Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows modest upper ridging between a pair of well-defined cyclones, one centered over NV and the other centered over northern NY/VT. The NV cyclone forecast to shift slightly eastward throughout the day as a shortwave trough, and associated jet streak, rotate through its base. Moderate to strong southwesterly flow associated with this shortwave will spread northeastward from the Southwest into central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Recent surface analysis reveals an expansive area of high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes covering much of the eastern CONUS. A broad area of low pressure exists over the intermountain West, with several embedded lows. A tight surface pressure gradient exists between these two features across the Plains, and the resultant moderate low-level flow will contribute to northward moisture advection throughout the period. Any large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave progressing around the NV cyclone will remain west of this better low-level moisture (and associated buoyancy) until later tonight, when it reaches the northern High Plains. Ample buoyancy and moisture will exist across the central and southern High Plains, but the lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent will result in a more conditional severe thunderstorm potential. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A deepening lee trough is forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis in the far eastern MT/WY border vicinity by late this afternoon. Strong boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the region, promoting airmass destabilization but also likely keeping dewpoints in the 40s across much of the region. Convergence along several boundaries across the region, including a surface trough extending across southeast MT and the lee trough along the eastern WY border vicinity, amid this destabilized airmass will result in thunderstorm development, particularly during the late afternoon/early evening as increasing large-scale ascent complements the low-level convergence. An eastward storm motion should take any storms that develop in better low-level moisture over time, with a strengthening low-level jet helping to maintain favorably moist low-level inflow. Even with this modest improvement in thermodynamics, nocturnal stabilization should result in storms becoming more elevated over time. Primary threat across this region are large hail and damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Mid 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Permian Basin and the general expectation is for low-level moisture to increase throughout the day. 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across all but far western KS by 21Z and into much of central NE by 00Z. Strong heating is anticipated across this region as well, resulting in an area of moderate to strong buoyancy from southwest NE into west TX by the late afternoon. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low and convection-allowing guidance has limited utility. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level coverage will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms today. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. Strong downdrafts are possible as well. A westward shift of the dryline and strengthening low-level jet will support an increase tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). The kinematic environment improves notably across the TX Panhandle, western KS, and western NE between 00Z and 06Z, so any storms that are ongoing may be able to organize considerably before eventually weakening due to nocturnal stabilization. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows modest upper ridging between a pair of well-defined cyclones, one centered over NV and the other centered over northern NY/VT. The NV cyclone forecast to shift slightly eastward throughout the day as a shortwave trough, and associated jet streak, rotate through its base. Moderate to strong southwesterly flow associated with this shortwave will spread northeastward from the Southwest into central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Recent surface analysis reveals an expansive area of high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes covering much of the eastern CONUS. A broad area of low pressure exists over the intermountain West, with several embedded lows. A tight surface pressure gradient exists between these two features across the Plains, and the resultant moderate low-level flow will contribute to northward moisture advection throughout the period. Any large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave progressing around the NV cyclone will remain west of this better low-level moisture (and associated buoyancy) until later tonight, when it reaches the northern High Plains. Ample buoyancy and moisture will exist across the central and southern High Plains, but the lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent will result in a more conditional severe thunderstorm potential. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A deepening lee trough is forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis in the far eastern MT/WY border vicinity by late this afternoon. Strong boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the region, promoting airmass destabilization but also likely keeping dewpoints in the 40s across much of the region. Convergence along several boundaries across the region, including a surface trough extending across southeast MT and the lee trough along the eastern WY border vicinity, amid this destabilized airmass will result in thunderstorm development, particularly during the late afternoon/early evening as increasing large-scale ascent complements the low-level convergence. An eastward storm motion should take any storms that develop in better low-level moisture over time, with a strengthening low-level jet helping to maintain favorably moist low-level inflow. Even with this modest improvement in thermodynamics, nocturnal stabilization should result in storms becoming more elevated over time. Primary threat across this region are large hail and damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Mid 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Permian Basin and the general expectation is for low-level moisture to increase throughout the day. 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across all but far western KS by 21Z and into much of central NE by 00Z. Strong heating is anticipated across this region as well, resulting in an area of moderate to strong buoyancy from southwest NE into west TX by the late afternoon. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low and convection-allowing guidance has limited utility. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level coverage will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms today. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. Strong downdrafts are possible as well. A westward shift of the dryline and strengthening low-level jet will support an increase tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). The kinematic environment improves notably across the TX Panhandle, western KS, and western NE between 00Z and 06Z, so any storms that are ongoing may be able to organize considerably before eventually weakening due to nocturnal stabilization. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows modest upper ridging between a pair of well-defined cyclones, one centered over NV and the other centered over northern NY/VT. The NV cyclone forecast to shift slightly eastward throughout the day as a shortwave trough, and associated jet streak, rotate through its base. Moderate to strong southwesterly flow associated with this shortwave will spread northeastward from the Southwest into central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Recent surface analysis reveals an expansive area of high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes covering much of the eastern CONUS. A broad area of low pressure exists over the intermountain West, with several embedded lows. A tight surface pressure gradient exists between these two features across the Plains, and the resultant moderate low-level flow will contribute to northward moisture advection throughout the period. Any large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave progressing around the NV cyclone will remain west of this better low-level moisture (and associated buoyancy) until later tonight, when it reaches the northern High Plains. Ample buoyancy and moisture will exist across the central and southern High Plains, but the lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent will result in a more conditional severe thunderstorm potential. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A deepening lee trough is forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis in the far eastern MT/WY border vicinity by late this afternoon. Strong boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the region, promoting airmass destabilization but also likely keeping dewpoints in the 40s across much of the region. Convergence along several boundaries across the region, including a surface trough extending across southeast MT and the lee trough along the eastern WY border vicinity, amid this destabilized airmass will result in thunderstorm development, particularly during the late afternoon/early evening as increasing large-scale ascent complements the low-level convergence. An eastward storm motion should take any storms that develop in better low-level moisture over time, with a strengthening low-level jet helping to maintain favorably moist low-level inflow. Even with this modest improvement in thermodynamics, nocturnal stabilization should result in storms becoming more elevated over time. Primary threat across this region are large hail and damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Mid 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Permian Basin and the general expectation is for low-level moisture to increase throughout the day. 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across all but far western KS by 21Z and into much of central NE by 00Z. Strong heating is anticipated across this region as well, resulting in an area of moderate to strong buoyancy from southwest NE into west TX by the late afternoon. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low and convection-allowing guidance has limited utility. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level coverage will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms today. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. Strong downdrafts are possible as well. A westward shift of the dryline and strengthening low-level jet will support an increase tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). The kinematic environment improves notably across the TX Panhandle, western KS, and western NE between 00Z and 06Z, so any storms that are ongoing may be able to organize considerably before eventually weakening due to nocturnal stabilization. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows modest upper ridging between a pair of well-defined cyclones, one centered over NV and the other centered over northern NY/VT. The NV cyclone forecast to shift slightly eastward throughout the day as a shortwave trough, and associated jet streak, rotate through its base. Moderate to strong southwesterly flow associated with this shortwave will spread northeastward from the Southwest into central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Recent surface analysis reveals an expansive area of high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes covering much of the eastern CONUS. A broad area of low pressure exists over the intermountain West, with several embedded lows. A tight surface pressure gradient exists between these two features across the Plains, and the resultant moderate low-level flow will contribute to northward moisture advection throughout the period. Any large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave progressing around the NV cyclone will remain west of this better low-level moisture (and associated buoyancy) until later tonight, when it reaches the northern High Plains. Ample buoyancy and moisture will exist across the central and southern High Plains, but the lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent will result in a more conditional severe thunderstorm potential. ...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas... A deepening lee trough is forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis in the far eastern MT/WY border vicinity by late this afternoon. Strong boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the region, promoting airmass destabilization but also likely keeping dewpoints in the 40s across much of the region. Convergence along several boundaries across the region, including a surface trough extending across southeast MT and the lee trough along the eastern WY border vicinity, amid this destabilized airmass will result in thunderstorm development, particularly during the late afternoon/early evening as increasing large-scale ascent complements the low-level convergence. An eastward storm motion should take any storms that develop in better low-level moisture over time, with a strengthening low-level jet helping to maintain favorably moist low-level inflow. Even with this modest improvement in thermodynamics, nocturnal stabilization should result in storms becoming more elevated over time. Primary threat across this region are large hail and damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Mid 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Permian Basin and the general expectation is for low-level moisture to increase throughout the day. 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across all but far western KS by 21Z and into much of central NE by 00Z. Strong heating is anticipated across this region as well, resulting in an area of moderate to strong buoyancy from southwest NE into west TX by the late afternoon. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective initiation. With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low and convection-allowing guidance has limited utility. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be warmest, but low-level coverage will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms today. The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the primary risk initially. Strong downdrafts are possible as well. A westward shift of the dryline and strengthening low-level jet will support an increase tornado threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). The kinematic environment improves notably across the TX Panhandle, western KS, and western NE between 00Z and 06Z, so any storms that are ongoing may be able to organize considerably before eventually weakening due to nocturnal stabilization. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A lingering mid-level trough over the western U.S. (and its associated southwest flow), along with deep boundary layer mixing, will result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of central and eastern New Mexico on Monday. ...Central and Eastern New Mexico... With receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles) and dry, windy conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico, at least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. 00Z HREF guidance suggests that there is potential for Critical conditions, particularly across central New Mexico, but there is enough ensemble spread in the HREF to preclude adding highlights at this time. While the dry and windy conditions are likely to occur further east into the Texas Panhandle, recent wetting rainfall over the last several days should limit fire danger. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday - North Central to Northeast Texas... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. Forecast guidance still shows some timing difference which affect the location of the surface low and thus the region of the greatest severe weather threat. However, at this time, the area along and south of the Red River to east-central Texas remains the most likely location to receive some severe weather regardless of the exact solution. Moderate instability and an uncapped environment will support storm development during the day on Wednesday. At this time, it appears widespread convection amid a very moist profile could result in HP storms in close proximity with eventual growth into a MCS. Forecast soundings show favorable low-level shear which would support some tornado threat. However, the aforementioned storm mode concerns could limit this threat despite the favorable wind profile. ...Day 5/Thursday - Mid Mississippi Valley... As a mid-level trough advances from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Thursday, a surface low will also develop and continue northeast. The strength and location of this surface low are uncertain at this time due to differing evolution of the mid-level pattern. Warm-sector destabilization also remains highly variable. If a solution such as the GFS solution verifies, then a greater severe weather threat will likely exist across parts of Tennessee and northern AL/MS into parts of the Ohio Valley. However, if the ECMWF instability verifies, the likelihood of widespread severe weather goes down significantly. No probabilities have been added for Day 5 yet, but if details become more clear and favorable, probabilities may eventually be needed. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday - North Central to Northeast Texas... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. Forecast guidance still shows some timing difference which affect the location of the surface low and thus the region of the greatest severe weather threat. However, at this time, the area along and south of the Red River to east-central Texas remains the most likely location to receive some severe weather regardless of the exact solution. Moderate instability and an uncapped environment will support storm development during the day on Wednesday. At this time, it appears widespread convection amid a very moist profile could result in HP storms in close proximity with eventual growth into a MCS. Forecast soundings show favorable low-level shear which would support some tornado threat. However, the aforementioned storm mode concerns could limit this threat despite the favorable wind profile. ...Day 5/Thursday - Mid Mississippi Valley... As a mid-level trough advances from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Thursday, a surface low will also develop and continue northeast. The strength and location of this surface low are uncertain at this time due to differing evolution of the mid-level pattern. Warm-sector destabilization also remains highly variable. If a solution such as the GFS solution verifies, then a greater severe weather threat will likely exist across parts of Tennessee and northern AL/MS into parts of the Ohio Valley. However, if the ECMWF instability verifies, the likelihood of widespread severe weather goes down significantly. No probabilities have been added for Day 5 yet, but if details become more clear and favorable, probabilities may eventually be needed. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday - North Central to Northeast Texas... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. Forecast guidance still shows some timing difference which affect the location of the surface low and thus the region of the greatest severe weather threat. However, at this time, the area along and south of the Red River to east-central Texas remains the most likely location to receive some severe weather regardless of the exact solution. Moderate instability and an uncapped environment will support storm development during the day on Wednesday. At this time, it appears widespread convection amid a very moist profile could result in HP storms in close proximity with eventual growth into a MCS. Forecast soundings show favorable low-level shear which would support some tornado threat. However, the aforementioned storm mode concerns could limit this threat despite the favorable wind profile. ...Day 5/Thursday - Mid Mississippi Valley... As a mid-level trough advances from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Thursday, a surface low will also develop and continue northeast. The strength and location of this surface low are uncertain at this time due to differing evolution of the mid-level pattern. Warm-sector destabilization also remains highly variable. If a solution such as the GFS solution verifies, then a greater severe weather threat will likely exist across parts of Tennessee and northern AL/MS into parts of the Ohio Valley. However, if the ECMWF instability verifies, the likelihood of widespread severe weather goes down significantly. No probabilities have been added for Day 5 yet, but if details become more clear and favorable, probabilities may eventually be needed. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday - North Central to Northeast Texas... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. Forecast guidance still shows some timing difference which affect the location of the surface low and thus the region of the greatest severe weather threat. However, at this time, the area along and south of the Red River to east-central Texas remains the most likely location to receive some severe weather regardless of the exact solution. Moderate instability and an uncapped environment will support storm development during the day on Wednesday. At this time, it appears widespread convection amid a very moist profile could result in HP storms in close proximity with eventual growth into a MCS. Forecast soundings show favorable low-level shear which would support some tornado threat. However, the aforementioned storm mode concerns could limit this threat despite the favorable wind profile. ...Day 5/Thursday - Mid Mississippi Valley... As a mid-level trough advances from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Thursday, a surface low will also develop and continue northeast. The strength and location of this surface low are uncertain at this time due to differing evolution of the mid-level pattern. Warm-sector destabilization also remains highly variable. If a solution such as the GFS solution verifies, then a greater severe weather threat will likely exist across parts of Tennessee and northern AL/MS into parts of the Ohio Valley. However, if the ECMWF instability verifies, the likelihood of widespread severe weather goes down significantly. No probabilities have been added for Day 5 yet, but if details become more clear and favorable, probabilities may eventually be needed. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a frontal zone that extends from the southern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes. ...Discussion... A cold front will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon and across New York Tuesday evening. Strong instability but weaker shear will be present along the frontal zone in Indiana and Ohio, with stronger flow, but weaker instability across New York. Therefore, strong wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat will exist across New York and western Pennsylvania with a greater hail threat likely across Ohio and Indiana. Farther west across the Lower Ohio Valley and into the Ozarks, the front will be more stationary. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints will be present south of this front which should allow for moderate to strong instability by Tuesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not that strong, but should be sufficient for some multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two. Persistent isentropic ascent should support thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the front, likely across Oklahoma, on Tuesday. South and west of this morning/early afternoon activity is where the best environment should be on Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across West Texas and into Northwest Texas Tuesday afternoon. As mid-level flow strengthens ahead of the approaching trough, effective shear will increase through the day. The combination of height falls along the dryline and a strengthening low-level jet near sunset should support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts by late afternoon to evening. ..Bentley.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a frontal zone that extends from the southern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes. ...Discussion... A cold front will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon and across New York Tuesday evening. Strong instability but weaker shear will be present along the frontal zone in Indiana and Ohio, with stronger flow, but weaker instability across New York. Therefore, strong wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat will exist across New York and western Pennsylvania with a greater hail threat likely across Ohio and Indiana. Farther west across the Lower Ohio Valley and into the Ozarks, the front will be more stationary. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints will be present south of this front which should allow for moderate to strong instability by Tuesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not that strong, but should be sufficient for some multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two. Persistent isentropic ascent should support thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the front, likely across Oklahoma, on Tuesday. South and west of this morning/early afternoon activity is where the best environment should be on Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across West Texas and into Northwest Texas Tuesday afternoon. As mid-level flow strengthens ahead of the approaching trough, effective shear will increase through the day. The combination of height falls along the dryline and a strengthening low-level jet near sunset should support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts by late afternoon to evening. ..Bentley.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a frontal zone that extends from the southern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes. ...Discussion... A cold front will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon and across New York Tuesday evening. Strong instability but weaker shear will be present along the frontal zone in Indiana and Ohio, with stronger flow, but weaker instability across New York. Therefore, strong wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat will exist across New York and western Pennsylvania with a greater hail threat likely across Ohio and Indiana. Farther west across the Lower Ohio Valley and into the Ozarks, the front will be more stationary. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints will be present south of this front which should allow for moderate to strong instability by Tuesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not that strong, but should be sufficient for some multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two. Persistent isentropic ascent should support thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the front, likely across Oklahoma, on Tuesday. South and west of this morning/early afternoon activity is where the best environment should be on Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across West Texas and into Northwest Texas Tuesday afternoon. As mid-level flow strengthens ahead of the approaching trough, effective shear will increase through the day. The combination of height falls along the dryline and a strengthening low-level jet near sunset should support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts by late afternoon to evening. ..Bentley.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a frontal zone that extends from the southern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes. ...Discussion... A cold front will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon and across New York Tuesday evening. Strong instability but weaker shear will be present along the frontal zone in Indiana and Ohio, with stronger flow, but weaker instability across New York. Therefore, strong wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat will exist across New York and western Pennsylvania with a greater hail threat likely across Ohio and Indiana. Farther west across the Lower Ohio Valley and into the Ozarks, the front will be more stationary. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints will be present south of this front which should allow for moderate to strong instability by Tuesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not that strong, but should be sufficient for some multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two. Persistent isentropic ascent should support thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the front, likely across Oklahoma, on Tuesday. South and west of this morning/early afternoon activity is where the best environment should be on Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across West Texas and into Northwest Texas Tuesday afternoon. As mid-level flow strengthens ahead of the approaching trough, effective shear will increase through the day. The combination of height falls along the dryline and a strengthening low-level jet near sunset should support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts by late afternoon to evening. ..Bentley.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... With a mid-level trough translating across the Intermountain West, and a lee cyclone deepening over the central High Plains, strong surface winds and deep boundary layer mixing are forecast across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Critical to Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across much of southern and central New Mexico, into portions of far West Texas. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Widespread 30+ MPH winds and 5-10% relative humidity is anticipated over much of southern, central, and even portions of eastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are anticipated further east of the current highlights, recent wetting rainfall in eastern New Mexico over the last several days will serve to limit the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire ignition and spread. Therefore, Critical and Extremely Critical highlights have been confined to where fuels guidance shows ERCs exceeding the 90th annual percentile, primarily across southern and central New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Elevated highlights have been maintained over eastern Colorado, where dormant/fine fuels are anticipated to be receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with an environment characterized by 10% relative humidity and 15-20 MPH winds. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred across eastern Colorado, with areas receiving 0.75-2.0 inches of rainfall in the last 48 hours. The Elevated highlights in this update reflect the driest areas receiving little to no rainfall. ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more