhaps a tornado or two are possible with supercells near an outflow boundary this afternoon/evening. A watch may eventually be needed. Convective trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...With continuing convection within Oklahoma and western North Texas, outflow has continued to push west/southwestward into eastern New Mexico and through the South Plains. While a few towering cumulus have been observed along this outflow boundary during the afternoon, residence time within the zone of ascent has been too short to promote deep convection. Farther to the west, southeasterly winds have pushed mid/upper 50s F dewpoints into the southern Rockies. Convection has been slowly deepening per day cloud phase imagery. The most likely scenario is for a few storms to develop within the next 2-3 hours and propagate east-southeastward as the outflow boundary pushes up against the terrain. With 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE near and just behind the outflow boundary (where it has remained cloud free) and 30-40 kts of effective shear across the boundary, supercells would likely be the dominant storm mode. Steep mid-level lapse rates sampled in this mornings observed soundings in the region suggest large to very-large hail would be possible along with isolated severe gusts. The tornado threat is somewhat less certain given what will at least initially be weak low-level winds. However, backed surface winds along/near the outflow boundary will provide greater SRH for storms that favorably interact with it. There will be a modest increase in the low-level jet this evening, but, given the more stable conditions with eastward extent, the spatial window for greater tornado potential appears limited/conditional. Convective trends will continue to be monitored. A watch may eventually be needed, but timing remains uncertain. ..Wendt/Smith.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 34320539 34990547 35180540 35430514 35450483 35380461 34820408 34210380 33560359 32970322 32090328 31670392 31970455 33240527 33900547 34320539 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0175 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0175 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0175 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0175 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 26 20:01:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0568 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA ...CNTRL AND SRN MD...DE
Mesoscale Discussion 0568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...parts of cntrl/ern VA ...cntrl and srn MD...DE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261805Z - 262000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may continue to gradually develop through 3-5 PM EDT, with some accompanied by small hail and a few strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts. DISCUSSION...The initiation of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development appears underway to the east of the Blue Ridge, where low-level lapse rates are steepening most substantively in response to insolation and mixing, in the wake of mid/high cloudiness and light rain still overspreading northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas. Through 19-21Z, the Rapid Refresh suggests that continued boundary-layer warming may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE as high as 1000 J/kg, within pre-frontal surface troughing across central Virginia, northeastward toward the Delmarva. Mid/upper-level lapse rates are likely to remain weak, as stronger cooling aloft lags to the northwest of the region. But, with some strengthening of westerly mid-level wind fields (to 30-35 kt around 500 mb), the environment may become conducive to small multi-cell clusters, accompanied by a few potentially damaging surface gusts which could approach severe limits. ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37597908 38277867 39457706 39687595 39527547 38907501 38237530 37787597 37497656 37077765 37047899 37597908 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more