Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong (~75 knot) mid-level jet streak will advance from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen across the Upper Midwest with an eastward advancing dryline to its south and a cold front to the west-southwest. A warm front will extend east of this surface low and move rapidly north through the day, spreading mid 60s dewpoints across much of the Upper Midwest. ...MN/IA/WI... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period north of a warm front across Minnesota and Wisconsin amid moderate isentropic ascent. Isolated large hail will be possible from these storms. A surface low will be located somewhere near eastern South Dakota and will start to advance east during the morning. This surface low is expected to deepen somewhat through the day (perhaps to the low 990s mb range) as it moves toward the Twin Cities. There is a consistent signal for thunderstorms to develop along the cold front as it intersects the surface low/dryline in west-central Minnesota Monday afternoon. After some initial hail threat, these storms will likely become quickly linear along the front with an increasing severe wind threat. Strong low-level shear will also favor some line-embedded tornadoes, particularly if there area any areas within the line which become more favorably oriented to the low-level shear vector. Additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the dryline from southern Minnesota to west-central Iowa during the afternoon on Monday. 00Z CAM guidance is not overly bullish with convective development south of the MN/IA border, likely due to relatively weak convergence along the dryline in western Iowa from most high resolution guidance. However, the lack of convection from much of the guidance does not seem realistic considering the overall pattern. ECMWF/GFS/NAM are fairly consistent with a deepening surface low across Minnesota and moderate to strong height falls across the dryline. The southern extent of the previous Day 3 moderate risk corresponds well to the southern extent of the more favorable height falls, and convective precipitation signal from the ECMWF/GFS. Therefore, no adjustments to the southern extent of the moderate risk were deemed necessary. However the moderate risk was expanded slightly westward to account for the expectation for earlier convective initiation (19-21Z) than shown by most guidance. Given very strong effective shear and over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, expect any supercells which develop to become quickly severe with a threat for all severe weather hazards. As the surface low across Minnesota deepens the low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. This will elongate low-level hodographs and support an increasing tornado threat during the evening. STP values of 3 to 5 are common across much of the warm sector ahead of anticipated storms with some guidance indicating values of 7 to 10. Therefore, any mature, discrete supercells which can form and maintain within the open warm sector on Monday late afternoon/evening will pose a threat for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Eastern Kansas and northern Missouri to West Texas... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector could result in isolated to scattered supercell development Monday afternoon. A secondary area of higher severe weather probabilities may exist from portions of West Texas into southwest Oklahoma where the nocturnally strengthening low-level jet could support scattered supercell development Monday evening. However, weak height rises cast some doubt on storm coverage during the evening, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong (~75 knot) mid-level jet streak will advance from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen across the Upper Midwest with an eastward advancing dryline to its south and a cold front to the west-southwest. A warm front will extend east of this surface low and move rapidly north through the day, spreading mid 60s dewpoints across much of the Upper Midwest. ...MN/IA/WI... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period north of a warm front across Minnesota and Wisconsin amid moderate isentropic ascent. Isolated large hail will be possible from these storms. A surface low will be located somewhere near eastern South Dakota and will start to advance east during the morning. This surface low is expected to deepen somewhat through the day (perhaps to the low 990s mb range) as it moves toward the Twin Cities. There is a consistent signal for thunderstorms to develop along the cold front as it intersects the surface low/dryline in west-central Minnesota Monday afternoon. After some initial hail threat, these storms will likely become quickly linear along the front with an increasing severe wind threat. Strong low-level shear will also favor some line-embedded tornadoes, particularly if there area any areas within the line which become more favorably oriented to the low-level shear vector. Additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the dryline from southern Minnesota to west-central Iowa during the afternoon on Monday. 00Z CAM guidance is not overly bullish with convective development south of the MN/IA border, likely due to relatively weak convergence along the dryline in western Iowa from most high resolution guidance. However, the lack of convection from much of the guidance does not seem realistic considering the overall pattern. ECMWF/GFS/NAM are fairly consistent with a deepening surface low across Minnesota and moderate to strong height falls across the dryline. The southern extent of the previous Day 3 moderate risk corresponds well to the southern extent of the more favorable height falls, and convective precipitation signal from the ECMWF/GFS. Therefore, no adjustments to the southern extent of the moderate risk were deemed necessary. However the moderate risk was expanded slightly westward to account for the expectation for earlier convective initiation (19-21Z) than shown by most guidance. Given very strong effective shear and over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, expect any supercells which develop to become quickly severe with a threat for all severe weather hazards. As the surface low across Minnesota deepens the low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. This will elongate low-level hodographs and support an increasing tornado threat during the evening. STP values of 3 to 5 are common across much of the warm sector ahead of anticipated storms with some guidance indicating values of 7 to 10. Therefore, any mature, discrete supercells which can form and maintain within the open warm sector on Monday late afternoon/evening will pose a threat for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Eastern Kansas and northern Missouri to West Texas... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector could result in isolated to scattered supercell development Monday afternoon. A secondary area of higher severe weather probabilities may exist from portions of West Texas into southwest Oklahoma where the nocturnally strengthening low-level jet could support scattered supercell development Monday evening. However, weak height rises cast some doubt on storm coverage during the evening, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong (~75 knot) mid-level jet streak will advance from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen across the Upper Midwest with an eastward advancing dryline to its south and a cold front to the west-southwest. A warm front will extend east of this surface low and move rapidly north through the day, spreading mid 60s dewpoints across much of the Upper Midwest. ...MN/IA/WI... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period north of a warm front across Minnesota and Wisconsin amid moderate isentropic ascent. Isolated large hail will be possible from these storms. A surface low will be located somewhere near eastern South Dakota and will start to advance east during the morning. This surface low is expected to deepen somewhat through the day (perhaps to the low 990s mb range) as it moves toward the Twin Cities. There is a consistent signal for thunderstorms to develop along the cold front as it intersects the surface low/dryline in west-central Minnesota Monday afternoon. After some initial hail threat, these storms will likely become quickly linear along the front with an increasing severe wind threat. Strong low-level shear will also favor some line-embedded tornadoes, particularly if there area any areas within the line which become more favorably oriented to the low-level shear vector. Additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the dryline from southern Minnesota to west-central Iowa during the afternoon on Monday. 00Z CAM guidance is not overly bullish with convective development south of the MN/IA border, likely due to relatively weak convergence along the dryline in western Iowa from most high resolution guidance. However, the lack of convection from much of the guidance does not seem realistic considering the overall pattern. ECMWF/GFS/NAM are fairly consistent with a deepening surface low across Minnesota and moderate to strong height falls across the dryline. The southern extent of the previous Day 3 moderate risk corresponds well to the southern extent of the more favorable height falls, and convective precipitation signal from the ECMWF/GFS. Therefore, no adjustments to the southern extent of the moderate risk were deemed necessary. However the moderate risk was expanded slightly westward to account for the expectation for earlier convective initiation (19-21Z) than shown by most guidance. Given very strong effective shear and over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, expect any supercells which develop to become quickly severe with a threat for all severe weather hazards. As the surface low across Minnesota deepens the low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. This will elongate low-level hodographs and support an increasing tornado threat during the evening. STP values of 3 to 5 are common across much of the warm sector ahead of anticipated storms with some guidance indicating values of 7 to 10. Therefore, any mature, discrete supercells which can form and maintain within the open warm sector on Monday late afternoon/evening will pose a threat for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Eastern Kansas and northern Missouri to West Texas... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector could result in isolated to scattered supercell development Monday afternoon. A secondary area of higher severe weather probabilities may exist from portions of West Texas into southwest Oklahoma where the nocturnally strengthening low-level jet could support scattered supercell development Monday evening. However, weak height rises cast some doubt on storm coverage during the evening, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong (~75 knot) mid-level jet streak will advance from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen across the Upper Midwest with an eastward advancing dryline to its south and a cold front to the west-southwest. A warm front will extend east of this surface low and move rapidly north through the day, spreading mid 60s dewpoints across much of the Upper Midwest. ...MN/IA/WI... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period north of a warm front across Minnesota and Wisconsin amid moderate isentropic ascent. Isolated large hail will be possible from these storms. A surface low will be located somewhere near eastern South Dakota and will start to advance east during the morning. This surface low is expected to deepen somewhat through the day (perhaps to the low 990s mb range) as it moves toward the Twin Cities. There is a consistent signal for thunderstorms to develop along the cold front as it intersects the surface low/dryline in west-central Minnesota Monday afternoon. After some initial hail threat, these storms will likely become quickly linear along the front with an increasing severe wind threat. Strong low-level shear will also favor some line-embedded tornadoes, particularly if there area any areas within the line which become more favorably oriented to the low-level shear vector. Additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the dryline from southern Minnesota to west-central Iowa during the afternoon on Monday. 00Z CAM guidance is not overly bullish with convective development south of the MN/IA border, likely due to relatively weak convergence along the dryline in western Iowa from most high resolution guidance. However, the lack of convection from much of the guidance does not seem realistic considering the overall pattern. ECMWF/GFS/NAM are fairly consistent with a deepening surface low across Minnesota and moderate to strong height falls across the dryline. The southern extent of the previous Day 3 moderate risk corresponds well to the southern extent of the more favorable height falls, and convective precipitation signal from the ECMWF/GFS. Therefore, no adjustments to the southern extent of the moderate risk were deemed necessary. However the moderate risk was expanded slightly westward to account for the expectation for earlier convective initiation (19-21Z) than shown by most guidance. Given very strong effective shear and over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, expect any supercells which develop to become quickly severe with a threat for all severe weather hazards. As the surface low across Minnesota deepens the low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. This will elongate low-level hodographs and support an increasing tornado threat during the evening. STP values of 3 to 5 are common across much of the warm sector ahead of anticipated storms with some guidance indicating values of 7 to 10. Therefore, any mature, discrete supercells which can form and maintain within the open warm sector on Monday late afternoon/evening will pose a threat for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Eastern Kansas and northern Missouri to West Texas... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector could result in isolated to scattered supercell development Monday afternoon. A secondary area of higher severe weather probabilities may exist from portions of West Texas into southwest Oklahoma where the nocturnally strengthening low-level jet could support scattered supercell development Monday evening. However, weak height rises cast some doubt on storm coverage during the evening, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today. A strong jet will move through the base of the trough and begin to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains by evening. The primary surface low will deepen through the day over the central High Plains and move northeast across NE/SD late tonight. A secondary surface low is expected to develop near/west of the Black Hills during the afternoon. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward into the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to the southern Plains this morning, but will stream quickly northward later today and tonight in advance of the surface lows and dryline. ...Northern Great Plains... Large-scale ascent is expected to increase by evening across the northern Great Plains vicinity, in association with the approaching mid/upper-level trough and jet that will overspread the region. Richer low-level moisture will remain mostly south of this region through much of the day, but steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and increasing deep-layer shear will support development of a few supercells by evening with a threat of hail and damaging winds. The longevity of any surface-based storms is uncertain and could be limited, but some tornado threat could evolve with any supercells that can persist into the evening, as low-level moisture and shear continue to increase. Some clustering and upscale growth will be possible later tonight, with a threat for hail and damaging wind potentially spreading eastward across the Dakotas into MN before the end of the period. ...Central/southern High Plains... Conditionally, the warm-sector environment across the central and southern High Plains will become quite favorable for organized convection, with strong instability developing by late afternoon in conjunction with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear. However, despite diminishing MLCINH from afternoon into early evening near the dryline, there is only an inconsistent and relatively limited signal for initiation. One area of potential development will be from west-central NE into northwest KS, in the vicinity of the primary surface low. Guidance also has a somewhat stronger signal for development into parts of the southern High Plains, where strong heating/mixing may result in more favorable low-level convergence on the dryline. There is a relative minimum in signal for storm development from west-central/southwest KS toward the OK Panhandle, but any supercell that develops within this region would be within an increasingly volatile environment during the evening, and pose an all-hazards severe threat. Given the very favorable environment and at least some potential for isolated supercell development by early evening in the vicinity of the dryline, the Slight Risk has been expanded southward for the conditional all-hazards threat. It remains possible that portions of the Slight Risk may see little or no storm development. ..Dean/Halbert.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today. A strong jet will move through the base of the trough and begin to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains by evening. The primary surface low will deepen through the day over the central High Plains and move northeast across NE/SD late tonight. A secondary surface low is expected to develop near/west of the Black Hills during the afternoon. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward into the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to the southern Plains this morning, but will stream quickly northward later today and tonight in advance of the surface lows and dryline. ...Northern Great Plains... Large-scale ascent is expected to increase by evening across the northern Great Plains vicinity, in association with the approaching mid/upper-level trough and jet that will overspread the region. Richer low-level moisture will remain mostly south of this region through much of the day, but steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and increasing deep-layer shear will support development of a few supercells by evening with a threat of hail and damaging winds. The longevity of any surface-based storms is uncertain and could be limited, but some tornado threat could evolve with any supercells that can persist into the evening, as low-level moisture and shear continue to increase. Some clustering and upscale growth will be possible later tonight, with a threat for hail and damaging wind potentially spreading eastward across the Dakotas into MN before the end of the period. ...Central/southern High Plains... Conditionally, the warm-sector environment across the central and southern High Plains will become quite favorable for organized convection, with strong instability developing by late afternoon in conjunction with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear. However, despite diminishing MLCINH from afternoon into early evening near the dryline, there is only an inconsistent and relatively limited signal for initiation. One area of potential development will be from west-central NE into northwest KS, in the vicinity of the primary surface low. Guidance also has a somewhat stronger signal for development into parts of the southern High Plains, where strong heating/mixing may result in more favorable low-level convergence on the dryline. There is a relative minimum in signal for storm development from west-central/southwest KS toward the OK Panhandle, but any supercell that develops within this region would be within an increasingly volatile environment during the evening, and pose an all-hazards severe threat. Given the very favorable environment and at least some potential for isolated supercell development by early evening in the vicinity of the dryline, the Slight Risk has been expanded southward for the conditional all-hazards threat. It remains possible that portions of the Slight Risk may see little or no storm development. ..Dean/Halbert.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today. A strong jet will move through the base of the trough and begin to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains by evening. The primary surface low will deepen through the day over the central High Plains and move northeast across NE/SD late tonight. A secondary surface low is expected to develop near/west of the Black Hills during the afternoon. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward into the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to the southern Plains this morning, but will stream quickly northward later today and tonight in advance of the surface lows and dryline. ...Northern Great Plains... Large-scale ascent is expected to increase by evening across the northern Great Plains vicinity, in association with the approaching mid/upper-level trough and jet that will overspread the region. Richer low-level moisture will remain mostly south of this region through much of the day, but steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and increasing deep-layer shear will support development of a few supercells by evening with a threat of hail and damaging winds. The longevity of any surface-based storms is uncertain and could be limited, but some tornado threat could evolve with any supercells that can persist into the evening, as low-level moisture and shear continue to increase. Some clustering and upscale growth will be possible later tonight, with a threat for hail and damaging wind potentially spreading eastward across the Dakotas into MN before the end of the period. ...Central/southern High Plains... Conditionally, the warm-sector environment across the central and southern High Plains will become quite favorable for organized convection, with strong instability developing by late afternoon in conjunction with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear. However, despite diminishing MLCINH from afternoon into early evening near the dryline, there is only an inconsistent and relatively limited signal for initiation. One area of potential development will be from west-central NE into northwest KS, in the vicinity of the primary surface low. Guidance also has a somewhat stronger signal for development into parts of the southern High Plains, where strong heating/mixing may result in more favorable low-level convergence on the dryline. There is a relative minimum in signal for storm development from west-central/southwest KS toward the OK Panhandle, but any supercell that develops within this region would be within an increasingly volatile environment during the evening, and pose an all-hazards severe threat. Given the very favorable environment and at least some potential for isolated supercell development by early evening in the vicinity of the dryline, the Slight Risk has been expanded southward for the conditional all-hazards threat. It remains possible that portions of the Slight Risk may see little or no storm development. ..Dean/Halbert.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today. A strong jet will move through the base of the trough and begin to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains by evening. The primary surface low will deepen through the day over the central High Plains and move northeast across NE/SD late tonight. A secondary surface low is expected to develop near/west of the Black Hills during the afternoon. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward into the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to the southern Plains this morning, but will stream quickly northward later today and tonight in advance of the surface lows and dryline. ...Northern Great Plains... Large-scale ascent is expected to increase by evening across the northern Great Plains vicinity, in association with the approaching mid/upper-level trough and jet that will overspread the region. Richer low-level moisture will remain mostly south of this region through much of the day, but steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and increasing deep-layer shear will support development of a few supercells by evening with a threat of hail and damaging winds. The longevity of any surface-based storms is uncertain and could be limited, but some tornado threat could evolve with any supercells that can persist into the evening, as low-level moisture and shear continue to increase. Some clustering and upscale growth will be possible later tonight, with a threat for hail and damaging wind potentially spreading eastward across the Dakotas into MN before the end of the period. ...Central/southern High Plains... Conditionally, the warm-sector environment across the central and southern High Plains will become quite favorable for organized convection, with strong instability developing by late afternoon in conjunction with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear. However, despite diminishing MLCINH from afternoon into early evening near the dryline, there is only an inconsistent and relatively limited signal for initiation. One area of potential development will be from west-central NE into northwest KS, in the vicinity of the primary surface low. Guidance also has a somewhat stronger signal for development into parts of the southern High Plains, where strong heating/mixing may result in more favorable low-level convergence on the dryline. There is a relative minimum in signal for storm development from west-central/southwest KS toward the OK Panhandle, but any supercell that develops within this region would be within an increasingly volatile environment during the evening, and pose an all-hazards severe threat. Given the very favorable environment and at least some potential for isolated supercell development by early evening in the vicinity of the dryline, the Slight Risk has been expanded southward for the conditional all-hazards threat. It remains possible that portions of the Slight Risk may see little or no storm development. ..Dean/Halbert.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the western CONUS today. A strong jet will move through the base of the trough and begin to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains by evening. The primary surface low will deepen through the day over the central High Plains and move northeast across NE/SD late tonight. A secondary surface low is expected to develop near/west of the Black Hills during the afternoon. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward into the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to the southern Plains this morning, but will stream quickly northward later today and tonight in advance of the surface lows and dryline. ...Northern Great Plains... Large-scale ascent is expected to increase by evening across the northern Great Plains vicinity, in association with the approaching mid/upper-level trough and jet that will overspread the region. Richer low-level moisture will remain mostly south of this region through much of the day, but steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and increasing deep-layer shear will support development of a few supercells by evening with a threat of hail and damaging winds. The longevity of any surface-based storms is uncertain and could be limited, but some tornado threat could evolve with any supercells that can persist into the evening, as low-level moisture and shear continue to increase. Some clustering and upscale growth will be possible later tonight, with a threat for hail and damaging wind potentially spreading eastward across the Dakotas into MN before the end of the period. ...Central/southern High Plains... Conditionally, the warm-sector environment across the central and southern High Plains will become quite favorable for organized convection, with strong instability developing by late afternoon in conjunction with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear. However, despite diminishing MLCINH from afternoon into early evening near the dryline, there is only an inconsistent and relatively limited signal for initiation. One area of potential development will be from west-central NE into northwest KS, in the vicinity of the primary surface low. Guidance also has a somewhat stronger signal for development into parts of the southern High Plains, where strong heating/mixing may result in more favorable low-level convergence on the dryline. There is a relative minimum in signal for storm development from west-central/southwest KS toward the OK Panhandle, but any supercell that develops within this region would be within an increasingly volatile environment during the evening, and pose an all-hazards severe threat. Given the very favorable environment and at least some potential for isolated supercell development by early evening in the vicinity of the dryline, the Slight Risk has been expanded southward for the conditional all-hazards threat. It remains possible that portions of the Slight Risk may see little or no storm development. ..Dean/Halbert.. 04/27/2025 Read more

WW 0175 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 175 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-009-011-015-019-025-037-041-047-270340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES CURRY DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TXC003-165-270340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS GAINES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 175 TORNADO NM TX 262050Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon into the evening. Supercells capable of large to very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes will be the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Tucumcari NM to 45 miles south southwest of Hobbs NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0177 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 177 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 177 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC103-135-301-329-371-389-461-475-495-270340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRANE ECTOR LOVING MIDLAND PECOS REEVES UPTON WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 177 SEVERE TSTM TX 262245Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 545 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated supercells will pose mainly a large hail risk through early/mid-evening across the region. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Wink TX to 40 miles southeast of Midland TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 175...WW 176... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0176 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 176 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ELD TO 30 E TXK TO 30 SW RUE. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 176 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-103-270340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK OUACHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 176 TORNADO AR OK TX 262145Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Southeast Oklahoma Far Northeast Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Environment will remain sufficiently favorable for some supercell storms through at least early evening across the region, which includes some tornado potential. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Mcalester OK to 40 miles south of Hot Springs AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 175... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0573 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 175... FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico Concerning...Tornado Watch 175... Valid 270013Z - 270215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 175 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat across WW 175 will continue into the early evening, particularly in the vicinity of two isolated supercells near Roswell and Fort Sumner, NM. DISCUSSION...A pair of rightward-moving supercells have developed along and east of a dryline in eastern New Mexico. Recent trends in the KFDX VAD wind profiles show increasing low-level curvature of the hodograph, which should continue to enlarge this evening with the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet. Easterly surface winds that are antiparallel to the westerly storm-motion vectors will result in an overall enhancement of the storm-relative inflow near the surface, supporting robust updraft development and maintenance into the early evening hours. These supercells will be capable of 60+ MPH winds, 2.0+ inch hail, and tornadoes. Short-term forecast guidance does suggest the boundary layer will begin to stabilize with eastward extent after 01Z, limiting some of the tornado threat after dark, but persistent mesocyclones fed by strong storm-relative inflow may be able to persist a little while longer after dark. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32630435 33430472 33950486 34640497 34960502 35390467 35470425 35360379 35100332 34660304 34140293 33510280 33150282 32840292 32610323 32500389 32630435 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0175 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 175 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-009-011-015-019-025-037-041-047-270240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES CURRY DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TXC003-165-270240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS GAINES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0177 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 177 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 177 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC103-135-301-329-371-389-461-475-495-270240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRANE ECTOR LOVING MIDLAND PECOS REEVES UPTON WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0176 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 176 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SHV TO 15 E TXK TO 20 NNE DEQ TO 10 ESE FSM. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 176 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-027-057-061-073-097-099-103-109-113-127-270240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE POLK SCOTT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more