Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday into Monday night, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt, upper-level trough will consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, moving east-northeast from the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest. A belt of 70+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies will be present from the central Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley on Monday afternoon. Primary surface cyclone should deepen slightly during the day as it advances from eastern SD to the Upper Great Lakes. A dryline will extend from the Mid-MO Valley south-southwest into west TX. A cold front will overtake the dryline as it surges southeast Monday night. ...Upper Midwest... After coordination with affected WFOs, primary adjustments have occurred along the southern extent of the severe probabilities to account for a more conditional, but still potentially significant severe threat. An arc of elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from ND across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated large hail will be possible with these morning storms as they move east-northeast. Additional elevated storms will redevelop towards midday/early afternoon to the northeast of the aforementioned surface low. This will slow the advancement of the surface warm front into central MN, but strengthen differential surface heating across the baroclinic zone, with greater warming nosing north from NE into southeast SD. Surface-based storm development should occur by mid-afternoon across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into southwest/west-central MN along the dryline to surface low. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, but cells may congeal into linear clusters, especially near/across the warm front. A mix of hail/wind/embedded tornadoes is likely, with the latter increasing with southern/eastern extent during late afternoon owing to stronger low-level shear across southeast MN/northeast IA into western WI. Open warm-sector storm development ahead of the dryline is nebulous with low confidence on the degree of ascent ahead of the dryline given the synoptic setup. Conditionally, both the buoyancy/shear parameter space is volatile and supportive of potential for multiple long-track, tornadic supercells. Timing of mid-level height falls tends to favor the evening period after peak heating but CAM signals, outside of the 12Z FV3, are sparse. Greater large-scale ascent appears focused from far northeast IA into WI. This region remains the most favorable for discrete warm-sector development during the evening. Otherwise, upstream linear clusters from southern/eastern MN will likely spread across northern/central WI into parts of Upper MI with a mixed mode of all hazards persisting, before eventually weakening overnight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO to west TX... Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but subtle mid-level height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector should result in isolated to scattered supercell development during the late afternoon to evening. This appears most likely across western north TX into southwest OK where greater boundary-layer heating and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet are anticipated. ..Grams.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Elevated highlights were added across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where strong offshore flow within a post-frontal regime is ongoing. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph combined with relative humidity falling into the 25-35 percent range are expected through the early afternoon before winds subside late afternoon. Rainfall over the last 48 hours was spotty so pockets of receptive fuels remain, primarily in the New Jersey Pinelands. ...Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Significant fire weather threat remains across the Southwest with swath of Extremely Critical highlights in place across much of southern and central New Mexico. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Utah and far western Colorado to account for some lower elevation receptive fuels. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS Valley towards daybreak Monday. Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO border through early evening before developing northeast into central SD late tonight. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD. Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN late. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE. The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland, Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm coverage) late this afternoon into the evening. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity in this region. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025 Read more